If AI Were Picking Palm Coast’s Next City Manager: Carl Geffken, Thomas Thomas, David Fraser, In That Order

FlaglerLive asked a consultant to have Google Gemini evaluate the six finalists for Palm Coast city manager based on the city’s recruitment brochure, their resumes, and their plans for Year One, which the city asked them to present in a short paper. The first prompt was based on just the resumes and the brochure. The second prompt asked Gemini to repeat the analysis while including the Year One papers. Gemini was also asked to evaluate the candidates’ use of artificial intelligence in those Year One plans. The results were based on three prompts.

The six finalists are David Fraser, Michael McGlothlin, Anthony Schembri, Thomas Thomas, Carl E. Geffken and Norm West. See their full Year One papers and self-made video interviews here.

After evaluating just the resumes, AI selected as the top choices, in that order, Carl Geffken, David Fraser, and Thomas Thomas. After incorporating the Year One papers, Thomas jumped ahead of Fraser.

That prompted the third prompt–a question about Thomas’s apparent use of AI influencing Gemini’s decision.

The full results are below. The Palm Coast City Council meets in workshop at 6 this evening. One of its agenda items is to narrow down the list from the current six candidates. The selected candidates will be invited to the city for interviews.

Below, everything but the prompts is AI.

–FlaglerLive

Prompt 1: Based on the criteria outlined in the 2025 Palm Coast City Manager Profile, here is a detailed evaluation of the six candidates, followed by a ranked recommendation.

Evaluation of Palm Coast’s Needs

 The City Manager profile emphasizes several key challenges and desired attributes for the ideal candidate:

• Growth and Infrastructure Management: The city requires a leader experienced in managing and financing large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly in water, wastewater, and stormwater utilities. Direct experience with wastewater consent decrees is highly valuable.
• Financial Acumen: The candidate must be fiscally prudent with a strong background in municipal finance, capital financing strategies, and budgeting for a high-growth community.
• Economic Development & Large-Scale Planning: The City Manager will be a key player in diversifying the economy and managing the 20,000+ acre “Western Expansion” project, requiring experience with smart growth, land use, and public-private negotiations.
• Governing Body Relations: With a newly seated Mayor and Council, the candidate must be adept at building consensus and helping the new body establish good governance processes.
• Leadership and Management: The ideal candidate is a pragmatic servant leader who can manage a large organization of approximately 650 employees, champion succession planning, and navigate Florida’s “Sunshine Act.”
• Education and Experience: A bachelor’s degree is required and a master’s is preferred, with at least eight years of progressive experience in municipal government.

Candidate Evaluations 

• Norman S. West: A retired U.S. Air Force Brigadier General with extensive executive experience managing exceptionally large federal healthcare budgets and organizations. While his leadership and logistics skills are impressive, he has no direct experience in municipal government, working with an elected council, or managing public utilities and land use.
• Michael S. McGlothlin: A municipal executive with recent, relevant Florida experience as a Town Administrator, familiar with the state’s legal environment and hurricane response. However, the scale of his experience is a significant concern, as he managed a budget that is a small fraction of Palm Coast’s.
• David Fraser: A highly experienced public administrator with 29 years in the field, including serving as City Manager four times. He has managed municipal operations at a relevant scale, overseeing all necessary departments, including utilities and economic development. He lacks direct work experience in Florida.
• Anthony J. Schembri: A long-tenured public servant who served as a County Administrator in Florida for an organization of comparable size and budget to Palm Coast. While his Florida experience is a major asset, his resume is heavily weighted toward a career in criminal justice and is light on details regarding his specific achievements in utility management, comprehensive planning, and economic development.
• Thomas Thomas: A city/county manager with 25 years of experience in all phases of government. He has a proven track record of handling difficult financial situations, developing comprehensive land use plans, and implementing Zero-Based Budgeting for significant savings. He has no direct Florida experience.
• Carl E. Geffken: A top-performing city and county executive with an exceptional background in finance and operations. His resume highlights steering a $120M wastewater treatment plant rehabilitation under a Federal consent decree, which directly aligns with a critical challenge facing Palm Coast. He has a demonstrated ability to achieve significant financial turnarounds but does not have professional experience in Florida.

