In the suburbs of Fort Worth, Texas, on Jan. 31, a Democratic candidate named Taylor Rehmet won a special election for a state Senate district by 14 points. It was the same district Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024 — a 31 point swing, the largest over-performance in a competitive special election since Trump took office a year ago.
That result has energized Democrats around the country about the possibility of a major blue wave in the midterm congressional election this November — but could that wave trickle down to the Sunshine State, where in recent years the GOP has emerged as a juggernaut?
“What we saw in Texas this past weekend is the American people coming together and rejecting what is happening — the corruption and the chaos out of the Oval Office,” says Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried.
However, special elections like the one in Texas are different in many ways than general elections, political analysts note. In the words of Ron DeSantis, “they’re quirky,” as he posted on social media following the Texas election.
“That said,” the governor cautioned, “a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms.”
Florida Democrats boasted about how they narrowed the margins of two strong GOP-performing congressional districts in special elections held last April. Those candidates were boosted by financial contributions from around the country in races that took place just a few months into Trump 2.0.
Even with Democrat Josh Weil outspending Republican Randy Fine in CD 6 by a 10-1 ratio, however, Fine ended up winning the seat by 14 percentage points — a seat Republican incumbent Mike Waltz had won by 30 points just six months earlier.
Democrats hope to seize on the public backlash to Trump’s mass deportations and specifically the hard-line enforcement against undocumented immigrants and even American citizens by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
Nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) say ICE has gone too far, according to an NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Thursday.
The Hispanic vote
The place where Florida Democrats presumably might hope to exploit those fissures is in South Florida, where Miami Republicans like U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar and state Sen. Ileana Garcia have been warning that such actions could backfire on the GOP this fall.
But will South Florida Hispanic voters turn on the Trump administration and vote Democratic?
“Here in Miami, the immigration issue is not so clearcut,” says Florida International University political science professor Eduardo Gamarra.
In a survey of 408 Venezuelans living in Florida he helped conduct last May, Gamarra found that 50% of Trump voters said they would vote for the president again and 22% said they regretted their votes.
While many of those voters are thrilled the U.S. military extracted President Nicolás Maduro from power last month, Gamarra said, they remain upset about the Trump administration deporting hundreds of Venezuelans on a weekly basis after the Department of Homeland Security announced termination of the 2021 designation of Venezuela for temporary protected status and urged them to “self-deport.”
“You’re going to have a significant segment of the Venezuelan voter who voted for Trump who will not vote for a Republican candidate,” he said. “Now, how large that’s going to be is anyone’s guess.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has listed three Republican congressional districts in Florida as “in play” this fall: Cory Mills’ Congressional District 7; Anna Paulina Luna’s Congressional District 13, and Salazar’s Congressional District 27, a district that Trump won by more than 14 points in 2024.
Of the GOP members of Congress from South Florida, Salazar is the most vulnerable, Gamarra said.
“This is not a Cuban-only district,” he said about CD 27. “It has Haitians. African-Americans. Wealthy Latin Americans on Key Biscayne. It goes through downtown Miami and Little Havana, which is no longer Cuban. It’s mainly Honduran, Salvadoran, and Guatemalan … so it’s a very complex district, and that’s why she has trouble.”
Fried argues the immigration issue will backfire on the Republicans. “It’s disrupting communities. It’s putting fear into our immigrant communities. Everybody in Miami is walking around with visas and passports — that’s not how you build community, and I think that there’s going to be a complete rejection of what is happening on the ground.”
Fried’s counterpart, Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power, now a candidate himself for Florida’s CD 2, says “absolutely not” to the chance for a blue wave, noting that a Republican beat a Democrat in an Alabama state House race this past week by 60 percentage points, 28 points higher than Trump’s victory there in 2024
“This is like a bad re-run of Democrats using special elections to claim Florida in play,” he said. “Florida will remain red and we will have victories up and down the ballot because Florida voters have rejected the radical agenda of the Florida Democrats.”
GOP political consultant Anthony Pedicini says Republicans in Florida are insulated from national trends because of their huge voter registration advantage, now more than 1.46 million. “As political operatives, we always watch the trends, and history shows us the party in power often doesn’t fare well, but I’d rather be us than them here in the free state of Florida,” he said in an email.
Special election in Hillsborough County
A coming special election that could indicate how November might play out takes place next month in western Hillsborough County in the state Senate District 14 seat that has been vacant since Jay Collins left it to serve as lieutenant governor on Aug. 12.
Polk County Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow is taking on Democrat Brian Nathan, a union leader and Navy veteran in a seat that Collins won by 10 points in 2022.
“One of the reasons why Democrats have over-performed in special elections is because they have more engaged voters in smaller elections,” Tampa Bay Area political consultant Barry Edwards said, noting the spending in the two special congressional elections last year. “In this race, that’s not going to be the case,” he added.
