Contrary to Commissioner’s Claim, Flagler County Is Not at Herd Immunity, Health Officials Warn, Only Nearing It

Herd immunity, or community immunity, are terms applied to a population that has become relatively immune to a disease because enough people have been immunized against it. Flagler County, like the nation–and the world–is working toward herd immunity against covid-19, generally believed to be reached when roughly 80 percent of the population has been immunized. But neither the county nor the state or the nation have reached that threshold yet: infections continue, especially through new variants, deaths from the disease continue to accumulate, and resistance to the vaccine among some groups is making reaching the threshold more difficult.

The health officials’ caution, delivered in a written statement early this afternoon, was in response to a Facebook statement by Flagler County Commissioner Joe Mullins, who often writes or speaks falsehoods or makes misleading statements about covid-19 and numerous other matters. “I will be calling for the end of Mask requirements and bring back events all over the county at next meeting,” Mullins wrote this morning, referring to the next County Commission meeting. “We appreciate what some have done to protect us. We are now at herd immunity; if the (experts are right and true to what they say) it’s time!” He then characteristically added an insult seemingly directed at the very colleagues on the commission whose support he will be seeking: “Leaders need to lead like one and not like sheep.” (After this article appeared, Mullins edited his Facebook post to read, “We are approaching herd immunity.”)

Snyder and Bickel, who have been the architect of the county’s response, from a public health perspective, to the pandemic,  were quick to dispute the statement. The county’s response has enabled Flagler to cumulatively keep its rate of infection the lowest in the state, out of 67 counties, and its rate of vaccination in the top 10 in the state. The health officials are seeking to build on those numbers rather than undermine them, so close to the goal.

“Yes, we hear that when 80 percent of the population is immune through the combination of vaccines or having the virus, herd immunity has been reached,” they wrote. “We wish it was that clear cut but herd immunity is a journey and we’ll know when it is reached. The data will inform and tell us. For instance, when hospitalizations related to C-19 is minimal, the positivity rate is below 3 percent, the R factor that measures transmissibility is below 1, deaths related to C-19 are not occurring and emergency room visits for virus like symptoms are minimal.




“Are we at this point today? The data does not indicate we are,” Bickel and Snyder wrote. They say that the indicators are improving, certainly in comparison with last summer, with steady progress.  But the pandemic continues to exact a toll, starting with new infections: there were 238 new infections in Flagler County in the last 14 days, a rate that far exceeds that of the first wave in 2020.

The positivity rate among those tested is at 6.5 percent, with far fewer people being tested–an average of just 233 people in the past 14 days–than in earlier phases of the pandemic, which suggests that the actual number of infections is below that reported by the health department.

As of today, 11 people were hospitalized at AdventHealth Palm Coast with a  primary diagnosis of Covid-19. The county continues to tally new deaths from the disease at an alarming rate, with eight more deaths in the last 12 days, for a total of 113.

On the more positive end, 50,784 of Flagler county residents are vaccinated, representing 44 percent of the population–or just over half where that figure needs to be if herd immunity of 80 percent is to be considered reached. It is also accurate that the nearly 7,000 Flagler residents who have had covid and recovered have a measure of immunity, but that is not assured: reinfections are possible.

Among people 65 and over, 79 percent have been vaccinated, granting that group–as long as it socializes within its own–the distinction of having reached immunity. But that does not apply, say, to a non-immunized older person who ambles about across the community–at the grocery store, in social clubs, at government meetings.

“We are approaching the place referred to as herd immunity,” the public health officials wrote. But approaching it is signally different from having reached it.




Local governments are loosening their covid restrictions in measured approaches, and with the health department’s support. Palm Coast government this afternoon announced that it had lifted all masking requirements on city properties while still welcoming anyone who chooses to keep a mask on. The city council is expected to rescind its citywide mask mandate, or resolution, at its May 4 meeting.

“After consulting with the City of Palm Coast Emergency Management Team, Our City Manager, Fire Chief and our Community Health Partners,” Mayor Milissa Holland said in a statement, “it is time to continue the long planned return to normalcy, to support vaccine efforts in Flagler County, and to recognize the hard work our community did in caring enough to mask up. The mask resolution has fulfilled its intended purpose and now our energy should now be shifted toward encouraging vaccine efforts and awareness”.

Last month the Flagler Beach City Commission opened the way for small public gatherings outdoors. Last Thursday, the commission approved clearing the way for outdoor gatherings of up to 200 people, such as a small surfing contest. The commission will reconsider the issue in a month, possibly expand the allowance by an equal increment, depending on the covid figures at that time, with an eye to resuming First Friday possibly later this year.

City Commission Chairman Eric Cooley even attempted to “sunset” the citywide mask mandate. “I think this has served its purpose. But as far as legislating this to our citizens, I think it’s at the end of its shelf-life,” Cooley said. But Cooley was not advocating an end to the masking requirement in city buildings and stressed that he was not intending to lift the recommendation for mask-wearing. But he said he wanted to leave that choice up to residents. That mandate (officially, a resolution that has no enforcement mechanism) is still in place. But the commission has agreed to reconsider the citywide resolution in two weeks.

The Centers for Disease Control meanwhile today relaxed some masking guidelines outdoors, saying mask-wearing outdoors in some, but not all, circumstances is no longer necessary for those who have been vaccinated. Notably, dining outdoors with groups of friends from multiple households is still considered less safe for unvaccinated people, though vaccinated individuals may do so. But crowded events like outdoor concerts, parades or sports events where social distancing is not in effect remains less safe and still requires masking:

“Now for this item which is the face-mask requirement in City Hall,” Cooley said, “I’m all for that, because that’s easy, we’re all in a closed space and we’re all thrown, tied in here for a long period of time.” That mandate was renewed unanimously. At the Government Services Building in Bunnell, in contrast–where county meetings are held, along with school board meetings and numerous advisory panel’s sessions–masking has become all but voluntary anyway, with the meeting chambers recently drew upwards of 100 residents and staffers for a school board workshop, where half the audience was maskless. But gatherings of the sort, especially as they lengthen in time in an enclosed space, may also be contributing to the persistently high number of weekly infections in the county.

Herd immunity, Snyder and Bickel wrote, “is a gradual transition in a community’s susceptibility towards getting the virus and its spread throughout the local population. Herd immunity involves the constant interplay among four factors:

• Vaccination rates and the immunity that follows;
• Number of folks who have gotten the virus, recovered and thus possess a level of immunity;
• Extent to which public health protective measures are practiced by residents; and
• Presence of variants penetrating the local population.

The interchange among these four factors and data about the number of cases, hospitalizations, positivity rate, the R value or indicator that measures community transmission and deaths will help determine how close we are to herd immunity.”

A definition by the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health puts it this way: “For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 50% to 90% of a population needs immunity before infection rates start to decline. But this percentage isn’t a “magic threshold” that we need to cross—especially for a novel virus. Both viral evolution and changes in how people interact with each other can bring this number up or down. Below any “herd immunity threshold,” immunity in the population (for example, from vaccination) can still have a positive effect. And above the threshold, infections can still occur.”

Herd immunity, in other words, is understood (and understandable) as a nuanced concept with numerous factors to consider, not a black and white demarcation line.

“The key to our success in getting back to normal, keeping the economy open and robust and socializing with friends and family as we did prior to the pandemic, hinges on getting vaccinated,” Bickel and Snyder wrote. “This is the focus for public health staff and our partners going forward. Our goal is for Flagler County to be number 1 in the State for percent of residents vaccinated. Let’s not declare victory in the war against Covid-19 until the war has actually been won.”