For the first time in 14 years, average taxable property values in Flagler County and its cities fell in 2026, outside of new construction. The decline, the clearest indication yet that the housing market has cooled sharply, will have significant revenue and tax policy consequences for local governments as they prepare their budgets for next year.
One of those consequences is on the tax rate. The decline nullifies arguments among some elected officials to roll back taxes by adopting the so-called rolled-back tax rate since for the first time in a decade and a half, local governments would have to increase their tax rate to stay even: the rollback rate will be a roll-up rate.
The decline affects every taxing authority in the county, including Palm Coast, Flagler Beach and the school district, with one exception: Beverly Beach, where average taxable values went up 2.86 percent, according to Flagler County Property Appraiser Jay Gardner’s calculations in figures obtained by FlaglerLive today.
Average taxable values declined 1 percent in Palm Coast, compared to a 4 percent increase last year, a decline of 1 percent in Bunnell, 2 percent in Flagler Beach, 1.44 percent for the school district and 0.4 percent in the county.
In each case, new construction, which is not counted in property tax rate calculations, is compensating enough to yield an overall average increase in property values and help government revenue at least hold the line. But it is still the lowest increase since 2013, and without new construction, the first decline since 2012.
“Everybody wants to bitch about new construction,” Gardner says. “Well, there’s the net benefit of it right there. What is that, like a 4 percent swing?”
For example, while taxable values in Palm Coast fell 1 percent, new construction generated more than half a billion dollars in new value, about the same as last year, for a net increase of 3.81 percent in taxable values, compared to 9.3 percent last year.
In its first year on the books, new construction tax revenue is like free money for local governments. It does not figure in tax rate calculations, so it does not affect the rollback rate.
The rollback tax rate is the rate at which the government would collect the same amount of money this year as it did the previous year, excluding new construction. In other words–and putting it very simply, without accounting for homestead and other exemptions–if your house value increases by 3 percent, the tax rate must decrease by 3 percent to ensure that you do not pay more taxes than you did the previous year.
Last year, chances are your property value did increase between 3 and 4 percent. You may have paid marginally higher taxes, but if you are homesteaded, you probably saw a negligible increase, if at all. It’s a different story for non-homesteaded properties like commercial tracts and rental properties, which bear a disproportionate share of property taxes.
The tax rate Palm Coast adopted for the 2026 budget was 4.0893, or $4.0893 per $1,000 in taxable value. Under Florida law, it was a slight tax increase, because the rate still generates more revenue in 2026 than it had in 2025, outside of new construction. Projected revenue was $39.5 million for the general fund.
Had Palm Coast voted for rollback, that rate would have been 3.9961.
Here’s why the rollback rate would have to increase this year to stay even with current revenue: now that property values have fallen 1 percent, tax revenue will fall accordingly–by about $400,000. To stay even, the tax rate would have to go up to around 4.03606 next year to generate the same $39.5 million it generated in 2026.
Doing so would not be a tax increase under Florida law. But to the general public, any increase in the tax rate is a tax increase, and any tax decrease in the rate is a tax cut. That exasperates Gardner, the property appraiser, who every year tries to inform the public that the rate itself is not indicative of tax increases or decreases. Only the total revenue the government is generating compared to the previous year is indicative–and whether the tax rate falls above or below rollback (or, in this case, the rolled-up) rate.
For elected officials, especially elected officials in an election year, the numbers are grim news any way they take them, because even if they want to hold the line on revenue without a tax increase, they’ll be branded as tax-increasing politicians. If they cut the tax rate, they would be going well below rollback, when even staying at rollback would pose a challenge for governments trying to pay for police, fire, parks and the rest of it while maintaining reserves against an unsettled economic and political environment: the Legislature is at this moment deciding whether to place a measure on the November ballot that would severely reduce or scrap homesteaded property taxes.
Why the first decline in values in 14 years?
“It’s just the economy. People are scared. The Covid buying spurt has ended,” Gardner said, recalling previous years when values shot up, pushing prices up. “The demand goes up, the value goes up, maybe it overshoots a little bit. Now the demand is down a little bit, maybe because they all already moved here or they’re scared to move because they don’t know what’s happening next or some of the economy stuff. I even wondered if the rich folks ain’t moving because they’re doing so good in the stock market, they don’t want to pull out. Who the hell knows. There’s a lot of moving parts and I don’t claim to understand it.”
