President Obama has opened his biggest lead yet in Florida over Mitt Romney and is either holding or solidifying his leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today. The polls are based on likely voters, not merely registered voters. In all three states, Obama is well over the magic 50 percent mark–53 percent in Florida and Ohio, 54 percent in Pennsylvania. Romney is at 44 percent in Florida, 43 percent in Ohio and 42 percent in Pennsylvania.
Romney’s challenge is no longer to win just undecided voters–a very thin sliver–but to win back voters who have decided to give Obama a second term.
As the breakdown of the electoral map stands today, Romney cannot win the election if he does not carry both Florida and Ohio. Even then–and even if he manages to win Iowa and Wisconsin, his running mate Paul Ryan’s home state, which has been trending Obama by growing numbers–Romney would still have to take back one of the states currently in the Obama column to pull off a victory (Colorado, New Mexico or Virginia).
More likely, if the election were held today, Obama would win with a sizable electoral vote majority of 332 to 206.
Wednesday’s poll numbers add to a series of national and swing-state polls that are universally showing Romney’s campaign losing ground as the effects of his offending remark about 47 percent of Americans being “dependents” on government and the continuing absence of specifics in his economic plan take their toll. The latest Bloomberg National Poll has Obama up by six points. He’s up by seven in the National Journal poll, by one in the conservative Rasmussen poll, by three in Gallup’s and Politico’s, and by five in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
That last set of polls show Obama breaking into or above the 50 percent mark in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin. The Journal poll also has Obama well ahead in Virginia, Ohio and Florida. On Wednesday, Intrade, the market predictor, increased Obama’s chance of winning the election to 74.4 percent, its highest probability yet.
The Quinnipiac poll further darkened Romney’s chances on several counts. Voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania see Obama as better than Gov. Romney to handle the economy, health care, Medicare, national security, an international crisis and immigration. Romney ties or inches ahead of the president on handling the budget deficit, which has never been a deciding factor in voters’ choices, particularly when voters themselves carry negative balance sheets in their personal finances.
“Gov. Mitt Romney had a bad week in the media and it shows in these key swing states,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The furor over his 47 percent remark almost certainly is a major factor in the roughly double-digit leads President Barack Obama has in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The debates may be Romney’s best chance to reverse the trend in his favor.”
The first 90-minute presidential debate is scheduled for Oct. 3 at 9 p.m. at the University of Denver. It’ll focus on domestic policy and be moderated by PBS’s Jim Lehrer. The second debate, in town-hall format, is on Oct. 16 at Hofstra University in New York. It’ll be moderated by CNN’s Candy Crowley. The third debate, on foreign policy, will be on Oct. 22 at Lynn University in Boca Raton, with Bob Schieffer moderating.
“The wide difference between the two candidates is not just a result of Romney’s bad week,” Brown said. “In Ohio and Florida votes are basically split down the middle on whether the country and they and their families are worse or better off than they were four years ago. If voters don’t think they are worse off, it is difficult to see them throwing out an incumbent whose personal ratings with voters remains quite high.”
“The president’s strength results from the fact that for the first time in the entire campaign, he is seen as better able to fix the economy than is Romney, the issue that has been the Republican’s calling card since the general election campaign began. And the economy remains the overwhelming choice as the most important issue to voters’ presidential choice.”
Here are the Quinnipiac poll’s details on the Florida numbers:
Women likely voters back Obama 58 – 39 percent while men are divided with 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Hispanic voters go Democratic 55 – 41 percent while independent voters are split with 49 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama.
The economy is the most important issue for 47 percent of Florida voters, while 20 percent list health care; 10 percent list the budget deficit and 8 percent list national security.
The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 – 41 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 – 40 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 – 42 percent and back the president 53 – 45 percent.
Voters tip to Romney 48 – 46 percent on who would do a better job on the budget deficit.
A total of 53 percent of Florida voters are “very confident” or “somewhat confident” in Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 46 percent for Romney.
Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 57 – 40 percent, while Romney doesn’t care, voters say 55 – 41 percent.
In Florida’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Republican challenger, 53 – 39 percent.
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets a 47 – 27 percent favorability while former Gov. Charlie Crist gets a split 40 – 40 percent favorability.
Florida voters disapprove 48 – 38 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.
“If Gov. Charlie Crist is contemplating a political comeback, he is neither in great or terrible shape. Overall voters are split on whether they view him favorably or unfavorably,” Brown said.
“If Crist is planning a run as a Democrat, he would enter a primary with almost four times as many party members seeing him favorably as unfavorably,” said Brown.
bud says
God help us. Four more years, really?
Anon says
So many say that the President has done a poor job.
