I kept my son home from school today. It was the last day before spring break. All tests–that word so crowned with meanings these days–were over. What work he had left to turn in, he could do with his school-issued computer. An overreaction to the coronavirus? Probably. But if there is ever a time to overreact, it’s during a public health emergency when what we don’t know overwhelms what we do know, and when what we do know suggests that the best measures we can take to ward off infection and minimize burdens on clinics and hospitals are in our own power. Staying away from large gatherings that act like funnels and whisks of viral risk, as schools very much are, is one of those measures.
Flagler County so far appears to have no cases. That may be an illusion, part of that large bank of unknowns. But it’s also an opportunity for the county to serve as a circuit-breaker against the virus–if the county seizes the opportunity by being more aggressive than not with the measures we do know inhibit the spread of the disease, reduce demand on the health care infrastructure, and diminish risks to those more vulnerable to complications from infection: following through on the state’s ordered limit on visits to elderly care facilities, a moratorium on large gatherings, an extended spring break for schools (with online instruction), and drive-thru testing to both accelerate testing and limit exposure to health workers.
For those of us who have the luxury of working from anywhere, it’s all easy to say. “Many of our families would find it economically difficult to take time off from work to take care of their children, who would normally be in school for the greater part of the workday,” Superintendent Jim Tager wrote me this morning. “There are hundreds of our elementary-aged children taking part in our extended day program, which offers wrap-around services before and after the school day. Finally, more than 60 percent of our students are part of the free and reduced meal program. We know for them, they rely on our schools to provide them with a nutritious meal for breakfast and lunch.”
But it doesn’t have to be an either-or sort of thing: the district would still function, and would even play a key salutary role as it does in hurricane emergencies with its shelters or through summer with its camps. It could still provide meals to the neediest. It could modify extended day programs. Gatherings would not be eliminated but substantially reduced and balanced with families’ economic and social needs where possible. But public health remains paramount.
The district is fortunate to be heading into a 10-day break. It should use the break to put in place every mechanism for an extended, alternate operation, with remote instruction and modified support programs where possible, giving families time to plan. Palm Beach County is preparing to close specific schools should a student there test positive for coronavirus, rather than close all schools. But that seems to me like the NBA halting games involving only the Utah Jazz, two of whose members have tested positive. It’s not doing that of course, halting all games instead. A half-measured approach with school campuses would be unnecessarily risky and unfair to students, and invite endemic absenteeism anyway. We are in crisis. Maintaining the status quo until the last possible minute is not sound policy when the last minute appears to have passed several weeks ago.
Here’s some of what we do know. On Monday the CDC had documented 650 cases in 32 states and 26 deaths. There’d been 3,817 deaths worldwide. By today, Thursday, cases in the United States had doubled and spread to 40 states, deaths were up to 38, and deaths worldwide were approaching 5,000. We have 23 confirmed cases in Florida and three more under investigation. But we also know that testing is scant and testing labs even more so. A disturbing number in Florida is not the total number of cases but the number of pending test results: 147. That’s an awfully low number in a pandemic that according to our own top authority on infectious diseases, will only get worse, and that a former CDC director says could plausibly kill 1 million Americans.
As of Sunday, the United States was testing just five people per million residents, compared to 70 per million in Japan, 850 in Italy and 3,700 in South Korea. Put another way: South Korea is testing almost as many people in a single day (10,000) as the United States has in total so far (11,000). Our level of testing is dangerously at odds with the stated urgency, and still a reflection of a more reactive than preventive approach. So Flagler’s lack of numbers, like numbers across the country, are likely very deceptive.
And yes, the flu, the CDC reports, has caused between 34 and 49 million illnesses and anywhere between 20,000 and 52,000 deaths. Those numbers are still rising. But it makes no sense to use the flu’s numbers as a hedge against the gravity of coronavirus, a strain without cure or vaccine and whose toll may well exceed that of the flu before it’s done.
