The presidential race in the Sunshine State is still too close to call.
That’s the take of Morning Consult polling, showing that although Donald Trump has stretched his lead over Kamala Harris, it’s not by much.
“Trump leads Harris inside the margin of sampling error,” the pollsters say, with Trump ahead 50% to 47% in polling conducted between Sept. 9 and Sept. 18.
Harris is running close to Trump despite the state having roughly a million more registered Republicans than Democrats, in part because of a marginal 47% to 44% edge with independents.
This poll aligns with others that suggest the race is closing and that Trump is up 3 points on average.
Both candidates have consolidated their bases.
Harris is the choice of 93% of Democrats, while Trump is preferred by 92% of Republicans.
The polling also suggests that a gender gap that is pronounced in many other surveys doesn’t exist in Florida.
Trump and Harris each have 48% support among women. Harris also is competitive with men in the Morning Consult data, trailing Trump 51% to 46%.
Democrats have suggested that the Harris campaign may step up its efforts in the Sunshine State.
During a fundraiser Wednesday, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff told donors the “map is wide open, and we need the money to compete in seven and possibly eight states.”
He added that he was “just in Florida at the Villages, and it was wild.”
Republicans argue Democrats haven’t got a shot, of course.
During a Thursday appearance on “The Ingraham Angle,” Ron DeSantis dismissed Emhoff’s assertion that Democrats will “see what they can do in Florida” as simple “wishful thinking.”
–A.G. Gancarski, Florida Politics
Wallingford says
I am surprised that Mr Trump ranks so high with women since he constantly degrades them. Now Melanie is defending her nude photos in order to sell books and bring attention to Mr Trump’s campaign. Now, reputedly, he is in a relationship with Laura Loomer, a GOP strategist. Maybe that is why he is silent about RFK Jr’s extramarital relationship. He supports the NC Lt. Governor although he has spewed hateful rhetoric about, among other things, women. And Evangelicals still think he is the Orange Jesus.
Fernando Melendez says
Not happening Florida is RED all the way. Latinos for Trump 2024.
Laurel says
Fernando Melendez: Tell me why, please.
Laurel says
And poof! He’s gone.
Skibum says
Uh, okay sure. You do realize, of course, that Trump has, from the very first day he walked down that escalator announcing his first run for president, denigrated and disparaged Latinos right along with other minorities because he is NO FRIEND of anyone with dark skin. No matter if you were born in the U.S. or immigrated here, when he looks at you and others with dark skin, what he sees is exactly what he has said in public over and over again, and that is that YOU came from one of those “shithole countries” meaning anywhere other than a country that is majority white. What does that tell you about your guy??? For the life of me, I will NEVER understand how anyone in their right mind could support someone so openly bigoted, who adores and praises other dictators like Putin and Kim Jong Un, and who is a convicted felon! But you do you. Because in the end, supporting the likes of Trump says so much more about YOU than it does him. Good luck with that.
Laurel says
What Trump stated about Hungry’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban; “There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orbán. He’s fantastic.”
What Trump said about North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un: “We fell in love.”
What Trump said about Russia’s President Vladmir Putin: (regarding invading Ukrain) “I’d say that’s pretty smart. He’s taking over a country – really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in.”
What Trump said about Chinese President Xi Jinping: “President Xi is a brilliant man. If you went all over Hollywood to look for somebody to play the role of President Xi, you couldn’t find it. There’s nobody like that. The look, the brain, the whole thing.”
All oppressive, authoritarian leaders.
But Trump disses our allies.
Mick says
I cannot, for the life of me, understand why people are not talking about the fact that this current administration has run this country into a hole.
I don’t want four more years of a bad economy and endless wars.
Forget personality. Vote on the real issues that effect your everyday existence.
Sherry says
@mick. . . excuse me
Look at your 401K plan. . . the DOW is at an all time record high!
Guilty of Sexual Assault is NOT merely personality
Guilty of Defamation of your assault victim is NOT merely personality
Guilty of Fraud is NOT merely personality
Guilty of Falsifying Business records is NOT merely personality
Impeachment for Abuse of Power is NOT merely personality
Impeachment for Obstruction of Justice is NOT merely personality
Impeachment for inciting an insurrection is NOT merely personality
Telling over 30.000 LIES is NOT merely personality
CHARACTER MATTERS! Why would you even consider voting for a CONVICTED FELON???
