It was not supposed to have been a competitive race. Not in a congressional district the GOP’s Mike Waltz won by 33 points and Donald Trump won by nearly the same margin just five months ago.
But that was five months ago, just before Trump tapped Waltz for his national security adviser.
Democrat Josh Weil, the Orlando teacher, and the GOP’s Sen. Randy Fine of Melbourne, are running so close in the special election for Waltz’s 6th Congressional District seat–which includes all of Flagler County–that even if Weil doesn’t win Tuesday, the race is sending seismic waves through a magaland already jolted by honeymoon-crushing setbacks: the Signal scandal that nearly led to Waltz’s firing; an uptick in inflation; a backlash on tariffs’ effects on prices and elations with neighbors; fury welcoming Republican members of Congress back to their home districts; tumbling stocks and a presidential approval not far behind; a Democrat winning a special election in Pennsylvania last week for a state Senate seat Republicans held for decades, in a district Trump won by 15 points, and another Democrat flipping the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.
“We are outperforming,” Weil told volunteers at his Palm Coast office at City Marketplace early this afternoon. “We are showing up in numbers far beyond what people expected. Independents and NPAs, voters that don’t belong to either party, are showing up in numbers greater than expected. There’s only one group left. They can’t all make up a larger percentage. Percentages don’t work that way. Republicans are not coming out at the numbers they expected.”
Republicans know it.
President Trump, who endorsed Fine, expressed private and public worries about the race: he pulled the nomination of Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador to not risk another special election in a district she won by a narrower margin (24 points) that Waltz did his own.
“We have a candidate that I don’t think is winning. That’s an issue,” Steve Bannon, Trump’s former adviser, said of Fine on his podcast a week ago. Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won the district by 17 points in 2016, blames Fine for his under-performance, though he’s sending help.
The fundraising gap tells its own story. Weil had raised $9 million by mid-March to Fine’s less than $1 million, and had more than $1 million going into the final days of the campaign, to Fine’s less than $100,000, though Elon Musk was steering a few thousand dollars his way.
Fine, it appeared, had taken his win for granted in a race nationalized since its beginning, as the already-razor-thin GOP majority of four seats in the House of Representatives could be in jeopardy. Two seats are vacant and are in heavily Democratic districts. Republicans on Tuesday cannot afford to lose what they’d considered safe seats if Trump’s agenda is to make it through Congress.
“We’re doing great, we’re at R plus nine, and Republicans are going to vote tomorrow,” Fine, his usual in-your-face bluster rather blanched, told ABC News today under a maga hat. “Support for President Trump is not waning in this district. We just need those who support him to get out and vote tomorrow, and if we do, we’re going to have a big win.” (He also claimed, against evidence, that tariffs would not raise costs for consumers.)
Democrats have unquestionably outperformed Republicans in Flagler County, with 34 percent of registered Democrats turning out by the end of early voting, or voting by mail, to just 23 percent of registered Republicans. That was nowhere near the case during the general election last November, though a surge of Republican voters is expected on Election day and disillusion has been local Democrats’ day-after hangover election after election.
On Tuesday, Weil was speaking as the front-runner. “We have an incredible lead right now,” he said. “You have not had a representative in the US Congress during two months of some of the most tumultuous and impactful times–issues, edicts coming out of our federal government. Social Security has been put under threat. The Veterans Administration has faced severe cuts that impacting our veterans in this community, immediately, right? We’re seeing threats to Medicaid, to Medicare, to our public schools, to all of our federal offices, all of our federal agencies, services that we rely on.”
Weil played on the Fine compulsion to refer to Trump at every turn, as if he were Trump’s representative rather than a representative for constituents: “You all deserve a representative who is here for you, to represent you in Congress, not party leadership, not some president’s platform, not something else, but to represent the people of this district,” Weil said. And you all responded, and I’m incredibly grateful.”
Agnes Lightfoot, president of Democratic Women’s Club of Flagler County, was among those listening to Weil. “I just feel this one, and I can see the numbers are there,” she said. “And I’ve been out there beating the pavement.”
Two special elections for Congress culminate Tuesday in Florida, the other featuring Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, a Republican, and Democrat Gay Valimont, in the First Congressional District previously held by Matt Gaetz, whom Trump tapped as his attorney general before Gaetz’s unsavory past undid his nomination. The Patronis-Valimont race is not as competitive as Weil-Fine, though Patronis, too, was sounding alarms this week, according to Florida Politics.
