By Jessica Genauer
The leaders of the United States and Iran have signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war between their countries, as well as Israel’s military assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
From the US point of view, the deal leaves a lot to be desired. Washington is giving up a lot for very little in return. President Donald Trump’s claims of success make this feel like an “emperor has no clothes” moment.
There is nothing positive for the US in the agreement that didn’t already exist before the war – including Iran’s very minimal nuclear concessions.
The US is also abandoning a number of partners – most prominently the Persian Gulf countries – but also Israel’s interests and obviously the Iranian people.
With this deal, the US is making promises it has no way of fulfilling, especially when it comes to sanctions relief and unfreezing Iranian assets.
Here is a point-by-point breakdown of some of the promises in the deal and the biggest problems I see with them.
Point 1: Israel’s bombing of Lebanon
The United States and Iran and their allies […] declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
A big problem here is the deal does not mention Israel or Hezbollah, who are the two parties to that conflict and clearly have not been consulted on this point.
Does “termination of military operations” mean Israel’s military withdrawal from southern Lebanon? This is not likely to happen. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be able to withdraw Israeli troops for domestic political reasons – a large proportion of Israelis want to keep fighting Hezbollah and, at a minimum, stay in southern Lebanon.
I can see both sides respecting a ceasefire of sorts, but this conflict will definitely flare up again.
Point 5: An open Strait of Hormuz
Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman.
This point is really striking – it basically concedes to the Iranian regime that if it just waits 60 days, it can essentially start charging a service fee for traffic going in and out of the strait.
This deal puts Persian Gulf countries and Oman in a really challenging position. They have been under direct attack from Iran, and this agreement does not have any mechanism to guarantee their security going forward.
So, the Gulf countries may well decide it’s worth it to pay Iran a service fee in exchange for their security. For them, it’s better if their oil, gas and fertiliser shipments can get out, even if they are more expensive.
Point 6: A redevelopment plan for Iran
The United States undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least US$300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran.
The US itself is unlikely to put money into this fund. But this will be another leverage point for the Iranian regime vis-a-vis Gulf countries (who have been committed here as the “regional partners”). Iran will essentially say to them, “You need to fund our reconstruction as per this agreement, otherwise we will block the Strait of Hormuz and attack you again.”
The Gulf countries will come out of this war thinking first and foremost of their own territorial security and economic survival. They are likely to decide that the $300 billion reconstruction fund is a better prospect than the continued economic damage Iran can impart by threatening their security again.
The expectations on Gulf countries in this deal put them in a tricky position regarding the US.
On one hand, they need US military protection, so they are not going to overtly distance themselves from the US. But they are likely to try to diversify their partnerships and get closer to China, in particular.
Point 7 and 11: Lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets
The United States undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions…
The United States undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU.
The first problematic thing here is Washington can only unilaterally terminate US sanctions. In addition, it can only release frozen assets that are held in the US, which is a very small proportion of Iran’s overall frozen assets.
The US has no mechanism to deliver on the rest of the promises here, such as cancelling UN Security Council and IAEA sanctions resolutions.
The same goes for frozen assets. The only way for the US to deliver on this would be to pressure its allies through either coercive threats or incentives – and it does not seem there has been any consultation with them before signing this deal.
Point 8: The nuclear question
Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material […] with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran’s nuclear needs.
What is important here is that pursuing uranium enrichment is not specifically prohibited in this agreement. This implies it was a red line for the Iranian regime – it was not going to give up uranium enrichment for civilian purposes. As a result, the US has not included it in this agreement.
Iran’s broad commitment not to develop a nuclear weapon is something that already existed before the war.
Basically, the only detailed point in this part of the agreement is that it requires the Iranian regime to dilute its existing enriched uranium to secure sanctions relief.
This is not an incredible deal for the US. The US wanted the Iranian regime to give up enriching uranium completely. The deal stipulates the two sides will merely “discuss the issue of enrichment”. And yet, the US is giving up a huge amount in sanctions relief in return.
It’s unlikely more specific details on the nuclear issue will be agreed in the next 60 days. If we ever do get to an agreement, which is by no means assured, it would take months at a minimum and is not likely before the end of this year.
Jessica Genauer is Academic Director at the Public Policy Institute, UNSW Sydney.
Deirdre says
I doubt Trump will stop bombing Iran as long as there’s a profit in it, even though we’re running out of munitions. Apparently the war machine can’t keep up but big oil keeps raking in the profits so I think the war will go on, regardless of agreements.
Who would trust Trump to keep his word anyway? Isn’t this the same lunatic that wanted to destroy the Iranian civilization?
Is anyone surprised that we’re considered terrorists in that part of the world? Actions speak louder than words, we’ve been committing atrocities long before Hegseth.
