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Trump Lead in Florida Vanishes, Overtaken by Clinton Surge as GOP Leader’s Campaign Falters

| June 21, 2016

donald trump poll trouble

In trouble. (Andrew Dallos)

Donald Trump’s brief but small lead in Florida has vanished, replaced by a big Hillary Clinton surge. The presumptive Democratic nominee now leads her Republican rival by a 47-39 percent advantage in Florida according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, erasing the one-point lead Trump commanded in early May, immediately after assuring himself of the nomination for president.


Trump in May had also led Clinton in Ohio by a small margin. That lead is gone, though to be replaced only by a dead heat: they’re both at 40 percent. In Pennsylvania, the third crucial swing state, Clinton is ahead by one point, statistically still a tie and a result similar to that of early May.

Several factors appear to have contributed to Trump’s fading: disarray within his campaign (he fired his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, on Monday; lack of money (he began June with $1.3 million, compared to $41 million for Clinton, and has not aired any campaign ads in swing states, compared to $26 million spent by Clinton in June on advertising); lack of organization (he has a staff of 70 for the entire nation, compared to 10 times that running Clinton’s organization); Bernie Sanders’s campaign is all but over, with his supporters beginning to migrate to Clinton.

Finally, Trump’s racism has not helped him. In Florida, 58 percent of respondents found Trump to have been racist when he said that an American-born judge overseeing a fraud case against Trump University should recuse himself because of his Mexican heritage. The response was similar in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The latest Quinnipiac poll also reflects a larger, darker national picture for Trump as Clinton has been commanding leads in national poll after poll, for an average lead of more than 5 percent according to the latest Real Clear Politics average. For all that, the Clinton campaign is not as much in control as may appear. Running even in two of the most important swing states after spending $26 million on advertising, to Trump’s zero spending, suggests that Trump is still benefiting from a base of support that is not eroding and that, absent his missteps or disorganization, could swing numbers back in his favor.

Sanders still runs much better than Clinton against Trump in Pennsylvania and Ohio, reflecting the deep dislike of Clinton among the electorate. But Clinton’s dislike still is not as bleak as the dislike for Trump. And Sanders’s numbers reflect those of a candidate who has not been under nearly as much scrutiny as Trump or Clinton. Still, the latest Quinnipiac numbers also reflect what strengths Clinton can rely on.

“The at-times bitter verbal battles between Trump and some Republicans leaders is showing in these numbers,” says Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. “In these three key states, Clinton is doing better, and in the case of Florida much better, among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans. Traditionally GOP presidential candidates score better on this party loyalty test.”

By wide margins, voters in each state say Clinton is better prepared than Trump to be president, is more intelligent than Trump and has higher moral standards. Voters are divided on whether Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Clinton and voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania find him more inspiring.

Here’s how Quinnipiac’s numbers sum up Florida:

Trump’s support among men in Florida drops from 49 – 36 percent May 10 to 45 – 41 percent today. Clinton’s lead among women grows from 48 – 35 percent in May to 52 – 34 percent today. Republicans back Trump 82 – 8 percent, while Clinton leads 93 – 2 among Democrats and 44 – 35 percent among independent voters. White voters back Trump 51 – 36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 72 – 15 percent.

Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 39 – 53 percent for her and 33 – 61 percent for him.

Comparing the candidates’ character traits, voters say:

60 – 31 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
47 – 36 percent that she has higher moral standards;
53 – 33 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
43 percent say Trump is more honest and trustworthy and 40 percent trust Clinton;
44 percent that Clinton is more inspiring, with 42 percent for Trump;
46 percent that Trump is a stronger leader, with 45 percent for Clinton.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Florida voters say 49 – 41 percent. Clinton would be better on immigration, voters say 50 – 43 percent. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 48 – 42 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 54 – 39 percent.

Florida voters say 48 – 40 percent they would rather invite Trump to their backyard barbecue, but say 49 – 40 percent they would rather turn to Clinton during a personal crisis.

“Of the three swing states, Florida has the largest number of electoral vote,” Brown said. “In fact, it has the most of any of the roughly dozen states around the country considered to be in play. It is Hillary Clinton’s best state and perhaps Donald Trump’s toughest lift. One reason might be Florida has a larger Hispanic population than the other two states, and Trump has clashed with Hispanic leaders over some of his remarks.”

