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Clinton Erases Trump’s Brief, Slim Lead in Florida, Up in Ohio, Surging in Pennsylvania

| August 10, 2016

clinton poll 2016 august quinnipiac

She likes what she sees. (Hillary for America)

Hillary Clinton has regained the lead–barely–she relinquished last month to Donald Trump in Florida, turning a three-point deficit into a one-point advantage (46-45) in the latest Quinnipiac University poll of three battleground states. That’s within the margin of error. When Libertarian and Green Party candidates are included, Clinton and Trump are tied.


Clinton has taken a 49-45 advantage in Ohio, where she was tied in the mid-July Quinnipiac poll, and is surging to a double-digit lead (52-42) in Pennsylvania, where she had been losing by two points. The turn-around is consistent with almost every national and battleground state poll since the end of the Democratic National Convention as the Trump campaign has been mired in relentless controversies of its own making–attacking the parents of a decorated Muslim-American soldier  killed in Iraq, calling on Russia to hack into Clinton’s emails, hesitating to endorse Republican leaders who’d endorsed him, and on Tuesday in North Carolina, quipping that “Second Amendment people” could take matters into their own hands if Clinton were to appoint to the Supreme Court judges favoring gun control. He was, in other words, calling for her assassination. Some national polls, including an NBC News/SM poll released Tuesday, show Clinton with a double-digit lead.

But in Florida, Clinton still faces obstacles, according to the Quinnipiac poll. Only 39 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of her, with 55 percent unfavorable, one point worse than Trump’s 54 percent unfavorable rating. That goes against the national trend, where Clinton, though more reviled than beloved, has at least benefited from less dislike than Trump. Both are at record-breaking levels in dislike going back to every presidential candidate since the 1970s:  George W. Bush comes closest, but even then with dislikability at just over 30 percent: nowhere near the distaste for Trump-Clinton.

On the other hand, Clinton in Florida at least enjoys stronger likability for who she is, rather than as a lesser-evil choice than Trump: among her supporters, 42 percent are choosing her because they like her, while 41 percent are doing so because they dislike Trump. When it comes to Trump, only 29 percent are voting for him because they like him, while 54 percent are doing so because they dislike Clinton. That’s been the refrain among mainstream Republicans who have a hard time stomaching Trump–a refrain reflected in numerous elections with Flagler County Republican leaders: they’re embarrassed and frustrated by Trump, but not enough to overcome their antipathy for Clinton. So Trump gets their vote by default, though they would much rather have had a different choice.

“In fact, among Clinton voters in all three states more than four in 10 say their opposition to Trump, rather than their liking of her, is the main reason for their vote,” Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said. “Among Trump voters, dislike of Secretary Clinton is even a larger factor in their choice. Among Trump voters, well over half say they back him because they dislike her.”

When Ohio and Pennsylvania are factored into the latest poll, the advantage more clearly tips to Clinton. Trump has a very narrow path to victory. That path requires that he sweeps Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Losing any one of the three would more than likely doom his chances. At this point, he’s not winning any of the three, and some previously reliably red states such as Arizona and Georgia are becoming battleground states, with some polls showing Clinton edging ahead even there.

“This Swing State Poll shows a mixed result for the presidential candidates, although certainly with an overall edge for Secretary Hillary Clinton,” Brown said. “When voters are asked about a four-way ballot that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Trump picks up a point or two against Secretary Clinton in each of the three states.”

Florida women back Clinton 53 – 40 percent, while men back Trump 51 – 39 percent. Republicans back Trump 91 – 5 percent, while Clinton leads 89 – 8 percent among Democrats. Independent voters are divided with 42 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump, an overall improvement for Clinton, who had been losing the Independent vote. White voters back Trump 57 – 36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 68 – 21 percent.

The Florida poll was conducted from July 30 to Aug. 7 through cell phones and landlines, with 1,056 Florida likely voters. The poll has  a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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21 Responses for “Clinton Erases Trump’s Brief, Slim Lead in Florida, Up in Ohio, Surging in Pennsylvania”

  1. Katie Semore says:

    Remember my words, when it is all said and done, Hilary will beat Trump in a landslide like not seen in a very long time.

