Could Florida’s race for Governor come down to a November nail-biter that looks more like the close election in 2018 than the lopsided result in 2022?
That’s one potential interpretation to be drawn from the Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research survey released this week, which is the latest survey to show a potentially competitive General Election in a state national Democrats wrote off until recently.
Likely Republican nominee Byron Donalds, a third-term Congressman from Naples, is in a competitive heat against either of two potential Democratic picks, albeit in the context of an arguable oversample of Democrats.
Against former Congressman David Jolly, a one-time moderate Republican from St. Petersburg, Donalds leads 47% to 40%.
When matched up with Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, the hypothetical is even closer: 46% to 42% for the Democrat.
Donalds underperforms the 11 point GOP registration advantage in part because he is drawing less intraparty support than either potential opponent, but also in part because the sample is only GOP +8. Historically, Republicans have done a better job turning out their voters than Democrats.
The Democratic oversample explains some of that. But the poll suggests some Republicans might be less than enthusiastic about him. He’s in the mid-80s against either Demings or Jolly with Republicans, but either potential Democratic nominee has 90% support from his own side.
A majority of no party voters are undecided, which could advantage Democrats.
Donalds takes 20% against 14% for Jolly, and he earns 26% against 22% for Demings.
These results, derived from a sample of 838 likely voters polled between March 25 and April 13, are not an anomaly.
An Echelon Insights poll released earlier this month also showed races where both potential Democrats were similarly competitive with Donalds, whose endorsement by President Donald Trump has propelled him to front-runner status in the race for the GOP nomination.
Whichever Democrat prevails in August, he would face a resource disadvantage if Donalds earns the Republican nod.
Throughout the first quarter of 2026 and a short portion of April, Jolly’s campaign raised $2 million. Jolly has now raised $5 million total since he entered the race in June.
Demings raised about $254,000 during Q1, in addition to approximately $75,000 to his political committee Moving Florida Forward, campaign finance reports show.
Donalds has raised more than $67 million for his race, including more than $22 million in the first quarter. Other Republican candidates are reporting more modest totals.
While Demings has raised almost $660,000 total between his two accounts, he’s having to spend heavily as well, with roughly $310,000 in expenditures through March 31, giving him about $350,000 on hand.
Jolly is also spending aggressively, but has about $1 million in his campaign account and roughly $820,000 in his Florida 2026 political committee.
–A.G. Gancarski, Florida Politics
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