Ask the families and service members who got out of the closed war in Iraq how bad he’s doing.
Ask the millions in Michigan and Ohio whose jobs were saved with the auto bailout how bad he’s doing.
Ask those who the health insurance companies red-lined from receiving coverage and now can purchase coverage how bad he is doing.
Ask wall street whose profits are up how bad he is doing.
Ask the terrorist organizations whose leadership has been decimated how he is doing.
Do we need more jobs, well of course we do. Is there a deficit, yes and it didn’t occur overnight and can’t be fixed in 4 years.
I think he is doing fine for a man who is up against a group in Congress whose main goal is to see that he is a one term President. I thought that their main goal is to represent the people who elected them. If it isn’t they are taking money under false pretenses.
It isn’t so much that Romney is a poor opponent.
It is more so that Republican’s only represent people who look, sound and feel like Romney.
Their policies adversely effect; Women, Poor, Elderly, Blacks, Latino, Healthcare, Education (Romney’s latest salvos). So who is left?
The Republican’s are becoming the minority of the voting population. Hence they have enacted the new poll tax voting laws in a desperate attempt to hold on to their fleeting power. Although the poor people in the so-called red states will line up in droves to vote for Romney they don’t see the reality of the fact that he nor his party have their best interest at heart, and he has said as much.
FRANK DILIBERTO says
Ask the 8.4% (national) 12.4% florida unemployed how Obama’s doing
Ask about the $16 trillion debt …………………………… how’s Obama doing?
Ask 1 in 6 american women that are on food stamps how Obama’s doing
Ask why we dont have a balanced budget,
Ask what he has went golfing over 200 times and has not yet met this year with the budget committee.
Ask about foreign policy……………………………..how Obama’s doing
etc, etc,etc
The Truth says
I think you need to stop relying on Fox News as your only news source, as your information is very skewed.
John Boy says
Frank, get a grip. FDR took 11 years to get us out of the depression and he had total support of all of the American People. Obama has done a great job in 3 1/2 years while having Teabaggers and Republican obstructionists fighting him every step of they. The opposition have voted against their own bills and polices for one reason only. Religious idiots and Bigots who are scared to death of a Black man leading the nation. Can’t imagine what they will do when we have an hispanic in the White House. The Republicans and Tea Baggers think they are smarter than all of the prior political leaders who took 250 years to create the Country we know and love. The Republicans and Teabaggers want destroy this country and create a Salmolia West lie country we only haves and have nots. If you like Salmolia so much, you can simply move toere. but please take your maggot destroyers with you.
Chutz Putz says
“Do we need more jobs, well of course we do. Is there a deficit, yes and it didn’t occur overnight and can’t be fixed in 4 years. ”
The poll sampling must have been conducted by the last remaining Democrats willing to say publicly they will vote for Obama.
In case you had not heard, the deficit has been at or above one trillion dollars for each of the last four years. This is not a rational way to attempt to fix the problem. I would say there has been NO attempt to fix anything by this President. Health costs have skyrocketed .
There will be no jobs whether he gets re elected or not. The workers in this country shut down on him a long time ago and it will get worse.
You can confiscate the wealth today but the workers will make sure there will be none confiscate tomorrow.
Lonewolf says
People are starting to realize the GOP has nothing to offer except the same policies that crashed the economy in 2008
JL says
The Republicans are becoming too out of touch with people. It is clear they only want to serve millionaires. Oh, better make that, Republicans only care about heterosexual white, male millionaires who do not have children with disabilities, no children in college, and no parents on medicare.
It’s not enough anymore. And if anyone really doubts that is Romney’s only concern, then they have no clue who Romney is. It’s all he cares about, and his statement about the 47% is just a glimmer of the real person he is.
I don’t trust him, and I surely will not vote for him. Am I worse off than I was 4 years ago? No. Are most of you? Probably not. But you could be. Think about that. With the wrong person leading this country, things COULD be worse. Now that’s scary.