Weil had no illusions even in front of his volunteers. He spoke of the 12 hours of polling left, and of the possible “surge” ahead as he asked his volunteers to continue to seek out “every last Democratic voter we can find” to get them to the polls–a ground game that was once a Democratic strength, but not in recent elections. “We are going to have our own surge tomorrow. We are going to hold this lead,” he said.
Janet Sullivan, who heads the local Democratic Party, summed up the Republican panic this way: “I don’t know if there’s a surge in [Weil’s] favor or if there is a decrease in Trump’s favor,” Sullivan said. “Democrats are good voters and we are voting. But Republicans are good voters, and they are not voting.”
Robjr says
Let us see if the sheeple will continue to vote against their own best interests.
Fernando Melendez says
I don’t think he’ll even come close to winning. Don’t forget what party rules in Florida. I won’t be voting for him Fine all the way.
Steve says
Hope springs eternal. We need balance. The middle of the road is where the work gets done. A swing back by the Political pendulum is in order. Your Votes matter. It’s People not Party.
Good luck
The dude says
Don’t worry MAGA morons… your fat man will win tomorrow. And absolutely nothing will change for the better in Flagler County or Floriduh for it.
The good news is, because you MAGA morons will vote like you always do, things will continue on around here like they always do, and you’ll have plenty to bitch and complain about. That should make you happy, if MAGAs can actually be “happy” that is…
Atwp says
We will see what happens. We Dems must vote to win elections.Hope the Dems pull an upset tomorrow. When the Dems campaign, they should tie Trump to the bad economy, and Musk to job losses. A message for winning elections.
NJ says
The Major problem for the Republican Party is that Waltz was a ” Ghost Congressman”(NEVER having any Town Hall Meetings) while always on Fox News as the “War Hero”! In every District in America, We the People want our congressman to be in our district Listening (aka Town Hall Meetings) to the NEEDS of the people he represents! VOTE for the person you want to represent We the People!
Jesse says
I’d choose Weil for the seat over Fine any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
John Bertolacci says
Remember, not all republicans are voting for Fine. The only way to save this country from this madness , is to vote for the other party.
Dave says
And the Liberals from blue states move to Florida to vote the same way they do in their blue states.
Don’t New York our Florida
Mark Webb says
Fernando, he has already won!
He doesn’t need to win this election to show the country that MAGA is done everywhere.
Just look at the actions taken by your party in the last 2 weeks.
Good luck running in 2026.
David Meeks says
You all bad mouthing hating people are welcome to leave the US. I mean REALLY? fat man, morons, vandalizing, calling trump supporters terrorists, Doesn’t sound you like the US.
And there are more reps than dems in the district. The only reason Fine didn’t win the 1st time was because the margin was fine (ha ha) & triggered a automatic run off.
Katy says
Democrats will never win unless they cheat like crazy again. They are completely against all Americans and their values. What crazy liberal democrat judge would over rule laws
to let 250 gang members come to the country illegal and operate drugs and gangs tells the whole story who the dems are!
PaulT says
I don’t understand the mentality of Republicans who will vote against their own best interests.
Randy Fine was a wrecking ball in the Florida House and Senate and he’s admitted that he has no interest in his constituents opinions or their problems.
Isn’t it time to elect someone who actually represents us?
Tony Lorenzo says
A Republic if you can keep it.
No one likes to be told they made a mistake or are wrong, they have to reach that conclusion on their own. It’s going to take a little more time to feel the full effect of voting for Mr Trumps presidency. Memorial Day end of next month will lay completely bare some unfortunate lies.
– [ ] I will end Inflation immediately after I become president.
– [ ] I will end war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
– [ ] There will be accountability in my administration.
These are just three untruths of the multiple he tells regularly.
Retired LT General Dan “Razen: Caine , his nominee for Joint Chiefs Chair just testified UNDER OATH that he never said to Mr Trump “ I would kill for you sir “ before slapping a MAGA cap on his head .
“For 34 years, I’ve upheld my oath of office and my commitment to my commission,” Caine told Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), during his Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing. “And I have never worn any political merchandise.