He’s run our economy into the ground, and millions of people are going to starve worldwide because they didn’t have enough fertilizer when they needed it for planting crops, even if this ended today.
The worldwide famine is worse than paying more for gas at the pump, at least in my opinion, although that obviously affects MANY other things.
Not having the helium is going to be a huge problem for the tech industry also, it’s not just for balloons! Everyone in the world is suffering for his stupidity, we’ve never been weaker.
I’d say Netanyahu is definitely blackmailing Trump, I’m sure there’s a lot of dirt in those files, maybe some videos we haven’t seen yet? He’s going to follow directions from Israel no matter what he signs, and is always looking for the next grift. Imagine what the stock market is going to do when he starts dropping bombs again right before it opens, maybe on Monday morning?
The only way Netanyahu will quit bombing Lebanon, and every other country they want to acquire, is to eliminate Israel. I’m sure they’re not doing well economically! If it wasn’t for our tax dollars they would’ve been history a long time ago, and I’m enraged that I’m basically powerless about this.
As long as Israel exists there will be no peace, and the US government will continue to fund every atrocity they commit. How does a two state solution work when one of the states wants to murder you?
Our government was bought and paid for by the Israel lobby decades ago. We need to vote them all out, and end our ‘special’ relationship with Israel.
At this point every human being on the planet with eyes and a soul knows Israel is committing genocides, with the goal of destroying every country around them to expand. The ‘victim’ crap isn’t working the way it used to.
They have to be stopped, and Iran is the only hope the Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians and ultimately Turks have, although I think they’ll really regret messing with Turkey.
Part of the deal should be to not rebuild all the US bases Iran has destroyed, we need to get out of the Middle East before more blood is spilled.
And nukes? It seems apparent they weren’t developing them in the past, but they’d be stupid to not develop them now. As long as Israel has nukes, as long as the US has nukes with a sadistic psychopath with his finger on the button, they need to defend themselves. I’m not happy about that but I bet I’m right.
And the petrodollar? History, the balance of power has been changed forever which is just as well in my opinion, although I’m sure we’ll be feeling it economically BIG TIME in the very near future.
I don’t care what the stock market looks like today or what Trump signs, we’re screwed.
Samuel L. Bronkowitz says
Ah yes, signed at Versailles, too! Those of you that are victims of the florida k-12 system or are MAGA boomers might not realize that Versailles is where the Treaty of Versailles was signed back in June of 1919, effectively ending the war between Germany and the Allied powers. It’s generally considered to be one of the big reasons the Nazis rose to power, the concessions were pretty rough on the German people. And here we are, the losers, signing a treaty in June in Versailles with Iran. Keep on with those wins, Donald!
Laurel says
Samuel L. Bronkowitz: You certainly assume a lot about the Florida K-12 system or boomers. It doesn’t look good on you.
Deirdre says
Boomers didn’t vote for Trump at any greater percentage than any other group, yet somehow we’re blamed.
Have you been to any protests around here? I have, consistently almost all boomers, the same is true in Tennessee which is also a very red state.
I’m also a retired teacher so I don’t appreciate having Florida slammed for producing ignorant students. The people that teach in Florida are getting the some of the lowest wages in any state, so they’re not doing it for the money.
Al says
And so the hatred continues. If Trump bombs they yell he needs to stop and end this. If he tries to end the war then they yell he needs to attack more. The schizophrenia of the response is amazing. Do you want to stay at war so you can complain about the cost of gas and related items or do you want to try for peace?
Deirdre says
So you think the SAME PEOPLE that want Trump to quit bombing Iran are the same people that want it to continue? That people want to continue the war so they can complain about the cost of gas? Do you hear yourself?
Yes, the hatred continues, for good reason, but it’s not because we’re all schizophrenic.
Justbob says
30+ “end of war” promises are a bit much. Iran played him like a fiddle…a naked clothless fiddle.
Skibum says
Al, your “rationale” is amazingly ignorant of the facts. People are upset about this insane war because the smart military advisors and intelligence officials who have studied Iran’s military capabilities for years have warned against just such an attack because of the known probability of Iran closing the Straight of Hormuz to all shipping, significantly damaging the world’s economies. The only one who was stupid enough to be the cheerleader for this catastrophic “excursion” was imbecilic Pete Hegseth, a fauxinfotainment talking head and yes man to all things maga.
The idiot president had no choice but to cut bait and retreat with his pig tail between his cankled legs. Just because he is backtracking and trying to put out the unnecessary worldwide fire he started doesn’t make him a hero! A person who starts a fire and then grabs a hose to put it out isn’t a fireman or a hero… he is just an arsonist with a hose.
And those who continue to support him are NO patriots either! You and others in this cult are delusional sheeple who should be ashamed of yourselves… if you had any shame.
PaulT says
Is Trump Kool-Aid Syndrome incurable, irreversable?
