By James Piazza
An attendee at an October 2021 political rally hosted by right-wing activist Charlie Kirk asked: “How many elections are they going to steal before we kill these people?”
The attendee was referring to the baseless allegation that Joe Biden stole the 2020 U.S. presidential election and that he unfairly denied Donald Trump reelection.
Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, condemned the question. But one year after the Capitol insurrection that was fueled by Trump’s claims of a rigged election, Kirk, other commentators and politicians – and, of course, Trump himself – continue to fuel false beliefs of widespread election fraud. Embrace of the “Big Lie” that Trump really won the election has become an article of faith for many Republican politicians. It is also widely believed by conservative Americans; in an October, 2021 poll, 60% of Republicans said the 2020 presidential election results should definitely or probably be overturned.
This creates a potentially dangerous situation for the United States. Acceptance of electoral defeat, something political scientists call “loser’s consent,” is essential for stability and order in democracies.
‘Sore losers’ can drive terrorism
Democracy is based on a compact: Election losers agree to accept the results and encourage their supporters to do the same.
In exchange, losing politicians get a chance to run, and win, in a future election.
However, loser’s consent is fragile. And when it is broken the risk of political violence increases. In a recent study I published, I conclude that when election losers in democracies reject election results, becoming “sore losers,” trust in political institutions is eroded, political polarization and tribalism grows and mistrust thrives.
This produces a situation where political violence is no longer seen as taboo, particularly among supporters of the losing political party. My research shows that when losing politicians in democracies refuse to accept election results, citizens begin to see terrorism as more acceptable and domestic terrorism increases.
Here in the U.S., outrage over the Big Lie helped fuel the violence at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. It has also driven domestic terrorism plots.
For example, federal authorities announced charges in July against two men who planned to bomb the California Democratic Party headquarters. The two men were radicalized by the Big Lie and expressed hope on social media that the attack would “start a movement that could keep former President Donald J. Trump in office.”
Understanding the data
In my study I examined domestic terrorist attack data in over 100 democracies from 1970 to 2018. I also looked at public opinion on whether people view the use of terrorism as justifiable in 30 democratic countries from 2017 to 2020. I based my definition of domestic terrorism on the one used by the Global Terrorism Database. Finally, I used data to measure whether politicians who lost recent national elections in democracies refused to accept the results. I limited my analysis to democracies that were free from electoral irregularities.
I also accounted for other factors that might make domestic terrorism more common or acceptable in my analyses. These include the country’s economic state, ethnic diversity and political violence history, as well as the government’s strength and stability.
For public opinion on terrorism, I weighed the effects of factors such as the age, gender, income, education level, political ideology and religious and ethnic identity of the survey respondent and the amount of terrorism in the country over the previous three years.
When contested results lead to violence
Here is what I found.
First, when losing political parties in democracies reject election results, domestic terrorism increases and gets more intense. By how much depends on how many, and what types of, political parties were sore losers.
Countries where all political parties, including the losers, accepted the election results experienced only one domestic attack about every two years. However, countries where one of the main political parties lost the election but refused to accept the official results – the situation most like what the U.S. currently faces – subsequently experienced around five domestic terrorist attacks per year. Finally, countries where all losing political parties rejected the election results subsequently experienced more than 10 domestic terrorist attacks per year.
Second, the sore-loser effect also boosts acceptance of terrorism. Only around 9% of citizens of democracies where all losing parties accepted election results regard terrorism as justifiable behavior. This percentage increased to around 27% in democracies where the main, losing opposition party or parties rejected the election – the category most approximating the United States after the 2020 election. Finally, around a third of citizens in democracies where all losing parties rejected election results also tolerated terrorism as a tactic.
These results show that when politicians refuse to accept a free and fair democratic election’s outcome, and instead choose to promote a popular narrative of a stolen or dirty election, they place their people in physical danger. Popular tolerance for terrorism grows, and so does terrorist activity itself.
James Piazza is Liberal Arts Professor of Political Science at Penn State.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
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Dennis C Rathsam says
Right away you bring up Trump, as a sore loser. You couldnt wait to bring him up, problem isTrumps name keeps comming up a lot lately…I wonder why? Now lets talk real facts…The biggest sore loser in the histoty of the US HILLARY CLINTON!!!!! This bitch is still cryin,its been years, and she still cant handle being a loser, & cry baby.
Makeitso1701 says
Yes, Hillary Clinton lost, but unlike the BIGGESST SORE LOSER who can’t let it go is the orange buffoon con man trump. But worse than that he’s still spreading lies about the election and unfortunately people like you can’t accept the truth. trump lost, Biden won.
Then you have these home-grown terrorists, like the proud boys, that love trump only because they knew they had a racist president that had their back.
So, you trump people keep bringing up Hillary Clinton, just seems to me that proves who the sore losers, cry babies are. Like the movie Frozen song…. LET IT GO, LET IT GO🎶
The dude says
What’s “histoty”?
