By William Garriott
Nov. 5, 2024, was a tough day for cannabis legalization supporters.
Recreational legalization ballot questions in Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota all failed.
Two medical measures passed in Nebraska but face legal challenges over the validity of the signatures required to get the measures on the ballot. Why two measures? One legalizes the medical use of cannabis, and the second regulates it.
A medical use ballot measure also appeared on the ballot in Arkansas, but the state Supreme Court ruled before the election that the votes can’t be counted because the title and name were “misleading.”
These failures raise questions about where the movement to legalize cannabis goes from here.
The red wall holds
I’ve been researching cannabis legalization in the U.S. since 2014. I’ve previously written about how the cannabis legalization movement’s primary obstacle is the “red wall,” a term I use to refer to the 20 states where Republicans have total control of state government and recreational cannabis remains illegal.
Another four states without recreational legalization – Kansas, Wisconsin, Kentucky and North Carolina – could be described as “red wall adjacent.” These states have Democratic governors, but Republicans control the state legislatures.
Pennsylvania may become the fifth of these red wall adjacent states if Republicans can win a majority in the state House of Representives.
Support for recreational legalization is much lower among Republicans than Democrats, which in part explains why red states still have some of the most restrictive marijuana laws in the country.
In both North Dakota and South Dakota, recreational measures were defeated for the third time in 2024. It remains to be seen whether supporters think it’s worth the time and money to try again.
In Florida, the measure failed despite the majority of voters supporting it. State law requires amendments to pass with 60% of the vote, and the measure got approximately 56%.
Medical marijuana has more support. In Nebraska, the two medical measures passed decisively. However, legal challenges could void the results. Things will remain uncertain for weeks or even months, as any decision will probably be appealed to the state Supreme Court.
The red wall fortified by a red wave
In national elections, it was a good night for Republicans.
Former President Donald Trump won a decisive victory and will return to the White House. Republicans will control the U.S. Senate, though they won’t have the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. The day after the election, it is still unclear whether Republicans will control the U.S. House.
Trump will have the opportunity to set the political agenda in Washington, including for cannabis. He has voiced support for some legalization measures in the past, such as creating safety regulations, rescheduling, preserving states’ rights to pass their own laws and decriminalization of small amounts of marijuana for personal use.
But cannabis legalization was not a priority during his campaign or his previous presidency. Though Trump backed Amendment 3 for recreational use in Florida, his support was tepid compared with priority issues like immigration. The fact that the measure failed and is unpopular within the Republican Party does not create much incentive for him to put the issue at the top of his agenda once he returns to office.
What happens now?
Where the legalization movement goes from here is unclear.
The ballot initiative process has been a key tool of the movement, providing activists with a way to bypass elected officials who oppose legalization. But the results of the Nov. 5 elections suggest that this strategy may no longer be viable in red wall states. This is particularly the case when state officials are committed to keeping legalization measures from being implemented even if they pass, as happened in South Dakota in 2020 and is currently happening in Nebraska.
AP Photo/Jack Dura
The failed initiative in Arkansas is also significant. On the surface it was a bill to expand and enhance medical access. But it also included a novel provision that would automatically legalize recreational use in the state in the event federal legalization were to happen.
It was this provision, and the failure to highlight it in the proposed amendment’s name and title, that prompted the state Supreme Court to label the measure “misleading” and prevent the votes on it from being counted.
Given that medical cannabis legalization remains significantly more popular than recreational, this strategy made sense in a red state like Arkansas. Had it been successful, it would have provided a new way for activists to navigate the unique challenges posed by red wall states.
Looking ahead, legalization supporters will have to wait and see what’s possible once Trump is in office. The federal rescheduling process that began under President Joe Biden might still go through. If it does, it would move cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I, the status reserved for substances like heroin and LSD that are considered to have the least medical benefit and highest potential for misuse. But it would not resolve the gaps between state and federal law in states where cannabis is legal.
It also would not create an obvious path toward recreational cannabis legalization – and might even hinder it further. This is because Schedule III drugs include substances like Tylenol with codeine and ketamine – both of which are legally available but require a prescription and are tightly regulated.
This is a far cry from the “regulate it like alcohol” strategy that helped recreational legalization gain a foothold 10 years ago.
William Garriott is Professor of Law, Politics and Society at Drake University.
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Sue says
Good! We don’t need it!! It would not be for the better people driving under influence. Cause more crime. Tell me what’s the benefit of it?????
Al says
Why is promoting turning people into potheads such a big deal with the left? Is it because once people get stoned then you can feed them all kind of crap and call it delicious? I don’t want stoners on the highway anymore than I want drunks out there.
Funny how one big mouth lawer in Florida first claimed he needed it for his brother that didn’t even live in Florida. Then he wanted legal for all, maybe it had something to do with a large paycheck from a certain corporation. This corporation contributed 145 million of the 150 million dollar warchest to fool the public. The only backing this law had was all astroturf and not grass roots like they claimed.
In both Colorado and California street vendors still sell most of the grass. The reason is the cost including taxes and the potency which is lower in the legal stuff. The BS that it would put millions into schools and law enforcement, is this the same millions that the lottery has produced?
JimboXYZ says
Legalizing pot & other drugs is enabling the decay of society. The only one’s that want it legalized are the one’s selling it as harmless. I don’t know of anyone that even wants their kids abusing alcohol or tobacco as a hobby. Like the border nobody wants the drug cartels setting up shop in their community. Why do you think people try to escape the inner city drug dealers for a “better” life elsewhere ? Drugs at the level just impair performance. How many rock stars went from talented musicians to junkies that couldn’t perform on stage, fired from their bands. Same holds for the addicts that get fired from their jobs from minimum wage to professional careers. Look at Hunter Biden, anyone wanna end up like that guy. Anything he accomplished is tainted by his father’s name & influence that he was getting for that nepotism/cronyism. In November 2024, he gets sentenced for 4 felony counts of falsifying a gun application, failure to pay IRS Income taxes. Those are the crimes, but one has to dig deeper to find he was a drug addict, The politician’s son for his own version of P-Diddy debauchery. The fame of the tragic loser ? Fact that Joe & Jill Biden are proud of Hunter is laughable, they have no other choice, he’s family, their pathetic child. Rick Scott has a brother that has addiction problems just the same. With the money those family have, they have to hide the dirty secrets of at least one drug addict in the family. The rest of us don’t buy into that tragic stories of flawed characters with our votes. Nobody ever wanted an alcoholic living under their roof just the same. Over the last 30 years, nobody wants the nicotine fiends, the cigarettes, the vapers around publicly either, doubt anyone wants their home to smell like an ashtray just the same. Dens of Iniquity are the bars, nothing but trouble over there at closing time. And that accrues to abortions ? Makes you wonder how many children or abortions resulted from poor choices & decisions by the drunken & impaired addicts hooking up with each other at 2 AM. I guess that’s preferred to getting into a drunken brawl at that hour ?