Flagler Unemployment Stable at 5.5%, But Underlying Trends Mirror Sharp Decline in Consumer Confidence

Flagler County’s unemployment rate remained stable at 5.6 percent in July, just a fraction higher than June’s 5.5 percent rate, but still significantly higher than it was a year ago (5 percent) and two years ago (4.5 percent). 

The Florida unemployment rate declined a fraction, to 4.6 percent. The state rate is seasonally adjusted. The local rate is not. 

The higher unemployment rate in Flagler County was due to a decline of 250 people in the workforce (to 56,353), an equal decline in the number of Flagler County residents holding jobs (53,469), and an uptick in the number of residents receiving unemployment (3,134). None of the indicators point to a positive trend even as the unemployment rate remained relatively flat. 

The labor force is almost unchanged from a year ago, suggesting that working-age families and families with children have not moved into the county in significant numbers. 

That won’t help the school district, which has been battling against a continuing erosion of its enrollment as private and homeschool options have expanded, and as the state, starting in 2023, made private-school vouchers universal: any student of any economic background is eligible to receive $8,000 and up, each year, in tax dollars, to attend private or parochial school, or to be homeschooled. 

When students returned for the new school year, the Flagler County school district showed traditional enrollment in its nine schools, excluding virtual students and pre-kindergarten students, at 12,149, the lowest enrollment since the 2018-19 school year. It also showed kindergarten enrollment at 732, a 10 percent decline from May 2019 figures. The district boosts enrollment numbers by including pre-K students and the more than 900 students at Imagine School at Town Center, a privately-run, publicly-funded charter school. 

The surge in the labor force between 2019 and 2025, when it grew by almost 10,000, helped keep the district’s enrollment flat even as the net increase in school-age children opted for other options. That surge has tapered off as has, it appears, what had propped up the district’s figures. 

If the labor force is not growing for now, the housing market is still active, continuing the last many years’ trend: retirees are accounting for the majority of homebuyers. Buyers are also taking advantage of the last months remaining before voters will decide whether to approve Amendment 3. It would raise the homestead exemption to $250,000 by 2028. 

But out-of-state buyers would be barred from benefiting from the new exemption for five years–unless they bought before the new standard kicked in–assuming it did (passage of the amendment is not guaranteed). Some may be choosing to buy now. The 309 closed sales for single family houses recorded in Flagler County in June were the highest single-month total in three years, with the median sale price at $386,800, according to the Flagler County Association of Realtors. 

That median price has been flat since 2021, which means it has eroded significantly when inflation is taken into account: A $386,800 value today would have been $315,000 in 2021, when adjusted for inflation. It is also another telling indicator of declining property values in Palm Coast and Flagler County, the first decline in 14 years. 

So while unemployment, enrollment and median price figures may look relatively stable, the trends behind them are not, and may explain why consumer confidence in Florida declined for the fifth consecutive month in July, according to the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. It fell 2.1 points to 69.3 from a revised figure of 71.4 in June. In contrast, national consumer sentiment increased. 

“With July’s decline, consumer sentiment has reached its lowest reading since December 2023, following five consecutive months of deterioration,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the program. “The last time confidence declined for such a prolonged period was in 2022, when consumer sentiment fell for seven consecutive months as inflation accelerated rapidly and ultimately reached its highest level since 1981. While the current situation is far less severe, the comparison underscores the important role inflation continues to play in shaping consumer confidence. Although recent inflation data showed some moderation, price pressures have remained above the Federal Reserve’s target and intensified during the first half of 2026 following the energy shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, many Floridians continue to face pressure on their household budgets, contributing to the decline in consumer sentiment.” 

Expectations for personal financial situations a year from now experienced the steepest drop, falling 3.8 points from 83.9 to 80.1. Expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next year declined 1.3 points from 69.8 to 68.5.