Catastrophic flooding that has claimed more than 50 lives in Texas came amid concerns about staffing levels at the NWS, after the Trump administration fired hundreds of meteorologists this year as part of Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts. The NWS Austin/San Antonio office’s warning coordination meteorologist announced in April that he was retiring early due to the funding cuts, leading to speculation that vacancies could have impacted forecasters’ response.
Weather and Climate
Trump Is Shutting Down 3 Key Weather Satellites Ahead of Peak Storm Season
On June 25, 2025, the Trump administration issued a service change notice announcing that the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, DMSP, and the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center would terminate data collection, processing and distribution of all DMSP data by July 31. The satellite data helps meteorologists create weather forecasts that keep planes and ships safe and prepare countries for a potential hurricane landfall.
Rain on Independence Day? Worst Expected in Mid-Afternoon, Less Likely During Fireworks
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is predicting that the highest probability of rain in the Flagler Beach-Palm Coast region will be from 3 to 6 p.m., with a 6 percent chance at 3, falling to a 45 percent chance at 6 and 30 percent by 9 p.m.
Heavy Rainfall May Dampen July 4 Weekend
The National Weather Service is cautioning that Palm Coast, Flagler County and Northeast Florida are in for a soaking over the Independence Day weekend, with local accumulations of several inches possible.
Governors Pick Up Where Presidents Abandoned Fight Against Climate Change
In recent years, the real progress against climate change has been outside the rooms where the official U.N. negotiations are held, not inside. In these meetings, the leaders of states and provinces talk about what they are doing to reduce greenhouse gases and prepare for worsening climate disasters. Many bilateral and multilateral agreements have sprung up like mushrooms from these side conversations.
Flagler Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord Warns of a Different Disaster Ahead: the Vanishing of FEMA Money
With or without FEMA, Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord cautioned, local governments must be prepared to assume more costs of recovery than they have in the past, especially if the federal government declares fewer disasters, as appears to be the plan. Fewer declarations will mean far less reimbursements and far fewer grants for innumerable projects and services local governments depend on in the recovery phase of what are becoming routine climate disasters.
NOAA Cuts Are Putting Our Coastal Communities At Risk
For Americans on the Gulf or Atlantic coasts, the daily weather forecast always comes with a constant thrum of worry — any small disturbance in the Atlantic has the potential to evolve into a major storm. And as hurricane season gets underway, the palace intrigue, staffing cuts at NOAA, and general upheaval of national leadership could have dire effects for people on these coasts.
17 Named Storms Predicted for Hurricane Season
Colorado State University researchers Thursday forecast 17 named storms during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, with nine reaching hurricane status and four becoming major storms. That would make the 2025 season close to the 2024 season, which included three hurricanes making landfall in Florida.
Why Forecasting A Tornado’s Strike Zone Is Still Elusive
Pinpointing exactly where a tornado will touch down – like those that hit states including Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama on March 14 and 15 – still relies heavily on seeing the storms developing on radar.
Ag Commissioner on Heat-Related Farm Deaths: Blame Humans, Not Climate
Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson told state lawmakers Tuesday morning that human error was to blame for heat-related deaths on farms, which he described as few and far between. Florida’s sweltering heat became one of the hottest topics for lawmakers last year as the Republican-led Legislature passed a law prohibiting local governments from enacting their own heat-safety protections for employees.
Sorry Palm Coast, No Snow For You: Winter Storm Warning Boundaries Are North and West of Flagler
If you’re hoping to see a few snow flurries as a rare winter storm barrels through the Gulf of Mexico, you’ll have to go north and west of Flagler County even as winter storm warning boundaries were extended southward to include all of Duval and Clay counties overnight. Putnam and St. Johns have a winter storm advisory.
Global Temperatures Passed Critical 1.5°C Milestone for First Time in 2024
2024 was the first year on record with a global average temperature exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. All continents except Australasia and Antarctica experienced their hottest year on record, with 11 months of the year exceeding the 1.5°C level. Global temperatures have been at record levels – and still rising – for several years now. The previous hottest year on record was 2023.
