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Trump Regains Lead in Florida as Clinton’s Numbers Crash Over Email Server Findings

| July 13, 2016

donald trump

Gaining. (Matt Johnson)

In a sharp reversal from three weeks ago, presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has regained the advantage over Hillary Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania and remains tied in Ohio in the latest Quinnipiac University swing-state poll.

Trump now has a 42-39 advantage in Florida–still barely within the 3.1 percent margin of error–after trailing Clinton 47-39 on June 21, reflecting the damage to Clinton’s campaign since the FBI declared her use of a private email server irresponsible and revealed that several statements she’d made about it were lies. His lead is larger when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein re included: it grows to 41-36, with 7 percent going to Johnson and 4 percent to Stein.

Trump now has a 40-34 percent advantage in Pennsylvania overall when the two minor party candidates are included (as they will be on the November ballot), and a 37-36 advantage in Ohio.

That’s despite voters finding Clinton significantly better prepared to be president than Trump. In that regard, Clinton has a 53-37 percent advantage in Florida, a 56-36 percent advantage in Pennsylvania, and a57-34 advantage in Ohio. Similarly strong margins favor Clinton’s intelligence over Trump’s. But a candidate’s intelligence has not necessarily played a deciding role in recent presidential elections.

As for who has the higher moral standards, Trump and Clinton run with evenly tepid reactions from voters, who find them both tied in the 42 percent range. In June, Clinton had a 47-36 percent advantage in that category.

“While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty,” Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said.

By wide margins, voters in each state agree with the statement, “The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change.” Voters also agree by wide margins that trade agreements with other countries have hurt them and their families’ financial situation.

The Trump advantage is significant as it precedes the Republican National Convention next week. Trump is obsessively and publicly focused on polls. He is certain to refer to the Quinnipiac polls as a sign that his chances to beat Clinton are not imaginary. Candidates typically benefit from modest bumps in their approval rating after conventions, suggesting that his advantage may yet widen–as it might after he announces his pick for vice president, expected this week.

Florida voters say 54-39 percent that Trump would be better creating jobs; 49-45 percent that he would do better on immigration and 57-35 percent that Trump would be more effective against ISIS.

There is also a clear racial and gender divide in the response to Trump in Florida. “In Florida, Donald Trump is getting only 21 percent of the non-white vote. Although he is winning among white voters, who are mainly Republican, victory in Florida will be a very difficult lift for him if he can’t do better among non-white voters,” Brown said.

The poll also found that “prejudice against minority groups is a big problem in the United States today.” In Florida and Pennsylvania, 74 percent of those surveyed agreed with that statement, and 72 percent agreed in Ohio. Respondents also agreed by equally large margins that “the news media is part of the Washington D.C. establishment, which is out of touch with the rest of country.”

The poll was conducted through landlines and cell phones, in live interviews, from June 30-July 11, surveying 1,015 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 955 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, and 982 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

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23 Responses for “Trump Regains Lead in Florida as Clinton’s Numbers Crash Over Email Server Findings”

  1. Sherry says:

    Maybe. . . but the latest Reuters poll has Clinton 13 points over Trump nationwide. . . UP over 3 points in the last week!

  2. Knightwatch says:

    Trump will not win.

  3. PCer says:

    He will still lose.

  4. DaveT says:

    Clinton and Trump the worst America has to offer.

  5. r&r says:

    Clinton belongs in prison along her husband. I think Trump CAN make America GREAT again. He’s got the balls that none of the other politicians have,

  6. A little Common Sense please says:

    I’m not doing back flips over Trump, but I will vote for him over Clinton.

  7. Sherry says:

    And TRUMP the racist, megalomaniac, narcissist, xenophobe who proudly hires immigrants over paying a living wage to Americans. . . this man who is being sued for allegedly raping a 13 year old. . . This is who you support for President??? Take a readbefore he completely covers this up:

    http://therealdeal.com/2016/06/20/jane-doe-files-civil-rape-complaint-against-donald-trump-in-ny-court/

  8. r&r says:

    Trump is head and shoulders over Clinton. Clinton is living a lie just like Obama when he ran. Clinton isn’t good enough to carry Trumps briefcase.