  2. Drumpf says:

    A mere 90 days until Trump’s biggest publicity stunt ever comes to an end. Go Hilary!

  3. RP says:

    Polls change almost daily. No way to know for sure who will win, but in the end what we will have, no matter who wins, is another rich politician trying to exert their will on the American people.

  4. Knightwatch says:

    For the good of our country, VOTE BLUE up and down the ticket.

    Brady for Mayor 1.mov

  5. Layla says:

    Can anyone here give me the definition of TREASON? I know that you know what PERJURY IS. Mrs. Clinton has committed both and the mere fact you consider her suitable as a candidate is mind blowing, but not surprising. A few decades ago, she might have been hanged.

    It is likely she caused the death of at least one government informant with her blatant carelessness. They say you get the government you deserve. I think maybe it’s time to divide this country up, with those thinking that TREASON AND PERJURY are acceptable on one side, and the rest of us on the other.

  6. Ws says:

    Keep dreaming liberals😂😂😂. Trump will tell Obama “you’re fired”. Hillary for prison 2016

  7. A Little Common Sense Please says:

    Hillary’s new economic plan about the onetime exit tax on businesses leaving the U. S. is asinine. Most of the businesses have already left. What needs to be done is to put tariffs on ANY imported products(NOW) to make them cost as much as the same product built in America. No more Outsourcing of products unless the tariffs have made the product equally priced with the American product. No more stacking the deck against American workers with cheap foreign slave labor to accomplish “Economic Globalization”. Our leaders, whoever wins this election, need to work for US!! This will give American businesses the biggest incentive to re-open factories and startup new businesses. Use the Money’s collected from tariffs as grants to help Americans restart or start new businesses until our businesses get up and running. Also the minimum wage should be raised to $15.00/hour (only if Tariffs are reinstated). If wages are raised without the tariffs or before the reopening of businesses in the U.S., then this increase in wages would be detrimental to business. But the $15.00/ hour MUST BE IMPLEMENTED very soon and timed correctly! We must have more tax revenues to the government, but with tax rates remaining the same, and through increased taxpayer earnings. Simple math: increase the income of the taxpayer and the tax rate stays the same, the government now has enough to fund the operation of government and pay some the national debt. As more people join the work force due to opening of new business there will be much less government outlays for social programs making it easier to balance the federal budget.
    Donald Trump’s Tax cut to try and stimulate business is also asinine and has been tried before, “Trickle Down Economics”. I never was a fan of that concept. The Rich need to pay their fair share like you and I. The United States government needs to “MAN UP” and do Whatever it takes to protect and stimulate the resurrection of all of our former industrial complex. Only then can we have enough jobs and a livable minimum wage of 15.00/ hour (for now) until it can go up again. People will want to come off of the government assistants programs when they are actually able to prosper and live the American dream of owning their own home, car, or whatever. Globalization is doing nothing but destroying the United States by pulling our economy and our wages down to the level of a third world economy. This will not and cannot be tolerated much longer. The nearly 20 trillion we are in debt will soon bring the U.S. to its knees without increased incomes for businesses and middle class taxpayers. Without the resurrection of America’s Industries in conjunction with a $15.00/ hour minimum wage the United States, I believe, will be doomed. Donald Trump a simple Tax cut for what is left of business and middle class taxpayer in this country just “AIN”T GONNA GET IT DONE”! One more thing Donald, keep your smart assed, off the cuff comment’s to yourself. Every time you open your mouth to say something witty-you think, you put your foot all the way down your throat. Shut up already, you are single handedly defeating yourself.

  8. Geezer says:

    You needn’t be a liberal to vote for Hillary, or to just not vote for Trump.
    I don’t have the time nor the crayons to explain this to some of you.

  9. Geezer says:

    One definition of “treason.”

    When you publicly ask Vladimir Putin, and his KGB to steal classified documents with the intention
    of damaging your opponent’s credibility in a presidential election, effectively giving Russia a say in
    who becomes POTUS–you’re willfully, and purposefully committing a treasonous act.