How the Santa Ana Winds Fuel California’s Deadly Fires
Thousands of homes and other structures, including several schools, had burned by Jan. 9, and at least five people had died. Officials urged more than 180,000 residents to evacuate at the height of the fires. With the winds so strong, there was little firefighters could do to control the flames. Here’s what causes extreme winds like this in Southern California, and why they create such a dangerous fire risk.
Kevin Guthrie and UF Show Off AI-Powered Disaster Information Dissemination Service
The University of Florida, in partnership with government agencies, has showcased an artificial intelligence-driven disaster warning system leveraging radio waves — a program Florida Department of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said is guaranteed to save lives.
Radar in Bunnell Could Vastly Improve Dangerous Weather Forecasting–If Only Forecasters Could Access It
Since June a 330-pound radar with an estimated value of $120,000 to $150,000 has sat atop a 100-foot monopole at the Emergency Operations Center in Bunnell, one of only three like it in the state. It could vastly improve forecasting of dangerous weather such as imminent tornadoes. Except that the National Weather Service has not been able to access its data.
Hurricane Milton’s Flagler Path in Pictures: Flooding, Beach Erosion, Damaged Roads and Roofs, but Nothing Disastrous
Hurricane Milton barreled through the midsection of the Florida Peninsula Thursday morning, lashing Flagler County with tropical-storm-force winds (and a few hurricane-force gusts) and up top 19 inches of rain in parts of the county. But damage overall was mostly minor despite floodwaters. Here’s an album in pictures and video.
From Charley to Milton, 20 Years of Hurricanes and Florida Learned Nothing
Back in 2004, the Florida Department of Community Affairs ensured that evacuation times from flood-prone zones known as Coastal High Hazard Areas took less than a day. The law said the development density in those areas should not make the evacuees need more than 16 hours to get away from a Category 5 storm. Then Rick Scott and the Legislature killed the agency. Evacuation times have been getting worse, making life on those islands more dangerous.
With Hurricane Milton’s Worst Ahead, Torrential Rains Raise Flooding Concerns in Palm Coast and Close Roads
Torrential rain in Palm Coast ahead of Hurricane Milton has “severely overwhelmed” the city’s stormwater system. Milton’s advance rain bands have led to a few street closures in the B Section, to city crews special-delivering sand bags to some residents, and to an alert from the city to residents to minimize water usage as the stormwater system is being overwhelmed by precipitation–with the worst yet to come.
Evacuations Ordered for Entire Barrier Island and Much of Mainland East of I-95, Curfew Wednesday Night
Hurricane Milton’s projected path has remained remarkably steady with very slight variations north or south, but with models agreeing on landfall in the Tampa Bay area after midnight Thursday and now mostly merging to agree on a path along or a bit south of I-4, toward Merritt Island and the Space Coast, where it would exit, still as a hurricane, Thursday afternoon. Tropical-storm force winds ranging between 40 and 70 mph are expected in Flagler County, with the possibility of hurricane-force winds especially on the barrier island.
Milton Could Be Among ‘Most Destructive Hurricanes on Record,’ NHC Warns; Flagler Readies for Flooding; Cancellations Multiply
Hurricane Milton, now a monster storm, had sustained winds of 180 miles per hour, making it one of the most intense and dangerous hurricanes ever recorded. It had crashed NHC’s site in early evening Monday, as Florida’s midsection was bracing for a direct hit in the Tampa Bay area and Flagler County was preparing for severe impacts and potential hurricane-force winds that it did not record even during Hurricanes Mathew and Ian in 2016 and 2017.
Ahead of Hurricane Milton, State Emergency Director Guthrie Warns of Possibly ‘Largest Evacuation’ Since 2017
With Hurricane Milton expected to reach Category 3 or 4 force before hitting Florida in the middle of the week, state Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie on Sunday urged residents to immediately start putting storm plans in place, which could include evacuating further inland.
