A new forecast for this hurricane season predicts 18 named storms, with winds of at least 39 miles per hour; nine hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph; and four major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 mph.
Weather and Climate
Flagler Replaces Confusing Letter-Based Evacuation Zones With Neighborhood Names as Hurricane Season Begins
As the 2023 hurricane season begins–with a forecast of 12 to 17 named storms–Flagler County’s Evacuation Zones A and B and C are a thing of the past, replaced by a more intuitive, neighborhood-named system. Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord previewed the season and a few changes ahead.
The Thinking error Behind Climate Change Deniers
Cold spells often bring climate change deniers out in force. From a scientific standpoint, these claims of disproof are absurd. Fluctuations in the weather don’t refute clear long-term trends in the climate. Yet many people believe these claims, and the political result has been reduced willingness to take action to mitigate climate change.
El Niño Is On the Way, With Oceans Already at Record High Temps
During El Niño, a swath of ocean stretching 6,000 miles warms for months on end, typically by 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit–more than enough to completely reorganize wind, rainfall and temperature patterns all over the planet.
Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Today in Flagler
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville cautions that today–Thursday–will bring unsettled weather to the Flagler-Palm Coast region.
Strong Nor’easter Conditions and Erosion Expected on Easter Sunday and Monday
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is cautioning that strong north-northeasterly winds will develop in the wake of a cold front tonight and Sunday at coastal locations including all of Flagler County’s, with strong winds continuing through Monday.
Why Tornadoes Are Still Hard to Forecast
Meteorologists have gotten a lot better at forecasting the conditions that make tornadoes more likely. But predicting exactly which thunderstorms will produce a tornado and when is harder, and that’s where a lot of severe weather research is focused today.
Climate Is Reaching a Critical Turning Point, Report Warns, But Options Remain
The world is in deep trouble on climate change, but if we really put our shoulder to the wheel we can turn things around. Loosely, that’s the essence of today’s report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Severe Thunderstorm Potential Sunday Night Into Monday
A Low-pressure system and accompanying cold front will generate strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Monday in Northeast Florida and Southwest Georgia. The squall line is expected over Flagler County between 11 p.m. this evening and 8 a.m. Monday. after 7 p.m.
How Atmospheric Rivers Are Accelerating Polar Melt
Atmospheric rivers, those long, powerful streams of moisture in the sky, are becoming more frequent in the Arctic, and they’re helping to drive dramatic shrinking of the Arctic’s sea ice cover. Sea ice loss contributes to global warming and to extreme storms that cause economic damage well beyond the Arctic.
Climate Change Helped Make 2022 the 3rd Most Expensive Year on Record
U.S. weather disasters are getting costlier as more people move into vulnerable areas and climate change raises the risks of extreme heat and rainfall. Even with an average hurricane season, 2022 had the third-highest number of billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. since 1980.
2022’s US Climate Disasters
The year 2022 will be remembered across the U.S. for its devastating flooding, storms and hurricanes – and also for its extreme heat waves and droughts, including one so severe it briefly shut down traffic on the Mississippi River.
Seafloor Evidence from Old Hurricanes Has Oceanographers Worried
Hurricanes leave behind telltale evidence that goes back millennia. The Atlantic has experienced even stormier periods in the past than we’ve seen in recent years. That’s not good news. It tells coastal oceanographers like me that we may be significantly underestimating the threat hurricanes pose to Caribbean islands and the North American coast in the future.
Coalition Calls for Florida Legislative Committee Focused on Climate Change
More than a dozen environmental and community-based organizations are calling on the new leaders of the Florida Legislature to create a special committee to address climate change, saying that the issue is the biggest threat to the state.
Nicole Lashes at Flagler’s Coast, Severely Damaging Parts of A1A as Officials Advise to ‘Hunker Down Today’
The 500-mile-wide Nicole made landfall as a hurricane near Vero Beach around 3 a.m. Thursday, battering Florida’s east coast with damaging waves that have wrecked parts of State Road A1A in Flagler Beach, while swathing parts of the state in tropical storm conditions.
Tropical Storm Nicole Took a Toll Along A1A Wednesday, With ‘Devastating’ Beach Impacts Still Ahead
The center of Tropical Storm Nicole was about 300 miles southeast of Flagler Beach in mid-afternoon today, but the vastness of its strength and impacts was apparent up and down Flagler County’s coast, with most pronounced damages to dunes south of the Flagler Beach pier and toward the Flagler-Volusia County line.
Barrier Island May Be Evacuated Wednesday Morning as Nicole’s Effects on Flagler Could Repeat Ian’s
Flagler County emergency management officials are cautioning residents of the barrier island, from Flagler Beach to Marineland, to be ready to evacuate as early as Wednesday as sub-tropical storm Nicole strengthens into a hurricane, making landfall in south Florida in the first hours of Thursday. Talks are ongoing possibly to stand up a shelter at the Palm Coast Community Center.
