Many conventional assumptions about Donald’s Trump chance to win the Republican nomination were proven wrong when the New York real estate mogul and reality show star assured himself the nomination with his primary win in Indiana last week. By day’s end he will edge closer to the 1,237 total delegates he needs when primary voting ends in West Virginia and Nebraska.
Conventional assumptions may now have to re-calibrate as the first major swing-state poll since Trump became the GOP’s presumptive nominee shows Trump and Hillary Clinton running even in Florida and Pennsylvania, and Trump ahead in Ohio. (Trump has 1,068 delegates and no GOP opposition left.)
Released this morning, the Quinnipiac University poll, among the more accurate polling organizations, finds Clinton barely ahead, 43-42 in Florida and Pennsylvania, and Trump somewhat ahead in Ohio, 43-39. The Florida and Pennsylvania results are within the 3 percent margin of error. They’re just beyond it in the Ohio poll. All three polls were conducted with more than 1,000 voters, and are the first major sampling of voter preferences since Trump’s opponents dropped out.
“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, referring to John McCain and Mitt Romney. That suggests Trump is pulling in blue-collar votes that McCain and Romney did not. “And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.” (McCain and Romney ended up losing Ohio and Florida.)
But there are caveats: while the Republican contest is over, with Trump the decided winner, the Democratic contest is not. Bernie Sanders has almost no chance of reversing Clinton’s momentum and winning the Democratic nomination. But as far as primary voters are concerned, Sanders is still very much in the race, he is still winning some of the contests. He is expected to continue to pull votes as his strategy shifts from a contender for the nomination to a tactician for influence between now and November, and in a presumptive Clinton administration. So Democratic votes are not all spoken for, and Sanders’s continued presence in the primaries may be dampening support for Clinton.
Another caveat: the poll’s methodology shows that in net, unweighted number, Quinnipiac interviewed in Florida 371 Republicans to 306 Democrats, and 559 men to 492 women (all of which the weighted results are designed to account for), while the poll sampled registered, but not necessarily likely, voters.
Both Trump and Clinton are extremely polarizing, with gender, race and age big factors in voters’ preferences. And they’re not liked. In Florida, Clinton and Trump each get a negative 37-57 percent favorability rating.
But Clinton has a certain edge: “By wide margins, voters in all three states say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by smaller margins, voters in all three states say she has higher moral standards,” Brown said.
Ultimately, however, intelligence is not as much a factor, for voters, as other factors. “The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump,” Brown said. “In Pennsylvania, Clinton’s 19-point lead among women matches Trump’s 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men.”
“Trump would do a better job handling the economy, voters say. He also would do a better job handling terrorism, voters in Florida and Ohio say. Pennsylvania voters are divided.”
In Florida specifically, Independent voters, who tend to decide all statewide elections, are divided 39-39 percent. White voters go Republican 52-33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 63-20 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old back Clinton 49-27 percent, while voters over 65 years old back Trump 50-37 percent.
anonymous says
I’m voting Trump Only. And rick staly for Palm Coast for sheriff’s position.
The Geode says
A vote for Trump is a vote for chaos. I love chaos. GO TRUMP GO!
woody says
Hey Geode that’s CRAZY! I love it – count me in
PCer says
A vote for Trump is a vote for an Idiocracy. Go watch the movie – you can stream it for free.
Just me says
What a “choice” we have between two old white super rich NY progressives…. I guess ill vote for the one who bought off politicians NOT the one bought off.
r&r says
Clinton and her pervert husband both belong in prison.
Fredrick says
PCer……. It was done the last two Presidential elections so why not 3 in a row.
#anybody but Hillary.
Sherry says
Geez. . . Logically, polls at this point will naturally favor Trump since the Democratic primary is still active and the Sander’s supporters have not yet consolidated behind Secretary Clinton.
Hammock says
Democrats are finally waking up and can see Hillary is best fit for the big house not white house.
Sherry says
SO. . . rather than simply acting like a bunch of childish 10 year old’s with your hate filled, obsessive, offensive labeling and name calling. . . please, please cite some real proof that Secretary Clinton and President Bill Clinton have done anything for which they have been PROVEN criminally guilty. Come On Cowards. . . put up or get out from behind Rush’s skirts and shut up!
Let’s see the links to the “credible” proof of your ignorant contentions. Otherwise, those of us who welcome “civilized” discourse from intelligent sources will continue to shake our heads in disgust at your completely stupid remarks. Thanks so much!
just me says
Sherry says:
May 11, 2016 at 4:28 am
Geez. . . Logically, polls at this point will naturally favor Trump since the Democratic primary is still active and the Sander’s supporters have not yet consolidated behind Secretary Clinton.
WOW logically and demacrats in the same thought???
Sherry says
How very pitiful. . . just sitting here in gorgeous France. . . shaking my head!
Hammock says
@ Sherry Wow, I wrote I little sentence (Democrats are finally waking up and can see Hillary is best fit for the big house not white house.)
I am not a bunch of childish 10year old’s. It is just me. That 1 statement was not hate filled, obsessive, offensive labeling and name calling. And I don’t listen to Rush.
I never said PROVEN criminally guilty. Also I am not a coward (like you name called me). Here is just ONE of the Allegations that the FBI (That does not stand for Federal Bureau of Security reviews) because I don’t want to bring down the Flagler Live server. When you read the below and see if it applies like other loyal Democrats did, I CHALLENGE you to tell me what if the roles were reversed and these felony charges were leveled to Trump. I’ll wait. hehe
USCODE-2009-title18-partI-chap93-sec1924.
§1924. Unauthorized removal and retention of classified documents or material
(a) Whoever, being an officer, employee, contractor, or consultant of the United States, and, by virtue of his office, employment, position, or contract, becomes possessed of documents or materials containing classified information of the United States, knowingly removes such documents or materials without authority and with the intent to retain such documents or materials at an unauthorized location shall be fined under this title or imprisoned for not more than one year, or both.
YankeeExPat says
“Away, Away, Away down South in Dixie”
https://youtu.be/kjPmzw1SbBk
Sherry says
Gladly. . . although Secetary Clinton is being investigated for using a private server. . . just an many other government leaders have done. . ., Donald Trump has an active court battle for bilking thousands of dollars from Trump University students, settled the SoHo case to avoid criminal conviction, hired foreign workers illegally and mistreated them, has connections with the mob, cheating his creditors by using bankruptcy laws FOUR times. . . and on and on! Take the time to read and absorbs the FACTS of the long legacy of Trump’s despicable acts. . . then defend him as a good choice for our President:
http://time.com/4101290/what-the-legal-battle-over-trump-university-reveals-about-its-founder/
http://fortune.com/2016/03/08/trump-university-financial-elder-abuse-charges/
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/mar/02/ted-cruz/yes-donald-trump-has-been-linked-mob/
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/us/politics/donald-trump-soho-settlement.html
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/will-donald-trumps-ties-to-a-criminal-hurt-his-campaign/article/2569496
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/donald-trump-scandals/474726/
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/feb/25/marco-rubio/marco-rubio-says-donald-trump-had-pay-1-million-hi/
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431933/donald-trump-foreign-workers-american-workers-arent-good-enough
There are many more where these came from!
Dave says
I would vote for anyone that ran against Hillary Clinton , I just don’t trust her or like the Queen of Lairs.