Last Updated: Monday, 10:31 a.m.
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee in Florida’s Big bend area at 7 a.m. today as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 80 mph and extremely heavy rain as attention shifted from damaging winds to damaging and potentially historic flooding along the path of the storm through north Florida and Southeast Georgia.
Impacts in Flagler County were expected to be more limited to winds in the 20 to 30 mph range for the rest of the day and rainfall during the day of up to half an inch, with more tonight and a continuing pattern of stormy days and nights ahead, through the weekend. A tornado watch continues to be in effect for all of Flagler County until 4 p.m. today. A wind advisory is in effect until 11 p.m.
But the sea’s impact on Flagler County’s shore was already apparent as churns eroded significant portions of the newly renourished beach at the south end of Flagler Beach, while further eroding the redder, not-yet renourished sands north of the pier. Erosion of the newly dredged sand created cliffs at the south end similar to those at the north end, though the the beach now much further out from the dune line.
The fact that the relatively limited severity of the storm in this area still managed to shear off thousands of cubic yards of fresh sand underscores the vulnerability of the shore and the new reality of erosion’s powers–and higher seas–even in limited weather events. A walkover was damaged at South 13th Street, an area not yet renourished, and one notorious for being among the most heavily eroded.
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville had Palm Coast, Flagler Beach and surrounding areas having a potential for moderate flooding rain, and a storm surge of 1 foot above normal. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ beach renourishment project in Flagler Beach, which had been churning on 24 hours a day, was suspended on Sunday, with some erosion expected around the stretches already renourished.
The storm at dawn was about 150 miles southwest of Jacksonville when it was still a hurricane. By 8 a.m., as it was pushing inland at 10 mph, winds had fallen slightly to 75 mph, with continued declines expected as the storm moved further inland. But the storm was also expected to slow down, lengthening the time its rain bands would lash at surrounding areas, including Flagler County.
The National Hurricane Center warned this morning: “Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern Florida and across portions of central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.”
Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall will affect the St. Johns River watershed somewhat, but not as much as it will affect watersheds further north. “Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning,” the Hurricane Center said. “This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.”
The center was also cautioning that there could be life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Gulf Coast, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above ground level.
The earlier accounts are below this morning’s map.
Tropical Storm Debby Expected to Become Hurricane Before Big Bend Landfall Monday and Swing Northeast
August 4–Tropical Storm Debby is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane by tonight before it reaches Florida’s Big Bend coast and swings toward north-central Florida and Southeast Georgia in a slow churn on Monday and Tuesday, bringing heavy rains bands that will stretch southward toward Flagler County, with three to four-inch rain accumulation locally, according to the Sunday morning forecast by the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
While portions of Flagler County remain in the outer edges of the cone of probability–which means that there is still a possibility that the storm could swing further south than its center track projects–local tropical storm force winds are expected to be somewhat more limited than impacts further north, but not minimal.
NWS-Jacksonville’s current forecast for Flagler County is for possible tropical storm conditions as early as tonight, with evening thunderstorms producing heavy rain, and with wind gusts of up to 30 mph. Possible tropical storm conditions continue for Monday, NWS says, with wind gusts of up to 35 mph. Periods of heavy rain and wind gusts aren’t expected to end locally until Wednesday, because Debby, which will have again become a tropical storm by then, may slow or stall for a brief period over southeast Georgia.
If the storm continues on its current track, the National Weather Service says all of Flagler County has the potential to experience winds of between 39 and 57 miles per hour. The coast may see a storm surge of greater than a foot, which could impact the low-lying areas of Flagler Beach along the Intracoastal Waterway, with moderate potential for flooding rain and the potential for tornadoes. While the St. Johns River and its tributaries are at normal levels right now, water levels are expected to rise, with river flooding possibly persisting for weeks, the National Weather Service says.
Sunday morning the storm was some 150 miles southwest of Tampa, with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and moving north-northwest at 13 miles per hour. Storm surge watches and tropical storm warnings were issued for parts of Florida’s west coast as tropical-storm-force winds are extending outward up to 140 miles. Some of Debby’s outer bands are moving through portions of the Lower Florida Keys and southwestern Florida, with tropical-storm-force gusts.
“The reliable intensity models all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops
an inner core,” the National Hurricane Center predicts. As it becomes Hurricane Debby, it will gradually turn a bit more east and is expected to strike the Florida landmass in the same area where Hurricane Idalia struck–near Keaton Beach–as a Category 3 hurricane last Aug. 30, with storm surges of between 7 to 12 feet in Levy, Dixie, and Taylor counties. Wind and flooding damage was recorded well inland into Georgia, NOAA reported.
For Debby, the forecast models are largely in agreement for the next 48 hours but start diverging as to whether the storm will stay inland or move off the Atlantic coast by Tuesday. There is no disagreement that “Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected.”
An animation of total expected accumulations over the next few days is below, along with the latest detailed briefing from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
Joe D says
Hoping the storm water retention/drain clean outs and water management drain pipe improvements made in 2023 and 2024, will help Flagler Beach avoid another massive flooding event similar to what happened during Hurricane Nicole.