Recommendation

 While several candidates are well-qualified, a clear ranking emerges based on the specific and most pressing challenges facing the City of Palm Coast.

1. Carl E. Geffken (Most Well-Suited)

Mr. Geffken is the top candidate. His resume is a near-perfect match for the critical needs identified in the city’s profile. His direct, hands-on experience managing a multi-hundred-million-dollar wastewater system overhaul under a Federal consent decree is a rare and invaluable asset that speaks directly to Palm Coast’s most significant infrastructure challenge. Furthermore, his proven ability to dramatically improve the financial health of the cities he has managed demonstrates the fiscal prudence and strategic leadership Palm Coast requires to fund its growth and maintain services.

2. J. David Fraser

Mr. Fraser is the second-best choice. His extensive and broad experience as a City Manager at the appropriate scale makes him highly qualified to lead all facets of Palm Coast’s municipal operations. He has a long history of successfully managing the very departments—from public works and utilities to economic development—that are central to the city’s future. His comprehensive background provides a strong foundation for success.

3. Thomas Thomas

Mr. Thomas is the third-best candidate. He has a long and varied career as a city manager with a demonstrated track record of success in the specific functional areas Palm Coast needs most: financial turnarounds, creating comprehensive land use plans, and managing economic development. His experience bringing the City of Compton into financial compliance shows he can handle complex and high-pressure situations effectively. While he lacks Florida experience, his deep expertise in core city management functions makes him a very strong contender.

Prompt 2 (After adding in the White Papers on Year 1): analyze the following “Year One White Papers” and apply them to your previous analysis. Please also note whether it seems that AI was used int he white paper documents.

 Here is an analysis of the “Year One White Papers” and their application to the previous candidate evaluation.

Updated Candidate Analysis with White Papers

The submitted “Year One Vision” papers provide significant insight into each candidate’s understanding of Palm Coast’s specific challenges, their proposed leadership style, and their immediate priorities.

• Carl E. Geffken: Geffken’s white paper is exceptionally strong and directly reinforces the strengths identified in his resume. He immediately addresses Palm Coast’s “defining challenge” of rapid growth and masterfully connects it to his own specific, highly relevant experience: successfully managing a federal wastewater consent decree and reducing project costs by $300 million¹. This isn’t a generic promise; it’s a direct, evidence-based plan of action. He also highlights his proven track record of dramatic financial turnarounds in Reading and Fort Smith, promising to apply the same fiscal discipline to Palm Coast². His plan to start with a “listening tour” and engage with staff in their own work environments shows a hands-on, collaborative approach that is crucial for a new leader working with a new council.

• David Fraser: Mr. Fraser’s white paper presents a solid, competent, and traditional city management approach focused on establishing “trust, operational excellence, and strategic alignment”⁴. His plan is logical and covers all the essential bases: organizational alignment, fiscal stewardship, responsible growth management, and community engagement. The vision is professional and well-rounded, reflecting his extensive experience. However, it lacks the specific, hard-hitting examples of problem-solving that Mr. Geffken provides. While competent, the paper does not stand out as uniquely tailored to Palm Coast’s most critical and technical challenges, such as the wastewater consent decree.
• Thomas Thomas: Thomas’s paper demonstrates that he has done his homework on Palm Coast. He cites specific, current data points, including population growth projections, infrastructure funding amounts, and utility cost pressures, and explicitly aligns his goals with the city’s existing Strategic Action Plan and Imagine 2050 plan⁶. This data-driven approach is a significant strength. His priorities are clear and measurable, such as targeting a “20% reduction in flooding complaints within six months”⁷⁷. This specificity is commendable and shows a focus on tangible results.
• Anthony J. Schembri: Schembri’s white paper has the most unique voice, focusing heavily on his core strength of “organizational development”⁸. He identifies a critical gap in employee training and proposes designing a curriculum tailored to the city’s needs⁹⁹⁹⁹. His ideas for an “Office of Continuing Improvement” and a “Skills Inventory” are innovative. However, his vision feels more abstract and internally focused compared to the city’s immediate, concrete infrastructure and financial needs. While improving the organization is a worthy long-term goal, the paper is light on specific plans for tackling the wastewater system, managing the “Western Expansion,” or navigating complex capital financing.

