By Tatishe Nteta, Adam Eichen and Jesse Rhodes
During a Washington Nationals baseball game on May 17, 2026, three people unfurled a large banner from the upper deck of Nationals Park displaying a link to a white nationalist website.
The website, warning of the replacement of whites by people of color, called for the deportation of 100 million people from the United States.
The disturbing incident reflects the broader ascendance of the “great replacement theory,” the xenophobic conspiracy theory asserting that shadowy elites are embracing permissive immigration policies to replace native-born white Americans with immigrants of color.
Prominent Republicans, including President Donald Trump, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson, have echoed ideas associated with the great replacement theory. And conservative media outlets, such as Fox News, have disseminated them to millions of viewers.
But are the xenophobic ideas recently expressed at Nationals Park limited to a small number of extremists, or are they also endorsed by the broader public? If the latter, how do political and media elites contribute to their spread?
To answer these questions, our team has conducted several nationally representative surveys that ask Americans about their support for key tenets of the great replacement theory.
New immigrants as a threat
We consistently found that a substantial minority of Americans agree with the sentiment that new immigrants threaten the political, cultural and economic power of white Americans. In our latest poll of 1,000 Americans fielded in March 2026, 36% agreed with the statement: “Native-born Americans are losing their economic, political, and cultural influence in this country because of the growing population of immigrants.”
A notable number of Americans – 26% – also believed political elites are trying to “replace” the existing white population, agreeing with the statement: “There are people who secretly work to make sure immigrants will eventually replace real Americans.”
Support for these beliefs is concentrated most heavily among white Americans, Republicans, conservatives and self-identifying members of Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. Indeed, more than 3 in 4 members of the MAGA movement and close to 6 in 10 Republicans agreed with the statement: “Immigrants invade and colonize the United States.”
But what explains this spread of the great replacement theory?
In our newly published, peer-reviewed study, we used nationally representative panel survey data that tracked over 500 white Americans over time to attempt to answer this question.
We found that white Americans who identified as Republican, who are conservatives and who have negative views of people from other racial backgrounds are all more likely to express support for key tenets of the great replacement theory. Moreover, we uncovered clear evidence that white Americans who watch Fox News are also more likely to agree with the conspiracy theory.
Given the popularity of Fox News, we believe this latter point deserved further investigation. As detailed in our paper, while 39% of all white Americans agree that immigrants invade and colonize the U.S., 61% of white Americans who watch Fox News agree with this view. Even when taking into account partisan identification, ideology, racial attitudes and demographic characteristics, Fox News viewership remains significantly associated with more support for the great replacement theory.
Additionally, because we tracked white Americans over time, we could observe changes in their support for the conspiracy theory in response to variations in their viewership of Fox News. Simply put, the more Fox News programming that a white American watches, the more likely they are to adopt the conspiracy theory.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Links to political violence
Our research builds on decades of work showing that public opinion is strongly influenced by media consumption. Recent scholarship, in particular, highlights the influence of Fox News on public opinion. It shows how exposure to Fox News leads Americans to express more conservative attitudes about the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration policies and criminal justice issues.
Given the attention that Fox News hosts, elected officials and pundits dedicate to the great replacement theory, our results suggest that this coverage has indeed influenced the views of white Americans. The great replacement theory is no longer purely on the fringes of society.
In our view, this is troubling, not only because the conspiracy theory treats immigration as an existential issue — where the stakes are framed as the very preservation of one’s self and country — but also because the theory is also linked to numerous instances of political violence directed at people of color and religious minorities.
As America approaches its 250th birthday, the nation will no doubt continue to grapple with the topic of immigration, race and what it means to be an American.
While there’s plenty of room for disagreement over immigration policy, conspiracy theories make it much harder to find common ground or craft political compromises. What we’ve found is that when prominent media embrace conspiracy theorizing, increased public endorsement of conspiracies will follow.
Tatishe Nteta is Provost Professor of Political Science, Adam Eichen
is a doctoral Candidate in Political Science, and Jesse Rhodes is Associate Professor of Political Science, all at UMass Amherst.
