Higher Proportion of Flagler Democrats Are Voting Than GOP, But Still Not Enough to Outnumber Advantage
Just past the halfway mark in early voting, more than a quarter of Flagler County’s registered voters have cast a ballot in the general election that culminates on Nov. 8. But the voting is overwhelmingly by registered Republicans.
The perception is that Democrats appear to be sitting on their hands. They’re not: they’re outvoting Republicans, but only in proportion to their registration numbers, not in ballots cast. Since there are so many more registered Republicans than there are Democrats in the county, Democrats’ slight enthusiasm edge has not been nearly enough to compensate for the huge gap in actual ballots cast by Republicans.
Early voting at four locations in the county began on Oct. 24. It runs for 13 consecutive days, ending at 6 p.m. on Nov. 5. Voting by mail began weeks earlier. As has been the case since 2020, Democrats are voting in much larger proportions when it comes to mail-in ballots. As of Monday, they had a slight edge–a few dozen votes–in total mail-in ballots cast. But Republicans more than make up that edge in in-person, early voting ballots cast, outvoting Democrats by a more than 3-to-1 advantage.
As of midday Monday, almost 28,000 of Flagler County’s 95,300 voters had cast a ballot, for a turnout so far of 29 percent. That’s almost as high as the entire turnout for the Aug. 23 primary. It is likely that by midweek at the latest, the totals will exceed the primary’s turnout of 33 percent.
So far, 9,100 Democrats have voted and 13,900 Republicans have. Almost 60 percent of those ballots were sent in by mail, reflecting an enduring preference for that method. The rest has been by early voting. Mail-in ballots are still coming in in large batches, averaging 875 ballots per day over the last seven days, not counting Sunday.
During the primary, a slightly higher proportion of Democrats turned out to vote than Republicans. In other words, 40.5 percent of registered Democrats turned out, while 39.8 percent of Republicans did. That Democratic edge–the only edge they hold in this election–continues: So far, 35 percent of registered Democrats have cast a ballot, while 32 percent of Republicans have, again signaling more enthusiasm (or more civic responsibility) among Democrats. But again, the advantage is illusory.
Since there are more than one and a half times as many registered Republicans as there are Democrats in the county, Republicans had a 54 to 34 percent edge in ballots actually cast in the primary. They are on pace to have as overwhelming a showing in the general election. So far they account for half of all ballots cast. Democrats account for just 32 percent. Independents and small parties account for the remaining 17 percent. Assuming those split between GOP-leaning and Democratic-leaning candidates, Flagler County’s GOP candidates still go into Nov. 8 with a crushing advantage. It’s not that they’re more enthusiastic to vote: they’re not. But there are just many more of them.
There are now 1,000 more eligible voters than during the primary, for a total of 95,300. (There’s been more since books closed on registration eligibility for the coming election. But those who have registered since may not vote.) Republicans hold a 43,300 advantage to Democrats’ 26,200, with independents and smaller party registrants totaling 26,000, almost as many as Democrats.
Is this year’s election turnout particularly strong? Turnout in the 2020 election was the highest since the Carter-Ford contest of 1976, at least in Florida, matching that year’s turnout but not exceeding the 1968 Nixon-Humphrey contest. But an off-year election is only comparable to previous off-year elections, which draw notoriously fewer voters to the polls. Still, 63 percent of Florida voters turnout out in 2018, the best showing since 1994, when Newt Gingrich’s Republicans took over Congress two years into th Clinton administration.
Republicans this year are hoping for a similar onslaught, and are expected to take over the House, if not the Senate as well. But both Flagler and Florida are one-party establishments–solidly red, with Ron DeSantis poised to win re-election and both the County Commission and the Palm Coast City Council continuing as all-Republican boards. The only suspense appears to be the Courtney VandeBunte-Will Furry school board race.
Voter turnout in Flagler was 65 percent in 2018, with 14,649 voters casting ballots by mail, almost 23,000 voting early, and 15,690 voting on Election Day.
Already, more people have voted by mail this year–by 2,000–than did in 2018. A caveat: back then, there were 82,600 registered voters, or 12,700 fewer than today: the local electorate has grown by a whopping 15 percent. It appears that early voting will not match the 2018 numbers. If the daily average of around 1,450 votes continues, that total will end around the 19,000 mark. The question mark will be Election day voting, which had been losing steam well before Covid. Only 11,806 people voted on election day in 2020, a presidential year, compared to 15,590 in 2018. This year’s election-day voting is again expected to be lower than mail-in balloting or early voting.
|To vote: see a sample ballot here. Early voting is between October 24 and November 5 from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. at four sites in the county, listed here. You may vote early at any of the four sites regardless of your precinct location. To vote by mail, request your mail-in ballot here. Because of the Legislature's new law, restricting voting convenience, drop boxes are available, but only to a limited degree. The ballot drop box at the Elections Office will be monitored by a staff member beginning 60 days prior to the election, through Election Day. This drop box will no longer be available after office hours or on weekends, except during the early voting period. Other drop boxes will be available at early voting locations, but only during the days of early voting, and only during voting hours. Mail ballots must be received in the Elections Office by 7 p.m. on Election Day in order to be counted. If returning your ballot by mail, please allow at least ten days for delivery. A postmark does not extend this deadline. You may track your ballot here. All other election-procedure related inquiries can be answered at the Elections Office's website.
