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Pounded By E-Mail Mire, Clinton’s Leads Falter Slightly as Jeb Bush Rises in Florida

| March 31, 2015

Clinton's numbers are a bit less august. (PBS NewsHour)

Clinton’s numbers are a bit less august. (PBS NewsHour)

For the first time since the poll has been conducted with Hillary Clinton’s name included, the former secretary of state is not ahead in Florida: Jeb Bush would beat Clinton, 45 to 42, in a head-to-head matchup, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, released this morning.

Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness also spell trouble for her: Just 41 percent of Florida voters consider her honest and trustworthy, compared to 54 percent for Bush. She does a bit better in Ohio, with 47 percent, but 49 percent of voters in Pennsylvania and 50 percent in Florida find her dishonest. Her favorability is also down.

But Clinton’s dipping numbers should be put in context: lack of trust has never been an issue for a Clinton candidate or president. With Bill Clinton, it was part of the package. And while her numbers are weakening, Clinton remains the strongest candidate when her numbers stack up against those of other contenders in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, three key swing states. Clinton would still easily beat Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee in all three states, and would easily beat Bush in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The surprise of the latest numbers, if anything, is that despite the difficulties Clinton ran into after disclosures that she deleted thousands of official emails and did not maintain a Department of State email address in her years as secretary of state, the matter has not resonated much with potential voters—at least not nearly as much as it has resonated in media, where the matter has been significantly amplified.

Lack of trust in a Clinton recalls echoes of Bill, though it never hurt him much.

The prospective Bush campaign may have more to be concerned about. Bush has not yet announced that he would run for president. But he’s done almost everything short of that to indicate that he will. Despite the attention, his numbers remain weak in Ohio, where Clinton would beat him, 47-38, and in Pennsylvania, 46-40. The poll pre-dates reports Monday and Tuesday that Marco Rubio, the Florida senator, will make an announcement on April 13 about his presidential ambitions. A Republican primary in Florida featuring Rubio and Bush (not to mention Huckabee, now a Florida resident) would be especially fractious and expensive for both candidates, possibly to Clinton’s benefit.
But the Rubio candidacy may prove to be as potent a wild card in the early primaries, and as surprising, as Barack Obama’s was in 2008. For now, Clinton would beat Rubio in Florida, 46-44, she would beat him in Ohio, 47-38, and would beat him in Pennsylvania, 46-42.

The numbers were also surprising regarding Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor who has strong ties to the evangelical vote—as Bush, a Catholic, does not—and is seen as a tougher conservative than Bush, largely because of his taming of union power in a traditionally union state. Yet Clinton would still beat him in all three states by a margin of from 5 to 11 percentage points.

On the plus side, Secretary Clinton is considered a strong leader – a key characteristic for voters when picking a president, more so than her leading, but lesser-known, potential GOP opponents,” Brown said. “But about half the voters in all three states question her honesty and trustworthiness. On the plus side, Secretary Clinton is considered a strong leader – a key characteristic for voters when picking a president, more so than her leading, but lesser-known, potential GOP opponents.”

Majorities in each state think Clinton still has questions to answer about her e-mails: just 33 percent say she’s provided satisfactory answers, with 56 percent saying questions remain. Voters are more evenly divided on the necessity of congressional hearings on the matter.

The gender gap remains wide as Clinton leads among women in every contest, by margins of 7 percentage points to 28 percentage points. Her margins among men range from a 3 percentage point lead to a 23-point deficit.

Brown points to another Clinton strength: “Secretary Clinton has virtually 100 percent name recognition in the Sunshine state, as 95 percent of Floridians have an opinion about her favorably or unfavorably. That means changing voters’ preferences will be difficult.”

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted March 17-28, interviewing by cell phones and landlines just over 1,000 voters in each of the three states surveyed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

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18 Responses for “Pounded By E-Mail Mire, Clinton’s Leads Falter Slightly as Jeb Bush Rises in Florida”

  1. Chuck says:

    democrats all over the country are pulling for Jeb Bush! He is so unelectable that him getting the nomination is about the most sure fire way possible to keep the white house in 2016!