Neal Ecker says
I never pay much attention to polls as you rarely seem to get an accurate whole story regarding the polling circumstances. What I will say is that I have never seen a more arrogant and inefficient individual occupying the White House that I do now. With the Mideast situation getting worse every day, this week with all of the world leaders at the United Nations would have provided an excellent opportunity for President Obama to try and conduct constructive meetings on a face to face basis. Instead, he decides to appear on The View and his press secretary gives the reasoning that the President is either “too busy”(campaigning) or, he stays in touch with the world leaders via telephone. How much more of a show of limited support can Obama give to the people of Israel than by making excuses why he cannot meet with their Prime Minister? How stupid can we be not to have extra security at our Embassies on September 11 and then see the results of these decisions as we watch the bodies of our Ambassador and three other Americans arriving back in this country on an airplane. To have the White House Press Secretary stare into a television camera and say these attacks had nothing to do with terrorism, on Sept.11!, really! To pressure officials to approve a $500 million dollar loan to a solar company and then have that company declare bankruptcy within 60-90 days AFTER spending that money? When the press reports the abysmal job figures, they are “disappointing and not where the administration would like them to be” if we had a Republican President, the headline would be “Employment number disaster continues!”. This President had a Democratic Congress for the first 2 years of his administration and couldn’t get a Budget passed- probably due to the fact that he didn’t present one! It appears that the thought process of the current administration is to try and spend our way out of the economic situation we are in. God help us if this guy is re-elected and, if he is and things don’t get better, we can always still blame George Bush!
Clint says
Of course Obama is leading in the polls. Who in their RIGHT mind would vote against this criminal. The chicago community organizer who has been STEALING America’s future and giving it to all away. The one who has been bought and payed for by the communist LEFT . The one who they will write in the history books as the “EVIL ONE” that destroyed America from within. But don’t you worry , those FREE MONTHLY WELFARE CHECKS will be delivered on time…That is until they have TOTAL CONTROL of the population. Then you will see the real OBAMA and the END of AMERICA !
The Truth says
I am registered as an Independent. I refuse to register with either party as I like to keep an open mind about issues that our country faces. With this in mind, here are my thoughts on the upcoming election:
While Mitt Romney may be a business man, it is clear how out of touch he is with America. He has never experienced what it is like to have to worry if you can cover the rent, how your going to buy groceries, whether or not you’ll have a job at the end of the week, etc. I don’t blame him for this, just stating that he’s never had to experience this. Mr. Romney has proven time and time again how out of touch he is with the American people. His policies on the economy and foreign affairs proves how out of touch he is. He plans to cut taxes for the wealthiest of Americans (sound familiar) while eliminating tax deductions that many of the middle class utilizes. He has a very reactive nature, particular with foreign affairs. With how hated we are as a nation, I don’t think bombing every country that disagrees with what we stand for is the answer.
His comments on 47% of America were uncalled for, regardless of how they were acquired. He should be speaking as if he’s being recorded 24/7. His comments proved that he does not care for those struggling, those working and living pay check to pay check and those who require government assistance. He has put this stigma on those who collect food stamps or welfare that they are lazy and do not want to work.
President Obama, while I don’t agree with all of his decisions and policies, seems much more genuine and in touch with most of America. I do genuinely feel he wants a better America and wants to improve our country. No one will agree with every President’s actions, but overall President Obama has done a good job in my opinion. The deficit and the debt, which are two different things which many in the GOP fail to realize, are very misleading. Our country is rebounding and our recent economic figures recently have proven this. Housing values are rising, spending is up and the stock market has rebounded. Are we where we want to be? Of course not. We have a long way to go.
The point is: we are getting there. To give up on a President who is putting the current policies in place to get this country on the right foot only to go back to the same policies that got us in this situation from the beginning would be crazy at this point.
As an Independent voting in the 2012 election, my vote goes to Barack Obama.
Whew Wee says
Watch out, there are some Democrats turning on Obama….the ones that work hard and own businesses.
Fifty-five percent of small business owners and manufacturers would not have started their businesses in today’s economy, according to a new poll that also reports 69 percent say President Obama’s regulatory policies have hurt their businesses.
“There is far too much uncertainty, too many burdensome regulations and too few policymakers willing to put aside their egos and fulfill their responsibilities to the American people,” said Jay Timmons, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, which commissioned the poll along with the National Federation of Independent Businesses. “To fix this problem, we need immediate action on pro-growth tax and regulatory policies that put manufacturers in the United States in a position to compete and succeed in an ever-more competitive global economy.”
The poll reports another ominous statistic for job creation: “67 percent say there is too much uncertainty in the market today to expand, grow or hire new workers.” Why? Because “President Obama’s Executive Branch and regulatory policies have hurt American small businesses and manufacturers,” according to 69 percent of the business owners surveyed.
Here are the key findings in the poll, as highlighted by NAM:
67 percent say there is too much uncertainty in the market today to expand, grow or hire new workers.
69 percent of small business owners and manufacturers say President Obama’s Executive Branch and regulatory policies have hurt American small businesses and manufacturers.
55 percent say they would not start a business today given what they know now and in the current environment.
54 percent say other countries like China and India are more supportive of their small businesses and manufacturers than the United States.
“Instead of smoothing the way, our government continues to erect more barriers to growth through burdensome regulations that increase costs for small businesses and all Americans,” NFIB president Dan Danner said.