Surely by now eveyone realizes thath to indulge p0isons weak brains so why is no one researching a cure, maybe an MRNA vaccine?
Skibum says
Unfortunately, I fear the only cure for those who so willingly defend the defenseless actions of Generalisimo Bone Spurs is a lobotomy, then chemical castration to prevent more off springs like them.
You know, it’s funny and sad at the same time that many of the immigrants this corrupt, ignorant administration has been working so hard to exclude from the U.S. have much more to give this country and are exceedingly more patriotic than the maga sheeple who stand barefoot in the dirt in front of their trailers, beer bellies sticking out to show off their crusty used clothing, screaming “get the hell out of my country!”
JimboXYZ says
It didn’t last long, breaking news Iran to close Strait of Hormuz, allegations/claims are Israel couldn’t abide by the cease fire. Everything that was negotiated is null & void.
PaylT says
Do we need an innnocent child to blurt out that the emperor really, transparently has no clothes when he,is Trump-eting his ‘Huge’ victorious ‘Deal’ (actually a shaky peace plan which is pretty much a surrendering to Iran)
Because, as usual, he failed to fullfil his promises:
“The US will no longer engage in costly foreign wars!” rapidly turned into multiple threats and conflicts across the world then TWO attacks on Iran. The second an unannounced and undeclared war started on Feb 28th and Trump made certain claims and promises. Were they fulfilled?
A three week operation? NO
Regime change? NO,
Freedom for the opressed Iranian people? NO
Unconditional surrender by Iran? NO
Mission accomplished? NO
Send Iran back to the Stone Age? NO
Iran’s nuclear program annihilated? NO – but we’ll discuss that later!
Instead, in return for re-opening the Straits of Hormuz Iran gains:
All sanctions against Iran Dropped. The US blockade Dropped. $ billions in frozen funds Released, And the US will set up a $300 billion fund to rebuild Iran.
Yet as I write this the straits are once again closed because Trump has no control over his ally, Israel, which seeks to controle the entirety of it’s neighbour Lebanon.
For those unfamiliar with the allegory ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’ I suggest you look it up. Trump is a perfect fit for this role where a child blurts out the truth whjch the adults are too scared to speak.
But in Florida it will need to be a brave,open minded and intelligent child who exposes Trump to the mind numbed MAGA faithful since the school system here has also switched from truth in education to indoctrination.
Justbob says
Please, please…a clothless Emperor Trump is a vision too much to endure.
BillC says
Don’t worry… there’s very little to see anyway!
Daddy's Home says
Color me shocked, not a word about plummeting oil prices? From the crowd that jumped up and down 2 months ago about Brent pricing?
Pierre Tristam says
Maybe the predictable re-closure of Hormuz following Israel’s even more predictable bloodlust in Lebanon cautioned against putting too much stock in anything that has Caligula Minor’s fingerprints.
DaleL says
To Daddy’s Home:
The price of crude oil is down, but it’s not down to the price before Mr. Trump began his ill advised war against Iran. As I write this, it is still $12 a barrel higher. In addition, will anyone be getting a refund on the money his war has cost US drivers. That cost to our economy is about 40 billion dollars. Our military has spent about 30 billion on the war so far. Then there is the ongoing cost of the inflation that his war has cost consumers. Trump’s war isn’t even over. A “cease fire” is not a peace agreement. As long as Trump and his incompetent appointees are in charge, America will be on its way to becoming a third world country.
As with just about everything with Trump, his “Art of the Deal” is just another scam.
The latest bizarre Trump lie concerns the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni. Trump wrote on social media Saturday (today): “Italian Prime Minister Gigiorgia Meloni asked, over and over, for a picture with me during the G-7 meeting in France.” Trump is a blatant liar. Only a complete idiot would believe him. He even misspelled the prime minister’s first name.
PaulT says
And here we have ‘Daddy’ who has already forgotten that Trump ( and Netanyahu) started this war which caused the oil prices to soar.Let us hope his kids canwill be allowed to speak the truth about Trump’s suit of clothes.
Deirdre says
Think oil prices are going to stay down? Our Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been depleted to its lowest levels since the Reagan administration, when it runs out you’ll really see what oil prices really look like.
We technically have plenty of oil in the US, but when there’s less oil in the world, oil companies will be making the best deals to maximize their own profits, not for US interests.
Also, did anyone really believe that Israel would stop bombing Lebanon? It’s not over until they do, meaning it’s going to be a long, long time before it’s over. Israel is calling the shots here.
Even if it was over, it will take many months to get things up and running in the straight of Hormuz, and many years to put back everything the way it used to be, in terms of the infrastructure that’s been destroyed.
My hope is that the world will develop better energy sources and give up our dependence on petroleum, which is literally destroying the future of our planet. I hope something good can come out of this, but anyone that thinks this problem is over is not seeing the big picture.