He added, “at the end of the day, what’s different? Well, the sale prices aren’t going up like they were. The demand has fallen some. If the interest rates were to go way down, we’d be having a totally different discussion right now.”
Deborah Coffey says
Thanks, Trump. Just another way you are breaking Americans…many of whom voted for you for just the opposite reason. Yes, MAGAs, you voted for this and we are all paying the price but, you can change your minds in November before things get even worse.
Linda says
Agreed 👍💯
Jim Dandy says
We need Dementia Joe back!
The dude says
Don Snoreleone isn’t dementia addled enough for you?
john stove says
Economy sucks….inflation is up, gas is up, groceries are up, health insurance is up….people are nervous about buying homes with so much uncertainty. The stock market being at record highs IS NOT and indication of a booming economy (unless you are wealthy and play the market.
What could have cause this you say?…..idiot, imbecile, war starting, lying, convicted and impeached with the orange face paint that is the worst president in the history of the United States.
Cue the cult people now who will defend this idiot with “yeah..but Biden”….or “yeah..but Hilary’s emails”
J Yellen says
Its Putin’s price hike and the inflation is transitory silly goose. Pass the Chinese shrooms.
Atwp says
Will this be another 2007 through 2009. I hope not but time will tell.
Mark Webb says
Our Mayor and Vice Mayor both said several
times during Palm Coast City meetings that our property prices are to high.
Soon, everyone can afford a home in this city.
At the cost of all of us home owners.
You can verify this on youtube for yourself.
Dennis C Rathsam says
TRUMP is the dam nation for everything! THANK YOU!
The dude says
Magic beans…
PaulT says
Yes Dennis, Trump is indeed the instrument of our damnation.
From the very start of his second term we enter an age of uncertainty and personal insecurity so the property market froze then sale prices dropped.
The job market began it’s tumble as soon as Trump took office so he fired the head of the nation’s Bureau of Statistics in a ‘shoot the messenger’ moment. Does anyone really think we can trust Trump’s employment reports any more?
Meanwhile the booming stock market is based entirely on AI investment gambles, it is no longer an indicator of economic health..The introduction of AI has already caused layoffs in the tech industry and as it is rapidly developed AI will soon start to eat away at manufacturing. retail and service industry jobs.
Trump’s (illegal) tariffs and careless wars have raised the cost of living far more than the government’s inflation numbers are prepared to admit and of course market value of homes has declined. We’re sliding into recession masked by the frenzied casino the stock market has become, as lobs disappear, personal and government debt is rising and labor mobility has evaporated. We’re in a trap created by Trump and his preferred business practice, spend and borrow until the lenders scream……then default.
Sherry says
Huge THANK YOU, Paul T!! Right On!
FlaPharmTech says
He sure is a damnation. Dennis, go away.
Tutter says
Gardner promotes higher taxes at every public meeting he speaks at. Scary he is in charge of valuation of homes. He loves taxes and new growth.
“Everybody wants to bitch about new construction,” Gardner says. “Well, there’s the net benefit of it right there. What is that, like a 4 percent swing?”
Jay Gardner says
I’m certainly not in favor of higher property taxes.. I guess you don’t realize how it works. When the values went up the taxing authorities should have lowered their tax rate. When there is 750 million in new construction they should lower the tax rates. I’m not the person spending your money. I am not against growth. Sorry we disagree on that point. In my 48 years here I have seen a lot of changes some good and some bad. But I did not complain when you moved here. I’m glad that there is more shopping and things to do. I did support a sales tax increase to fund our beaches if that makes me guilty.
Blame somebody says
Blame Trump…..
Blame Biden ,,,
Blame Obama ….
Guess what?
The thousands of “high paying job coming promised by the local officials really don’t materialize either…….
