There were plenty of alarming debt and deficit numbers when the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office last month released its Economic Outlook for the next 10 years.
The country’s getting older and sicker. If taxes remain as low as they are–shareholders are getting a free ride, higher incomes are paying the bare minimum, the middle class is not paying a fair share and “pimps for Wall Street,” as Fiorello LaGuardia once called business lobbyists, are still running the show–it’ll go bankrupt, too: we cannot afford a Reaganesque tax structure in a country hobbling with Ronalds and Nancys.
But Phil Swagell, the CBO’s director, summed up some brighter take-aways of the report. For starters, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 that every reactionary Republican opposed–every Republican who wanted a government shutdown in the name of fiscal responsibility–will reduce the deficit by $2.6 trillion over 10 years. That cleans up the previous occupant’s muck: the CBO calculated that the 2017 tax cut and other laws Trump signed that year would widen the deficit by $2.7 trillion over 10 years. There’s no guarantee Trump won’t muck it up again after our fearsomely deranged country elects him again in November.
The brighter takeaways were all about immigrants. Not just legal immigrants. Any immigrant, the “illegal” ones included.
They have a lot to do with that diminishing deficit. “The labor force in 2033 is larger by 5.2 million people,” Swagell says, “mostly because of higher net immigration. As a result of those changes in the labor force, we estimate that, from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenues will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise.”
Most people living off Social Security, and especially most people who will in the near future, don’t know that they owe a good deal of their check to the very “illegal” immigrants they call “invaders,” rapists and murderers: those “illegals” contribute billions to Social Security every year, because even the undocumented are required to pay a payroll tax. Most will not reap a penny of it. Yet they’re helping keep Social Security solvent.
Between 2010 and 2019, net immigration averaged 900,000 a year. Only in 2019, the CBO estimated that net immigration would grow by 1.1 million a year. It was was 2.6 million in 2022, and 3.3 million in 2023. Almost one in every five workers in the United States is foreign born. A quarter are undocumented. Call it an invasion if you like. But be thankful for it.
Economists were puzzled when the country never went into recession in the past year or two, until they figured out that the 2 million jobs added to the economy since Covid includes 1 million more than the budget office had predicted before Covid. The reason? Immigrants. It’s a good time now for you to look right and left, find an immigrant, and thank him or her for keeping us out of recession, and for keeping this country going over the next decades, if we let them.
The Congressional Budget Office numbers don’t distinguish between legal and undocumented immigrants, just as the economy doesn’t. A worker is a worker, and usually, an immigrant is a harder worker, a worker more likely to start a business, more likely to create jobs, less demanding on social services (most of the foreign born are in the 25-54 age group, healthy, toiling and making babies rather than requiring health care services).
And yes, a safer worker: A Federal Reserve Bank brief concludes that “research overwhelmingly indicates that immigrants are less likely than similar U.S. natives to commit violent and property crimes, and that areas with more immigrants have similar or lower rates of violent and property crimes than areas with fewer immigrants.” Another study concluded likewise about undocumented immigrants.
We shouldn’t be closing down the border. We should be welcoming those migrants with open arms. That doesn’t mean open borders. Controls are obviously necessary. But smart controls, not walls or SS tactics.
The bi-partisan compromise immigration bill Biden was pushing last month was draconian–making asylum almost impossible for the next three years while raising the bar on who may be an asylum seeker, institutionalizing a gulag along the border, and giving the government immense “emergency authority” to deport migrants until border-crossings are very low. But it also seeks to manage the asylum system more efficiently and give some people a path to work permits, feeding that vital job pipeline.
Ronald Reagan would have found this bill way too harsh in his day. No Democrat, not even the racist Woodrow Wilson or the preachy Jimmy Carter, would have come near it: It has more in common with the xenophobic 1924 Immigration Act that kept all Asians and most others out of the country than it does with give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to think America couldn’t be this cruel.
