Florida Democrats Flip Two Key Legislative Seats In Biggest Special Election Victory In Recent Years

Florida Democrats flipped two legislative seats Tuesday night in their biggest election night in years.

In the only state Senate election on the ballot, Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran, union organizer, and first-time candidate, shocked Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow in the Hillsborough County Senate District 14 contest, winning by just 408 votes, taking 50.25% of the vote to Tomkow 49.75%.

Tomkow said she will run again for the seat in November.

The seat has been vacant since August, when Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed GOP incumbent Jay Collins to serve as his lieutenant governor.

Tomkow had a huge fundraising lead over Nathan and was a heavy favorite in a district that Collins won by 10 points in 2022, the last time the seat was on the ballot. Donald Trump won it by more than 7 points in 2024.

“I am thrilled to congratulate Senator-Elect Brian Nathan on this shocking victory,” said FDP Chair Nikki Fried. “Brian is the kind of person we need in the legislature. His history of service as a Navy Veteran and union leader ensures that the needs of everyday people will be at the heart of every vote he takes in Tallahassee.”

Among those congratulating Nathan was Alexander Vindman, the top Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate later this year against GOP incumbent Ashley Moody.

“I am thrilled to congratulate my fellow veteran Brian Nathan on this win for the people of Florida,” Vindman said in a statement. “Floridians are using their voice to stand up for an end to the high costs, chaos, and corruption coming out of Washington. This win is just the beginning. I look forward to seeing all the good that Brian will do for his community and all Floridians in the legislature.”

Until the final precinct came in, it looked like the results would be so close that it would trigger an automatic machine recount. Florida law calls for machine recounts when the final results are within 0.5 percent.

In the Palm Beach County House District 87 race that includes Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, Democrat Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate with a public-health background, defeated Republican financial adviser Jon Maples, 51%-49%, in a district that Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024.

It’s a seat that was formerly held by Rep. Mike Caruso, one of Ron DeSantis’ closest allies in the House whom he elevated to the county clerk of the court position last summer. Caruso won the seat by 19 points in 2024.

“I’m thrilled to congratulate Representative-Elect Emily Gregory on this monumental victory,” said Fried. “A nearly 11 point swing to the left in this hard fought race shows the impact of Democrats’ long-term investment in Florida, and now the people of HD 87 will have a champion in Tallahassee.”

“In a district that includes Mar-a-Lago, this result is a direct rejection of the Florida GOP’s failed, out-of-touch agenda and proof that their politics of division are losing ground,” said Christina Diamond, CEO of Ruth’s List Florida, a group that works to elect pro-choice Democratic women. “Across Florida and the country, women are stepping up, building winning campaigns, and leading the way forward and this is just the beginning.”

Both those legislative seats have been empty since August.

The third race was in House District 51 in very red northern Polk County, a seat made vacant after Tomkow resigned early to run for the state Senate District 14 seat.

There was little drama there, as Republican Hilary Holley, executive director of an agriculture nonprofit organization, defeated Democrat Edwin Pérez by eight percentage points, 54%-46%. That district went for Donald Trump in 2024 by more than 13 percentage points.

–Mitch Perry, Florida Phoenix