Vicious cycle of blame game
Think about truth says
Jay Gardner, thank you for speaking truth about the housing market. It’s so hard to talk to sellers when they are thinking of selling their home. Tell them the market is down these last years since Covid spiked them sky high- they run to the next agent who tells them what they want to hear. Then end up selling for less than you suggested, once they’ve gone through an agent or two.
Think about it says
Everyone seems quick to blame President Trump for every problem, while President Biden is rarely held accountable for the consequences of his own administration’s policies. Critics often overlook the impact that pandemic-era shutdowns, massive government spending, and stimulus programs had on inflation, economic uncertainty, and market distortions.
Another topic that often receives little attention is the alleged misuse of taxpayer funds by certain nonprofit organizations that received government money during the Biden administration. As investigations continue in various states, questions are being raised about oversight, accountability, and whether public funds were used appropriately. Yet, many still insist that every problem can be traced back to Trump.
As for the issue being discussed here—declining property values in Flagler County—the basic principle of supply and demand cannot be ignored. When thousands of new homes are approved and built within a relatively short period, the increased housing supply can put downward pressure on prices, particularly if buyer demand begins to slow.
Since President Trump returned to the White House, migration patterns from some states have appeared to cool compared to previous years. Whether that trend continues remains to be seen, but many potential buyers and movers seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach as economic and political conditions continue to evolve.
Ray W. says
Actually, Think about it, from the reporting based on court records of the prosecution of the fraudulent Minnesota non-profit ringleader, who happens to be an American, the misuse of taxpayer funds by the non-profit began in 2018, during the first Trump administration. The fraud greatly accelerated late in 2020 after new quantities of unfunded stimulus money that you refer to became available in 2020, funding that was caused by the pandemic.
The ringleader was recently ordered to repay over $240 million and she was sentenced to more than 40 years in prison. The over $240 million in restitution was close to the amount of money the ringleader had fraudulently taken and then fraudulently distributed to accomplices.
But I agree with you that state investigators were the persons lax in providing oversight on the disbursements. During sentencing, it was revealed that in 2018 a state of Minnesota agency oversight auditor had flagged problems with the woman’s Minnesota non-profit; the auditor recommended a follow-up investigation. No one in the state agency followed up on that recommendation.
Even mentioning the Biden administration without mentioning the Trump administration is misleading under the facts presented during the ringleader’s sentencing. Personally, I argue that the proper argument is to blame the lack of follow-up on one or more supervisors of the state agency. We should all leave national politics out of it, but that’s just me.
But Winston Churchill, in his History of the English Speaking Peoples, had something to say on the subject of actual causation, as opposed to the subject of reckless blame. After a year of plague that had swept through London, he then described the Great Fire of 1666 that destroyed over 13,000 London residences and 89 churches.
Churchill writes:
“It broke out near London Bridge, in a narrow street of wooden houses, and, driven by a strong east wind, the flames spread with resistless fury for four whole days. Wild suspicions that the fire was the work of Anabaptists, Catholics, or foreigners maddened the mob.”
After the passage of 340 years, the English-speaking people have learned nothing about the societal harm that can come from improvident blame driving a mob to virulent and hateful and wrongful allegations of causation.
The law recognizes the concept of causation. Not just any causation, though, but proximate or direct causation.
The proximate cause of the Minnesota fraud was an American woman who created a non-profit that was to provide meals to hungry children. She started stealing money by filing claims of fictitious feedings of fictitious children. When she evaded an audit, she set out to fraudulently steal even more money. She began to recruit people to help her with creating even more fictitious hungry children and even more fictitious feeding events.
Her fraud was finally identified late in 2021 and federal prosecutions began in 2022. Nearly 80 accomplices have been charged, most of them Somali, but not all, and more than 60 have been convicted.
But the political impetus to lie about the woman’s fraud for political gain did not arise until 2024. The proximate cause so necessary to convict does not matter to those willing to lie for political gain. Any type of suspicious causation would do, no matter how wild the claim, because the pestilential among us do not care about who did what.
Sherry says
Thank you for “correcting the thinking” about the blaming of President Biden, Ray W.
Everything is relative. . . and, NOTHING compares to trump’s grifting corruption and self enrichment!!!