Skibum says
Yeah right, LOL. People like me were holding our breath, but alas, we didn’t have to hold it for long. The Straight of Hormuz is closed yet again, Iran claims… ballistic missiles and attack drones at the ready.
You were saying???
Dennis C Rathsam says
BIG DADDY!!! When you hate someone, like these fools, reality goes out the window! TRUMP could cure cancer,but the jackasses would say :YOU STARTED IT: They all bitched about the pool too. Theyve blamed TRUMP for the vandalism….Such vile people, inflicted with TDS! Ill enjoy the cheap gas & the greatest stock market in history. Ill enjoy the next two yrs of TRUMP haters drooling from the mouth, lying, comp;ainling, while the donkeys turning into a socialist ass. Name 1 country where it worked?
Pogo says
“…As long as Israel exists there will be no peace…”
Not the first time, nor only source on this site — bookmarked, let the time of forgetting begin, again.
PaulT says
Ah Pogo. Then how about this:-
‘There w ill be no peacein the Middle East unless/until the people of Israel reject it’s militant right wing (dare I say pro Zionist) stance, until Israel starts to respects it’s neighbors’ and their borders (and the tights of Palestinians within it’s own war gained borders). Israel must learn to use diplomacy instead of ,instictive violent retaliation at the drop of a hat which results in killing, invasions and terrorizing innocent neighboring civilian.
Israel will not see peace until it changes it’s ways,because it is not the only country (or community) in the region that claims and has the right to self defense..
Pogo says
Sell bullshit somewhere else, “…As long as Israel exists…” is totally unambiguous.
Are you a Liberterian Party member, Scientologist, a plethora of other afflictions are available; or just obseesive and compulsive in your hostility and hatred for Israel? You’re free to chew on your bait yourself as often as you please, and forever, for all I care.
I’ve been online since the start of Usenet, BBS, and CompuServe; this comment is now a clip I can provide to you with no trouble.
PaulT says
I share the view of many born and educated in Europe, an opinion endorsed by many European (and other) countries.
The view that the IDF under Netanyahu has committed multiple, systemic war crimes, has murdered thousands of civilians, men, women and children.
Continental Europe was relatively peaceful during it’s occupation by the the Axis powers (after they invaded) though the retaliation for any resistance was disproportionate and brutal. That is how Israel is behaving towards it’s neighbors and the resident of the Palestinian territories under Israeli control. Is that the right way?.
The Holocaust was real and beyond awful, it should never be allowed to happen again, but lingering guilt and sympathy for Jewish people does not cancel out or justify the brutality of a nation in which before it’s founding certain elements embarked on civil war because they refused to accept the borders their fledgling country’s leaders had agreed with the United Nations.
Of course Israel had and has the right to defend it’s own lawful borders but now the claim of defense seem to be ever expanding to defense and occupation of arbitrary buffer and protection zones as well as pre-emptive attacks on perceived enemies far beyond ir’s borders,
Israel is a heavily militarized bully state, just like Russia and now the United States. You may chose to defend them but I claim my First Amendment rightc to to condemn militarism in any form. Military force should be a last resort to be used only after arbitration and real diplomatic efforts have been tried and have clearly failed.
(Trump style threats to destroy anyoneone who doesn’t comply with his demands is definitely not diplomacy, it is flat out bullying)
.
Pogo says
As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly.
Proverbs 26:11, KJV
EC: File
Pogo says
Corrected Clip
Pogo says
June 20, 2026 at 7:22 pm
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Sell bullshit somewhere else, “…As long as Israel exists…” is totally unambiguous.
Are you a Libertarian Party member, Scientologist, a plethora of other afflictions are available; or just obsessive and compulsive in your hostility and hatred for Israel? You’re free to chew on your bait yourself as often as you please, and forever, for all I care.
I’ve been online since the start of Usenet, BBS, and CompuServe; this comment is now a clip I can provide to you with no trouble.
BillC says
Keep up the good work Pogo! Your self-righteous amoral contemptable pseudo-intellectual “dog vomit” laced assertions and bigotry are helping to turn the tide of support for Israel. Keep waving that Israeli flag of intolerance and Lebensraum!
“Unfavorable views of Israel have risen sharply to 60%, up from 42% in 2022, with 45% of voters believing Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Consequently, majorities now oppose additional U.S. military aid, and support for a two-state solution remains stable at 57%.”
— (Pew, April 2026)
Tired of it says
If he hadn’t been so jealous of Pres. Obama and honored the treaty the US and its allies had worked so hard to achieve…none of this disaster would have happened. No money for healthcare for Americans but billions for a war started to deflect from the Epstein files. Only magas will thinks this agreement is anything but surrender.
Dennis C Rathsam says
THROWING MONEY at the problem only got more Americans killed! Thanks Obama, for nothing