Skibum says
Thank you for stating what should be obvious, Sherry. Mick apparently is another one of those sheeple who will ignore reality and facts that are right in front of his face because, truth be damned, that mighty (R) behind the felon candidate’s name is way more important to him than character, honesty and morality. I believe The GOP is rotting from the inside out more so due to the character defects of its MAGA mob cult members than the horrible examples of humanity that former political party has been putting forth for public office. If it were not for the fact that so many who belong to today’s GOP have serious character faults, maybe, just maybe the horrible candidates popping up out of the GOP like the Herschal Walkers, the Mark Robinsons, the JD Vances, the Lauren Boeberts, the Margorie Taylor Greens, the Matt Gaetzs, and of course Donald Trump would never have been tolerated, supported or voted into office in the first place. The MAGA mob sheeple… THEY own their outhouse that is full to the brim with smelly turd balls.
melly says
Bunch of sockpuppets gaming this place and lying through their teeth. Your 401K IS NOTHING like it used to be. Nobody’s is!
Laurel says
Melly: You’re right! Ours (IRAs) are up too!
No lie.
Ray W says
I see that Mick has decided to let everyone see his cluelessness. He gives war and the economy as the two reasons to vote against Biden.
Back to basics for you, Mick.
When former President Trump claims we had a strong economy during his administration, he is right – to a point. He inherited a strengthening economy of seven year’s standing and it continued to expand through the first 38 months of his administration. Then came pestilence on a scale not seen for a century in America.
The pandemic upended the economies of nearly every nation on earth, including our own. America immediately went into recession; it lasted through the second and third quarters of 2020. The hole was dug, the economy was bad, by the time the Biden administration took charge. Trump had signed into law $2.9 trillion in unfunded stimulus money; it had largely been spent. Biden signed into law $3 trillion more in unfunded stimulus money; much of it has been spent, but the bills allocate certain funds to be distributed over a 10-year span. Congress passed the laws. Both presidents had to try to implement the laws.
The Trump stimulus money, when distributed, yanked us partway out of the pandemic’s hole. Immediately, economists began predicting recession, even though we had just come out of recession. Standard economic theory holds that artificially heating up an economy via stimulus spending risks triggering inflation. Inflation triggers higher lending rates. Higher lending rates cause economic slowdowns. Economic slowdowns cause job losses.
But something unusual happened. The massive infusion of stimulus money heated the economy. Inflation started. Lending rates rose. But the economy didn’t slow down. Jobs continued to be created in unprecedented numbers. The Fed kept lending rates high. The economy didn’t slow down. Month after month, Fed economists stated they would begin lowering rates when inflation came down. They looked to economic reports for signs of a slowdown. The slowdown didn’t come. Finally, some two years after the Fed began raising lending rates, signs of normal inflation and a slowing economy prodded the Fed into lowering lending rates. Economists had cautiously begun talking about the proverbial “soft landing”, which has never actually happened before. Many economists now speak of the likelihood of a soft landing, as if it is happening right now.
Just what about this indisputable sequence of events suggests that the Biden administration made the hole worse, deeper, wider? We have experienced the strongest economic recovery in the world. We are far better off economically than we were four years ago.
A few days ago, the Atlanta Fed released its normal report on the upcoming estimate of third-quarter GDP growth: 2.9%, same as in the second quarter. According to an economist for Apollo Global Management, this suggests that job growth will increase in the near term. According to the economist, four factors show signs of overall continuing strength in the national economy:
1. Jobless claims are falling. I checked. Last week’s jobless claims figure was the lowest since May, at 219,000 for the week. Again, the average weekly claim rate since 1968 is around 365,000, but that number is distorted by the nearly 22 million Americans who were out of work during April and May 2020 and applying for benefits. A drop in weekly filings for unemployment insurance suggests that businesses are trying to hold onto their employees.
2. GDP growth has been strong and preliminary reports suggest it will remain strong in the near term. To the economist, historically, this figure presages strong job growth.
3. Layoffs are down three percent for the year, when compared to layoffs through August of last year. Quits rates are up, suggesting that employees are willing to risk quitting a job in hopes of finding a better job.
4. Mortgage lending rates are dropping; they are just over 6% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. For comparison, a few months ago I looked up the average mortgage rate for such mortgages dating from 1983: around 7.7% on average over the past 41 years.
Mick, I simply don’t understand how you do not know that the war in the Ukraine began in 2014; it never stopped. The war in the Middle East? It began 2000 years ago, and it, too, has never stopped. How you miss the obvious is perplexing to me. It’s as if you are blind. So how can anyone make sense of your nonsense?