But in the spirit of compromise, Biden embraced it. And really, who could blame him? Who wouldn’t want some kind of solution, some kind of breakthrough at least as a baseline from where to craft something saner. Of course, a solution is the last thing Trump Republicans want. It would have demolished their campaign platform. They’d have had only Hunter Biden and disappearing inflation to exploit. So the bill is dead, because Republicans need the border crisis to win.
They’ll win, too, or at least Trump will, and his executive orders will clang: seize, shackle, deport, and make border crossings as appealing as Gaza’s Rafaa.
History, including ours, tells us what happens to countries that make war on people they don’t want. Every time Jews were expelled from England, Spain, Portugal or Italy after the Middle Ages, those countries’ economies would tank. When the French expelled protestants in the 16th century, their economy tanked (and wherever Jews and protestants went, economies flourished). When the United States all but halted immigration in the 1920s, we had our last Depression.
That, in essence, is what invasion-inveigling anti-immigrants want, what this xenophobic war amounts to: expulsions no different than those of Jews and Protestants of former times.
If the immigration pipeline into the United States is turned off, we’ll certainly get a recession. But there’s a longer-term reason why the United States can only survive through immigration. Americans are no longer making babies, at least not nearly enough to keep the population going. By 2040, all the net population increase in the country will be owed to immigrants.
You don’t need to look far into the future to see it if you live in Palm Coast. You’re living it now. Almost 30 percent of Palm Coast’s population is 65 and over. That’s a huge proportion, compared to the national rate, which is barely more than half that. At least neighboring counties can send in their workforces to care for those older folks. But by the end of the century, America will look exactly like Palm Coast, according to the Census Bureau’s latest projection. Nearly a third of the population will be 65 or older.
Who’s going to be there caring for the old, keeping Social Security and Medicare going, filling jobs in a country with a declining-population? Certainly not native-born Americans. They’ll be the old ones. They’ll need help. So will this country.
Immigrants, voluntary and involuntary, legal, illegal, immorally bought, shipped, shackled, raped and dehumanized, made America. They saved America more than once, not least in the Civil War. They made America prosper in its industrial and Gilded ages, and in ages of vanity since. We need saviors. We’ve always needed saviors. That’s what the overwhelming majority of the people at our borders are. They’re no different than their predecessors whose land is their land. They’re not an invasion. They’re not a crisis. They’re a lifeline: theirs and ours.
Pierre Tristam is the editor of FlaglerLive. A version of this piece airs on WNZF.
Concerned Citizen says
This is going to make me unpopular. But I will say it.
I was born and raised in America. I am an American citizen. I served my country and had an honorable career in Public Safety that I retired from. Along the way I earned a college education. Several years ago I opted for a second career and went back to work since my wife, who is a PA still wants to work.
I have zero issue with immigrants coming to this country. And making a better life. However, they need to have proper documents. And be able to pass background checks.
I have to have two forms of ID and pass a Level 2 background check every year to stay gainfully employed in my profession. I also have to have ID to access benefits that I worked hard all my life for. As well as to access my finances.
If I have to do that to stay legal. Then so should everyone else.
RAW says
You said it right my friend. Come in legally and welcome.
I also was bone in America, served in U. S. Army for 27 years and retired. Started a second career and retired again.
I resent people sneaking in the door and being given everything they want for free at the expense of real Americans.
It is time to get rid of the three ring circus in Washington and take back America again.
endangered species says
In other countries especially the ones we used our CIA to overthrow their elected officials in including Haiti, Nicaragua, Dominican republic, Guatemala, Brazil, Chile, and Panama. They don’t have robust background check systems in place. They have crime and murder thanks to americas influence. So your saying we should only let wealthy whites in since they are the ones with background checks? Your going to have a robust immigration system to prop up an economy or your not going to have enough immigration and a declining economy. Maybe building everything for corporate profits wasnt the best idea…
How do you negotiate with people that will sabotage a bill just to prevent the other side from getting a win?