Hurricane Milton, Gaining Force Quicker, Is Barreling Toward Florida’s I-4 Corridor and Flagler By Midweek
Eleven days after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend, Tropical Storm Milton, expected to be Hurricane Milton by tonight, is rapidly gaining strength and is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday. It is mobilizing Florida from Tampa Bay through the north-central midsection of the state, including Flagler County, where severe conditions and impacts are expected. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in Flagler County late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rainfall potential over the next five days for coastal Flagler County, including Flagler Beach and Beverly Beach, is in the 8 to 12-inch range, and in the 6 to 8 inch range for inland Flagler.
Sen. Rick Scott Finally Concedes: Climate Is ‘Clearly Changing’
Florida U.S. Sen. Rick Scott acknowledged Friday in the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Helene that the climate is “clearly changing,” adding: “We’ve gotta figure out how do we react to that.” Scott travelled through parts of the state speaking to law enforcement and first responders a day after the Category 4 hurricane caused record storm surge up the west coast and Big Bend region of Florida, with at least seven deaths in the state attributed to the storm.
‘Catastrophic’ Helene Landfall Projected for Big Bend This Evening, But Limited Outer-Band Impacts in Flagler-Palm Coast
In Northeast Florida, including Flagler County, outer rain bands will increase in frequency today, with stronger winds arriving after noon and local impacts increasing through Thursday night, the National Weather Service in Jacksonville says. But rain totals in coastal Flagler and Palm Coast are expected to be significantly less than in inland Flagler and counties further west and southwest: forecast models have coastal Flagler and Palm Coast receiving less than one inch, though localized thunderstorms may produce more. The flash flooding potential in Flagler is in the 5 to 15 percent range.
Helene Will Be Major Hurricane by Landfall in Big Bend, Flagler at Edge of Concerns; Expect Messy Thursday
Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to strengthen and move rapidly, becoming a major Category 3 hurricane–with winds above 111 miles per hour–before landfall along Florida’s Big Bend and Nature Coasts on Thursday evening. Helene will become very large, so impacts will be experienced far from the center. The potential for direct impacts is increasing for northeast Florida, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, with local impacts including heavy rain and some flooding possible beginning on Wednesday night and lasting through early Friday morning. Thursday will be messy locally.
In Flagler Expect More Rain as PTC9 Morphs into Helene; State of Emergency for Panhandle and West Florida
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday declared a state of emergency for 41 counties as a storm system is expected to rapidly grow into a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The counties do not include Flagler or its surrounding region, which is expected to be spared the brunt of the storm. But Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord said Flagler could see up to 4 inches of rain on already saturated grounds over the next four days from what is currently known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, and will be known as Helene.
BP’s Flagler County Rainfall and Climate Report for August 2024
August 2024 rainfall figures were quite variable this past month. Normal year to date numbers are overall healthy with a few a below and above normal expectations. Normal rainfall for August is 6.40”. Normal year to date (YTD) rainfall is 33.13”. Localized rainfall has caused some areas to get more while others less which is typical of rainy season showers and storms.
If You Want Americans to Pay Attention to Climate Change, Just Call It Climate Change
You probably have been hearing phrases like “climate crisis,” “climate emergency” or “climate justice” more often lately as people try to get across the urgent risks and consequences of climate change. The danger is real, but is using this language actually persuasive? It turns out that Americans are more familiar with – and more concerned about – climate change and global warming than they are about all those other ways to describe the problem.
Ernesto, Soon to Be Major Hurricane, Will Veer Far from Coast But Create Dangerous Rip Currents and Surf
Though Tropical Storm Ernesto, which will become a hurricane today, is veering far east of the coast, the Flagler and Florida coastlines will see dangerous rip currents and heavy surf that may further damage beach renourishment efforts in Flagler Beach, starting Thursday. Some of the sand dredged onto the beach there in the last few weeks was eroded by heavy surf from Tropical Storm Debby.