Those statistics suggest that even Democratic and independent small business owners criticized Obama, because only 46 percent of poll participants identified as Republicans, per Roll Call.
“It’s clear that small business owners and manufacturers are becoming increasingly more frustrated by the federal government’s inability to solve America’s economic problems,” Bill McInturff, whose Public Opinion Strategies conducted the poll. “Manufacturers place most of the blame squarely on policies coming out of Washington.”
Dorothea says
@whee whee
I found the definition of “small business” in this poll very Romneyesque.
Half of the respondents had businesses with gross sales or revenues above $500,000. More than a third had gross sales or revenues over 1 million dollars.
5. And, what were your gross sales or revenues for your most recent fiscal year?
20% Less than $100,000
22% $100,000 to less than $500,000
14% $500,000 to less than $1,000,000
18% $1,000,000 to less than $5,000,000
8% $5,000,000 to less than $25,000,000
4% $25,000,000 to less than $75,000,000
2% $75,000,000 to less than $150,000,000
3% $150,000,000 or more
http://pos.org/documents/small_business_and_manufacturers_national_survey_combined_interview_schedule_for_release.pdf
rich says
If Obama is re-elected everyone should arm themselves and be prepared for an Islam takeover of we love and use to call the good old USA..
Rocky Mac says
Regarding polls. Yes they do work and prove themselves reliable. It is funny how the losing party will always use that excuse. Check back to the polls prior to 2008, the outcome of the race almost mirrored the polls.
Are any of the above posters aware of the vandalism of political signs taking place in our town? Why would any decent person throw paint on a person’s truck because he had a particular candidate’s sign on his lawn? Now that is down right nasty. Not to mention criminal. What good does it do to steal signs of a particular party? They will only be replaced, adding more funds to that particular party. Why can’t we respect each other’s right to free speech?
Vincent Neri says
I guess the question is how might someone grow the economy while cutting the deficit. This is not an easy question to answer because in order to cut the defiicit it requires revenue and spending cuts. When people are taxed more they spend less and when the government spends less it decreases demand. If not for entitlements and the Federal Reserves action where would we be? If the United States were a business it would be bankrupt and it is highly doubtful that that business would emerge from bankruptcy. I do not see the Obama or Romney plan working. Technology will continue to greatly reduce hiring. For example compare what a caterpillar front shovel can get done to people working with shovels. How many people does that front shovel replace? The reason we are not seeing robust hiring comes from many factors including but not limited to a decrease in overall demand, technology, low wages, outsourcing, regulations, business expenses, failed educational system and european debt crisis. We have a combination of negative factors that are just impossible to over come. This is the perfect storm.
Ben Blakely says
How obama is completely clueless and out of touch with America. How he supports terrorism and his muslim brothers. This is a billion dollars that could have been used here to help education and the poor but barry obama is sending it to his muslim buddies in Egypt and sneering at us in America.
The Obama administration notified Congress on Friday that it intends to give Egypt’s new government an emergency cash infusion of $450 million, but the move immediately encountered resistance from lawmakers wary of foreign aid in general and of Egypt’s new course under the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood. This is part of the $1 Billion dollars Obama is scheduled to give to the Egyptians even with the country moving solidly toward control by the Muslim Brotherhood of terrorists.
Vote obama OUT of office. He is destroying America and running the country into bankruptcy. Your children’s future is at stake. Only YOU can remove obama and save the country!
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/world/middleeast/white-house-move-to-give-egypt-450-million-in-aid-meets-resistance.html?_r=0
Ben Blakely says
Listen my friends
And you will see,
What King Obama
Has done to you and me.
On January twentieth
Two thousand and nine,
He took control
We started our decline.
With record unemployment
And people forlorn,
Our tax money spent
Poverty the Norm.
With free phones for some
And EBT cards too,
The lazy ones come
Freebies from me and you.
On November the sixth
Two thousand and twelve,
You must go vote
Or were going to hell.
The country deserves better
Than the tyrant King and Moochele,
America must survive
And ring the liberty bell
Ben Blakely says
Obama Plans To Cut Medicare $250 Billion
Washington Post Journalist Bob Woodward says he has documents that show President Obama plans to make significant cuts to Medicare if reelected. This is despite his current attacks on the Romney/Ryan ticket claiming that he will protect Medicare.
This proves once again the TOTAL HYPOCRACY and DISHONESTY of Barry Obama.
Dorothea says
@Ben Blakely
If it’s true, Obama intends to cut $250 billion from Medicare over the next 10 years. Sounds like a better plan to save Medicare than Ryan’s VoucherCare which will cost seniors thousands and leave them on their own to find an insurer.