Two figures explain the government shutdown: $4.5 trillion, and $350 billion. Illegal immigrants figure in here, but not as you’ve been misled to believe.
The $4.5 trillion figure is the cost of extending and adding to the Trump tax cuts over the next 10 years. Government revenue will be decreased by that amount. The measure known as the Big Beautiful Bill includes spending cuts and will nominally increase economic activity. But according to non-partisan analyses, the bill will add more than $4 trillion to the deficit, and therefore to the national debt.
Higher borrowing costs are part of the problem. By the end of the year we will have spent well over $1 trillion just to pay the interest on the debt. That’s more than we spend on Medicare, more than we spend on war (department of, that is), almost twice more than we spend on insuring the poor.
Donald Trump is not the only culprit. Barack Obama in 2012 cost the deficit $4 trillion when he pushed for the Bush tax cuts to be made permanent. But Obama also got us the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare. Since 2014, some 49.4 million Americans have been covered by Obamacare at one point or another, or 14 percent of the population, including 6.7 million Floridians, where health insurance and wages suck (the state refuses to sign on to more generous Medicaid help for the poor). This year, 45 million people are enrolled, a record, when the Medicaid expansion is included.
Trump’s bill throws 20 million people off Obamacare over the life of the bill. It let supplemental premium subsidies enacted during the Biden administration expire. It would more than double premium costs for Obamacare recipients. I’m on Obamacare. Doubling the cost of my shitty HMO to $17,000 a year doesn’t look like insurance to me.
To prevent that doubling, the cost of extending the subsidies over the next 10 years is $350 billion, or 8 percent of the Trump tax cuts. Unlike tax cuts, subsidies are recycled into the economy in the form of premium payments to private insurance companies, thus benefiting insurers’ bottom line and, by extension, economic growth. Enabling workers to keep their job when they get sick rather than go bankrupt from health costs further adds to the nation’s bottom line.
Tax cuts in comparison just blow holes in the budget, add to the debt and make it more expensive for you to finance your car loan, your mortgage or your student loans.
This is what Republicans stand for: a tax bill that extends tax cuts overwhelmingly slanted to the rich, and against measly subsidies that would allow 20 million people to keep working with some peace of mind, and not so incidentally fatten the wallets of those rich, since most of those on Obamacare are wage-earners in service to shareholder value.
This is what the Democrats have been willing to shut the government over.
So the president got one thing right: the Democrats caused the shutdown. Thank heavens they did. It’s the best thing they’ve done since failing to convince Joe Biden not to run until it was too late. They have finally recovered their voice and purpose on two essential principles: screwing millions of people’s healthcare so the president can cut taxes for the rich is unacceptable. So is ignoring 48 percent of Senators, who actually represent well over 50 percent of the population.
About these Republican lies: No, the Democrats are not looking to give free health care to undocumented immigrants. It’s not happening now. Federal law prohibits it from happening. Nothing in the Democratic proposal suggests changing that. But Mike Johnson, the president and their piously Christian crusaders have been pushing the flagrant lie day after day, because they have nothing else. Because they know that at heart the shutdown is their fault.
They also know that the Big Beautiful Bill benefits far more undocumented immigrants than do Obamacare subsidies. You think those servers at your favorite restaurants are all legal? The tax cut on tips alone will benefit them. More power to them: they deserve every penny, because the undocumented are also subsidizing your and my Social Security trust fund: $26.2 billion in 2023. They will not see a penny of their contributions. We are literally robbing “illegals” to pay ourselves.
And still the Republicans lie.
Trump’s proposal is no proposal: pass the continuing resolution as is and move on. It’s his usual style. No negotiations. It’s the sort of approach that thinks nothing of handing over $600 million to Florida to run just one concentration camp for migrants–the inhumanly named “alligator alcatraz”–while reducing Florida’s healthcare subsidies by a few billion dollars. We are tied with Nevada with the highest proportion of uninsured people in the country (10.7 percent).
The Democrats’ purpose–amazingly for Democrats, for once–is more precise: permanently extend the Obamacare subsidies and reverse deep cuts to Medicaid. (Those Biden subsidies have helped double Obamacare enrollment, to 25 million, with most of those gains in bad-insurance states like Florida, Texas and Georgia.) Trump has been looking to kill Obamacare since 2016, an animus that has its origin in Obama roasting the humorless Trump in 2011. The courts have repeatedly stopped the full demolition, allowing the program to be bled by a thousand cuts instead. It endures.
Trump is looking for a kill shot he can celebrate, as you know he would the killing of anything and anyone he doesn’t like. As I noted in a previous commentary, he doesn’t mind it when hundreds of thousands die from poor or unavailable care.
The spending bill passed the House last month. It needs 60 votes to pass the Senate. All 52 Republican votes are relatively secure (though several Republicans favor extending the subsidies as well). Eight Democrats need to join. As of this writing, three have. If Democrats fold on this one, they’re the ones who deserve incarceration at Alligator Alcatraz.