Flagler County Commission
Jane Gentile-Youd (NPA)
Leann Pennington (R)
Palm Coast City Council
Alan Lowe, District 2
Theresa Carli Pontieri, District 2
Fernando Melendez, District 4
Cathy Heighter, District 4
Flagler County Voters Will Vote on Whether to Retain 11 Judges
Will Furry Chooses Sleaze. Again.
Jane Gentile-Youd says
Any stats on how many independent or NPAs have voted so far? No mention anywhere.
So far about 4,700 independents and small-party registrants have voted, or 17 percent of the total. It is mentioned in the body of the article.
Tim Mcauliffe says
I have been in front of the Library since Early Voting started, with a poster detailing how Marco Rubio has let Fl citizens down by not voting with the 57 other Senators (7 Republicans) opting to put a cap on insulin costs of $35/ month. Diabetes patients can pay as much as 10 times that if they don’t have insurance. it is estimated 10% of Americans have some form of diabetes (Herschel Walker blames diet, so please stay away from his chicken products). Anyway, the voters passing by showed no curiosity about the facts. They only have eyes for DeSantis, even though Rubio is selling out to Big Pharma.
The dude says
All these old birds around here are very very tribal.
Yes, Dude, you are.
I know a few disaffected Republicans who will now vote Democrat, so perhaps there are more out there than we think and there will be a surprise in the results after all.
David S. says
We can only hope. That MEGA crowd has got to go.
Republicans don’t offer solutions to America’s problems. The only tactic they have left in the bag is to ramp up the fear. Fear of losing country, losing gun rights, losing the majority white vote. Republican politicians before tRump couldn’t wait to stick their faces in camera’s now they all scurry away pretending to be late for something, and not a one that I can recall in recent years speaks about policies, except perhaps for denying a woman’s right to choose. The only time I see a republican is on one of their right-wing softball channels, which is usually nothing more than a fear mongering moment.
I don’t think these dims are smart enough for that, Bob.
My question is. What do the democrats offer. Ask yourself. . Are u better off today than 4 years ago. My guess is #1.nothing. #2. Most people in Flagler county would say NO. By the way it’s not theMEGA group
your comment is off the wall and was used how many decades ago
Pissed in PC says
Boomer Bob do us a favor and turn off Fox fake news, QNewsmax and scraping bottom of barrel OAN, RWN. You might actually hear and see that we are better off than 4 years ago.
The dude says
Yes, yes I am better off than I was 4 years ago, when I was better off than I was the 4 years before that, and the 4 years before that, and so on… that’s kinda what adulting is, always working to improve yourself and your life.
I adulted, I made a better life. It had nothing, NOTHING to do with who was the president, and what party they belonged to. Still pretty much in progress, seems to be getting better all the time, moving here has been a bit of a speedbump, but that too can and will be fixed.
I feel kinda sorry for those of you who can’t find your way without your tribe.
Well, for one thing, I feel infinitely safer knowing that the ‘big red button’ isn’t in the hands of a tantrum beset, lying, egomaniacal obese child.
As for the world situation, where were you when Donnieboy was lauding the merits of Kim, and XI, and Vlad as ‘good guys’ and bestie friends? Why do you think Putin felt so confident about the Ukraine? Because he was/is counting on the support of the American Republican party – and it looks like he may get it.
So yes, I AM better off today, regardless of the economic and political situation.
I’d much rather feel safe than rich.
Tired of it says
We are where we are today as a direct result of trump’s failed economic policies. Inflation doesn’t happen in two years. The huge amount he added to the national debt and his failed promise to pay it down. His China tariffs which resulted in higher prices to Americans and a $28 billion tax dollar bailout to Ameican farmers. His failure to deliver on his promised 6% GDP. His failure to balance the budget. His failure to provide the “better” healthcare plan and negotiate lower drug prices. The $180 million tax dollars he spent playing golf. An on and on…
William Moya says
Bob, alas, you stumble over the truth, nothing really changes, someone once refer to Republicans and the daddy Party and the Democrats as the Mommy Party, if you follow the aphorism, they’re still a married couple.
Uh, yeah. Way better off today. When Trump was president, we were the laughing stock of the world. When he lost, the world broke out in celebration like they just blew up the death star.
Inflation and all the rest of the problems plaguing us right now are a world wide thing. Idiots like Trump helped get us into this situation. Seriously, this denialism about COVID turned y’all into a death cult. Over a million dead Americans because he didn’t want to spook the stock market. Come on. Blaming Biden for gas prices is just dumb. You really need to read stuff and understand how stuff works.