Show me the money says
Can you please list some examples that are based on fact and not rumor or radical propaganda or unsubstantiated opinions ?
Deborah Coffey says
If you want to be an American, do your own homework! There are hundreds of FACTS that clearly show Trump’s complete and consistent corruption.
Deborah Coffey says
Nope. Over 500 American historians and political scientists ranked Joe Biden at 14th best president and Trump as dead last year after year in presidential rankings. This is an easy Google. This IS ALL Trump’s doing as was his first time. It’s right in front of our eyes.
Show me the money says
That’s why the party yanked him off the ticket and without any delegates voting selected and installed Kamala Harris as the parties candidate.
Laurel says
The Democrat Party betrayed Biden.
Richard says
You’re blaming Trump for falling property values? You had a ridiculous rise in property values in Florida due to covid and the flight South. That migration IS OVER so now you’re gonna have to deal with reality.
PaulT says
Trump is a ‘Lord of Chaos’.
His day to day management is based on (often irrational) impulse, barely thought through decisions are followed by proclamations and executive orders while government departments struggle to keep up and implement these edicts. Then Trump reacts to the disruption caused by his most recent decision, or comment or social media post with a change of direction or a reversal. He is impatient, quick to anger and retaliate.
This unpredictability does not promote stability or confidence. A lot of people are hanging on to their jobs and homes in the North East and Mid West, delaying retirement rather than fulfil that dream of a move to the sunny south. At the same time wages are too low and home prices too high for first ti. me buyers as long as ‘Trump uncertainty’ keeps mortgage rates high.
Of course housing demand is down and pricoperty prices are slumping.
Ed Danko, former Vice-Mayor PC says
The last thing we need is a tax increase. Instead, Palm Coast and Flagler governments need to reduce their wasteful spending for once. Each department can cut spending by a few percentage, and our elected officials need to only focus on the “must haves” and not the “wants.” This is the perfect time for our local bureaucrats to prepare for the coming major homestead tax reductions that will certainly be on the ballot in November!
Just say'n says
Well trump sure did it this time.He made all thoes people from them high tax blue states come down here to buy up all the housing and forcing all the new building going up driving everyone nuts.I just can’t believe that trump would force all thoes blue state governments to tax there people so much they had to move away. It’s amazing trump had so much power over these states and can’t seem to force his agendas through yet can somehow force the blue states legislators to tax there citizens enough to move.Trump is definitely the problem with blue states I understand now.
Taxpayer says
Trump and his Cabinet have scared the American people since he is destroying the economy and doing nothing to improve a thing for the people of our country.
People see taxpayers are paying the price for his greed and his parties greed.
Check his approval rating that tells it all.
T says
Thanks trump maga and Republicans fl is in crap wish more people would vote blue and see how better it is but they need to be told what to be mad at and what to think and etc
JimboXYZ says
Who could’ve ever predicted the Vision of 2050 (Alfinville) was never going to pay for itself ? And now we’re stuck with more approved growth that will never pay for itself. This is what happens when the leadership buys for an “all in” on Bidenomics. We all knew Biden’s “soft landing” was going to crash hard. We still haven’t felt the cherry picked & reported inflation of Biden-Harris with Trump-Vance. Anyone th9ink Biden-Harris-Walz was getting even as good as 2025, is impaired.
NJ says
All you CLOWNS who said NO to heavy industry coming to Palm Coast will CRY the Loudest because of the Property Tax INCREASE! Palm Coast NEEDS a Balanced Tax Base NOW!! Time for our RINO leadership to STUDY Economics 101.
Mothersworry says
You are right!! Residential development is always a drain on cities It never pays for itself.
Most all the jobs are “entry level” yet folks think they can make a career with them.
Chicken Little says
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Hank says
They will sink even more once the d a t a c e n t e r is completed. No one wants to live near those environmental hazards. Living with more light pollution, sucking up our water, and generating a constant hum? No thank you. The city spokesperson is nothing but a lobbyist at this point.