• Norman S. West: West’s paper attempts to bridge the gap between his military background and municipal management. He effectively translates military values like discipline and perspective into a vision for an “infrastructure-first” growth strategy and a government that “listens before it acts”. His focus on essentials like public safety, drainage, and road maintenance is practical. The paper shows a thoughtful understanding of resident concerns. However, it lacks the detailed, technical understanding of municipal finance, utility operations, and land use regulation that other candidates demonstrate from direct experience.
• Michael S. McGlothlin: McGlothlin presents a very structured, three-phased plan for his first year, starting with listening and relationship building and moving toward strategic implementation. The plan is logical and covers key areas like organizational review and budget analysis. However, the vision is presented in very general terms and does not convey a deep understanding of the scale or complexity of Palm Coast’s specific issues. It reads more like a textbook approach to new manager orientation rather than a strategic vision tailored to a $421.5 million organization facing major capital challenges.

Analysis of Potential AI Usage in White Papers

Assessing for AI use involves looking for patterns in structure, tone, and language.

• High Probability of AI Assistance: The papers from Thomas Thomas and Michael S. McGlothlin show strong signs of AI assistance. Mr. Thomas’s document is dense with specific data points that can be easily compiled by an AI scraping public documents, and its structure perfectly mirrors the city’s strategic plan. Mr. McGlothlin’s rigid “Phase I, II, III” structure and use of generic administrative language (“holistic, multi-phased strategy”) are common outputs of AI models.

• Low Probability of AI Assistance: The paper from Anthony J. Schembri is the least likely to have been AI-generated. Its distinct personal voice, unique phrasing (“wedding cake structure,” “idea factory”), and use of a personal anecdote (the NASA pen vs. the Russian pencil) are hallmarks of human writing.
• Moderate/Indeterminate: The papers from Carl E. Geffken, David Fraser, and Norman S. West fall in the middle. Mr. Geffken’s paper feels authentic due to the seamless integration of specific career achievements, which is difficult for an AI to do well. Mr. Fraser’s paper uses standard, professional language common to his field, making it difficult to distinguish from a well-prompted AI. Mr. West’s paper has some personal touches but is also very polished and structured.

Final Recommendation:

The white papers have clarified the candidates’ strengths and solidified the ranking.

1. Carl E. Geffken (Most Well-Suited)

Mr. Geffken remains the top candidate, and his white paper widens his lead. He not only possesses the most directly relevant technical experience for Palm Coast’s biggest challenge (the wastewater consent decree) but also articulates a clear, confident, and evidence-based plan to tackle it16. His vision combines high-level financial strategy with a hands-on, empathetic approach to engaging staff and residents. He presents the most compelling case as a leader who can step in and immediately manage the city’s most complex issues.

2. Thomas Thomas

Mr. Thomas moves up to the second position based on his white paper. While Mr. Fraser presented a competent plan, Mr. Thomas’s vision is superior because of its specificity and data-driven foundation. He demonstrates a deep understanding of Palm Coast’s current strategic plans and operational metrics. His commitment to measurable outcomes and his clear alignment with the council’s existing goals suggest he could integrate quickly and effectively, providing the data-driven accountability the city needs.