The reason we’re in this boat nationally is that we’ve done a poor job of preparing, with a president for two months ignorantly playing down the risks and inspiring his talk show shock troops to ridicule the pandemic as a hoax or another deep state scheme. It was good to see Trump finally take the pandemic seriously Wednesday evening, but his address was chaotic and bombastic rather than a sober reckoning with people’s most immediate concerns. Does it really make a difference if we have the best health care system in the world when it can’t even test its people for a virus? Eliminating coronavirus-related co-pays is helpful. So is signing an emergency spending bill that was really Congress’ doing. Beyond that he has no plan and still seems to have no idea. “This is not a financial crisis,” he said as markets have lost a fifth of their value in 20 days. The statement recalls the time when John McCain declared the economy sound as it was crashing in late 2008. The world always looked to the United States in time of global crises. Not this time. Nor can states look to Washington.
States, Florida included, were slow to enact testing protocols, are still slow to make testing readily and freely accessible, and leave the testing decision to gatekeepers, not to patients. That’s not reassuring. When Tom Hanks and his wife came down with symptoms in Australia, they got tested immediately and easily as any Australian could, but Americans can’t. Florida has a large population of elderly, uninsured and underemployed people, all risk groups. But the state Department of Health still refuses to more clearly identify where affected patients are located beyond a county designation, which is close to meaningless.
A News-Journal editorial this week notes the inexcusable dearth of information about the two Volusia County cases there. Common-sense sanitation measures are fine, “But as this virus spreads,” the editorial states, “more counties — Flagler, St. Johns, Putnam, Brevard — can expect to get the same news Volusia County residents received this week. And as they do, they’ll discover how frustrating it can be to have scraps of information just big enough to spread fear — but nowhere near substantial enough to provide comfort.”
Flagler County’s health department director and the county emergency management chief–Bob Snyder and Jonathan Lord–have been models of transparency and candor. But as with his Volusia colleague, Snyder could be hamstrung, against his better public judgment, by the state Department of Health’s censors.
That damages public confidence and hurts local efforts to make up the time and opportunities lost to national inaction earlier in the year. It also risks making such decisions as postponing events and closing schools more timid at the very time when the crisis calls for erring on the side of boldness. What may look like an overreaction today is the most effective form of prevention, and should not be given the chance to look like playing catch-up weeks from now.
Of course it’s disruptive. It may even be ridiculed. Small price to pay when the alternative might be unnecessary grief and unmanageable caseloads–the price certain regions are paying now. Flagler should seize the fortunate opportunity, not squander it with the wrong sort of caution. It is no time to wait and see.
Pierre Tristam is FlaglerLive’s editor. Reach him by email here. A version of this piece will aired on WNZF.
Reader Interactions
Comments
Leave a Reply
This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.
Tom says
I agree they should take advantage of the school break and close for a few extra days or another week. I realize this
would be a hardship for some families but its just a matter of time before someone tests positive in school or comes
down with the virus. I would rather keep my kids home for a few extra days then go thru the sickness or quarantine
process. An extra week off could very well avoid a lot of problems. Take an extra few days off and take it from there.
Percy's mother says
Pierre,
1. Keeping your son home from school today was not an overreaction. As a healthcare provider, and were I in charge of the Flagler County Health Department, I would have given more public direction about prevention, including having the schools close a week early for spring break in an effort to stave off potential infection. So what’s the worst that could happen by closing schools a week early for spring break? Some makeup school time at the end of the school year, a low price to pay for ensuring the safety of school aged children and their respective families. I’ve been shocked that the Flagler County School Board has remained silent on this very dangerous issue. Ditto for the Flagler County Health Department remaining largely silent on this issue. But the school board remaining silent is, and has been, inexcusable. Again, unqualified people elected to supposedly responsible positions who know nothing really about very important things.