Unfortunately, since this will be a slow moving storm ( trapped in position by opposing winds, leaving it “nowhere to go” according to CNN)…it’s going to have time to drop SIGNIFICANT amounts of rain, before moving north.
Good Luck EVERYONE!
JimboXYZ says
I think any of us would’ve taken this level of rainfall back in drought month of June 2024. Not enough rain for a Sunday to really call this truly a tropical storm level wet threat. We’ve had afternoon thunderstorms in July that were worse than Little Debby for Flagler County. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take being an overcast & drizzly day miss as opposed to watching this or any other sit offshore of Flagler Beach as a Cat 1 or stronger hurricane.
Savvy Saver says
Are we still within the 90 day refund period? Has anyone called customer service yet to make the request?
Knowsalittle says
Stop spending millions of dollars on sand replenishment and build a sea wall or something more permanent. This county wastes more money on projects like this and the pier.
Hank says
You do realize that the re-nourished beach is designed to wash out some after it was complete. If you review the original plans it clearly shows a rebuilt state and then what it will “wash out to” over time. By the way… FB was known for those “cliffs” 26 years ago, long before there was a severe issue. They come and go.
Toto says
No surprise here. Bandaids just don’t last long or work well. There really is no solution to this problem. The ocean does whatever, goes wherever, it’s untamable. Lovely Florida will not acknowledge climate change so count on this only getting worse, much worse.
Learn from others🫠 says
Have to stop pumping sand and hope it stays.
Need seawall, jetties, and a breakwater
a couple miles out in the ocean
That’s what worked in New England in the 50s. Haven’t had beach issues there since. Costly but done once and fixed forever
john says
there getting rich off the beach
PeachesMcGee says
Mother always reclaims her land. Always.
Stop wasting millions.
Jimmy says
Flagler county is insane to think adding sand in a pale with a hole in it!
Tony says
Everyone working on this project must have graduated from Trump University (Magna Cum Laude)
paul faulkner says
them and there buddy’s are getting rich
BillC says
“The project will include construction and extension of the coastal dune and berm (open beach) based on pre-Hurricane Matthew dimensions,” the Army Corps news release states. “Native beach slopes and grades will be maintained, resulting in a wider beach berm for recreation and storm protection.” [May 6 press release]
Climate change? What climate change? It’s only a matter of “sustainable coastal storm risk management”. Pay no attention to “The picture to the right [that] was taken facing south, at South 26th Street, which was renourished.” Don’t believe your lying eyes or common sense..
jeffery cortland seib says
“You never fix the roof when it’s raining.” Why on earth didn’t all the esteemed wise men conducting this project wait until hurricane season is over to start the project where now it’s just like a sandcastle on the beach, washed away at high tide. This project is a loser unless other measures are employed to retain more of the sand in place such as jetties. Are they perfect? No, but beach renourishment projects will never work with the rising sea levels and warming ocean temperatures that bring bigger and more powerful storms to our doorsteps without additional measures.
JimboXYZ says
I was curious as to how this turned out, yet not curious enough to make the drive over to see the beach erosion damage though. Wonder how much of that cliff was beach rebuild washed away for a before & after beach rebuild vs before & after storm for linear feat of beach ? Also how many cubic yards was washed away ? Saw the photos on Facebook for similar Volusia County Debby erosion. If this is the result, it’s a waste of money really. Let it go already, this is like reviving a terminal patient to keep them on life support and the brain damage is already o extensive for any quality of life. Fees/Taxation for this is just extortion & theft. If the Federal Government isn’t going to set aside part of the fossil fuel reserve to do this as necessary, the effort should be something of a border crisis of it’s own to restore & maintain the coastal border of the USA. Instead of billions to other nations, you’re looking a where the billions need to be spent domestically before those other nations.
Flapharmtech says
Don’t mess with Mother Nature. You will lose…always. And drain millions $$$$$$$$ from human coiffures. I’m done with all of it. Be safe and VOTE,
Toto says
Good one Tony! 😂
Denise says
Stupid is as Stupid DOES.. Have they never seen a sandcastle built on the beach? Without any protection the SAND GETS WASHED AWAY! WAKE UP FLAGLER BUILD A SEAWALL to hold that millions of dollars worth of sand in. EH, doesn’t take rocket science!
I'll Be Your Huckleberry says
Anyone ever heard this before, “told you so?”
oldtimer says
Is everyone forgetting that it is in fact a barrier island and if you choose to live there mother nature always wins
Michael J Cocchiola says
The Atlantic Ocean is implacable and timeless. We cannot hold it back for long.
Sand castles made of sand melt into the sea eventually says
I was just gonna ask – do they have the receipt still? Ha!
Boy this was not even a hurricane and look what it did. What a joke, but the funny part is people thought it’d work. lol.
Tony B says
No one ever said the wealthy are intelligent! Keep building on a sand dune ! Eventually the ocean will win !
RobdaSlob says
The entire state of Florida is more/less a sand bar or filled low lands. So where are you living?
Endangered species says
Nothing is wrong just pay your money to endlessly support the wealthy persons and businesses that inhabit the shoreline. Maybe gop will give beach front property owners your tax dollars to support their “profitability “.