Keep Flagler Beautiful says
The answer is not raising taxes; it’s cutting costs, and that should start with the lavish salaries paid to white-collar government employees. We are a very small county with only around 140,000 people, yet our government administrators and even office paper-pushers are paid MUCH higher salaries and given far more generous retirement packages than their counterparts in Miami, Orlando or Tampa. It’s an “old boys” club, and for decades they’re irresponsibly allowed developers to get away with murder at the expense of taxpayers. Any builders who bulldoze our land, trees and other flood-mitigating barriers to erect quarter-acre houses should have to pay UPFRONT for schools, roads, lighting, utilities and environmental impact. It should not be left up to taxpayers to assume that burden or for bonds to be floated that would force the county or cities to hold the bag on new debt. Flagler should make it clear to anyone who comes here to gobble up some of the last unspoiled land in Florida, for any reason at all, that they will have to pay mightily before a single spadeful of dirt is turned over.
NJ says
Yes, the EVIL Corrupt Realtor, Contractor, Developer CARTEL must be REMOVED from Flagler County-NOW!
Keep Flagler Beautiful says
Keep your shirt on, NJ. Yes, the “evil…cartel must be removed,” to use your words, but to correct your overreach, it does not include realtors. It consists of contractors and developers who come to Flagler to do a hit-and-run, and incompetent and/or gullible public officials who, in some cases, have sold out local homeowners to make those contractors and developers very happy. Those officials who hand the keys to the kingdom to bulldozer bullies who don’t even live here and who have nothing to lose–including the value of their own homes and degradation of air, water and landscape–should not be allowed to fraternize with contractors or developers any more than they should be able to vote on matters in which they might have a financial interest. The disgraced former chair of the Flagler County Commission, Joe Mullins, even posted images and crowed on social media about his friendship with a high-profile attorney who represented many developers involved in deals on which Mullins voted–always, or almost always, voting in favor of the developers. Thankfully, Flagler County Commission is now the best it has been in more than a decade. Also, some of the overpaid government administrators referenced in my original posting have moved on, enriched with profits from real estate transactions that, in my opinion, never should have been approved without prior public disclosure and review. Funny how they always retire right after their deal is approved. So they not only profit from the symbiotic environment within the government center, they also retire with one of the most overly-generous government employee retirement packages in Florida.
RobdaSlob says
Setting aside which President to blame….
This drop in home values is really not significant to the County. The new home builds will offset it and the County can expect to take in the same amount, if not more this coming year. It would take a sustained decline of 15% or more or a significant drop of 25% or more (2008) before meaningful impact would be felt. You can gripe all you want but Flagler County is generally pretty conservative with their finances with public services first (police, fire, etc) and then a focus on building up reserves. We would all like to see more infrastructure but we also don’t want to pay for it.
It is a good reminder that the County’s funding (and local city’s) is slave to home values. It is probably sustainable in my life time but it is also ripe for the picking for the politicians.
But here’s some thing it got me to thinking…
This county is going to continue to have increased housing – the joke that it will become one big housing track is probably closer to reality than we want to admit. So why do we have a separate county government, Bunnel city government, Flagler beach city government, and Palm Coast? This county/city approach always felt very feudal to me. Why not just one entity – heck we could do away with 3 out of 4 county/city managers right there and save close to 3/4 million dollars. Let alone duplicate Human Resources, IT departments, etc. One fire department (Flagler Beach is already paying palm coast to staff one of the shifts). One police department.
I get it – don’t want o lose local control but something to think about.
Laurel says
No, thank you. The Hammock pays enough, and doesn’t need to take on Palm Coast problems and ridiculous rules.
Nope.
seymor says
A dollar in 2020, at the start of Covid, is now $1.28 in 2026. And we’ll likely see high inflation again this year. My tax bill hasn’t gone up 28%. My tax bill has barely gone up even though the cost of living has and the value of my home has increased significantly. That’s a free ride in my book…
I do like the quality of life of here and that takes money to maintain. Maybe the complainers are just bad at math or something???
JimboXYZ says
The “Save Our Homes” capped FL Proprerty taxes at 3% per year. That has been protecting anyone with a homesteaded property in Flagler County. Palm Coast is primarily a rental income duplex-ville and those aren’t protected. Trust me on this the utility bill for water management continues to go up 8% to pay for STF’s and the water crisis in Flagler County.