2. Apparently there was a new case of COVID-19 in Volusia County on Wednesday evening . . . a biker from New York having tested positive. (That was the last I read early this morning, perhaps this is not the case). Actually, Bike Week should have been cancelled. But the almighty dollar won out over and above public health. So how many bikers and/or non-bikers has the biker guy from NY infected? When it’s all over, all these bikers will be going back to their respective home locations perhaps bringing the infection with them. Perfect storm.
3. I’m surprised more parents didn’t err on the side of safety (as did you). Bravo for trusting your gut.
JimB says
This would have an affect much wider than schools. Parents would have to take a leave to take care of the kids at home. Many people where I work take time off or work out care during school vacation periods. This would have such a ripple affect on everything.
So the kids stay home. Can’t keep them locked in the house away from everything. They will go out and play with other kids (the ones they go to school with). Parent(s) will go to work, the store, etc. so the parents are vulnerable and possibly bring it home with them.
Bad idea.
FlaglerLive says
Regarding the Volusia case involving the biker, Susan Cerbone, the PR person for Daytona Beach government, sent out this email to local media around noon today: “It’s been widely reported that a 63-year-old New Yorker has tested positive for COVID-19 while visiting Bike Week. We have received confirmation from the Florida Department of Health in Volusia County that this individual never arrived in Daytona Beach (or Volusia County) and never participated in any Bike Week activities in our community.” On the other hand, the 63-year-old man is in isolation at Flagler Hospital in St. Johns County, according to the Florida Department of Health.
Trisha says
Your logic makes zero sense.
Keep the kids home, if they play with a few kids from the hood thats fine , the whole point is to stay away from very large groups , in turn lessening the chance of getting ill.
Seems to me that the small inconvienience isnt worth large help it could be to our community.
Tmegee says
I was just going to say the same thing. I was in Walmart last night and it was busy. People touching everything everywhere…. workers handling your merchandise. What about the Florida tourist industry?? You think we won’t be flooded for spring break?? How would it even be possible to ‘cancel’ that because it isn’t even an event. Orlando is still a hot spot for international visitors. Unless we shut EVERYTHING down and EVERYONE isolates what’s the point??
Tmegee says
Trisha- it makes perfect sense. Going to Walmart has as much exposure as ‘a large gathering’. St. Augustine has a case now and I’ve been to my Dr. there 3x this month sitting in a room full of sick people- how many could already have it?? 80% of the cases are mild- you think those people are being tested?? The numbers are skewed due to lack of testing. There is no way to get an accurate percentage unless the general population is tested- not just the seriously ill.
Mary Fusco says
Well, if parents are keeping their kids home and quarantining them that is one thing. If kids are home and out and about, what is the purpose? Sadly, most parents are not at home and are talking out both sides of their mouth.
Ld says
If universities mandated to go online schools need to also. Drive through meal pickups at school could be arranged for those who need it. Some students may actually learn more with parental oversight.
JF says
If Flagler County Schools were to close a week early what would it hurt? Jesus lord god help you Flagler is we lose one of our children! I personally will be the first to sue the hell out of you and I hope you copy and post this. Just wait it’s going to happen, and you know it. Yet you are putting our children in harms way. All I can say if if 1 child is seriously injured or worse. I promise you that I will help raise so much money to vote y’all out and don’t forget about the lawsuit. I
Also promise if anything happens to our children all proceeds will go to the family’s and not your greedy arse people.
Kellz says
Uh yea walmart has hundreds if not thousands of people per day so i would not suggest going there.
Trisha was refering to what JimB said about it being pointless to keep kids home because they might go outside and play with friends which is way less harmful than school or walmart.
Karen s. says
If the hotels close there would be nowhere for people to stay, and everything will be shutting down soon and everyone should be staying home. There will be extensions for mortgages so people can go without work or work from home.
You should have already been isolating yourself and family and have stocked up on food and supplies like they have been suggesting for a month now.
JimB says
How do you know where these kids (hood as you call it which tells me a lot about you), or their families, or anyone else they may have come in contact with, have been.