We have a corporate oligarchy not a democracy. Even now getting more votes in a 2-candidate race doesnt mean you win lol.
whos gone to prison for the fake elector’s plot in the last election? Theres a reason they stole the supreme court first………
Jane Gentile-Youd says
Kudos to Concerned Citizen
One law broken opens doors to all laws being broken
I lived in Mexico and had to prove I could support
Myself before allowing me to enter and that was 1975!
Bill C says
There’s a difference between “immigrants” and “asylum seekers” who are fleeing dictatorships and drug gangs. Paper work? Look at Haiti. Those people are lucky to escape with the clothes on their backs, or their lives for that matter.
Pogo says
@P.T.
100% Correct; now, standby for the backlash from the chickens that vote for Col. Sanders.
Skibum says
I believe what the GOP and all of their anti-immigrant sympathizers hate the most about migrants coming across the southern border into our country is the fact that nearly all of them are dark skinned and come from what many here in the U.S. would deem to be impoverished countries. I also think that if these migrants were coming from European countries, were light skinned and looked more like Caucasian Americans, the thinly veiled racists who are so prevalent in the Republican Party and are the most vehemently against Mexican immigrants would be welcoming them with open arms instead of stringing huge buoys in the middle of the Rio Grande, razor wire and 30 foot tall metal fencing along border areas to keep them out. The U.S. is not supposed to have a caste system in this country that treats citizens better or worse depending on whether their skin color is light or dark, or what part of the country they originated from, or the particular accent they have when they speak. I say “not supposed to”, but we all know that even here in America where freedom reigns supreme, we have people in our society who either overtly or covertly adhere to and practice all sorts of discrimination and prejudice against other people, usually people who don’t look like or act like them. And I happen to believe that there is no source of bias and discrimination more prevalent in America than what occurs each and every day with immigrants based solely on the basis of the pigmentation of their skin.
Local says
We don’t have a problem with immigrants. We have a problem with illegal immigrants. Doesn’t matter where they’re from. They come here work for cash and send a lot of it back to their home country and take hundreds of millions of dollars out of our economy and put it into other countries economies as does the politicians in DC these days. Immigrants aren’t they problem it’s immigrants and politicians. And don’t blame the GOP it’s both sides. They always want us fighting about lgbtq race and immigration among other things that’s how they keep power it’s been like that for years. Don’t believe anything any one of them says they Cherry picked conversations and make points and you believe it.
Denali says
So how many ‘red-blooded Americans’ would (or could) actually perform the jobs that these “illegal immigrants” hold. Therein lies part of the problem. Not enough ‘white boys’ can or will do the work.
Back in the early 70’s I got my wife’s brother-in-law (East Coast family money and a worthless degree) a job with an underground utility company at $7.00 per hour. They handed him a shovel and showed him a trench which needed to be graded to lay the new sewer line. He made it to morning coffee and walked off saying that he was above such menial work. Sister-in-law tossed him out that night. I never hired or recommended a family member again.
Ed P says
Is it really anti immigrant sentiment or illegal immigration that we oppose?
Thursday January 11, 2024 the Judiciary hearing, paints a significantly different opinion than Pierre does in the article.
“Illegal immigrants are a NET fiscal drain, meaning they receive more in government services than they pay in taxes.”
They receive 42 billion in benefits, emergency health care 7 billion, and their net fiscal drain is about $68,000 per person after all the taxes they pay. We support them to the tune of $68,000 per person!
Illegal immigrants do add $321 billion to the nations GDP but this is not a measure of their tax contribution or benefits they create for citizens. All most 100 percent of this increase in economic activity goes to them in the form of wages. Many of these dollars leave our country.
69 percent of adult illegals have no education beyond high school vs 35 percent of our citizens.
59 percent of illegal households use one or more major welfare. Many illegals do not work legally.
Please read the report, the summary is really different then what is being presented in the article. Who’s correct? I don’t know.