Look at property tax on any Zillow listing online to see the history of that property tax for other cities. The Radient project in Yulee/Nassau County of FL, property taxes doubled under Bidenomics. That would apply here for the Westward expansion that recently & ceremoniously had it’s groundbreaking make the news.
We’ve been paying inflation which also provides tax revenue for these services. Imagine a county full of cities firing new hires every year and having to rehire for that position at inflated salary & whatever the costs for the search to find the next short timer for the position(s). Meanwhile the Homestead Exemption doesn’t pace inflation, doesn’t pace the doubling of property assessments. Just odd that taxation can be tied to follow the CPI Index rate, yet the tax breaks for homeowners can’t follow that same CPI Index rate ?
“Understanding Florida’s 3% Property Tax Increase Cap
Save Our Homes Amendment
In Florida, the “Save Our Homes” amendment plays a crucial role in property tax assessments for homesteaded properties. Here are the key points:
Annual Increase Limit: The assessed value of homesteaded properties can only increase by a maximum of 3% per year or the rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), whichever is lower.
Market Value vs. Assessed Value: This cap ensures that even if the market value of a home rises significantly, the assessed value for tax purposes remains controlled, preventing sudden spikes in property taxes.
Implications for Homeowners
Tax Stability: Homeowners benefit from predictable tax increases, allowing for better financial planning.
Reassessment Upon Sale: When a homesteaded property is sold, the assessed value resets to the current market value, which may lead to a significant increase in property taxes for the new owner.”
Many earned their life savings in an era where Bidenomics of Hyperinflation wasn’t what their salaries/wages have now become. I’d have no problem with it if the holdings in anyone’s bank account(s) were adjusted for inflation, but don’t hold your breath for that to happen in anyone’s lifetime. It’s no secret that the domestic dollar became even more worthless under Bidenomics. And that’s where we are, locked in to that inflation index. It’s easy to say services & quality of life need to be maintained. But in traffic & road quality alone that’s nonsense. The last time Belle Terre was paved was under Trump, not Biden. And the Alfinville, FL growth model just wore that sureface down to needing patchwork repairs for roads that really need to be repaved with all the new residential approved & built in the Biden-Harris era. So we all paid for this already before Biden, during Biden & after Biben, yet somehow we sit in gridlock on roads that at best are microsurfaced to avoi having to actually repave Belle Terre & every other road in Flagler County. The State Roads (SR-100) that was repaved, as new residential & commercial was being built, that was torn up & repaved. Do the same stretch of road for every commercial tax break the commissions were awarding. Boston Whaler will shut down operations in Flagler this summer, the “good” jobs that never was a long term reality. And guess who is stuck paying for that ?
JimboXYZ says
Bankruptcies & foreclosures (mortgage & auto loans) did nothing but follow Bidenomics of hyperinflation. One day you’ll figure it out ?, that we paid throughout, are paying & will be paying for Biden-Harris for the rest of our lives. Biden-Harris tax base continues to grow even under Trump-Vance & the next economic experts we get in 2028. It’s a never ending trend that grows like a taxation cancer. It’s about stealing your life savings & home, more so than it is about improving anything. Anyone that ever had a automobile repossessed has to buy another vehicle after recovering from the cycle of theft that was Bidenomics. Keeps the parastitic lawyers working in a litigious economy. It’s why the Home Builder’s Association is suing City of Palm Coast over the impact fees that the government increased. They don’t want to pay their share of it. There’s no shortage of building materials, never was, never will be. The affordable housing ushered in unaffordable housing on steroids. And it’s all profit driven greed. The gas prices increased like it did, not because we don’t have the oil ? It’s just a continuation of Bidenomics.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-bankruptcies-surged-18-2023-seen-rising-again-2024-report-2024-01-03/
HMMM says
I bumped my knee and spilled my coffee this morning. Trump’s fault!!!
Jay Tomm says
I don’t really care……I’m not selling my house as I can’t afford a new one. I’ll rent it out though.
Property values should only concern 2 types of people. Those looking to sell their home & MOVE. Or flippers.