Lets start with making sure our older population, like nursing homes, assisted living facilities, neighbors, etc, who would be affected the worse, have a plan in place and that they are looked out for. Then we work down the ladder. Lets help each other out. Just closing the schools isn’t the way to start.
Gus says
Since schools are not closed for the yearly Flu virus, why should the schools be closed for COVID19?
An average of 33,000 Americans die every year due to the Flu virus, and so far the death rate of the COVID19 has NOT proven to be nearly as high as the Flu virus, which has a new strain about every year.
M.D. says
Extend Spring Break? That is absolutely ridiculous! There are NOT significant numbers of Floridians, especially in our conty, who have contracted this virus. The county does have a responsibility to be REASONABLY proactive. They also have the ability to monitor the situation and take action at a predetermined point (a verified infectious persons count-threshold in Flager Cnty). Closing schools for a premature and UNREASONABLE PANIC is wrong! Single parents and families with limited means are not amenable to the idea of additional childcare expenses just because the editor of “Flagler Live” has published ‘Panic PROPAGANDA’!!
Bill says
Keep them home a day, a few days, a week two weeks the rest of the school year why not?? Am I missing something here?? How many KIDS have died from this??? As far as we know its ZERO. How about those who are at risk the elderly and those who already have compromised health we look at keeping their risk to a minimum. The fear/panic seems to be WAY more harmfull to us all then the virus.
Trisha says
“Hood” is short for neighborhood and if you arent a capable responsible parent that cant keep their own children in the house then thats on you but its better than sending them off to school which will spread the virus to our elderly much faster. smh
Well says
Considering children are not affected by this the same as older people all this would do is strain an already strained economy by making parents make choices—go to work or stay home with my kid. They need to protect the elderly and the frail. Kids, if anything, are silent spreaders and in order for this to work, total isolation is necessary and a majority of Americans will not follow it. Case in point a man in Missouri with an infected child told he needed to quarantine for 14 days felt the need to go to a father daughter dance with his non-infected child. People don’t listen. Keeping schools closed for an extra week does nothing. This will not go away in a week or even a month because the proper isolation methods are not being imposed and they won’t be. With the latest reports on how long this survives in the air (up to 3 hours), on objects (from 45 min to a few days depending on material) and how long people can be infectious (up to 37 days), it’s already everywhere. The time for containment is long gone and has been since this emerged in December.
De says
As mothers, dads, grandparents, we need to use our own common sense and instincts. We are ultimately responsible for our loved ones. Close school and prevent as much spread of this virus as possible. Better to be safe than sorry.
De says
How many people did he infect getting here, going around here and then getting into isolation. These will be the next numbers we see popping up.
Its never just ONE.
Sherry says
Please “think” past the “political alternate reality” talking points on FOX.
Please, turn on PBS, BBC, CNN . . . any place with FACTUAL information and suggestions from the MEDICAL EXPERTS who are explaining over and over again:
1. The Coronavirus is “very highly contiguous” and likely to be about TEN TIMES more fatal than the flu.
2. It will NOT magically go away on April 1st
3. There will NOT be a vaccine for 12-18 months
4. It is highly probable that children carry the virus and can infect adults and the elderly
5. There are NOT enough testing materials YET, and the federal government does not even know how many tests have been completed.
6. There is great concern over whether there is enough medial equipment and hospital isolation facilities
7. This situation is NOT a Hoax, or Media Hype, or Plot by the Democrats. This is NOT a Drill!
While there is never a good time to act out of panic, this is a time to search out the FACTS and act with prudence:
As suggested by the MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS:
1. AVOID close contact with others, no shaking hands, hugging, etc.
2. AVOID crowds and gatherings/meetings
3. Wash you hands often and thoroughly with soap for 20+ seconds, and keep your hands away from your face
4. AVOID traveling, especially in confined spaces that require close proximity to others (ex. airplanes and cruises)
5. Keep your resistance up by eating healthy and exercising
6. Postpone all non-essential medical treatment
7. No personal visits to nursing homes. . . and on. . . and on
Personal additional suggestions include:
1. Wearing gloves when grocery shopping . . . people touch much more than shopping cart handles
2. Contact your elder loved ones and make sure they understand how to protect themselves
This could be an opportunity where we could join together as a community and lend a helping heart, mind and soul. The question is, will we? Let’s try to add to this list of logical ideas and suggestions.