    Im looking forward to Bush(because of his name) and Cruz(because he is a canuck) fighting over the stupidest of issues.

    Plan on having lots of popcorn ready come campaign trail time!

  2. Lancer says:

    The fact that Hillary and Jeb are at the top of the list shows the stupidity of the American voter. Hillary is a big government leftist. Jeb is a RINO with big government aspirations, just like all the Bush’s before. There is not a finger nails difference between them on, virtually, every issue.

    Hillary will run on one single issue: I am a woman and we need a first woman president. Anyone against her is a sexist, don’t you know? There’s a reason the dems have launched this absurd “war on women” nonsense. She can’t run on a record, any record, to speak of: No success as Sec of State, no legislation as a Senator and she’ll have to defend the fact that she voted for Iraq.

    Jeb is not a conservative. He simply has name recognition. He’s democrat-lite.

    Though Hillary is being mired in her own scandal de jeur, the Clintons have a very strong connection within the dem party and media in the beltway. What hurts her, ultimately, is her lack of passion, her boring presence and her completely unbelievable false pretense. The dem debates will be fun because she’s going to get hit and hit hard. She isn’t a strong campaigner, nor debater. Her candidacy is built on their name, controlling her events, controlling the questions asked, not accomplishments and she’s divisive. There’s a reason 0bama came from no where, with very little experience to demolish her. If she were truly a great candidate…that would never have happened. O’Malley has been feasting on her in Iowa and other places. It’s something to watch…I think the next two months are telling in that race. Her health will become an issue.

    Jeb is doing this, it seems, as an after thought. He’s, by far, the most liberal of the Repub candidates. He’s pro amnesty for immigration, pro abortion, pro government spending, etc. Jeb will be facing, at this point, Ted Cruz. Ted is interesting because he is a world class debater. He graduated from Harvard with the highest honors. At law school, Dershowitz (a notorious leftist) called Cruz off the charts smart and one, if not, the smartest student he’d ever taught. Next, he’ll have to beat Scott Walker who turned Wisconsin around during the recession, despite facing massive union opposition. Jeb has no problems with his war chest, but can he out issue the other, very qualified, repubs? I think not. I look at a Walker/ Cruz campaign.

    • Chuck says:

      I keep reading about how Jeb is the most liberal of the gop and I cant find one reason to support that claim….

      his track record is ignorance and towing the line for the jesus freaks at the wide right

    • YankeeExPat says:

      Mr. Lancer: a quandary you might answer,

      “the stupidity of the American voter.” …..Why do conservatives’ hold in such high regard the theoretical Idea of America, but yet have such distain for its actual citizens? It’s like going to church on Sunday so that you can gossip about the congregants in the parking lot after services.

      • Lancer says:

        Being a “yankeeExPat” I would ask you how a person, such as, Charles Rangel (the esteemed representative from Harlem) keeps getting elected? Better yet, how does Charles Rangel, ever, get appointed to head “ways and means”?? I would, absolutely, question the stupidity of the American voter. The Presidential race is nothing more than a beauty pageant. Case in point is 0bama, who is the most unaccomplished President in history with no military experience and, virtually, no experience non-government related. He was unsuccessful as a practicing lawyer, unremarkable as a teacher and, yet, he gets elected “President”, many voting for him, admittedly, because of his race.

        How does John Kerry get re-elected, all the while, quadrupling his net worth while in office?

        Why do leftists tout “fairness” and “love of big government” when their representatives keep growing their own wealth off their taxpayer provided position?

        Harry Reid kept getting elected…the entire time growing his personal fortune and getting five of his sons jobs as DC lobbyists!!!

        c’mon man.

