By Meru Sheel and Alexandra Hogan
We know vaccines have been a miracle for public health. Now, new research led by the World Health Organization has found vaccines have saved an estimated 154 million lives in the past 50 years from 14 different diseases. Most of these have been children under five, and around two-thirds children under one year old.
In 1974 the World Health Assembly launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization with the goal to vaccinate all children against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), measles, polio, tuberculosis and smallpox by 1990. The program was subsequently expanded to include several other diseases.
The modelling, marking 50 years since this program was established, shows a child aged under ten has about a 40% greater chance of living until their next birthday, compared to if we didn’t have vaccines. And these positive effects can be seen well into adult life. A 50-year-old has a 16% greater chance of celebrating their next birthday thanks to vaccines.
What the study did
The researchers developed mathematical and statistical models which took in vaccine coverage data and population numbers from 194 countries for the years 1974–2024. Not all diseases were included (for example smallpox, which was eradicated in 1980, was left out).
The analysis includes vaccines for 14 diseases, with 11 of these included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization. For some countries, additional vaccines such as Japanese encephalitis, meningitis A and yellow fever were included, as these diseases contribute to major disease burden in certain settings.
The models were used to simulate how diseases would have spread from 1974 to now, as vaccines were introduced, for each country and age group, incorporating data on increasing vaccine coverage over time.
Children are the greatest beneficiaries of vaccines
Since 1974, the rates of deaths in children before their first birthday has more than halved. The researchers calculated almost 40% of this reduction is due to vaccines.
The effects have been greatest for children born in the 1980s because of the intensive efforts made globally to reduce the burden of diseases like measles, polio and whooping cough.
Some 60% of the 154 million lives saved would have been lives lost to measles. This is likely due to its ability to spread rapidly. One person with measles can spread the infection to 12–18 people.
The study also found some variation across different parts of the world. For example, vaccination programs have had a much greater impact on the probability of children living longer across low- and middle-income countries and settings with weaker health systems such as the eastern Mediterranean and African regions. These results highlight the important role vaccines play in promoting health equity.
Vaccine success is not assured
Low or declining vaccine coverage can lead to epidemics which can devastate communities and overwhelm health systems.
Notably, the COVID pandemic saw an overall decline in measles vaccine coverage, with 86% of children having received their first dose in 2019 to 83% in 2022. This is concerning because very high levels of vaccination coverage (more than 95%) are required to achieve herd immunity against measles.
In Australia, the coverage for childhood vaccines, including measles, mumps and rubella, has declined compared to before the pandemic.
This study is a reminder of why we need to continue to vaccinate – not just against measles, but against all diseases we have safe and effective vaccines for.
The results of this research don’t tell us the full story about the impact of vaccines. For example, the authors didn’t include data for some vaccines such as COVID and HPV (human papillomavirus). Also, like with all modelling studies, there are some uncertainties, as data was not available for all time periods and countries.
Nonetheless, the results show the success of global vaccination programs over time. If we want to continue to see lives saved, we need to keep investing in vaccination locally, regionally and globally.
Meru Sheel is Associate Professor and Epidemiologist, Infectious Diseases, Immunisation and Emergencies Group at Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney. Alexandra Hogan is a Mathematical epidemiologist at UNSW Sydney.
Pogo says
@FlaglerLive
Thank you.
Related
As stated
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JOE D says
As a newly retired nurse (45 years experience), I could SCREAM at the RIDICULOUS social media posts, and stances from POLITICAL figures, spouting off MEDICAL propaganda with ABSOLUTELY NO SCIENTIFIC basis in FACT! Avoiding vaccinations just puts your OWN life, your FAMILY’s lives, and those of the COMMUNITY around you (even if YOU personally SURVIVED the disease, someone else might not be as lucky due to different immunity or different DNA or pre-existing other medical conditions).
Meanwhile diseases (especially VIRUSES) can quickly MUTATE as they go from person to person, leading to the possibility (probability), that soon, a MUTATION will evolve that can SLIP BY current vaccines.