Stay Safe and Well!
Thinkahead says
If the kids get sick, or they bring the virus home and parents get sick, theyll be out of work anyway. So why not help a world panademic and your own family and take precautions saving More and more people from getting sick.
snapperhead says
@Gus…Do some research. It’s proven that a much higher % of people die from Coronavirus than the influenza. The World Health Organization death rate is 3.4% per 100 infected. Influenza is .1% death rate. If math is not your forte that 34 times more deadly.
Md2020 says
The kids get sick, then the parents get sick, then the relatives, friends, and anyone near them get sick, for grandma and grandpa its deadly….
keep the kids home a while and break the chain that causes pandemics,…..do your part. If school doesnt close, keep them home yourself..they can keep up with their school work online. Or a little longer school year. This is not a normal flu, we do not have pandemics every year….. everyone is responsible for how bad this gets. Theres so many dead in italy, they cant even get them removed for days……let alone save them in a hospital.
Apparently, reading a lot of these comments, some people just arent paying attention…Or else theyd be taking this seriously at this point.
Traveler says
Hey gus…how about a trip to Italy to answer your questions.
Tom says
How can anything be verified? Theyre not even testing! Theres no tests, how about that as unreasonable. No one knows how many cases there are….theres no tests!
This is not panic….its intelligent caring responsible prevention….
Go to Italy….see what a pandemic means…….it can get that bad….or not.
Single parents with limited means and low income families cant afford to get sick and miss work either.
Gwendolyn Hull says
I think it’s a good idea to keep our kid’s home but the only problem is the keeping the kid’s inside you can’t keep a kid locked up all day they need to be outside my daughter want to go to the beach and I really can’t stop her she is 18 but still in school and lives with us so yes it’s a good idea but how are going to deal with the kids
Me says
Disney world closes Sunday. That should tell people something. They never close.
People have to take off work if the kids or they get sick anyway, so keep the family self quarantined for a week or so and enjoy it not sick…….
Its what will stop the spread.
Tom says
You are 100% right, you said it all Sherry…….some will listen, some wont….thus a pandemic now.
Prince Moonraker says
“On Monday the CDC had documented 650 cases in 32 states and 26 deaths. There’d been 3,817 deaths worldwide. By today, Thursday, cases in the United States had doubled and spread to 40 states, deaths were up to 38, and deaths worldwide were approaching 5,000. We have 23 confirmed cases in Florida and three more under investigation.”
…and yet as I write this, noisy Embry Riddle planes from Daytona are STILL in the air flying over my house in the Palm Coast F section.
Steadfastandloyal says
don’t know if you can remember as far back as 2009-2010. That winter we had something called the “swine-flu” or H1N1 virus. It caused 12,469 deaths and infected 61 million people here in the United States alone! It made the news. Some people were concerned. Health warnings were issued, but very few people panicked. So what’s different? Is it social media? Mainstream media desperate for a President to fail at all costs? Just doesn’t add up- worst epidemic now is panic and hysteria.
Gary R says
Coronavirus school closings: Ohio, Maryland, Michigan become first states to shut all K-12 schools
anon. says
02% death rate for H1N1 in US, 3.2% so far in US for Corona. If 57 million were infected then there would be 1.8 million deaths, if my math is right.
anon. says
This is based on the 57million cases of swine flu in 2009.
C’mon man says
Just send every old retired person from up north back where they came from and they can take this disease with them. Or better yet, send them all to a remote island where they can cough and fight over toilet paper. We can put it on pay per view. People will pay big bucks to watch that shit.