I have said this over and over again. A person who does not understand numbers is innumerate, just as a person who does not understand the written word is illiterate. Mick thinks that Biden put us in a hole. The pandemic put us in the hole. We have been climbing out of that hole ever since. The 2020 Congress mandated by law the spending of $6.9 trillion in artificial stimulus money. This cannot be disputed. Both presidents spend most of the money. This cannot be disputed. Both presidents are directly responsible for the inflation that occurred due to the spending of the money. This, too, cannot be disputed. Both presidents are responsible for the unusually strong recovery from the economic disruption. This cannot be disputed, either.
In summary, Mick simply does not understand what happened and why it happened, nor does he understand how we mostly got out of what happened, i.e., he is innumerate.
I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that the unfunded stimulus money put us ever more deeply in debt. To use Fed Chairman Powell’s words, if left unfixed, the debt will in time become “unsustainable.”
When Trump took office, we had a debt of roughly $20 trillion. We are approaching $36 trillion in debt. Yes, during the Trump years, some $8 trillion in debt was added and the Biden administration has seen equal growth in debt. This might be the real issue, but the clueless Mick can’t see it. We are in a different economic hole now. He says everything is Biden’s fault. No, Mick, it is our fault. We keep electing to office those people who best pander and promise, then they do nothing to fix the debt problem.
Sherry says
Dear Ray W. Thanks for trying. . . but, I suspect mick gave up his thinking ability along with his moral compass years ago, when he joined the mindless Fox cult. At this point all he is only capable of posting Fox talking points without question. Another victim of Rupert Murdoch’s 20+ years propaganda campaign for sure.
Kat says
Ray, that was an excellent response. Thank you for taking the time and effort to put together a primer. Now the challenge is getting those who need it most to both read and comprehend what you are saying.
Laurel says
Kat: And Trump says right to their faces “I love the uneducated.”
Skibum says
And that just might be the most intelligent thing he has ever said.
melly says
Nobody with a working brain wants more of this.
Laurel says
Melly: I think it may behoove you to start watching some money shows and get off Fox Entertainment.
Your Debbie Downer shows are leading you off track.
DaleL says
Which Latinos? Cuban Latinos, maybe, if they still buy his lies. Mexican Latinos, unlikely. Puerto Ricans, I don’t think so.
Democrats, Harris/Walz are not perfect. In general though, Democrats still believe in a world/country where facts matter. Democrats believe in the general goodness of people.
Listen to Trump. Listen to his hate. Listen to him and understand he is lying.
Kat says
As just an average citizen, I have made the observation that there are fewer Trump flags and signs this time around. I think Democrats in Florida, along with Republicans who have seen the light, are coming out of the closet. We have been holding rallies every other weekend annd each time they get larger. There was somebody wearing a T-shirt yesterday that said Republicans for Trump. We have veterans, former Homeland security and sheriffs office personnel joining us. I think people are starting to realize that Trump does not represent law and order. Keep foremost in your mind January 6, and the fact that our Police were viciously attacked and he did nothing! Keep in mind that he called our veterans suckers and losers. Keep in mind that he is a convicted felon, looking to keep his ass out of jail.
There are good Democrats running from the top of the ticket to the bottom. Vote blue, save democracy, spread joy!
Pierre Tristam says
You’ve noticed too? I thought I was imagining it. In 2016 and 2020 there were more Trump signs than when locusts descended on Egypt. While I agree with Fernando that Florida will, alas, prefer autocratic and regressive delusions over democracy, as a point of information, a majority of Florida Latinos are in the Harris camp.
Eugene Lopes says
And more Democratic signs.
Pierre Tristam says
I still think Trump will take it. The country is in ICU and he’s its Kevorkian. The fumes are everywhere, even if the signs aren’t.
DaleL says
Sometimes it is not about winning; it is about drawing off resources. Trump will probably win Florida again, but his campaign cannot be certain of it. Any money the Trump campaign spends in Florida draws money away from other states. The Trump campaign is fundamentally weak. It is plagued by grifters who are siphoning off money at every turn. The top of the ticket has wastes campaign time to play a lot of golf. His speeches and rhetoric have become ever more rambling and unintelligible. Rally attendees leave early. Melania has to be paid to attend campaign events.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/23/politics/melania-trump-speaking-engagements/index.html
On the other side, the enthusiasm is palpable. The Harris/Walz campaign is raising gobs of money. Heck, even I was motivated enough to get off my 75 year old derriere and attend a Harris/Walz event in Palm Coast last Saturday. A first for me.
Jim says
Never have I hoped someone is wrong in their opinion as I do here, Mr. Tristam. I sincerely hope you are wrong.
