As in Florida and the rest of the nation, Flagler County is seeing a surge of early voting and voting by mail in one of the most unusual–and unpredictable–election in memory. But Flagler would have to experience an even more unusually heavy turnout in the remaining days of the election, especially on Election Day, if the turnout records of the 2000s are to be broken.
As of midday today, 51,601 ballots have been cast in early voting and by mail, or nearly 90 percent of the number of ballots cast in the 2016 election–a threshold that will certainly be crossed by the end of the day. With two days of early voting left, and over 3,000 votes cast each day on average during the early voting period, it is entirely possible that as many ballots will have been cast by Saturday as in the entire 2016 election.
In 2016, 58,331 ballots were cast in Flagler, out of 79,349 registered voters, an overall turnout of 73.51 percent.
Since 2016, the county has added 12,600 registered voters. In actual turnout so far, Flagler’s rate is at 55 percent, or within 16,000 votes of matching the turnout of 2016. Flagler exceeds turnout in Florida by 4 percent. In the region, it’s also beating turnouts in Volusia (47.7 percent), Putnam (41.6), Orange (48.3), Osceola (48.5) and Duval (47.7). But St. Johns is well ahead at 60 percent.
Early voting and voting by mail has been breaking records across Florida, where, as of midday today, 7.4 million Floridians had cast a ballot, or 81 percent of the voter total of 2016. Turnout so far in Florida is at 51 percent.
Some factors or caveats to keep in mind: First, considering the addition of 12,600 voters to Flagler’s rolls since the last presidential election, for turnout this year to exceed that of 2016, at least 67,700 ballots must be cast. Flagler is 76 percent of the way there as of noon today. (See registration numbers here.)
Second, the supervisor’s office will continue to accept mail ballots, by mail and in person, until 7 p.m. on Election Day. So the total between mail and early voting ballots will almost certainly exceed 60,000, surpassing the net total of the 2016 vote and resulting in what’s likely to be in the range of 65 percent overall turnout, give or take a few points, not counting in person voting on Election Day.
Third, and that’s the wild card of this election, in 2016, a year that knew no covid and when neither parties were making a push for or against voting by mail, for or against voting in person, just 19 percent of the electorate in Flagler (15,1000 voters) cast a ballot in person on Election Day, the lowest proportionate total in the county’s history for a general election. With the very heavy voting by mail and the high proportion of early voting, it may be a challenge for voting on Election day to match the proportion of 2016.
But if it did, that would yield an Election day tally of an additional of 17,480 ballots, and a total overall vote of 77,480 ballots, or a turnout of 84 percent. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely?
Put it this way: while Flagler has had a tradition of high turnout, particularly in the previous decade, it would still have to break a new record to reach 84 percent. Flagler beat Florida’s turnout by several points in 2000 (Bush-Gore), 2004 (Bush-Kerry) and 2008 (Obama-McCain) with turnout of 81, 82 and 82 percent in those elections. But turnout fell to 73 percent in 2012. And for all the claims that Trump brought out voters in 2016, Flagler’s turnout remained at 73 percent that year, and Florida’s matched that of 2008. (Florida’s post-war turnout record is 79 percent in the 1968 election, Nixon-Humphrey, which remains the all-time national record, since women and Blacks were no longer barred from polls.)
What the numbers indicate so far in this election is that Flagler will very likely exceed its 2016 turnout. But whether it will match or exceed its turnout from record-setting elections in the previous decade remains open to question.
Analyzing Flagler’s numbers more closely, a few facts stand out: early voting in this election started a bit slower than in 2016 but has since nearly caught up, with now almost identical numbers. After 10 full days of early voting at three locations, the county tallied 21,870 ballots, an average of 2,187 per day, with a Saturday and Sunday in that cycle. In 2016, the first 10 days of early voting totaled 22,869 votes, an average of 2,287–or 100 a day more. There were 13 days of early voting in 2016, as there are this year: early voting ends at 6 p.m. Saturday, but mail balloting continues.
As expected, and mirroring trends in the state and the nation, mail ballots have skewed Democratic in Flagler: Registered Democrats have cast 54.8 percent of all mail ballots received as of this afternoon, while 36.6 percent of Republicans have used mail ballots, a reversal from previous elections, when Republicans were much more likely to go the mail ballot route. This year is different as Donald Trump made repeated and grossly false claims about the unreliability of mail ballots while state officials, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, have–with limited success–attempted to scuttle the ease of dropping mail ballots in drop boxes. The Flagler County government administration played a small role in that scuttling when it decided to hold a major construction project around the supervisor of elections’ office at the same time as the weeks of voting, and refused to suspend construction during early voting.
If Flagler Democrats built a small lead in ballots cast until the day early voting started, Republicans quickly overtook it as early voting got under way. They now hold an overall 46-34 percent advantage over Democrats, with independents and minor parties accounting for 20 percent of the ballots cast. Both Republicans and Democrats are outperforming their proportion of the electorate so far, signaling considerable voter enthusiasm among both. In other words, while Republicans account for 43.6 percent of total registered voters in the county, they account for 46 percent of ballots cast. Democrats account for 30.6 percent of registered voters but 34 percent of ballots cast. It’s independents and minor party voters, who account for 25.8 percent of the electorate, who are unenthused, since they have cast just 20 percent of ballots. That may be fine with candidates of the two parties, who are banking on their bases to win or stay in office.