Pierre Tristam is the editor of FlaglerLive. A version of this piece airs on WNZF.
Bo Peep says
The Dems are stealing their fare.
Palm Coast Citizen says
One thing people often overlook is how these federal reimbursement cuts ripple down to states and counties. Hospitals are legally required to treat emergency patients, regardless of status or ability to pay — so when federal support is reduced, the costs don’t disappear. They shift.
Every Florida county, including Flagler, is mandated under the Health Care Responsibility Act to pay for uninsured residents who receive emergency care outside their home county, and those payments are based on discounted Medicaid rates. When Medicaid and federal reimbursements shrink, those local obligations grow.
So while the headlines talk about “federal savings,” the reality is that state and county taxpayers will end up absorbing the difference.
JD says
Ever since the affordable care act was passed, my insurance, through my employer, has been getting more expensive and worse each and every year. Wonder why that is…?
Pogo says
@Well
…at least, genocide joe is gone; along with our constitution, equality under law, USAID, PBS, public health, sanity…
Another POV:
“AI Overview
As a political commentator for CNN, Van Jones has explained government shutdowns in recent years as politically motivated for the right reason, but at the wrong time. His analysis generally focuses on the strategic miscalculations of Democrats and the weaponization of the process by Republicans.
On the October 2025 shutdown
Following the October 2025 shutdown, Van Jones made these key points on Real Time with Bill Maher:
Poor timing for Democrats: Jones criticized his own party, the Democrats, for forcing a shutdown over expiring healthcare tax credits in the months before the 2026 election. He noted that while their cause was just, the resulting chaos from a shutdown allows
Republicans to place blame on Democrats.
Reversal of strategy: He highlighted the ironic shift in strategy by Senate Democrats, recalling how he was previously convinced by Leader Chuck Schumer that shutting down the government was “stupid.” He was surprised to see the party embrace that very tactic during the latest budget battle.
Political miscalculation: Jones argued that while a shutdown can be a form of “leverage,” the Democrats used it at the wrong time. He expressed concern that the party’s actions would crush the federal government’s ability to function and throw federal workers out of work just before the shutdown’s real effects would be felt… ”
https://www.google.com/search?q=van+jones+explain+shutdown
Today is Friday.
Pierre Tristam says
Your insurance premiums, through your employer, were rising sharply year after year well before the ACA (recall the early 1990s crisis that prompted the Clinton plan). Had Obamacare proceeded without getting eviscerated by Republicans, who took away the mandate and numerous other provisions, it would have slowed (not stopped) the premium rate increases overall, as it would have itself been a much more affordable plan. As it is, it is one more subsidy to private insurers, who have no incentive to slow the increase since Congress has zero guts to regulate the market on the Medicare model. That’s why we’ve continuously had health care costs double and triple or more than other OECD countries.
Deborah Coffey says
Straight shooting on this article, Pierre. You’ve outdone yourself! Thank you. I love TRUTH. “And, the TRUTH will set you free.”
Mary A Priest says
Funny stuff…These POS have been lying to us for over 40 years. Now they got caught. They look you in the eye and lie right to your face. Are you that inept?
Jake from state farm says
When Democrats finally get their priorities straight and stop diverting taxpayer dollars into endless handouts for illegal immigrants—whether it’s for lavish hotel stays, free housing, or other perks—they might start to understand why the American taxpayer is fed up. Maybe then they’ll reconsider the billions of dollars they’ve wasted sending our hard-earned money overseas for things like Sesame Street programs in foreign countries, funding vaccine campaigns abroad, or pushing radical social agendas like promoting trans propaganda to children. We’ve got a country full of people who can work, and take some responsibility for themselves but we give them handouts and they take no responsibility for themselves The liberals prioritize those who have no legal right to be here while Americans are struggling, While we have out own citizens sleeping in the street.
Until they take these issues seriously and address the real needs of our own citizens, I’m not going to lose any sleep over your $17k insurance bill, Pierre. The fact is, Americans are dealing with skyrocketing costs, an overwhelming tax burden, and an immigration system that favors everyone but our own people.
It’s time for our own citizens to come first. It’s time to stop wasting money on endless foreign handouts and start investing in the well-being of the citizens who make this country strong. Maybe when the government gets that right, we can have a more productive conversation about healthcare costs.
Until then, the American people deserve better. We deserve a government that puts us first, not one that spends recklessly while ignoring our real needs.
Atwp says
Am glad the Dems are finally standing and not caving to Trump. Am glad the Dems won a special election. Go Dems. The special election was in Alaska. Go Dems. If Trump has his way, nobody will be able to afford insurance. Go Dems.
Tired of it says
“In 2013, then-businessman and reality TV host Donald Trump said: “A government shutdown falls on the president’s lack of leadership. I mean, problems start from the top and they have to get solved from the top. A shutdown means the president is weak.”
Funny, he controls Congress, he has the Supreme Court in his pocket and still here we are.