Buy anything, look at the homes for sale. It will get worst. Three years from now it will still be ” Bidens fault”
Tony Lorenzo says
Fernando Melendez, “what party rules in Florida”? darn that sounds like Fidel, or Hugo Chavez or now Maduro . Just because theres an R next to this Gambling Executive’s name doesnt make him someone that will represent our best interests , not some billionaires. Fine constantly mentions Trump over and over, what about us ? Do we want to send another lackey to Congress ? Having watched Latin America for a while , all these populist clowns do is rob and promote their interests.
Punch a nazi says
Haha gonna take a lot to remove billionaire Nazis from power. They already trying to break the constitution to run a third time cause soon as they loose power they will go to prison for their domestic terrorism and breaking countless number of laws. Hopefully off to El Salvador with no trial cause annd a shaved head and they deserve so much worse.
Pig Farmer says
Not all Republicans voted for Fine. I’ve been a Republican for decades, but I AM NOT a MAGA. I blame the MAGA crowd for forcing me to vote Democrat since Trump jumped into politics!
Tony Lorenzo says
No one likes to be told they made a mistake or are wrong, they have to reach that conclusion on their own. It’s going to take a little more time to feel the full effect of voting for Mr Trumps presidency. Memorial Day end of next month will lay bare some unfortunate lies.
– [ ] I will end Inflation immediately after I become president.
– [ ] I will end war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
– [ ] There will be accountability in my administration.
These are just three untruths of the multiple he tells regularly.
Retired LT General Dan “Razen: Caine , his nominee for Joint Chiefs Chair just testified UNDER OATH that he never said to Mr Trump “ I would kill for you sir “ before slapping a MAGA cap on his head .
“For 34 years, I’ve upheld my oath of office and my commitment to my commission,” Caine told Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), during his Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing. “And I have never worn any political merchandise.
Buy anything, look at the homes for sale. It will get worst.
Can't vote today says
HOPEFULLY ALL WILL BE FINE !!
I went to vote today only to find out my polling place has been moved to an excess of 30 mile round trip away.
One way to stop the voters from showing up in numbers.
4 of us in the car will now not be able to vote today
Dianne says
The big problem is that all the Democrats and liberals think that President Trump can fix everything in a matter of months..when it took four years for the Democratic party to ruin our country…if you think you can do better than use your energy to do so…Democrats always have something negative to say…and love to give away money…your money…
BillC says
Last call Democrats. It’s an uphill battle because registered Repubs outnumber Dems in Flagler. Every vote counts! No excuses, get out there and VOTE for Weil! Polls close at 7pm.
Ray says
NJ says…. Good luck with that mind frame. I will never happen; Politicians do not care what you think! They do it for personal gain and nothing else. Like Corporations Executive Officers.
It’s all GREED Period.
J. Keith says
While I wish everyone always voted in every election, the fact is that the majority of votes are cast by the older voter. Seeing how Trump 2.0 has started off, I’m guessing many issues important to those older voters have taken a hit. Nothing has gotten any cheaper as was promised, and, in fact, we know things are going to be costing more — much more on big items like appliances, automobiles, computers, cell phones. Looking forward to the polls closing this evening! Let’s hope for early results, too!
Tamzin says
I am a life long Republican voter since the 1980’s but can not and will not support any candidate that is tied to Trump. I still have Republican values that support “fiscal responsibility” and am trying to research more and doing a deeper dive into all the bs rhetoric. It’s just so played. I still don’t understand what’s wrong about being woke??? Isn’t that a good thing? When did being aware of stupid practices and ideology become a bad thing? When did the divide happen that separated ideas into strictly being one party or another? When did “unwoke” Republicans think it was ok to slide into the acceptance of continuing to be unevolved? Shaking my head on that one.
Jake from state farm says
I find it interesting how all the “love and peace” rhetoric from the far left is flooding these comments. It’s almost like a contradiction in itself. Honestly, it’s going to be a long and tough four years for all of you if this is the mindset you’re holding onto. Time to prepare for reality, folks.
DAVID VONE says
Democrats – the party of un vetted open border murdering illegals, gang members, child rapists, drug dealers and human traffickers. The party of supporting wasteful spending, fraud and giving illegals the right to vote – democrats are the hate America party that only wants power and is willing to kill its constituents to get it. The party of race politics, menu women’s sports, reparations and weakness.
You lose again!
The Geode says
THAT, aged well…