The data in this article are SCIENTIFICALLY BASED, not POLITICAL OPINIONS. You can see (worldwide) what current vaccinations have done to save lives around the world. Additionally, you can see how QUICKLY a drop in vaccination rates (even for regular childhood immunizations during the recent pandemic, due to DELAYED regular Pediatrician appointments) can affect the ENTIRE community’s ability to fight off diseases that used to DEVASTATE entire populations, and now are GENERALLY under control.
My experience making 3 MEDICAL MISSIONARY trips to other countries, just made me aware of the way the USA is truly BLESSED with the means to prevent and treat diseases that in other parts of the world would result in frequent disability or DEATH.
Bill C says
Probably conspiracy theorists who most need to read this graph and data filled story are least likely to read it. Keeping it simple, the CDC says that, statistically, people who were not vaccinated during Covid were 14X more likely to die than people who were vaccinated. Or believe the dead worm in JFK Jr’s brain talking through his mouth.
Laurel says
Joe D: For starters, I’m gonna steal your caps button. Other than that, I fully agree with you. We are blessed to have the availability of vaccinations, that are not available to other parts of the world, at least not so easily.
When I was a kid, polio was going around. Thank goodness, and the work of scientists, that a vaccine came out and was available to us. We did get a lot of different shots in school, and others required before school. I don’t know of any kids in any of my classes that got preventable diseases back then, or afterwards for that matter. I also don’t remember getting so many colds. Kids today seem to be sick a lot, and I mean a lot!
As you know, virus infections are relatively easy to prevent whereas near impossible to cure. The weight is on the side of prevention. Dr. Fauci was heavily involved in finding preventative vaccines for 50 years, and we should all be grateful to him. Instead, because of a few idiot politicians, he is all of a sudden demonized. Like John McCain, who was a war hero for 50 years, and came from an upstanding Navy family, he too was demonized by one idiot politician. Why? The McCains did not like, or trust, exKGB agent Putin. Add 2+2.
Some folks are so easily lead by those who don’t care about them, or care to look out for our society. They only look our for themselves, and I would wager, are vaccinated.
Joe D says
For Laurel: 😊
SORRY…the CAPS button is under lock and key, fully encrypted and lazed protected from THEFT (opps…theft).
It’s just after covering 2 medical ICU’s during Covid (all converted to exclusive COVID treatment), each 24 beds, in a large East Coast major university teaching hospital , and losing a patient every other day to Covid complications, it’s been hard to listen to the ANTI VAX extremists!
Many of those dying patients CHOSE to be unvaccinated, and I had to SCREAM (silently of course) at such a SAD choice (many believing the anti-vax HYPE) …that resulted in their UNNECESSARY DEATHS!
PS: caps lock button SAFELY locked away….until NEXT time 😉
Foresee says
A friend of mine is an ER/ICU nurse who has caught Covid twice in the performance of her duties. You are not only entitled to SCREAM, but in BOLDFACE. No apologies necessary. YOU ARE A HERO!
Laurel says
Joe D: I truly wish more people, who are vax deniers, would listen to people like you who have experienced, in real time, what happened to those unfortunate folks who died. How they suffered! I wish that hospitals would team up with scientists and educate people on the subject, preferably on local levels.
We vaccinate our pets, and so many of their diseases are avoided by doing so. Why oh why would people prefer to listen to politicians than to the medical profession? These people do not believe what you saw with your own eyes! Instead, they listen to irresponsible *leaders* who are personally rewarded for their lack of humanity.
Don’t misunderstand me, I’m not much for mandatory laws ruling our bodies. No, not much at all. But at some point, common sense must kick in, and for people to not believe that there were refrigerated trucks holding dead bodies, or tents, pitched in parking lots, filled because the hospitals were filled to capacity, leaves one to wonder how people think. ABC, NBC, CBS and PBS, along with leading scientists, doctors, the CDC, were not all lying to us. That’s ridiculous! But some politicians were, and many people died.
Laurel says
I meant that there are so many people who did believe they were being lied to by all mentioned. Seems crazy to me.