P.s I hope i started something and wait and laugh at your comments.
justbob says
Not enough information being reported and that’s not acceptable. Secrecy makes people nervous. Did he travel overseas and where and when? Was he ever in Volusia County? Why is he in St Johns County? How’s he doing?, etc. No one is asking for his name or any protected personal info.
Sherry says
Thanks so much, Tom!
To those who continue to mindlessly post FOX politicized “talking points” and “whataboutisms” . . . NO, NOT everything in this world is about “trump” and his supporters.
Can’t we just move beyond divisive, paranoid political perspectives and come together “calmly” as a community to do all we can to protect one another, as much as possible, from the tragic illness created by this very highly contagious virus? Certainly the government is completely unprepared and overwhelmed.
Now is the time for the collection and analysis of actual FACTS and data, so that we can personally make reasonable decisions about how to conduct our daily lives, while minimizing the risk of spreading this contagious infection. Each of us has a responsibility and opportunity to “act”, not only to protect ourselves and our families, but also for the “common good”of our community and beyond.
WE CAN DO THIS “TOGETHER”!
Please post your “productive” and “positive” ideas and suggestions here!
anon. says
12469/61000000×100= .o2% Death rate. Using the projected death rate of 3.4% that same 61,000,000 would have 2.1 million deaths. Do the math yourself. They are not declaring a national emergency for nothing.
Richard says
Great map with lots of interactive information
https://data.floridatoday.com/coronavirus/active/
EradicateCOVID-19 says
@Sherry – I am 100% with you on this one! And thank you for your productive and positive post in the midst of such uncertainty. Hopefully, some people will start taking a more proactive approach to this very serious problem we are all facing. All of us are at risk! And ALL LIVES MATTER!
hawkeye says
the thing that cracks me up the most about this is the way people are freaking out about toilet paper! I guess most people nowadays have never been camping or hunting, I have wiped my ass with leaves many times, if thats not for you ,use a washrag and rinse it out .People have become so soft they cant deal with any adversity at all and the worst part of the whole thing is people can avoid this virus by washing their hands every chance they get, not just for this virus,as a common practice.Even when I was shitting in the woods ,I always rinsed my hands off in a stream ,first chance I got. Keep purell or some other anti bacterial agent in your vehicles like we do and rinse your hands every time you come into contact with anything foreign ,shopping buggy , door handle ,etc. It isnt that hard to stay germ free.
snapperhead says
the death rate of those infected with swine flu was .02 percent…Coronavirus is around 3%…61 million infections would be about 2 million dead compared to 12,000.
Sherry says
@ Richard. . . thanks so much. . . great information. I sent the link to all our US friends. And, Erad. . . you are so right. . . ALL LIVES MATTER! Now this is a community coming together. . . virtually!
Another suggestion is to do your grocery shopping during less busy hours, and maybe even ask your elderly friends and neighbors if you can pick up a few things for them as well.
Please remember to make some extra calls to your loved ones, as many are feeling insecure right now. Let’s spread some love around!
Stay safe and healthy everyone! Keep those positive ideas and suggestions coming!
Gus says
Wrong. Do your own research. Maybe try college algebra.
An average of 33,000 Americans die every year from the Flu. Yet nothing is said about it , much less a “Pandemic”.
Gus says
Italy hardest hit with 1,800 cases and 6,500 worldwide as of 3/16/2020.
And an average of at least 33,000 Americans die EVERY year due to the Flu, but no “pandemic”.
Lets look at the FACTS.
Also, did you know that BiII Gates and UN held simulated C0R0NAVIRUS Pandemic Conference in October of 2019. Less than 3 months before “it happened”.
What do you think are the chances of that being a coincidence?
Gus says
There is only 6,500 cases worldwide today 3/16/2020.
Why haven’t we been concerned about the ANNUAL American death toll from the Flu of 33,000 folks.
Gus says
You are correct M.D.