Tomkow has approximately $239,000 in her regular campaign account and more than $3.3 million in her political committee account, while Nathan has raised around $50,000.
Brad Coker, the longtime pollster with Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, believes Democrats “could be some pickups at the county or state legislative level,” referring to the Eileen Higgins victory in the Miami mayoral race in December.
“As far as the gubernatorial race and the U.S. Senate race, at the moment I don’t see any of the Democrats seriously contending in a statewide general election contest,” he said.
–Mitch Perry, Florida Phoenix
Bo Peep says
No we don’t want anything that Demoncrats ate selling here in Florida.
Tony Mack says
Of course…why would you want Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid or VA benefits? Yow know — all those nasty Democratic programs Republicans are trying to eliminate.
Laurel says
No, you’d rather continue with the chaos and corruption, right?
I’d like to believe that many Republicans are exhausted with the current foolishness, and demand their party back.
Unredacted the Epstein files, bring them all out, and blow up the corruption, no matter who the corrupt are. Stop covering. Stop making excuses.
Skibum says
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaa… me think lambchop not too bright.
Samuel L. Bronkowitz says
You’re talking about the same florida in which the democratic party chose to refuse to allow its electorate to have a say in who they ran as a presidential candidate, right? My guess is probably not since I wouldn’t piss on that party to put it out if it was on fire.
Deirdre says
I pray to God Democrats can turn Florida blue again. Republicans barely had an edge until gerrymandering the state, now DeSantis wants to gerrymander further to the point that Democrats could never win an election.
This should be national news! It might backfire on him though, the Latino population is starting to rethink Voting Republican due to the racism that’s obviously prevalent in the Party.
Our politicians don’t seem to understand they’re supposed to represent ALL the constituents in Florida, not just the ones they handpick. Not because of their personal belief system. One example? Racism against Muslims is next level here, attacking them to disempower them completely. Remember the separation of church and state? Our representatives don’t!
They’re supposed to work for us, we don’t work for them. Florida is screwed without our immigrant population, no one wants those jobs! Our tourist industry is crashing due to extremist politics. They might deny climate change, but insurance companies don’t!
It’s another reason our economy and real estate market is falling apart. Will FEMA be here for us in the next major hurricane? Hope so. Is the State really going to step in to help people when the next big hurricane does massive damage? Is the state really going to step in when flooding destroys people’s homes?
You would think the Latino population might be a just a little upset that Trump has declared himself president of Venezuela and is pocketing all their oil money. Why keep mentioning the Latino population? It’s due to their votes that put republicans in charge, especially when elections are close. This includes national elections as well.
While Maduro was not a popular leader in Venezuela, and their economy was in ruins, swooping in without any congressional approval to kidnap the president of another country is against the law for a reason. Saying it’s about illegal drugs is outrageous. Plenty of evidence that Venezuela wasn’t much of a problem in that regard.
Murdering fisherman in boats just because they’re near their coastline, but in international waters, is immoral and illegal. If they really were trafficking drugs, why not just board those boats and find out? Bombing them is wrong! These little boats could never make it to the United States anyway! It’s murder.
I’m so sick of the lies and excuses our politicians use to justify their atrocities. Anyone who supported that should be in jail. Trump thinks he’s above the law and seems he always gets away with it!
You would think the Latino population would be a little upset that they have done a complete embargo on Cuba and people there are starving to death. Their economy was in ruins too, but the US has no right to interfere with any other country delivering goods and oil to them! Have you heard much of that on the mainstream news? Cubans in Florida know about it!
You would think Trump’s threats against Columbia, Mexico, Panama etc. Would be a sign that this administration has been lying to them.
This is not about destroying socialism or communism, but if it was, how is it our business to interfere how other countries are run?
How many people died in Vietnam using that same excuse? We might have bigger bombs but it doesn’t mean we win the fight, it just means a lot of innocent people suffer.
If we don’t get a blue wave here our economy is screwed. Turning Florida blue means the Trump administration is in big trouble too. Hope so! OMG can’t happen too fast, this is a nightmare!
David Meeks says
Please explain in detail how the dems can fix things. Anywhere!
You can’t!
Just another hate bandwagoneer using their dislike of DT to point the fingers & say we all are racist, right extremest & will destroy the country.
Know your political history people! dems were not always far left & actually had good ideas on how to govern the USA. Problem is they have been taken over my others with agendas, power & endless money.
Both sides were very even headed & only disagreed on some things & many agreed on others. Up until 2017 did things start to go off the rails.
I’ll tell you what…no one was derogatory labeling Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Obama supporters like today!