What To Expect at the Climate Summit
This year’s climate summit is seen as the one that can bring concrete actions and commitments on emission reductions and also on the financing of losses and damages resulting from climate change to the global south. But will it be more successful than previous summits?
Tropical Storm Nicole Took a Toll Along A1A Wednesday, (Redirected)
The center of Tropical Storm Nicole was about 300 miles southeast of Flagler Beach in mid-afternoon today, but the vastness of its strength and impacts was apparent up and down Flagler County’s coast, with most pronounced damages to dunes south of the Flagler Beach pier and toward the Flagler-Volusia County line.
Potential Storm Has Flagler Officials Worried About Further Damage to Weakened Dunes
A storm developing east of the Bahamas has Flagler County officials worried–not about a significant wind or rain event, but about higher tides, high waves and further damage to the already weakened dune system along the county’s 18 miles of coastline.
Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole to Become Hurricane Before Florida Landfall (redirected)
Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole’s more defined path now has it becoming a hurricane before it makes landfall in South Florida late Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Flagler County, where the Weather Service is forecasting widespread impacts with prolonged coastal flooding, possible tropical-storm-force winds, locally heavy rainfall, and rough surf later this week.
The Blessing of Barrier Islands
Barrier islands protect about 10 percent of coastlines worldwide. When hurricanes and storms make landfall, these strands absorb much of their force, reducing wave energy and protecting inland areas. They also provide a sheltered environment that enables estuaries and marshes to form behind them.
Understanding Storm Surge and Why It Can Be So Catastrophic
Of all the hazards that hurricanes bring, storm surge is the greatest threat to life and property along the coast. It can sweep homes off their foundations, flood riverside communities miles inland, and break up dunes and levees that normally protect coastal areas against storms.
What Happens When Hurricane Hunters Plunge Into the Eyewall of a Storm
The leader of NOAA’s hurricane field program and a University of Miami meteorologist describes the experience aboard a P-3 Orion as it plunges through the eyewall of a hurricane and the technology the team uses to gauge hurricane behavior in real time.
Hurricane Ian’s 2-Day Stall Off Tampa Could Bring Flooding Rains and Wind to Flagler
Hurricane Ian is expected to nearly stall as a major hurricane off the coast of Tampa Bay, lashing the northeast of Florida with torrential rain and raising the potential for floods in addition to some tropical storm-force winds. Flagler governments are beginning to shut down regular operations and declare states of emergency.
3 Reasons Hurricane Ian Poses a Major Flooding Hazard for Florida
While Ian travels up the Florida coast, these outer bands will stretch over much of the peninsula and produce heavy rain for many locations, beginning as early as Monday night for South Florida and late Wednesday for northern parts of the state.
Fiona Strikes Canada? Blame Global Warming.
The huge storm had a very low atmospheric pressure (931.6 mb) — which is the lowest ever recorded for a tropical storm that made landfall in Canada. Low pressure weather systems are associated with strong winds and heavy rains.
Flagler Making Sandbags Available Starting Today as Flooding Is in Forecast
Flagler County officials are starting sandbag operations Sunday as the one certainty about Tropical Storm Ian is that it will bring plenty of rain with it and a high likelihood of flooding in some areas. Two locations will open about noon today – one on the barrier island and the other in western Flagler County.
Tropical Storm Ian: Intensity of Coming Hurricane Certain, Landfall Location Less So
The models are in largely in agreement about Tropical Storm Ian’s path over the next three days as it becomes Hurricane Ian: a slight arc around western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. But the models diverge after that, with some projecting a more westerly path and some having Ian strike Florida at Tampa Bay.
As Hurricane Hermine Ian Gestates, King Tide Flooding Is More Immediate Concern in Flagler
What is expected to become Hurricane Hermine is now Tropical Depression 9. But Flagler County residents should be more immediately concerned about the effects of a king tide combining with remnants of Hurricane Fiona and the approach of Hermine, all of which will create significant flooding conditions along the Intracoastal and low-lying areas of Palm Coast and western Flagler.
Arctic Is Warming Nearly 4 Times Faster Than Rest of the Planet
The Arctic is on average around 3℃ warmer than it was in 1980. This is alarming, because the Arctic contains sensitive and delicately balanced climate components that, if pushed too hard, will respond with global consequences.
Mid-Season Update Still Projects Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Activity
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
How Record-Setting Heat Waves Could Punish Economies Already Reeling from Inflation
Hundreds of millions of people struggled to keep cool amid a sweltering summer heat wave as cities across the U.S. and mainland Europe experienced record-high temperatures. Here are four ways extreme heat hurts the economy.
What the Controversial 1972 ‘Limits to Growth’ Report Got Right
“The Limits to Growth,” an extension of biologist Paul Ehrlich’s bestselling “The Population Bomb,” was way off in some regards, but dead on in this one: Humans must limit and soon reduce their aggregate production of greenhouse gas emissions.
