By Carl Golden
Stung by a succession of high profile polls showing President Joe Biden trailing former president Donald Trump among crucial swing state voters, the White House and its allies in Congress have scrambled to calm jittery nerves and reassure donors and establishment leaders all is well and under control.
Many aren’t buying it.
There have been demands the campaign change its strategy, direction and messaging. Others have mused aloud what many of their colleagues voiced privately – perhaps it’s time for the president to reconsider his decision to seek a second term.
The official reaction from the campaign team and the White House has produced more skepticism than satisfaction and won’t be heeded, despite repeated warning signs the American people hold the president responsible for the ills afflicting them and seems incapable of overcoming them.
Bluntly put, “Bidenomics” – the president’s blueprint for economic growth – has been a flop, largely because it is a futile attempt to convince the American people to ignore their real life experiences of rising costs of living, punishing interest rates and the general unaffordability of everything from housing to automobiles to groceries.
The president’s overall approval rating is lodged at 40 percent, and an astonishing 70 percent believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
His disapproval is above 60 percent on inflation, the economy, foreign policy, crime and immigration.
In hypothetical matchups against Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the president trails by between one and four percent. His support among normally reliable voting blocs of young persons and minorities has eroded alarmingly.
Democrats are divided – often bitterly so – over the administration’s posture in the war between Israel and Hamas. Questions and concerns over his age, physical stamina and cognitive skills are stubbornly persistent, and a majority of self-identified Democrats believe he is too old to serve a second term and would prefer another candidate.
In light of what appears to many to be the ingredients for a landslide loss, the “keep calm and carry on” reaction from the White House and campaign team seems jarringly out of touch with the national mood.
The president’s defenders point out the election is a year off – a time span in which the political dynamic can change dramatically – and that polling this far out from actual voting is not indicative of the ultimate result.
Moreover, they argue, it is Trump himself who voters will find so dangerous and extreme they will turn away from him no matter their misgivings about the president and his record.
The American people may be discontent with Biden, but they live in fear of Trump. Or so goes the theory.
The ex-president’s legal entanglements and the jeopardy posed by guilty verdicts will drag on through the primary election process and could impact voters’ decisions.
Trump’s increasingly strident attacks on his opponents, his incendiary rhetoric, and threats to retaliate against and prosecute his critics if he returns to the presidency have provided ample fodder for the Biden campaign to emphasize the existential peril of placing him and his extreme MAGA band of followers at the head of government.
The strategy is an effort – similar to his victory of 2020 – to turn the election into a referendum on Trump rather than on the Biden record.
Despite the misgivings over gloomy polling data, Biden has given no indication he’s considering a change of heart.
The larger establishment remains supportive. Biden faces no significant primary opposition and will accept his re-nomination at next summer’s convention.
The polling may continue to paint a bleak picture in the coming months, producing more agita for the party establishment.
They’ll just have to get used to it.
Carl Golden is a senior contributing analyst with the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University in New Jersey. You can reach him at cgolden1937@gmail.
Deka says
Yes, he should not run again but not because of what the polls are showing. He should NOT run because he has FAILED America. He ran on a pltaform that he would bring normalcy back to America and clearly he failed at that
Laurel says
Deka: Change the channel. This is clearly tedious.
Laurel says
As an Independent, this is why I hold no loyalty to the Democrats. They are absolutely the worst at showing off their accomplishments, while the Republicans set the narratives stuffed with disinformation and no real plans for our future other than make the rich richer, and fill their own pockets. The Democrats act like good guys, while Trump is the most offensive person a human can possibly be, with his complete focus on himself. Egocentric to historic proportions, literally. The Democrats start whining about “maybe Biden is too old,” while the Republicans are painting bulging muscles on Trump’s fat torso. They are three years apart. Biden is fit; Trump is fat.
Trump sells his own NFT cards of himself. Are you serious? Have you seen them? What, is he nine years old? Yes. A nasty, rambling, not too bright, bullying, offensive, dangerous, nine year old at that. Man, he does not give a damn about you other than your vote.
This is where dumbing down of America is useful to some. Putin’s happy.
Larry says
Well said, whoever runs against trump must win or Democracy as we know it is gone. I implore people to not throw their vote away on a 3rd party candidate, that would seal trumps victory. I don’t care if it’s Biden or Micky Mouse.
Marc Crane says
Biden should definitely run again!!
Suzie says
and this is why the country is in such trouble! People who still think Biden is capable of this position. He wasn’t to start with and things have gotten progressively worse.
Laurel says
Suzie: Worse in what way? What “trouble” are we in exactly? Things have not gotten progressively worse, with low unemployment, a strong economy (people keep spending) and inflation coming down. Change the channel because you are getting limited *information.* Try watching marking shows, like Bloomberg instead, and see what’s really happening.
raw says
I agree….Run for the hills!
palmcoaster says
I totally agree with Marc.
Biden is fit, healthy, experienced senator most his live, elected VP and Potus now, compassionate man, occasional accidental stumble or speech hesitant , but is a clear climate change concerned not a denier and also No Totalitarian. This from a still registered moderated Republican (needles to say what GOP’s call us) that does not want to loose our Democracy.
I will vote for Biden anytime versus dictators …and no matter the party, as the prospective is really scary.
melly says
Gaslighting has gotten them nowhere. But they can’t seem to help themselves. It’s elder abuse at this point.