An important note about your mail ballot, if you have it and decide to vote in person either early or on Election Day: If you have the mail ballot, bring it with you to the polls. Poll workers will cancel it and direct you to cast a regular ballot. If you do not have the mail ballot, they will check if the elections office has received it before allowing you to vote. If they cannot confirm if you returned the mail ballot, but you have not already voted, you can still cast a provisional ballot.
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Concerned Citizen says
Sadly our votes won’t matter this election.
Most races have already had their winners decided. In Palm Coast Holland will win re-election. Because she is backed by builders and special interests along with a lot of their money. Money which was used to keep opponents quiet.
On the national level I predict that Biden will win the popular vote. But it won’t matter as our antiquated electoral college will elect Trump again for another 4 years. So all this divisness that has been happening won’t matter one bit.
I’ll just be glad when it’s all over.
LetThemEatCake says
The only way Trump wins is if he and his radical Supreme Court steal the election. States have rules. These rules have existed for years. People have voted by mail since the Civil War. States have ALWAYS counted ballots days after the election. Trump is making up lies about the process. What are they afraid of, a landslide victory for Biden? By stopping the vote count before all votes are counted not only disenfranchise Democrats but Republicans too. Just watch, if after polls close it shows a blue tsunami, Trump and his supporters will change their tune about counting every ballot. If it shows Trump in the lead, he will want to SLOW THE VOTING DOWN, PLEASE until the Supreme Court can ILLEGALLY rule against the election standards established in each state and stop the counting. It won’t end there though. There will be lawsuit after lawsuit after lawsuit because it is unconstitutional to disenfranchise voters and throw away ballots. We are a Republic. The people vote and decide, not a radical court that is to the right of the Pope!
I think many people are waiting until this weekend or election day to vote. I’ve had my ballot for 3 weeks and I just turned it in today. At the end of the day though, doesn’t matter what happens in FL. Biden will win all the “normal” states he would’ve won anyway plus NC, AZ, TX, GA, PA, MI, WI, MN, the 1 electoral vote in the Nebraska district, and IA. There are “shy” Biden voters, especially in typically “red” states. They fear the psycho Trump people that randomly punch people in the face or wave a gun because that’s all they know how to do. They can’t have a debate. They can’t even tell me why they really support him or what he’s done for them that doesn’t involve some racist, xenophobic, homophobic, or sexist epitaph. My Republican party isn’t this way. It’s the party of Lincoln. A party of equality. A party of fiscal conservatism. It’s not a part that hates like this. If it has to be destroyed to come back as it was before then so be it.
Concerned Citizen says
Trump will win because of the electoral college.
Al Gore won the popular vote and still lost to Bush because of the Electoral College. Clinton won the popular vote but lost to Obama because of the Electoral College.
The popular vote doesn’t much matter anymore. At least until we revise a new system of voting.
Proud American says
I can debate.
I can tell you why I am voting for Trump.
1- o’care. While 44 was in office each year although I got raises or at least cola increases my income went down each year, why? Because my bi weekly medical ins costs through an employer skyrocketed. Not only that all of a sudden my deductible increased, copays went way up. Yet if I went to urgent cate, while I had to pay $200 out of my pocket even though i had insurance. Yet other people would come in and theirs was only $20 or free. Finally in 2019 thanks to the trump tax cuts my income went up.
2-Biden has been in office longer than i have been alive. His “accomplishments” have been devastating to the American people yet his crackhead son is a multi millionaire? Earning more monthly than most American families do in a year or two, all on “board” positions. Tell me how is it that all of a sudden he knows how to “fix” things?
He can barely speak coherently with a TelePrompTer.
3-If the Democrats had not been hell bent on sabotaging Trumps presidency since it began for the entire 4 years, imagine the great thing that they could have accomplished for America and the American people? The list of accomplishments he did achieve is longer than Pelosi, Biden, Schumer etc…who have spent their lives telling people they know what’s better for me, says the woman with a refrigerator that costs more than most Americans cars, stocked with gourmet ice cream.
4-Trump ran to be our president. Not for Europe, not for the world. He promised to make things fair. America is not the piggy bank for the entire planet. Yes we are a generous country but we alone can’t do it all. Each country needs to do their fair share with what is in their means.
5- Our country is only as good as its borders. If you don’t know what is coming in, you have a major security issue. My family came here legally, waited their turn, one parent came first got a job, a home, and then the other parent And children came. It’s not fair for those that want to come and do things legally to get cut in line. Try getting into Canada, Germany, Iran, China, or anywhere else illegally….see what happens…
I can go on And on.
When all of the media, the celebrities, blue check marks, are what you are drinking, realize that you are programmed.
I guarantee outside of covid, every American was doing better then they were 4 or eight years ago.
And before you cry, BUT COVid… BUt COViD,
The Sooner you realize, it’s a virus, there are no cures. They still don’t have a cure for the common cold, flu, etc…
You better start to learn to live your life with it.
Trump and his administration mobilized this country and I guarantee did the best that could have been done. The high death rates are in areas where positive nursing home patients were sent back to the nursing homes. 96% of those who died had at least 2 coexisting co-morbidity.
Is it a real virus? Yes most definitely. If you get it you can get real sick, or you maybe asymptomatic, but most likely you will get better, 99% chance of it.
Is it fair that people lost moments in their lives that they will never get back? Senior prom, kindergarten graduation, child birth, funeral, etc…?….
I vote for freedom to decide what is best for me and my family.
Freedom of big government that isn’t jabbing bad choice after bad choice down my throat.
KAG
Gary R says
WOW! Great comment Proud American and spot on. But, you will never convince the Trump hating cult.
Heathenlady says
It is foolhardy to predict the outcome of elections, especially this one.