July Rains Relieve Northeast Florida of Abnormally Dry Conditions
Recent rainfall throughout the St. Johns River Water Management District’s 18-county region, which includes Flagler County, has relieved portions of northeast Florida that had been abnormally dry after below-average rainfall in June.
Understanding the Heat Dome: Why America Is Baking
A heat dome occurs when a persistent region of high pressure traps heat over an area. The heat dome can stretch over several states and linger for days to weeks, leaving the people, crops and animals below to suffer through stagnant, hot air that can feel like an oven.
Antarctica’s Riskiest Glacier Is Losing Its Grip
Antarctica is a continent comprising several large islands, one of them the size of Australia, all buried under a 10,000-foot-thick layer of ice. The ice holds enough fresh water to raise sea level by nearly 200 feet. You don’t want its glaciers melting. They are.
Tropical Storm Almost-Alex: No Direct Impacts for Flagler, But a Good Reminder to Prepare
While Flagler County’s Emergency Operations Center staff is keeping an eye on the storm, Emergency Management Chief Jonathan Lord says Flagler will see some wind and up to a quarter to half an inch of rain Saturday, but little else from the storm soon to be called Alex.
BP’s Flagler County Rainfall and Climate Report for May 2022
The following is Flagler County Emergency Management Weather Specialist Bob Pickering’s report for Flagler County rainfall and climate in May, as prepared and submitted today.
“Be Prepared to Be Off the Grid”: Flagler Emergency Management Chief Decodes Hurricane Season
Flagler County Emergency Management Chief Jonathan Lord today prefaced the 2022 hurricane season, with 14 to 21 storms predicted, six to 10 of them expected to become hurricanes. There are some worrisome weather factors in play, but also improvements in preparation and infrastructure.
Bad News for Hurricane Season: Loop Current, Fueler of Monster Storms, Looks a lot like in the Year of Katrina
The Loop Current is the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks. When the Loop Current reaches this far north this early in the hurricane season – especially during what’s forecast to be a busy season – it can spell disaster for folks along the Northern Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida.
Free “Storm Spotters” Class On May 20 At Emergency Operations Center
Participants are eligible to become volunteer storm spotters and assist Emergency Services and the National Weather Service by reporting potentially hazardous weather events.
The Southwest is on Fire: 3 Reasons the 2022 Fire Season Is So Early and Intense
New Mexico and Arizona are facing a dangerously early fire season, with 600 fires leaving neighborhoods in ashes and triggering a federal disaster declaration. A scientist explains why the unusual intensity and timing.
Haw Creek and Rima Ridge Get Weather-Monitoring Stations
Flagler County has two new hurricane wind rated weather-monitoring stations in Haw Creek and Rima Ridge thanks to coordination between Emergency Management and WeatherSTEM through grants provided by the State of Florida.
Experts Predict 19 Named Storms and 9 Hurricanes This Season
Researchers have put forward a second above-normal forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University researchers predicted 19 named storms, with nine growing into hurricanes, for the season that runs from June 1 to November 30.
Funnel Cloud Spotted in 3 Locations, from Fairgrounds to Beverly Beach, as Severe Storm Sweeps Through Flagler
A funnel cloud was spotted in three locations late this morning as a tornado-warning leaden storm swept through northeast and central Flagler County from the east, but the funnels never touched down and damage was limited to a few, immediately contained brush fires from lightning strikes. “We got off pretty well, lightly,” Flagler County Emergency Management Chief Jonathan Lord said.
How Fast Can We Stop Earth from Warming?
Global warming doesn’t stop on a dime. If people everywhere stopped burning fossil fuels tomorrow, stored heat would still continue to warm the atmosphere. But where we once thought it would take 40 years or longer for global surface air temperature to peak once humans stopped heating up the planet, research now suggests temperature could peak in closer to 10 years.
If You’re a Coastal Home Buyer, You’re Ignoring Rising Risks
Waterfront homes are selling within days of going on the market, and the same story is playing out all along the South Florida coast at a time when scientific reports are warning about the rising risks of coastal flooding as the planet warms.
A Day of Potentially Severe Weather Could Add Up to 1.5 Inches of Rain on Saturated Grounds
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is cautioning residents of a day of potentially severe weather, including heavy rain and strong wind gusts, through the middle of the afternoon. Palm Coast could get more than an inch of rain, adding to already saturated grounds.
Severe Weather Tonight Into Saturday with Potential for Isolated Tornadoes, Followed By Freeze
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is cautioning residents of northeast Florida, including all of Flagler County and northern Volusia, to be prepared for severe and potentially dangerous weather today, tonight and through late in the day Saturday, with the slight possibility of isolated nighttime tornadoes. The unsettled weather will be followed by a freeze in much of the area.