Nephew of Uncle Sam says
Instead of asking what the Democrats have to offer why not look in the mirror and ask yourself truthfully what is the GOP agenda, how does it affect you and are you comfortable with that? No the country is not better off since the last Administration, it’s going to take time to clean up the mess that was caused by the Orange One and his MAGAot followers, along with all the treasonous insurrectionists.
Yes, I am better and happier today than 4 years ago enduring a demagogue’s rants then!
What Democrats offer that is better: no government intruding into women’s rights to control their own bodies same rights given to men now, no censorship of reading or speech, no vigilantism, no gerrymandering, secured permanence of our social security earned by us all in our long life of able sacrificed workers, incorrectly called entitlements our taxes invested in our decaying infrastructure other than breaks to the wealthy, Medicaid and social programs for the disadvantaged, the preservation of our still left pristine lands from contamination with more oil pipes to export the heavy shell oil travelling thru them, the reassurance that will never to be seeing oil rigs off our Atlantic coast ruining further our beaches, the help that all American students need to learn and have financial access to college and so many more that my memory is missing now. As a registered REP still, is my personal opinion.
Bob: Democrats offer freedom of choice for your body, freedom of religion and freedom from religion in our schools, not banning books, not lying about CRT, not lying about late term abortion, working at keeping our Social Security, keeping our Medicare, allowing it being up to you whom you may love and marry, negotiating drug prices, they’re not standing with guns and masks around voting drop boxes, they fight for equality and justice for everyone, fighting the invading Russians, lowered the unemployment rate, not spewing ridiculous conspiracy theories like John Kennedy Jr. will run for vice president in 2024, not attacking our USA Capital and crapping on the Capital floor, not trying to overthrow the government and put in alternative electors to overturn the election and not making crazy statements and accusations every time you turn around. I’m amazed that Republicans seem to enjoy the circus their current party promotes. It’s not the GOP.
Are we better off? Oh yeah, we are a hell of a lot better off with that grifter Trump out of office. He never should have been there, and it shows every stinking tweet he put out.
Make America Great Again! Republicans will greatly outnumber democrats on Election Day. DeSantis has the highest favorability rating of any politician on the left or right. I believe there were only one or two dems in the top 10. Rubio is awesome as is Rick Scott. We have great leadership in FL.
I’ll say it now and be back on Nov 8 to say it again – the state and country are fortunate the republicans will/have taken back control of congress so we can get away from the craziness of the democrat party.
DeSantis 2024. Make America Free Again!
kool-aid drinker that can not think for self
Brainwashed much?. How’d that stolen rigged Election work out for you. Little sweaty do nothing Marco is an absentee Senator, while Rick Scott is a crook. Maybe you should send more money to the orange blowhard and my pillow guy. Legal Counsel is expensive. Let’s not forget Stone ,Bannon, Flynn. Etc. Only the best people.
ALL those guys you named are superior to you and all the dims, ‘lil stevie!
Gina: Your “awesome” Rick Scott purchased and became CEO and president of a chain of hospitals in Texas and Tennessee that settled with the government for 1.7 billion dollars in Medicare and Medicaid fraud. (politifact.com)
Rubio votes in favor of the wealthy 90.9% of the time (politicsthatwork.com)
DeSantis has already begun campaigning out of state (The Floridian)
Why do you figure?
Perhaps more Republicans wait and vote on ELECTION DAY. Please post the percentages after the election.
With the many liars of the GOP growing, the Churches breaking laws (endorse candidates), States taking away freedoms along with the GOP Supreme Court. I envision something like the Movie PURGE (maybe not murder but some other dastardly GOP schemes) could be on the horizon within 2 election cycles. Normal Democrats nor Republicans won’t be safe. GOP says gun violence is caused by mentally unstable people. Well, the continuous lying has caused this mental illness like the attack on Mr. Pelosi. That guy believed the lies like the insurrectionists on January 6. The epidemic grows. Perhaps there will be a miracle to keep the U.S. as a democracy.
fools who still beleive this wicked administration in washinghton
is not destroying our nation, blind leaders of the blind, biden and
his cronies are doing it deliberately
is there a sentence, thought, or even concept anywhere in that ramble? or did you just post this waiting for your next beer?
billy: Can you be more specific with your comment, backed with facts?
Celia Pugliese says
Also applause to Democrat Biden for:
By September, the Biden administration was announcing that $1.6 billion would be devoted to the rehab effort through the Department of Health and Human Services. Florida’s Department of Children and Families got $101 million of that. We need to save our young Americans with substance addictions, too young to die!
Could be that disappointed Republicans and NPA’s will make a difference in Trump Country at the ballot box?
The dude says
I refused to declare my tribal allegiances to the state, mainly because I have none, that makes me an “NPA”.
Does that mean I can only vote for NPA candidates here in Floriduh?