        • YankeeExPat says:

          Mr. Lancer:

          Well that was an interesting dance, but at least you’re honest in your defense of your contempt and distain for your fellow Americans

          I would like to share with you the Ideals of America’s greatest President, who would disagree with your opinion

          “Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the Earth.” – Abraham Lincoln

    • djsii says:

      I believe what hurts Hillary the most is her absolute lack of any positive accomplishments after so many years in public office. I can not think of one political achievement that she has made in those many decades that would remotely support her as a viable candidate for President of the United States. Her only accomplishment to date were here ability to run an election campaign, be elected a senator and her eventual appointment as Secretary of State. We have already found out that ones ability to run for and obtain a political office doesn’t necessarily make them an effective leader/politician.

      As for Jeb Bush, since I have been in Florida only 3 years, I have no knowledge of his effectiveness or accomplishments as Florida Governor. I’m sure there was bad as well as good decisions that someone with a better perspective can chime in on.

  3. NortonSmitty says:

    Not one word on why Hillary would not send her messages over standard State Department channels, just a lot of speculation. Here is why:
    As has come to light in the last few weeks the Israelis have all our government communications compromised and eavesdropped on the confidential Iran nuke negotiations. They fed this preliminary info to their Congressional lap-poodles to derail the talks and beat the war drums in the press.
    Doesn’t it make sense that the Secretary of State would use a different system with more secure encryption knowing this? Instead of using the system proven not to be secure? Isn’t that in the best interests of our country? And isn’t that her job?

  4. Lin says:

    Name recognition doesn’t work so well when the brand gets so tarnished with dirt
    So much of her email story is proven to be untrue
    We still don’t have the emails and server was wiped after she was asked for them by congress in 2012
    Private server to evade but wiping is obstruction of justice.
    Surely someone will demand she answer for this in the debates if the media goes easy on her

    Jeb’s positions aren’t mine at all. Yes I agree he’s a rino

    I think Rubio will make a big splash and give Jeb a run for his money
    Not sure I love him either but it should be entertaining

  5. Sherry Epley says:

    Right On Norton Smitty!

    Hopefully your logic isn’t wasted here. . . but, I’m afraid it will be. Plus, Hillary is certainly not the only potential candidate who has done similar things. Until federal government communication systems are made completely secure and leak proof, those systems are certainly not where our governmental officials should be communicating sensitive information.

    In this age of major media outlets taking words out of context and often massively distorting (AKA spinning) information in order to manipulate the public, it is critical that Classified information be kept secure.

  6. Lin says:

    The Israelis are spying on us came to light so Hilary set up her private email server to protect the country?
    So many holes in this
    Hilary’s server is secure? Who says so?
    The server was set up way b4 this came to light (to protect Hilary)
    Everybody spies on everybody and everybody knows that
    We spy too, right?

  7. Twilights last Gleaming says:

    I can see by these comments that the 2016 election will be a “Land Slide” in favor of the GOP. To vote for a leftist progressive like Hillary, would be the final “nail in America’s coffin”. “Get the popcorn out” ….no, more like, get the survival plan out !!!!

    • Chuck says:

      there are only a couple of potential gop nominees who would even make it a contest with hillary.

      despite the made up benghazzi scandal and this rediculous witch hunt over emails, she is still leading the field and by a pretty good margin.

      the gop is going to have to run a moderate to have any hope at all.

  8. Sherry Epley says:

    So just because it has only recently come to light that federal government servers are insecure. . . we should assume there was no problem with security leaks before? Really?

    • Chuck says:

      We already know the bush crew lost “millions” of emails. They were never held accountable for it or even asked where they could have gone.

      this whole email thing reeks of desperation. Its a non story. Like benghazzi. the whole administration has been cleared by multiple gop led investigations.

      GOP should be paying the american tax payers back every cent they have wasted over the past couple years.

    • NortonSmitty says:

      Actually the two coincide perfectly timewise.

  9. m&m says:

    This person is an evil person who lies and decieves the people. She should NEVER be elected to any office not even dog catcher.

  10. Anonymous says:

    Anyone surprised by this headline? This is Florida. Rick Scott got reelected. ‘Nough said.

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