Pierre Tristam says
Ed P. is misleading. It was not “the Judiciary hearing” that paints a “significantly different opinion,” it was the testimony of John Tanton, the racist director of the outfit that calls itself the Center for Immigration Studies. Tanton, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center, wrote that “I’ve come to the point of view that for European-American society and culture to persist requires a European-American majority, and a clear one at that.” That’s a racist, white-supremacist premise that colors what the Center does. Most of his presentation to the committee was based on unsourced generalities and assumptions drawn from tendentious premises and fallacious extrapolations. Who’s correct? Certainly not the white supremacist, or those who would consider him a serious source.
Ed P says
But are the facts correct?
Does truth change based on the source?
Denali says
Please elaborate on this $68,000 financial drain you tout. What agency is spending this money? What legal basis is there for said agency to spend this money? From what budgetary fund is this money derived?
And as for your comment that “Many illegals do not work legally.” That makes absolutely no sense. Unless you can satisfy the requirements of the I-9 form, you cannot work in this country. No “illegal immigrant” can work legally in the US. So if you hire an “illegal immigrant” you are the one breaking the law.
Ed P says
Denali,
Many illegals work for cash under the table. They work retail bodegas, lawn care, restaurants, and smaller businesses that don’t follow the laws. It’s referred to the underground economy. They pay zero income tax.
The $68,000 deficit after any contributions is an estimate of the lifetime cost each illegal costs taxpayers. Federal, State, and local net cost in 2023 was at least 150.7 billion. This number is arrived at by subtracting the tax revenue paid by illegal aliens-just under 32 billion-from the gross negative economic impact of the total 182 billion. Hence each American Taxpayer currently annually subsidizes illegals about $957 net. That amount will continue to increase.
Remember each illegal birth here has an estimated U.S. cost of $8776 because they qualify for most welfare programs and have to be educated. Some illegals aliens and yes U.S. citizens actually receive a net cash profit through our refundable tax credit program. They get back more then they paid.
These stats can be found in Newsweek Feb 24, 2024.
They also reference the presence of 617,607 non-detained aliens with criminal records roaming freely among us.
Nancy N. says
Many undocumented workers who are employed are working with fake (stolen) social security numbers, so they are in fact paying payroll taxes out of their checks despite the fact that they will never receive benefits from those taxes. And they also pay taxes such as sales tax and other taxes when they spend their income.
TR says
Your saying that there are NO employers out there that are paying illegals under the table to save the company money? I hate to tell you but it’s happening more then you know.
Al says
I come from as a second generation immigrant and have nothing against legal immigration. Unfortunately the left as it always does muddied the waters to push a false point. If people want to come here for a better life great, but don’t start out by breaking the law . Respect our laws or stay where your at just don’t use skin color to justify criminal behavior.
Skibum says
All of these comments about nobody (I guess even the right-wing GOP politicians, huh) has anything against legal immigrants coming into America from Mexico and other Latin American countries? Not even the GOP leader, the impeached and indicted ex president? Even though he has publicly stated numerous times (in his own racist opinion) that Mexico is not sending us their best people, they are sending rapists, murderers, escapees from insane asylums, etc., etc. Republicans had the perfect opportunity to fix a lot of the ongoing problems with both the legal AND illegal immigrations issues that have festered for decades, but they killed their own bipartisan immigration bill only because their candidate trying to get back into the White House again told them to kill it because fixing the problems wouldn’t help his political campaign. Many people love to bash dark skinned immigrants coming in from Latin America as poor, uneducated, criminals, worthless… you name it. But the truth of the matter is that American businesses large and small, those run by families as well as very wealthy business and corporation owners willingly encourage undocumented migrants to come into this country so they can hire them and pay them less than they would have to pay American citizens for the same work. You could look every day for your entire life and not find hardly any Americans who are willing to go out into the fields and do the back braking labor of all of the immigrant agriculture workers on American owned farms. And conservatives love to talk about individual crimes committed by immigrants, while completely ignoring the much larger crime problem in this country perpetrated by our own citizens! It was NOT thousands of illegals who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 and attempted to overthrow our democracy! And yet, the disgraced ex-prez and numerous GOP politicans and talking mouths on fauxinfotainment continue to come to the defense of all of those who have been convicted by juries and sent to prison for their Jan. 6 crimes, calling those convicted felons “hostages” despite their fair trials and convictions in courts of law. So, you want to talk about upholding the law? Quit trying to make the Jan. 6 rioters and insurrectionists “political prisoners” or “hostages”. Quit trying to excuse away the disgraced and impeached ex president’s conspiratorial involvement in orchestrating and allowing the mob of rioters to storm our country’s seat of democracy which injured a number of law enforcement officers and resulted in the deaths of three of them. Hold the Republican Congress responsible for killing the bipartisan immigration bill that member of Congress from both parties worked on diligently for weeks before coming to an agreement that worked for everyone, only to have their entire work thrown in the trash in order to please one man who doesn’t deserve ANYONE’S loyalty or admiration. Resolve to support the continued hard work of those in Congress who really want to come together to find solutions and enact legislation instead of acting out with childish antics and telling lies in front of TV cameras. THEN we can talk about the problem of illegal immigrants coming across the border and how we can fix our broken immigration system that will allow LEGAL immigration to resume for those who wish to become U.S. citizens.