Hillary who?
What year is this again?
The name “trump” will be forever synonymous with “sore loser”. Fact.
The orange hued man with tiny soft hands is the biggest cry baby in the history of cry babies. Sad that you types consider that lump as your “alpha”. Sad indeed.
Ray W. says
Dennis C. Rathsam presents yet again as a person who appears to be locked in a perfect or bad worldview, one in which the “real facts” establish that Hillary Clinton is the biggest loser in U.S. history. Such is the life of a partisan.
For those who live in a good/better/best, bad/worse/worst world, Hillary Clinton can be characterized as a sore loser, which is bad, and Trump, who attempted to foment an insurrection that descended into people storming a building in an effort to catch and kill certain politicians and who continues to advocate the Big Lie that an election was stolen, can also be characterized as a sore loser. But Trump’s actions rank as far worse in scale compared to Clinton’s whining in public about how she should have won in 2016. Trump’s antics may rank as low as being among the worst actions ever perpetrated on our liberal democratic Constitutional republic in the history of the nation. Dennis C. Rathsam can be barely right and massively wrong at the same time. Good start to the New Year? Dennis C. Rathsam’s New Year’s Resolution ought to be his personal pledge to begin exercising a little more intellectual rigor before he begins typing out his FlaglerLive comments.
Right now, in a perfect or bad world, Dennis C. Rathsam is a bad commenter, simply because he repeatedly presents as a person who is fooling himself. After all, to paraphrase Wittgenstein, one of the most difficult things in life is to not fool oneself. In a good/better/best, bad/worse/worst world, Dennis C. Rathsam may be a bad commenter, but there are far worse commenters out there.
Bill C says
For “cryin”, being a sore loser and grievance pounding, you beat HRC by a mile. “Bitch”? Go back to 1950 where you belong and where your life peaked.
Lee says
Dennis: your facts are a bit skewed. Yes, Clinton took the loss hard as did a lot of us who voted for her. After all, she got more votes than Trump. But, we knew the electoral college is how we elect our President and we accepted it. No trashing of the capitol and no insurrection. Trump and his cultists still can’t accept it and are still crying. That is the fact!
Deborah Coffey says
Um, Hillary gave a very gracious concession speech. She also received more than 3,000,000 votes than Trump. What Hillary DIDN’T DO is promote a Big Lie about a rigged election (in spite of all the proved Russian interference) and organize a violent insurrection on our Capitol to overturn her loss. Grow up and BE an American!
Snake says
Lmao wtf, of course he had to bring up Trump, he caused all of this. Everything stemmed from him, but the walls are finally closing in on you guys. He’s not above the law. His sore loser azz is why yall through a tantrum with false claims.. Cry about Clinton but don’t even condemn your people who, WITH PROOF, went to attack the Capitol. You wanna brush this under a rug to let them get away with breaking the law? You 3 percenter nut cases are something else. I love the internet though, keep spreading your meta data. We already got a majority of you.
Heathen Lady says
Trump IS a sore loser. Sounds like you are, too;
Steve says
Clinton still living in your head rent free cupcake. Get over it. You are living the Big Lie so take it like a real loser and cry a river, so predictable….
marlee says
Dennis
It sounds like you need a good dose of Xanax to calm you down.
After all my years, I am totally shocked at the gullibility of the people in this County.
It scares me to think how fast people fell into line and believed “The Dear Leader” and his Big Lie….despite the facts.
How could this happen in our Country? I always wondered how this could happen in other Countries.
I now understand .
Mark says
Tell us about Russia, Russia, Russia. That was an actual threat to democracy.
Snake says
Why change the subject? Let’s focus on this topic of justice at hand, or did you guys think you’re above the law?
A.j says
Hillary lost in 2016. Did she lie about the results, I don’t think so. Trump is a sore lying loser.
Jackson1955 says
Roughly a third of this country covets and roots for a strong arm, authoritarian leader. A dictator that will protect their economic and social interests that they believe they are in the process of losing. If we allow this group to basically take over our elections, we get the government we deserve. It’s up to the 65% of this country to keep democracy alive. The headline should read “Trump and 147 GOP tried a coup…” Do not let the members of congress, who tried to nullify our votes, fade into the background where they are continuing to conspire to undermine democracy. Trump has co-conspirators. Name names!
TrumpJr says
I want to know about our own “Sore Looser”, Joe Mullins has not said a peep in several months. I wonder if he is under investigation by the Department of Justice, the FBI and others for his actions leading up to and possible participation in the January 06 Insurrection? Maybe the fraud investigation involving his sports travel and ticketing “operation” is affecting his ability to speak?
Timothy Patrick Welch says
Wrong…
Democracy is not based on a compact. Like the Confederate states found out during the Civil war.
Democracy rests upon the principles of majority rule, and decentralize government. And as such the government is more responsive and accessible to the people. When election integrity is questioned the government has the authority and the responsibility to investigate.