The poll was conducted from June 9 to 19, with 975 Florida voters interviewed by land lnes and cell phones, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

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19 Responses for “Trump Lead in Florida Vanishes, Overtaken by Clinton Surge as GOP Leader’s Campaign Falters”

  1. Knightwatch says:

    There are still many rational people in Florida. And, thaknfully, they’re not just Democrats. There are no political boundaries when it comes to common sense. GO DEMLICANS!!

  2. Ben Hogarth says:

    Perhaps all the world needs is this reminder:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8HdOHrc3OQ

    Because I can’t think of a better speech, by a better statesman and artist than Charlie Chaplin.

    If you think Donald Trump is the answer to all of your problems – you have way more problems than even you can comprehend

  3. Donna Heiss says:

    So whats with all the Trump signs then? Haven’t seen 1 Clinton sign and I travel throughout Florida.

  4. Barry Hartmann says:

    It’s still early. ! Don’t count Mr. Trump out yet !🇺🇸🇺🇸

  5. r&r says:

    Trump has been the one and only choice since day one.

  6. DaveT says:

    The more he talks the more voters he loses. Amazing . Clinton must be the best of the worst.

  7. tulip says:

    I’m not a fan of either one, but when I think of those poor men in Benghazi who depended on Hillary in order to survive the attack and she let them down big time, I shudder.
    She criticizes Trump for his “university” but what about Laureat Acadamy that was involved with the Clinton Global and Clinton was paid 16 MILLION in four years time. What about that scam. What about the fact that Hillary won’t be endicted which she knew when Obama finally endorsed her.

    Hillary is a female white Obama. Just look at where we are now and think of another 4 years of this.

    Trump is very smart, but has gone off the deep end and is frightening at times. Such a shame cause I thought he would finally get rid of Isis.

    Whoever gets elected, won’t be a good choice and this country will go from bad to worse. If these two candidates are the best of the bunch, it’s very obvious something is very wrong somewhere. I’m skipping the presidential boxes on the ballot.

  8. Ws says:

    Hmm sounds like more nonsense from the media to fool people. Trump will win by a landslide and I can’t wait for him to tell Obama he’s fired!

  9. Geezer says:

    I could have envisaged McCain vs Biden in the coming election,
    (not that they’re the bee’s knees), but Orange Pompadour vs Pillory
    really sickens me. They should hand out barf bags at the polls.

    I don’t care if Kermit the Frog runs–I’ll vote Green Party.

    And Good God, I wonder who the running mates will be.
    I hope I’m sitting when the announcements are made.

  10. Al says:

    June 21, 2016 at 5:19 pm

    Hmm sounds like more nonsense from the media to fool people. Trump will win by a landslide and I can’t wait for him to tell Obama he’s fired!

    I can’t either….let’s get this garbage over with. I am done with the news media, lets vote soon Please! lol

  11. Knightwatch says:

    Trump is a juvenile race-baiting, gay-bashing misogynistic cretin. He has no morals, no values, no ethics and no clue what it takes to discharge the duties of the office of the presidency. He is, in short, a wholly unqualified canidate, a dangeroug demagogue and a truly dispicable human being. And yet, good christian republicaNRA’s are falling al over themselves to back him. So, I expect that makes his followers juvenile, race-baiting, gay-bashing misognystic cretins who now have a crude, vile voice speaking for them… speaking what they believe but were too cowardly to say so.

    Must be tough looking in the mirror in the morning.

  12. flager me says:

    Tulip- Thanks for summing it up-and telling the truth–Benghazi is Clintons downfall we hope— Palm Coast will go for Trump- they will not forget J, Christopher Stevens- I;d gladly trade” Trump’s supposedly racism for Hillary’s ineptitude

  13. Outsider says:

    It’s not the next four years that are at stake, but the next 40. The courts have slowly become the most powerful branch of the U.S. government, with the executive being second. Congress has become a distant third, primarily because Republicans are afraid to weild the power granted them in the constitution. Hillary will create a 6-3 Supreme Court that will throw the constitution out the window. One dissenting judge in Heller vs. D.C. said the second amendment is outdated and should be “ignored.” How long before the first, second, and all the others will be willfully ignored to create the leftist Utopia envisioned by Obama and his ilk? I can live with Trump for the next four years; I can’t live with Hillary for the next 40, nor, without newly found fiscal discipline, can the country. The numbers prove that.

