A report on global warming by 13 federal agencies concludes that temperatures since 1980 are the warmest in 1,500 years, that the last few years alone have set “record-breaking, climate-related, weather extremes, as well as the warmest years on record for the globe,” that sea levels are rising at alarming rates, that it is continuing (not just “likely”) to get worse, and that “human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate.”
The report all but erases doubt that climate change is the result of human activity, with the range of human contribution to global average temperature increases placed at between 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit between 1951 and 2010.
Even if humans were to immediately cease emitting all greenhouse gases into the air today, global temperatures would still rise by 05 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. They are projected to rise at least 2.5 degrees in the contiguous United States over the next few decades even if emissions were significantly reduced, “meaning that the temperatures of recent record-setting years will become relatively common in the near future.” Increases in the United States are expected to spike by 5 degrees by century’s end with lower emissions, and by almost 9 degrees with higher emissions, making parts of the country potentially unlivable outside of climate-controlled environments.
By law, federal agencies must produce a combined Climate Science Special Report at least every five years. The last was produced in 2014. This third report is designed to provide new information. It has not yet been made public, as it is awaiting approval by the Trump administration. The New York Times published the report this morning after obtaining a copy (a full copy of which appears below).
The climate-science community fears the Trump administration will suppress the report. President Trump and Scott Pruitt, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, are climate-change deniers, with Pruitt declaring, against scientific evidence, that carbon dioxide is not a primary contributor to global warming.
“Scientists say they fear that the Trump administration could change or suppress the report,” The Times reports. “But those who challenge scientific data on human-caused climate change say they are equally worried that the draft report, as well as the larger National Climate Assessment, will be publicly released.”
Sea level rises are of particular relevance to Florida, and of course to Flagler County. Global average sea levels have risen 8 to 9 inches since 1880, but 3 of those inches, or close to 40 percent, have occurred since 1990. “Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to [global mean sea level] rise since 1900,” the report states with high confidence, “contributing to a rate of rise faster than during any comparable period since at least 800 BCE.”
Here’s where it gets especially concerning for Florida: Relative to the year 2000, mean sea level is “very likely” to rise by 0.3–0.6 feet by 2030, by up to 1.2 feet by mid-century, and by 1 to 4 feet by 2100, while a “rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 cannot be ruled out.” An 8-foot increase would likely mean the eradication of coastal parts of Florida such as the Keys, Flagler Beach and the Barrier Island, particularly since mean sea level rises will be lower than sea level rises along the Florida coast.
As for hurricanes, “The projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme coastal flooding along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts beyond what would be projected based solely on [relative sea level] rise. However, there is low confidence in the
magnitude of the increase in intensity and the associated flood risk amplification, and it could be offset or amplified by other factors, such as changes in hurricane frequency or tracks.”
The Times reports: “The study does not make policy recommendations, but it notes that stabilizing the global mean temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius — what scientists have referred to as the guardrail beyond which changes become catastrophic — will require significant reductions in global levels of carbon dioxide. Nearly 200 nations agreed as part of the Paris accords to limit or cut fossil fuel emissions. If countries make good on those promises, the federal report says, that will be a key step toward keeping global warming at manageable levels.”
Trump said the United States would withdraw from the Paris agreement.
The full report is below.
Read the Full Climate Science Special Report (2017)
Anonymous says
Global warming my ass. There is no such thing. Time for useful idiots to wake up!!!
Steven says
Hmmmm, I wonder why they weren’t concerned about so-called ‘global warming’ back in the early 1900’s…. Maybe because there’s no such thing and it’s just life as usual…….
Realist says
This report has been public since January according to Fox news. This is all anti Trump fake crap.
Wishful Thinking says
Hopefully President Trump will abandon the naysayers and his old denials of the harsh reality that global warming has indeed taken hold of our precious plane.
Ivanka is surely going to continue to use her influence on her father. However there exists no logical reason for our President to agree to pay billions of our dollars in subsidies to countries who can continue to pollute the world for a few more years which is a membership requirement of the Paris accord. The entire world must wake up NOW , together, not piecemeal one year at a time. There are no environmental rooftops protecting the countries who take action now to protect them from the global impacts of the countries which do not take action now.
Edith Campins says
He will do his best to suppress it, ignore it, discredit it. He is already on record as saying that he thinks global warming is a “Chinese hoax”.
Sherry says
trump’s squad of “Climate Change Deniers” should read this report and stop ignoring “Scientific Facts”! But, it’s likely that the “ignorant” will continue to live in their paranoid, fear filled bubble of “FAKE Reality” and “conspiracy theories”.
The scientists at NASA . . . for years. . . have been trying to educate our citizens on the “FACTS” regarding the “human impact” on climate change:https: //climate.nasa.gov/causes/ But then again, why create cleaner air and water when there are hundreds of wonderful coal mining jobs to be saved. Insanity rules!
. . .
Katie Semore says
I can’t help but wonder if the ignorance displayed by some commenting here hurts?
Bill says
Since I do not believe the experts, I think the report is bunk. Without a cause, these experts would be unemployed. So keep the BS going.
Veteran says
The earth is warming, but we humans have little to do with it.
Katie Semore says
@Veteran and others who are so certain that humans are not responsible for the rapid or increased circumstances of global warming or climate change, how do you know this to be fact? What are your credentials that make you an expert in the subject?
Veteran says
65 million years ago dinosaurs dominated the earth and it was very warm. The oceans were much higher but there weren’t and dumb humans building things right on the beach. Then came the ice age. Then it warmed up again. Humans had nothing to do with any changes. The earth is 5 billion years old and has gone through many changes and will go through many more man or no man. How do I know all this? I read books written by scientists, astronomers, astrophysicists, all experts on the history of the earth and the universe.
Brian says
Run Chicken Little, run! The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!
Sherry says
This just in from “The Hill”
The Trump administration will push ahead with disbanding a federal advisory panel that reported on climate change, according to the Washington Post on Sunday.
The move follows the leak of a draft of a major climate change report warning of rising temperatures.
The panel – the Advisory Committee for the Sustained National Climate Assessment – is a 15-member panel made up of academics, corporate employees and local officials charged with simplifying findings from the National Climate Assessment for those inside and outside of the federal government.
The group worked on the National Climate Assessment, the mandated quadrennial report that was leaked last month as a draft. The report is due for release in 2018 but The New York Times reported that scientists working on it worried the Trump administration would try to bury some or all of its conclusions and may have leaked it for that reason.
The report concludes that Americans are already feeling the effects of climate change and says it is “extremely likely” that the majority of global temperature increases in the past 60 years are partially due to human influence.
The White House is in the process of reviewing a final version of the assessment.
A spokeswoman for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which announced the panel would not be renewed, told the publication “this action does not impact the completion of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, which remains a key priority.”
The news comes as the Trump administration continues to face backlash for its policies on climate change, which many have labeled as skeptical.
Trump, who has favored non-renewable energy industries such as coal, announced in June the U.S. would be leaving the Paris Climate Accords.