Not from State Farm says
Jake from State Farm believes the lies an misinformation he has been fed by the right wing media and the Republicans. No facts are going to convince him otherwise. He knows that all the country’s problems would be solved if we just got rid of all those immigrants. I mean, think of how much better off we would be if trump wasn’t giving $20 billion to that Latino dictator in south America.
Jason says
“…Trump’s proposal is no proposal: pass the continuing resolution as is and move on. It’s his usual style. No negotiations.”
Tell me again what year was the last time congress actually passed a full budget?
@ Pierre Tristam
You think it is any coincidence that the US has the highest healthcare costs while we are also the ones subsidizing the healthcare of essentially every other nation?
I’m curious if you, as a Journalist, have done actual analysis on what fixing prices for entire market would do to the economy as a whole. Have you investigated the effects of limiting what costs can be charged for everything involved in the Medical industry and how that will trickle through the entire economy? I think it is naive, and borderline reckless, to suggest that putting price controls in place will do anything actually good for the entire country other than decimate jobs.
I get that the desire is to not bankrupt people for health care, but lets be intellectually honest about what happens from top to bottom when the government puts it hand on the scale. That doesn’t mean sit back and watch things burn down but it also isn’t as simple as you suggest either.
Dennis C Rathsam says
The thing of it is…Obama care is not as good as it was cracked up to be! Smoke & Mirrors!!!!! No more tax payer bailouts!!! There’s nothing affordable in OBAMACARE!
Mr. Bill says
Pierre….What part of the Big Beautiful Bill are you really against?
Pick one or more:
1. No tax on tips?
2. No tax on overtime?
3. No tax on car loan interest?
4. Deduction for Seniors?
5. Pemanent renewal of tax benefits for opportunity zones for disadvantaged communities.
6. Enhanced standard deductions for working families up to $1500.00
7. Expensing for investment in short-lived assets by eliminating the. tax penalty and giving taxpayers the certainty needed to boost long-run investment.
8. Make permanent extension of the rates and brackets of the 2017 individual tax cuts, providing certainty for households and stability to the structure of the tax code. The law also permanently extends a larger standard deduction.
9. Regarding the estate and gift tax, the law institutes a permanent (and inflation-adjusted) exemption level of $15 million beginning in 2026.
10. Reduction of green energy tax credits.
Your article mentions this: “Government revenue will be decreased by that amount. ”
I’m OK with this. How about you?
Samuel L. Bronkowitz says
Can’t wait for the dems to clutch their pearls over things that they actually agree with behind closed doors, do an interpretive dance about it and then shit out another unlikeable neocon corporate shill for a candidate. What a useless fucking party.
Doug says
Last year saw adds that said you could get coverage on Obama care as low as seven dollars a month. That is not paying your fair share of the cost. After paying for insurance our whole working years and also medicare deductions we get to 65 and go on medicare, imagine our surprise with part B, a supplement policy and a drug plan and we pay approximately a thousand a month. Working age people are not the only ones getting hit with this.
John Stove says
Republicans and this absolute idiot of a President are making all of us pay for their stupidity.
Example:
Trumpo enacts a tariff on China, China retaliates by not buying ANY soybeans from US farmers and China buys from Argentina. US farmers in turn start screaming about being bankrupt so Trumpo will be giving them a bailout to help them survive. Trumpo will also “Loan” Argentina $20 million dollars to prop up their government…..look up how many times Argentina has defaulted on its loans.
How in the holy hell is any of this helping us pay for ever increasing cost of inflation, groceries, gas etc etc
Oh….but thank god we got a new Rose Garden patio and a new Ballroom at the white house and Trumpo can continue to relax and play golf at taxpayer expense!!
Republicans and Trumpo will forever be taught in school and remembered as the worst President in the history of this country.
Pierre Tristam says
@ Jason, letting that howler of a sentence pass (“we are also the ones subsidizing the healthcare of essentially every other nation”), no one is proposing to “fix” prices (unfortunately), as the subsidies do nothing to that end, except enrich insurance companies. But if you ask about price-fixing, Medicare’s model is not so bad, and a single-payer system on that model should have been what Obama should have stuck to in 2008-10.
Mark Webb says
Jake from state farm:
I agree with you that our taxes should be spent on amaicans first.
So, let free education, free health care begin for all of us.
As a disabled vet I would love to get my health care free .
Glad you agree as well!
CH says
Well Jake from State Farm you are taking 20 Billion dollars from the American tax payer and giving it to Argentina. I did not authorize you to do that. How does that help me?
Since you are here Jake from State Farm can we talk about my homeowner insurance bill that you keep doubling every year?
Peter says
They sold their homes in NY, brought their bad driving skills, brought their rude and unfriendly behavior ,and brought their politics that they fled in the first instance,then brought their leftist ideology to Florida, the exact things they left the North for. Now they stand waving their little cheap cardboard signs which mean nothing to anyone.
What positive action have theirt leftists politicians done for them ? Why did they flee from the North in the first place ? Why did they bring their leftist political views with them ? Why are they complaining ? Go back if you don’t like the current regime and vote for your communist Mayor.