Laurel says
Fox News is not news, it’s 24/7 ignorant babble. It’s Fox Entertainment for those who lack confidence in themselves, so put down others in an attempt to make themselves feel better. How that actually works, I don’t understand. Somewhere deep inside, they know better, which makes them feel even worse, and angrier.
My husband grew up Episcopalian in a Republican in a Republican household. There is nothing “conservative” or “Christian” about the maga, Fox Entertainment crowd today. I can barely imagine his disappointment.
I never dreamed, that by the time I would be in my 70’s, that cars would still be running on rubber tires, there would still be telephone wires hanging in the air, and people would go back in time to ignorant bigotry. But here we are.
Jake Frome State Farm says
As are CNN, MSNOW, ABC, Flagler Live, NBC, CBS, Sky News, BBC….. the list goes on and on. There is no news anymore. There are no journalists. It is all someone opinion. When you can’t present something without the receiver able to see which way you lean you are not a journalist. A journalist presents facts and lets the receiver draw their own opinion.
R.S. says
I’m a believer in the replacement theory! But it has happened already. Europeans have replaced and ruthlessly killed 60 to 100 million people of color that this place already belonged to. The oldest continuously inhabited city in North America is Cholula, Mexico. Dating back to around 500 B.C.E., it is located just outside the modern city of Puebla and has been continuously occupied for over 2,500 years. Stupidity reigns supreme in those silly European newcomers. And, yes, much of this stultification is due to the clowns on FOX.
Mike Cocchiola says
We have met the enemy, and they are us.
Far too many White American conservatives get their prejudices enflamed by propaganda outlets like Fox, Newsmax, Breitbart, and The War Room. But these far-right conspiracy mills merely reinforce the extreme beliefs of White supremacy and privilege that already exist. MAGAs are wide open with their fear and hatred of diversity. They are racist to their bone marrow, and nothing will ever change them. They are beyond redemption. And while others may be more circumspect, it’s all still there, waiting.
Realistically, we are in a cultural civil war with no end in sight. We just have to keep pushing back relentlessly and gain a step forward when we can.
Laurel says
“I am your retribution.”
Donald J Trump
Vengeance be mine
– God
Trump is not our retribution; we are his, as he planned.
Land of no turn signals says says
And Nancy Pelosi as your poster child.Nuff said.
Laurel says
Land: No, not “’nuff.” Tell us exactly, with facts, what Nancy Pelosi has done to upset you.
Nancy Pelosi is a strong willed woman who herded cats (Democrats) and the Republicans hate that. There is no politician who will get a 100% thumbs up from each of us, but it is crystal clear that strong women are scary to some.
So go ahead, Land, provide us with research-able facts.
Get the crickets lined up.
Atwp says
The Republicans. A very bad party.
feddy says
So why is CNN, MSNBC and the View not included? Regardless of if your political affiliation or beliefs all sides have bias reporting along with good and bad political representees.
Deborah Coffey says
Bias is NOT LYING. Get it?
Sherry says
Thank you Deborah!
Laurel says
“The View” is not news. The very name of the show is self explanatory.
However, I stopped watching it when their network kowtowed to Trump. That’s the problem. MSNow makes money on Trump’s absurdity the same as does Fox Entertainment, as does CNN.
Try PBS. They actually report.
Dennis C Rathsam says
Why then is all the fraud, & corruption in Democrat states? 6.600 illegals registered voters in NJ, just today! Welfare fraud is being uncovered, every day! NY,NJ, CA Ma Mich Ill. The thief’s are the Democrates … How many dead people did they find collecting SS or Welfare? Well the party’s over, funding has stopped. Now we will see who the real people are that need our help, without lining the Jackasses pockets. Try to explain to me how so many Democratic senators & congress men are now multi millionaires? Stock market gurus, they want u to believe! I call it insider trading. Democrates been skrewing America for yrs, trying their best to destroy the constitution on our 250th birthday. TRUMPS sinking your ship! Funny how much corruption he,s found…. its only the tip of the iceberg….remember the Titanic, the funniest thing is donkeys cant swim.
Deborah Coffey says
You’re running your own FOX “news” on this comment board…every sentence a falsehood.