I hope Harris pulls out Florida. Maybe there are enough reasonable people in this state who are not as vocal as the MAGA goons and will go to the polls and vote for Harris and against Trump.
I may be wrong but I think most people in this country may have finally reached their limits with MAGA and it’s idiot candidate.
I guess we’ll see!
Pierre Tristam says
I’m with you Jim. I want to be wrong. I don’t know if I will have that good fortune.
Laurel says
It is true, about the flags, I mean. In 2020, the flags were in your face, behind trucks and behind boats, level with Old Glory. Now, I’ve only seen one such boat on weekends. Maybe I missed a couple, but there is a difference.
Also, a drop in tee shirts. Usually, it’s a white guy in the age range of middle to senior, with a major chip on his shoulder. Two, three weeks ago, I saw one guy, middle age, white, with a falsely drawn Trump face on it, and the guy looked like he would just love to fight about it. I just looked away and kept on going.
BillC says
Why are MAGAs unswayed by arguments about Trump’s attempt to overturn the election and democracy, history of bankruptcies, his felonies; they don’t blink when Trumps tells women “I am your protector”, he hustles his self aggrandizing cards, bibles, coins, etc.?
Because they see these things as virtues. Forget about morals, they want a gladiator, a Dirty Harry, a Charles Bronson in “Death Wish”, Rambo, guys who will do anything, break any laws, use any unscrupulous means to win. Rational arguments are beside the point. The flags? Maybe some have become undecideds. Maybe some are just embarrassed to be exposed for who they are.
JimboXYZ says
The other flags have disappeared just the same. Seems broadcasting anyone’s political position with a flag hanging off the residence is a triggering signal that nobody wants to deal with anymore. And that’s the way it should be. Vote what works for you & family, it’s obvious the last 3.75 years hasn’t worked out for the majority of voters.
DaleL says
It has worked out well for myself and my family. 3.75 years ago the country was in the midst of a pandemic and an insurrection. The economy had tanked so much that both the Trump administration and the incoming Biden administration gave away free “stimulus” money. Go figure that lots of money chasing supply limited goods would cause a spike in inflation.
melly says
Such overblown dramatics! “In the grips of an insurrection”. OMG, where are my smelling salts?
Ridiculous. Nobody is doing better. Everything costs more, so you’re not doing better either.
Laurel says
Melly: I think you need your smelling salts to come back to consciousness.
Yes, people are doing better! How do you explain all the building going on around you?
If you are not personally doing better, it’s on you. Take responsibility for yourself,
Hookah Smoking Caterpillar says
Funny. As I ride my bicycle through the E section Trump signs outnumber Harris by almost 3:1
melly says
it’s made up nonsense to drive turnout. She is toast in Florida unless PBC’s machine is up and running again.
Mike says
Having lived through good times and bad my sense now is the economy is doing relatively well. Not for everyone but name me a time when it has been good for everyone? I have NPA , my observation is that the right wing has shrunk their tent and turnout will decide. Presidential politics is as hardball as it gets! It doesn’t appeal to me when a candidate talks negatively about my country and us citizens regarding immigration, economy, voting fraud etc.,without offering solutions except to say how great they’re going to make even though they had the chance for 4 years to resolve our nations concerns that they talk negatively about. ☮️
Sid says
2015 CBO projection 2019 fed rev 1.5T
2017 tax change rich got riches middle class screwed. 1Trillion deficit /year. House prices down 30% by 2019 due SALT in spite of low interest rates. Obama targets worked. Trump basically made $ by tax breaks to rich.
Real estate 20T to 40T in 4 years. 401 up by 35%. Total wealth stock and real estate 85T. Wealth/ Debt. 2.5 today. 2020. Wealth /debt 1.6
Half inflation was covid and oil. Now we control oil. 1.5million covid death 2020 due to Trump traveling to Taj mahal in March 20 rather taking naverro Jan 20 memo predicting 1.5m death by covid. Used chloroquine on veterans for covid, more deaths by for FDA to allow such.
Destabilized vanuazrla and Nicaragua thus people leaving , they show up 1 year later.
Had congress in 2017, why did he not fix immigration? They will never fix to keep the issue alive to run on.
Sid says
Actual 2019 fed rev 1.45T
melly says
Absolute nonsense, designed to create closeness where there is none. For those of you in tinfoil hats, no, Kamallalala is not close enough for a believable steal on her behalf, especially here. Seriously, give it up.
Polling is garbage anymore, most people lie to pollsters if they’ll even talk to them.
Laurel says
wow
gone