    Hillary is a demon, but Donald is the devil himself.
    He has short fingers and probably a tail ending in a trident and hooves for feet.
    He looks orange because they ran out of whitewash to conceal his fiery red complexion.

    If Trump were elected, the planet would tremble and shake due to the collective thunderous laughter
    across the globe aimed at the United States on Election day. There would be floods from people peeing
    in their pants from the convulsive laughter.

  10. Tracey says:

    Lock her up

  11. Donald Trump's Tiny Fingers says:

    Hey Geezer, you’re dealing with people that are entirely ok with voting for someone that spent a week trashtalking a family that lost a son in iraq, kicked a baby out of his rally, and called for tea party dingbats to exercise their 2nd amendment rights against a hillary presidency. Crayons are too technical, you might want to try fingerpaint or macaroni pictures.

  12. Geezer says:

    DTTF:

    I am considering finger painting as a medium for explaining things to the dense-as-oatmeal crowd.
    Please know that I am most grateful for your timely and erudite advice.

    Your comments are good too.
    Here’s to you, kid. (clinking my beer mug)

  13. r&r says:

    Martha Stewart went to prison for a lot less than what (SHE) done. I even hate to say her name.

  14. Layla says:

    Geezer, if you did what Clinton has done, we’d already be writing to you in prison. If you can’t understand this, the country is already gone.

  15. Donald Trump's Tiny Fingers says:

    I’m not a fan of clinton, but what’s she done, layla? Why don’t you lay it all out for us here.

  16. Makeitso1701 says:

    Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!

  17. Sherry says:

    Trump checks this web site daily. . . you should too. This web site reports all the published political polls. . . STRAIGHT FACTS. Take a hard look. . . even look at past polls. . . Secretary Clinton leads in the polls the vast majority of the time. Let FOX and News Max and Rush slice it and dice it any way they want. . . the hard numbers speak for themselves:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

  18. daveT says:

    Both of these candidates are the worst of the worst. All we have to do is pick the worst one we like the best. I can’t stand Hillary and I can’t stand Trump. So I might just flip a freaking coin.

  19. everythingawesom says:

    Sweet , hopefully she wont need to murder anyone else now.

  20. Geezer says:

    Layla:

    Way ahead of you Layla…. My candidate was Bernie Sanders, and I knew that the
    media and his own party did not want him changing the status quo. I was hoping that
    Hillary were indicted over the classified email that she treated like AOL mail.
    This way my candidate would assume her candidacy.

    It didn’t happen, and I pledged to vote for an alternate candidate. I changed my mind
    witnessing some of Mr. Trump’s rallies which highlight the worst that America has to offer
    as far as citizens go. And myriad other reasons… If I were to vote for the Green Party
    candidate, it would be akin to helping Trump.

    America is still great, no need to “take it back,” unless you’re Native American, of course.

    I know what “Hillary’s done” and it’s nothing compared to what the Bush administration did
    in sending our young people to die for WMD’s that didn’t exist. Remember ENRON?
    Remember Ken Lay? All Bush’s buddies. Remember the kisses Saudi King Abdullah?
    Remember 5.00 gasoline?

    Hillary is a disgrace. But at least we can survive 4 years with her inept ass in office.
    It’ll all be more of the same crap. We lived through Bill Clinton. At least they’re acquainted
    with the White House.

    Maybe after her administration, we’ll see better candidates. I doubt it though.

    Donald Trump must never get access to the White House. Don’t want to vote for Hillary?
    I understand. Write in Clint Eastwood or a BLT.

    The country isn’t already gone Layla, it’s going through a difficult time, and Americans need to
    demand affordable higher education. A poorly educated populace is what gives us a Hillary or
    Trump as presidential candidates.

    This is why we import people from India and China for hi-tech jobs.

    Therein lies the tragedy.

  21. Sherry says:

    Take a look at what renowned REPUBLICAN National Security people say about dangerous Trump. . . this from the NY Times:

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/08/us/politics/national-security-letter-trump.html

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