Forecasters Reduce Hurricane Season Forecast of Named Storms from 25 to 23
The university’s Department of Atmospheric Science reduced from 25 to 23 the number of named storms it expects during the season, which started June 1 and will end Nov. 30. The department, however, did not change its prediction of the season producing 12 hurricanes, with six reaching Category 3 or higher status to qualify as major storms.
New Beach Erodes in Flagler Beach as Tropical Storm Debby Batters Northern Path with Potentially Catastrophic Rains
Impacts in Flagler County were expected to be more limited to winds in the 20 to 30 mph range for the rest of the day and some heavy rainfall, but the sea’s impact on Flagler County’s shore was already apparent as churns eroded significant portions of the newly renourished beach at the south end of Flagler Beach, while further eroding the redder, not-yet renourished sands north of the pier.
Depression Expected to Become Tropical Storm and Bring Heavy Rain to Region Sunday and Monday
A tropical depression currently moving west-northwest over Central Cuba is expected to become a tropical storm as it crosses the Florida Keys Saturday night, then shear into the area of Tampa Bay and cross the state toward Jacksonville, bringing heavy rain and potential tropical storm conditions to Flagler County between Sunday and Monday, according to the latest forecast of the National Hurricane Center.
Florida Has the Highest Rate of Heat-Related Illnesses, Report Finds
More than 5.7 million Floridians are vulnerable to extreme heat, according to a report from the Florida Policy Institute, which called upon state lawmakers to repeal a new law that prohibits local governments from enacting heat protections for outdoor workers.
Behind One of the Most Active Tornado Seasons on Record
More than 1,100 tornadoes were reported through May − a preliminary number but nearly twice the 30-year average at that point and behind only 2011, when deadly tornado outbreaks tore across the southeastern U.S. The U.S. experienced several multistate outbreaks in 2024.
Hurricane Forecast Ramps Up, Adding 2 Named Storms for Total of 25 as Beryl Is Termed ‘Harbinger’
A day after deadly Hurricane Beryl pounded Texas, experts at Colorado State University on Tuesday increased their storm forecast for what was already expected to be an above-average hurricane season. Including Beryl and short-lived tropical storms Alberto and Chris, the department’s forecast now calls for 25 named storms this season, up from 23 when the first forecast was released in April.
Hurricane Beryl No Threat to Flagler, But Stay Prepared, Emergency Management Director Says
Don’t let it ruin the holiday, though Flagler County officials advise residents to keep an eye on the tropics as they are becoming more active. Stay informed and check personal disaster kits.
‘It Can Happen Here’: Emergency Management Director Warns Against Hurricane Complacency in Flagler Ahead of Busy Season
There’s a dangerous myth in Flagler County, and the longer people have lived here, the more they start believing the myth, and spreading it: that Flagler County is immune to hurricanes. Jonathan Lord, Flagler County’s emergency management director, says ahead of what has been predicted to be the busiest hurricane season in memory that Flagler County is at risk of getting a direct hurricane hit, even a Category 5 hurricane, as any other coastal community in the state.
Florida Preparing for a Hurricane Season with Up to 25 Named Storms
Echoing earlier predictions about the season that will start June 1, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday pointed to warm ocean waters and forecast up to 25 named storms, with up to 13 reaching hurricane strength and four to seven packing Category 3 or stronger winds.
Two Tornado Warnings Overnight in Flagler, No Touchdowns
Tornado warnings woke up Flagler County residents in two locations Wednesday morning, at 2:45 a.m. and shortly afterward, but “there was no sign of touchdown anywhere in Flagler County reported to us,” Flagler County Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord said. The county remains under a tornado watch until early afternoon.