3. J. David Fraser

Mr. Fraser is the third-best candidate. His extensive experience is undeniable, and his white paper outlines a fundamentally sound and professional approach to city management. He would be a safe and reliable choice. However, in a competition against Mr. Geffken’s highly specialized expertise and Mr. Thomas’s detailed, data-informed plan, his more generalized vision is less impactful for Palm Coast’s specific, immediate needs.

Prompt 3 … A “hey, wait a minute now moment”…. Does the fact that Thomas’ Year one is highly probably written with AI assistance factor into your final rankings?

Based on a comprehensive review of the candidates’ resumes and their “Year One Vision” papers, the top-ranked candidate is Carl E. Geffken, followed by Thomas Thomas and J. David Fraser.

Candidate Ranking and Rationale

1. Carl E. Geffken

Mr. Geffken is the most well-suited candidate to lead the City of Palm Coast. His background and vision align almost perfectly with the city’s most critical and immediate needs.

• Rationale: His resume stands out for one key reason: direct, hands-on experience steering a $120 million rehabilitation of a wastewater treatment plant under a Federal consent decree. This is not a general skill but a specific, high-stakes accomplishment that directly mirrors one of Palm Coast’s most significant upcoming challenges. His proven ability to dramatically improve municipal finances—taking one city from a $15 million deficit to a surplus and increasing another’s fund balance from $7 million to $45 million—demonstrates the exact fiscal discipline Palm Coast needs to manage its rapid growth.
• “Year One Vision” Analysis: His white paper was the most compelling because it was authentic and evidence-based. He masterfully wove his specific career achievements into his vision, creating a credible and powerful narrative. His plan to start with a “listening tour” before implementing strategic action shows a mature leadership style focused on understanding the organization before making changes.
• Note on AI Assistance: His paper felt the most authentic and least likely to have been heavily AI-assisted. The seamless way he integrated personal career highlights into his strategic vision is a hallmark of genuine authorship and adds significant weight to his credibility.

2. Thomas Thomas

Mr. Thomas is a very strong second choice, presenting a detailed and well-researched plan that demonstrates his capability as an experienced city manager.

• Rationale: Mr. Thomas has a proven track record of handling difficult financial situations, most notably bringing the City of Compton into compliance after it was identified as the most financially at-risk city in California. His 25 years of experience include expertise in budget development, economic development, and land use planning—all critical areas for Palm Coast.
• “Year One Vision” Analysis: His white paper was excellent in its content and specificity. He cited current Palm Coast data points and aligned his priorities directly with the city’s existing Strategic Action Plan and Imagine 2050 plan. His focus on measurable outcomes, such as a 20% reduction in flooding complaints, shows a commitment to tangible results.
• Note on AI Assistance: The paper showed a high probability of AI assistance. Its structure, tone, and dense compilation of public data are characteristic of a well-prompted AI. While this demonstrates resourcefulness in gathering and organizing information, it makes his personal strategic insight slightly less clear than Mr. Geffken’s.

3. J. David Fraser

Mr. Fraser is a highly qualified and experienced candidate who would be a reliable and competent leader for the city.

• Rationale: With 29 years of management experience, including four stints as a City Manager, Mr. Fraser is undeniably qualified to run an organization of Palm Coast’s size. His resume shows he has managed budgets up to $1 billion and supervised large teams, giving him the necessary scale of experience.
• “Year One Vision” Analysis: His white paper outlined a solid, professional, and fundamentally sound approach to city management. He focused on core principles like organizational alignment, fiscal stewardship, and community engagement. While his plan was logical and comprehensive, it was more generalized than those of the top two candidates and lacked the specific, tailored insights that directly addressed Palm Coast’s most unique challenges.
• Note on AI Assistance: It is difficult to determine the extent of AI use in his paper. It was written in standard, professional language common to the field, which could be the product of a seasoned executive’s own writing or a well-crafted AI prompt. It did not have the distinct authenticity of Geffken’s or the data-heavy structure of Thomas’s.