TR says
The biggest problem I see with Bills that are put through congress (no matter for what) is that it is never just for one thing. There is always the presentation “if you give us this will give you that” So that’s why the Bill didn’t pass.
Deborah Coffey says
That’s NOT why the bill didn’t pass. It was because TRUMP told them, “NO!”
Laurel says
Skibum: I agree with both you and Pierre on this subject. Very well said. Though I am behind the both of you, allow me to play devil’s advocate for a bit:
It seems to me that the reality falls somewhere in the middle of everyone’s complaints.
I think that the term “undocumented” should be only applied to the DOCA crowd, and to those legally here waiting for citizenship. The rest, who came across the border illegally, are illegal aliens.
I do not believe that illegal immigrants are “getting everything they want.” I see no proof of that, and I believe that it’s propaganda created to stir people up. Trump stirs things up in an obnoxious manner claiming these people are “rapists, criminals and come from insane asylums,” and in the same breath, states “we don’t know where they come from.” Come on folks, use your brains.
Those enamored with statistics, continue to ignore the statistics that show that immigrants tend to be less involved with criminal activities than American citizens. When I lived in Lake Worth, the Central Americans walked in groups, not to attack citizens, but to keep themselves safe.
I do not believe illegal immigrants should send money outside of the U.S.
I think people should fight to keep their own countries the way the Ukrainians do, rather than all people all over try to come here as a first resort.
Look to those who are hiring illegal aliens. Yes, immigrants are doing the work Americans do not want to do. Every single one of us, who was born here, descended from people looking for a better life, and worked damn hard at making it happen for their children.
President Biden should slam shut the border for awhile and watch the Republicans not know whether to shit or go blind! I gotta say, that would be interesting.
I, personally, love to see the diversity of different colors. Dark skin with dark eyes. Mocha skin with blue eyes. Pale skin with copper red hair. Some many combinations, and so wonderful! Would it be better if we ended up all being the same coffee with cream color, and same color hair, or will we still find reasons to hate others? Being not a fan of humans so much, I have my doubts.
dave says
What I find interesting, all of this talk about illegals and deportation( removal)
Bill Clinton removed 869,646
Bush 2,012,539
Obama 3,066,457
Trump 551,449
Biden ; Of those arriving at the southern border during Biden’s presidency, 2.8 million were removed or returned directly from CBP custody through October ( fact check .org) .
Do we need illegals to carry on and work in this country, we have a lot of dead beat people that stopped working since Covid after they got their govt and state handouts. The only way these days to have a roof put on your home or frame in a house or do lawn maintenance is hire a migrant with the correct paper work ( WORK visas)
Hippy says
No one has a problem with immigrants…. Just get it line behind everyone else and do it legally just like my family did and just like yours did Pierre. . Should we speed up that line yes, should the person coming in take care of themselves without government handouts, yes.
“If the immigration pipeline into the United States is turned off, we’ll certainly get a recession.” yep I agree but if we continue covering the costs of those coming over illegally the same thing will happen. And taking care of those who ignore our laws better than our citizens including those we asked to serve tier country to sleep on the streets is inexcusable.