Tornado Watch In Effect for All of Flagler County Until Afternoon as Rounds of Severe Weather Continue
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction center in Norma, Okla., issued a tornado watch for Flagler, St. Johns and 17 other northeast Florida counties–but not Volusia–until 1 p.m.. today. The watch is the result of a continuing series of severe weather outbreaks that have left a trail of power outages and a few deaths from Texas going eastward, and that may stretch at least to Wednesday, causing heavy rainfall, localized flooding, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Worrisome Dry Conditions in Flagler Prompt Caution About Wildfires and Yard Kindling
The lack of recent rain means conditions are getting drier in Flagler County, increasing the potential for brushfires. Taking a few precautions now can go a long way to protect homes and businesses from these fires, which can be all too common this time of year.
Not All Tornado Warnings Are Treated Equal, But Parents and Faculty at Indian Trails Middle Weren’t Told
A tornado warning localized to a particular area of Flagler County on Thursday but broadcast countywide on cell phones left faculty members and volunteers at Indian Trails Middle School anxious and in the dark about the school’s lack of response as the storm raged outside, or any effort to voice explanations or reassurances over the PA system: what parents and other did learn from the district was not issued until two hours after the fact.
Forecasters Warn of ‘Very, Very Busy Hurricane Season’ With 23 Named Storms, Most-Ever Predicted in April
Colorado State University researchers projected 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes, with five reaching major hurricanes status. The estimates represent the highest April forecast numbers the university has produced. By comparison, the Atlantic season from 1991 to 2020 averaged 14.4 storms a year, with an average of 7.2 reaching hurricane strength. Models anticipate a well-above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean.
Palm Coast and Flagler County Under Tornado Watch Until 5 PM As Severe Storm Front Approaches
Flagler County and its cities, including Palm Coast, are under a tornado watch until 5 p.m. as a storm front sweeping across Florida from north to south approaches the region. About a dozen counties north and west of Flagler are under the watch.
2.5 Million People Were Displaced by Tornadoes and Other Disasters in America Last Year
A closer look at demographics in the survey reveals much more about disaster risk in America and who is vulnerable. It suggests, as researchers have also found, that people with the fewest resources, as well as those who have disabilities or have been marginalized, were more likely to be displaced from their homes by disasters than other people.
Pinpointing 36.8 Million Annual Lightning Strikes in Unprecedented Detail
Each giant spark of electricity travels through the atmosphere at 200,000 miles per hour. It is hotter than the surface of the sun and delivers thousands of times more electricity than the power outlet that charges your smartphone. In the United States, an average of 28 people were killed by lightning every year between 2006 and 2023.
Above-Average Rainfall Dominates Most of the Region in January
In January, the 18 counties forming the St. Johns River Water Management District, including Flagler, continued its trend of above-average rainfall, mainly due to frontal systems, a common occurrence during this time of the year. Eleven counties received between half an inch to an inch more rainfall than their usual monthly average.
Tornado Watch in Effect for Flagler Until 6 PM; School District and Palm Coast Cancel Activities
Flagler County Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord is urging caution and alertness in preparation for a day of stronger-than-usual winds around midday Tuesday, then a squall lines of storms Tuesday evening, especially between 5 and 7 p.m. Relative to the Panhandle, the unsettled weather won;t be as severe in Flagler County, but the most important thing will be to be informed through an alert system, Lord said, as there is a small potential for tornadoes and hail.
Grinchy Storm Raises Flooding Concerns and Cancels Palm Coast Starlight Parade, With No Make-Up Date
A low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico that will whirl across Florida over the weekend, from the Big Bend area to Jacksonville, is expected to churn up the Atlantic with up to 10-foot waves and significantly higher tides that may cause flooding, it is already kicking up wind gusts of up to 40 mph in places, and it is cancelling weekend plans such as the much-anticipated Palm Coast Starlight Parade.
Palm Coast Tornado Confirmed, ‘Multiple, Severely Damaged Homes’ in B-Section, Some Homeless
Flagler County Emergency Management and other first responders are investigating a tornado touching down in Palm Coast’s B Section around 4:45 this morning, leaving a trail of downed trees, downed power lines, damaged roofs, fencing and power losses. There are no reports of injuries.