  14. Sherry says:

    Is ANYONE paying attention out there? Trump has spent over 6 million of his campaign funds to benefit his own empire and even his son’s winery business. Will he end up making a “PROFIT” out of running for President? How in the world is this even legal? We desperately need campaign finance reform! Take a look: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/21/politics/donald-trump-business-spending-fec/index.html

  15. Donald Trump's Tiny Fingers says:

    Benghazi should be the entirety of congress’ downfall, since they’re the ones that decided to routinely cut funding to security for embassies. But by all means, don’t let the truth get in the way of whatever ridiculous manhunts you want to mount over people you have no personal connections to.

  16. real talk says:

    Obama wasn’t the president we deserved, hes the president we needed.

    Trump is the president we deserve and don’t need.

    Donald trumps father was, laughably, a tenement slumlord whos tenants relied on subsidized housing. So in all honesty, his empire was built off of making money off of providing shitty housing to poor people at the expense of all of us. The ultimate taxpayers theft. Not to mention that HE WASN’T A GOOD BUSINESS MAN. HE LARGELY HELD ONTO HIS FATHERS HOLDINGS. Since when is multiple bankruptcies fiscal responsibility? Trump supporters, and republicans, are always the most uninformed with the largest mouths. But us liberals will be laughing all the way to the poll both, and back, as we win another election.

  17. Sherry says:

    Right On DTTF! Why place the blame on Congress, where it really belongs . . . when a complete “witch hunt” satisfies the agenda of the twisted conservatives!

  18. just me says:

    I don’t think Trump is the answer to this Republics problems. BUT I sure as HELL know Clinton will make them much worse.

  19. Sherry says:

    Trump. . . a disgusting man who is accused of raping a 13 year old. . . this from the National Review and reported on many news outlets:

    “Jane Doe” files civil rape complaint against Trump in NY court
    Allegations similar to those filed — and dismissed — in California by the same plaintiff
    June 20, 2016 03:04PM
    By Will Parker, Kathryn Brenzel and Kyna Doles

    A new lawsuit filed in federal court accuses presidential hopeful Donald Trump of raping a 13-year-old girl at Jeffrey Epstein’s Upper East Side mansion more than 20 years ago.

    The woman, who alleges the rape occurred in 1994, filed a civil complaint in New York Federal Court on Monday against the presumptive Republican nominee and Epstein, a notorious ex-hedge funder previously convicted in a prostitution scandal involving minors. Trump allegedly attended at least four of Epstein’s parties at 9 East 71st Street, known as the Wexner Mansion. The plaintiff, like other girls at the house, was lured to the parties with a promise of a modeling career, the lawsuit claims.

    Testimony attached to the complaint alleges that a woman — identified only as Tiffany Doe — was hired by Epstein to recruit young girls for his parties. The woman allegedly met the plaintiff at Port Authority Bus Terminal and told her the parties would help connect her to the right people to launch her career.

    The lawsuit, which repeats some allegations made in a dismissed complaint filed in California in April, offers a graphic account of the young girl’s alleged encounters with Trump, the worst of which is described as a “savage sexual act.” The lawsuit claims that during this instance, Trump tied her to the bed and struck her face with his hand, saying he could do what he wanted, despite her pleas for him to stop.

    The complaint alleges that Epstein also raped her.
    Michael Cohen, special counsel to Trump, had not yet read the new allegations when reached by phone. An attorney for Epstein could not immediately be reached for comment. In response to a similar lawsuit filed back in April, Trump categorically denied the claims. That lawsuit was dismissed in May.

    It should be noted that anyone can file a civil complaint in federal court. The statute of limitations in New York for civil rape cases is five years, but Monday’s complaint argues that the time limit should be waived, noting that the plaintiff was too frightened to report the abuse because Trump had threatened that if she did “her family would be physically harmed if not killed.”

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