Lingering questions about the misfire in 2020, in which voter support for then-President Donald Trump was understated in final pre-election polls, suggest that troubles in accurately surveying presidential elections could be deeper and more profound than previously recognized.
With all early voting results counted, Sheriff Rick Staly had an insurmountable lead to win re-election to his second term, as did County Commissioner Donald O’Brien. Andy Dance, the school board member, also had an insurmountable lead to win the County Commission seat Charlie Ericksen opted not to contest.
At the current rate, and with mail ballots still being dropped off, Flagler could end the day with 75,000 ballots cast out of 92,000 eligible voters, for a turnout of 81 percent–close to the records of the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Biden’s lead in none of the key battleground states is outside the margin of error and national polling is only reflecting the concentration of Biden votes in already-blue states, and the migration of some Trump votes in still-red states. The polls have it right, but Trump’s road to re-election is actually less daunting than presumed.
Flagler County Elections Supervisor Kaiti Lenhart is asking registered voters to take a five-question online survey about why and where they like to vote, grist for further voter outreach in the future.
Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson have built solid leads among independents, women and minorities, with Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott leading only among white men.
Incumbents have clear leads in County Commission races, newcomers John Tipton and Jack Howell posted strong showings in Palm Coast races, and school board races have mixed messages.
Clinton’s 46-45 advantage over Trump in the last Quinnipiac University poll before Election Day is the same lead she had a week ago, and is within the poll’s margin of error.
In Florida, Quinnipiac found that she is ahead by a substantial 48-42 lead among voters who have already cast ballots. That lead grows to double digits among Ohio and North Carolina early voters.
Clinton leads Trump by a margin of 46 percent to 43 percent in the poll, which was conducted from Friday to Sunday. That is down from a six-point lead in an FAU poll released Oct. 13. Trump was up by 2 percentage points in an August poll.