Deirdre says
I agree, propaganda has been used to push people into extremes on both sides, pointing fingers at each other instead of looking up, which is where you find the billionaires and corporations that actually decide elections.
Having said that, I’ve never much of a problem with republican presidents other than Trump. He doesn’t even try to hide the greed and corruption, and it seems pretty obvious he’s got dementia.
He’s surrounded himself with incompetent yes men that are actually running the country, as he thinks about a ballroom, getting richer and insulting people.
He’s a danger to all of us, the Republicans in congress know it, and they’re not doing their jobs to end this insanity.
They’re going to be the end of their own party in trying to save their own jobs. It’s starting to backfire on them, staying in power at this point necessitates rigging the upcoming elections in their favor.
If I was to blame one group for what’s wrong in this country, it would be the people that don’t vote at all. No one can say anything to them because they live in a bubble, and they don’t see the importance of getting involved. That’s most of the people I know, over 89,000,000 didn’t vote in the last election, but they have plenty to complain about now!
Democracy obviously doesn’t work if people won’t get involved, so important we work together. Most people are pretty reasonable when they sit down together at the same table, as long as they don’t start the conversation calling each other libtards and magats.
Ray W. says
Bo Peep doesn’t want to buy anything that Democrats are selling. Okay.
But does the comment fairly raise the question of whether anyone ought to buy anything the Republicans are selling?
According to a FactCheck.org article, on January 20, 2026, President Trump tried to sell his claim that spending last year on manufacturing construction was up 41% compared to spending in 2024.
President Trump said:
“Investment in American factories is up 41%. That’s a record. Nobody goes 41% up. You go 2% up, 1% up. You go down by 3%. If Kamala got elected, the 41% up would be 41% down.”
Factcheck.org then contacted the White House asking for proof of Trump’s claim. A White House staffer attached in a response a link to a St. Louis Fed study based on census data specific to manufacturing construction spending levels, based on fiscal years, not calendar years.
From the beginning of fiscal year 2021 through the end of fiscal year 2024, manufacturing construction spending levels not only rose over 200%, from $75.5 billion to $235.6 billion, but spending “significantly” rose each of the four years, with much of the growth in manufacturing construction spending coming from the Chips Act that I assert was so opposed by Republican leadership.
In fiscal year 2022, manufacturing construction spending rose 50%, more than the percentage figure claimed by Trump. In 2023, manufacturing construction spending rose by 62%, again a percentage figure greater than Trump’s claimed record 41% growth figure.
According to the White House-provided data, in fiscal year 2025, manufacturing construction spending actually fell by 14%. Since the fiscal year spending data does not include fourth-quarter 2025 data, fact checkers contacted the American Institute of Architects for calendar year 2025 manufacturing construction spending data. According to the AIA, the calendar year 2025 manufacturing construction spending figure dropped by 5% from 2024.
Make of this what you will.
Me?
I agree with Bo Peep that people should not buy things from people they do not trust. I don’t buy everything Democrats are selling, either.
And, yes, some of the 2022 jump in spending came from the inflation triggered by the onset of the pandemic and the several responses to the pandemic.
But my focus has long been to oppose the hateful and vengeful among us and to oppose the professional lying class that sits atop one of our two political parties and to oppose the gullibly stupid among us who launder the professional liars’ lies.
President Trump’s lies about the level of manufacturing construction spending in 2025 can in no way be considered honest. Was it just another lie spread by a professional liar?
Every FlaglerLive reader ought to know by now that no one should take at face value anything said by any member of the professional lying class that sits atop one of our two political parties. Neither should anyone pay attention to the many lies laundered by the gullibly stupid who wander among us.
Thank you, Bo Peep, for providing the opening for this response. It makes whatever the Democrats are selling look less bad!
Greg says
It means a lot in every state and federal election! It shows that Trump is “burnin” his bridges all across America. Even some American athletics at the Olympics, while in Italy, are disrespecting America. I have voted republican for years, and right now, I think we have a mentally unstable president in power.
PDE says
No we don’t want anything that Demoncrats “ate” selling here in Florida…………….
“We”……………Bo Peep, do you really speak for everyone in Florida?
Speak only for yourself, and check your spelling first before revealing your ignorance.
CH says
Sadly, South Florida latinos are still on board with this administration. And what is this I am hearing they are planning on renaming “Calle Ocho” to Eight Street – Donald Trump Way? Is that going to apply to the festival too?
Sherry says
Thank You Deirdre! Excellent comment!
Atwp says
Do we need Florida to win the upcoming midterms? It will help but is it necessary? I’m Democrat. I will vote Democratic, regardless. We see what the Repubs are doing, why waste my vote on them. Hopefully we will win the midterm house and senate, time will tell. We Democrats need to get out and vote. Democrats utilize your right to vote, just perhaps we will see some positive change for the people of America.