Bill says
Pierre you are a sick depraved man the chaos that is happening at the border crime drugs free handouts debit cards to spend 10,000 per illegal and by the way your wicked president calls it undocumented listen when you come to America you come legal you sick man not illegal our country is is in turmoil and you accept it because you are reprobate
Former Democrat says
Completely agree. This lunatic Pierre is brainwashed by the liberal cult
Deborah Coffey says
Pierre presented data and facts. Now tell us, WHO is brainwashed?
c says
Best line I saw recently to post in response to a slavering, froth-mouthed troll :
“Links? If you can’t provide verifiable links to your sources, it didn’t happen.”
Consider it posted to Bill’s rant.
And, by the way – here’s some extra punctuation marks .. fell free to use them in the future :
,,,,, …… —– ((( ))))) ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘ ” ” ” ?????
The dude says
This one fell out of the MAGA tree and hit every branch on the way down…
$10,000.00 debit cards huh?
This is exactly why I say that DuhSantis’ little social media bans are useless and pointless unless they also include those over the age of 60… the group most susceptible to online disinformation than any other.
Laurel says
Oh, I don’t know Dude, you’ve fallen for some crap along the way.
Bless your heart!
Deborah Coffey says
Oh, my! Happy in your cult of lies? There are ways to get out, you know but, you’d have to want to live in reality.
endangered species says
racist rons spends millions of your tax dollars paying his airline donor to fly migrants from texas to ny. Logic didnt get them into that situation and logic wont get them out. Plus once the GOP cuts social security and medicare and arrests anyone who is homeless voila no more old people problem just a full green roof inn…
Its kinda like the bipartisan border bill the gop tanked not cause it was bad policy but because they couldn’t handle Biden getting a win. So when you elect people that refuse to govern that is what you get.
tulip says
I, too believe immigrants should be allowed to live in the USA, but only under qualifying circumstances. What has happened is millions of them arrived here in large masses like an invasion. There is not enough housing, they get free food, medical care, schooling and have no jobs to support themselves, which eats up millions of dollars that could be used for other things.Most of them don’t speak English, and Now we have a whole lot of them that are criminals or are incapable of supporting themselves at all. Now there will be more competition for certain jobs because of the additional masses that have arrived, immigrants getting free housing, making it harder for others to find a place they can afford to pay for themselves. Granted we need a lot of them for work that others won’t do, such as working in the farms and crop fields. In their defense, immigrants also are taken advantage of by contractors who hire them for really cheap money, which is not right either. Again, immigrants who wish to come here to live need to earn the right, be able to support themselves, pay taxes and contribute to society and the rest of us will appreciate them and learn from their cultures . We have many many immigrants who have come here that are fine doctors, lawyers, journalists, educators, and other vocations to be proud of and they are appreciated.
endangered species says
endless growth on a finite planet makes sure we need to bring in the cheaper laborers from wherever so company can make more profit and avoid paying wages that support life.
Nancy N. says
Many of the commenters here seem blissfully unaware that from many countries in the world there is literally NO legal way to enter the US for most people, since there are no “lottery” visa slots or so few that the vast majority of people on the waiting list will be dead long before their number comes up. For the average person from these countries, many of which are the poorest and most human-rights violating, asylum is literally the only way to come to the U.S.
If your family’s lives and/or safety were being threatened on a daily basis by violence and starvation, I wonder how many of you would wait patiently for a turn that never comes for proper paperwork? Wouldn’t you do whatever is necessary to ensure your family’s safety?
Deborah Coffey says
When Donald Trump is elected, THEY WILL ALL KNOW. Their lives will be so destroyed, their fear so great, their food so nonexistent, THEY will try to escape to the very countries whose people they despise. THEY WILL KNOW what it’s like to be “threatened on a daily basis by violence and starvation.” What goes around, comes around. What you give is what you get. Or, one might say…What you do unto others, will be done to you.