  9. Robjr says:

    Get real numbers from a statistician rather than pollsters. Go to 538 dot com. People should not be surprised that so many support Trump. They have the same or similar perspectives, biases and predispositions as he does. Trump is just out front and in your face with his. Most of these folks are still hiding in the closet.

  10. A.S.F. says:

    I wonder how the righteous would react if they knew that both Condelezza Rice and Colin Powell both used their private email servers to communicate while in office? I am sure that they would find some double standard to apply to the situation.

  11. Sherry says:

    Oh Yeah. . . and this regarding TRUMP’S LIES:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/24/opinion/mr-trumps-applause-lies.html?_r=0

    And this complete fraud that bilked thousands of people for millions of dollars via Trump University. . . read this closely: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/29/politics/trump-university-fraud-claims/index.html

    There are many, many other FACTUAL examples of his fraudulent business practices, including 4 bankruptcies . . . makes him completely unqualified for any political office!

  12. Anonymous says:

    It’s quite interesting reading these comments. “Trump is better!” “Clinton is better!” “There both terrible!” In reality, it’s God’s plan that determines who wins the presidency. Just remember that ladies and gentlemen, regardless of political affiliation.

  13. jasonb says:

    Can’t wait to see the crying Rush-publicans on here after Clinton wins.

  14. r&r says:

    Clinton lied to congress as did Martha Stewart guess who went to prison?

  15. Donald Trump's Tiny Fingers says:

    It’s a quinnipiac poll people, there’s nothing to see here.

  16. Anonymous says:

    Trump is the only hope we have. He has to better than what we have and what we had. We know if Hillary is elected it is going to be more of the same old. The Clinton’s disgraced the White-house before and we can’t chance anymore of their shenanigans, schemes and lies.

  17. Veteran says:

    So Trump allegedly raped a 13 year old? Reported by therealdeal.com. I believe that and everything I see on Facebook!

  18. August Maxwell says:

    I SO adore my App, that changes Rumps name to- Some Rich Asshole – every time his names in print, have had around 6 months when I saw this coming. I think I’ll keep it.

  19. Geezer says:

    Donald Trump just killed his chances of winning by selecting Mike Pence as his running mate.
    WTF was he thinking? Mr. Pence is coming after your Social Security. The crooked old fart wants to privatize it. Pence has an anti-senior voting record. That’s deadly if you consider the power that old-timers wield at the polls. Maybe Orange Pompadour purposely torpedoed his presidential bid?

    If Pillory selects Elizabeth Warren, she’ll win by a large margin. Funny thing if Warren accepts, being anti big-bank, unlike Pillory who’s in bed with the banks….

    Today, Trump just went down the proverbial crapper. Swish…
    Will Elizabeth Warren sell her soul to the devil? We’ll see…

    But Mike Pence? Talk about UNLIKABLE! Sh**, he’d make a better companion for Pillory.
    Two lemon-sucking, prune-faced, embittered phonies….

  20. Anonymous says:

    Geezer—-Trump will be fine because Rick Scott won’t be his running mate. Regardless who he selects they aren’t going to see eye to eye on everything anyway, and it is going to be Trump who will be in charge. We would be a lot better off today if Obama were silent and the VP was calling the shots. You have to be foolish to think Hillary is for the Seniors….she is only for the elite and is there to carry out an agenda…..agenda 21.

  21. A little Common Sense please says:

    I’m not voting for any candidate who is for Agenda 21, or the banking elite who control the money supply and own the banks in the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve banks are privately owned and have never been audited and are at the root of most of Americas financial problems. The family behind this banking scheme in control of our money supply have stated, “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes it’s laws” — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild.

  22. Notbuyingit says:

    Hey Sherry….. you do realize that in this country we are INNOCENT till PROVEN guilty? You are going to judge Trump based on a suit filed 20 YEARS after the supposed event? You do realize that this alleged “rape” smells of $$$$ ? I cannot believe that people are so willing to buy into every stupid thing the media posts. The entire INTERNET is full of “news” sites that are nothing more than a cyber ENQUIRER after ratings. I am going to BET right now this is all a hoax, being filed to put a bad name to Trump. Now, if he gets tried and found guilty, THAT I would want to know about. Being accused is not enough. Anyone can make an accusation, and MANY times people have made accusations to make money. We live in a sick world, and Trump is the LEAST of our problems.

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