The man has to retire. There is no other way. He is not in full control of his own faculties, and that is dangerous from a national security standpoint, not to mention to himself and his own family. Makes you wonder what compels them to let him continue on this path? The people of this country deserve better.
Laurel says
Melly: Whether you like it or not, the economy is strong, gas is down, and inflation will, over time, be lowered by the increase of percentage rates.
So, please give me examples of “gaslighting,” “elderly abuse,” and Biden “not in full control of his own faculties.” Also, in you opinion, just exactly who should run instead?
The dude says
I mean… you’re not wrong.
Plus the fact that he’s currently dealing with over 90 indictments from decades of wanton criminality ranging from cooking the books, and stashing away national security secrets in his bathroom, to literally attempting to subvert democracy and overthrow the government.
We are in full agreement here, trump should drop out of the running for president.
palmcoaster says
“dangerous from a national security standpoint” I guess you forgot to say Trump fits your description not Biden! Taking illegally high secret confidential documents and passing tem around to foreign interest and our enemies as reported?
What is wrong with some of you people?
Concerned For Our Future says
I whole heartidly agree wth you Palm Coaster. We shoud be very afraid for our freedoms, way of life and demoncracy if Trump is re-elected. Why are we allowing treasonous behavior? He is definitely not mentally fit, if he feels it’s okay to lie repeatidy. He has no respect for the American public if he thinks we believe that crap!!!!!!
DaleL says
Presidential polling, nearly a year before the election, is prone to huge errors. Former President Obama had a 42% Gallup poll approval rating in November 2011. He won reelection. Mr. Trump had a 43% approval rating in November 2015; he lost reelection.
If Mr. Trump becomes the Republican nominee, the 2024 election will NOT be about Biden’s age because Trump is also an old man. Rather it will be a contest between Democracy and Fascism.
Many will object and claim that Mr. Trump is not a Fascist, but consider what the definition of Fascism is. Dictionary.com: “a governmental system led by a dictator having complete power, forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism, regimenting all industry, commerce, etc., and emphasizing an aggressive nationalism and often racism.” Consider the characteristics exhibited by Fascism. From World101: “Fascist regimes cultivate images of their leaders as great figures to be loved and admired, often through mass media and propaganda.” “…the persecution of political enemies.”
If Nikki Haley becomes the Republican nominee, that will change the election entirely. I believe that she would be the most likely to defeat President Biden. That feeling is apparently shared by the very conservative Koch Network, which has endorsed Haley over Trump and DeSantis. (Actually, almost any Republican other than Trump, should be able to beat Mr. Biden.)
It is rather like rock, paper, scissors. Biden (paper) covers Trump (rock). Given a chance, Trump (rock) will break Haley (scissors). However, scissors will cut right through Biden’s paper.
Ray W. says
Thank you, DaleL.
The issue is not whether anyone agrees with you. The issue is whether you are willing to follow reason to whatever end it leads, instead of distorting reason to fit whatever you want it to fit.
Reasoning minds may differ on just about any subject matter, but in this comment you exemplify what our founding fathers hoped would happen if our nation adopted its proposed Constitution. In the end, you might be proved either prescient or completely wrong.
I have argued recently that Trump is not truly an autocrat or a dictator, as those terms are defined. Instead, he thinks he should lead because, as Socrates put it, only “those who know should rule.” I assert that Trump thinks he is the only one who knows. Therefore, he is the only one who should rule. The people, as Socrates argued, should follow the one who knows. Trump thinks only he deserves to rule, as exemplified by his comment that only he can fix things. It may that all his life, Trump has held a belief that he was destined to rule.
I accept that I could be wrong, and that Trump is nothing more than a fascist dictator in the making, as you argue, possibly forged in the Putin mold.
Again, thank you.
Larry says
Too late for Biden to step aside now. Hey, if the population of this country (with help from redistricting an cheating) want to elect the monster that is trump, screw it and let them deal with an autocratic theocracy with the most ignorant person to ever hold office. Democracy (what’s left of it) is on the line, a 2nd trump presidency would end Democracy as we know it.
Laurel says
The Republicans know that if they do not cheat on election laws, they would definitely lose. The Democrats tend to win the popular vote. Heck, Trump even had “alternate electors” standing by, and claimed “fraud” before the elections even started, um, but only in states where he might lose.
Land of no turn signals says says
Why not how much more damage can he do? No wait strike that NO.
marlee says
Why ask that question…he has integrity and experience!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
and……..
More People Are Working Than At Any Point in American History
Rallied the World to Support Ukraine in Response to Putin’s Aggression
The First Meaningful Gun Violence Reduction Legislation in 30 Years
Lowering Costs of Families’ Everyday Expenses….The Inflation Reduction Act
The Unemployment Rate Fell to 3.5% – Lowest Level in 50 Years
Deficit Reduction – The Largest Decline in American History
Deborah Coffey says
The only reason Joe Biden will lose in 2024 is because people like you write nonsense like this. Are you a Republican plant?
Atwp says
Why not run again. Trump ran twice and was defeated the second time. If Biden is the Democratic nominee I will vote for him again. He won in 2020 he can win in 2024. The end wave didn’t happen in 2022, there is a good chance a Republican will be defeated in 2024. Remember the poles in 2016, Hilary was leading in most of the polling, look who won. A batch of information was delivered about her in October of that year and she lost. Democrats don’t waste time on polling, go and win again. You got my vote.