The 2016 election is 1,239 days away. But the first innumerable and returns, as irrelevant to the final result as they will be alluring in the run-up to it, are in: Jeb Bush would beat Joe Biden in Florida, by a close margin. Marco Rubio would beat Biden by an even closer margin. But Hillary Clinton would beat both Rubio or Bush quite easily: 50 to 43 percent against Bush, 53 to 41 percent against Rubio.
The numbers, from the latest Quinnipiac University poll, may have little bearing on the actual election in 2016. None of these potential candidates have announced for 2016. But the numbers point to surprising and stark vulnerabilities for the Republican Party’s two leading lights, in their home state. That may affect the potential candidates’ strategy and positioning in months ahead as they decide whether, and how, to run.
Clinton’s strength is especially telling among Independents, women and Hispanics, without whom no candidate can hope to win Florida. Clinton carries 58 percent of Hispanics even against Rubio, who is of Cuban descent and taken to be the Republican Party’s Great Latino Hope, for a party that will not win elections in the future without reducing the large advantage Democrats enjoy among Hispanic voters. (Hispanics make up 16 percent of the electorate and are the nation’s fastest-growing minority. They backed Barack Obama against Mitt Romney by a 71 to 27 percent margin in 2012.)
“As perhaps the best-known Hispanic-American in national politics Sen. Marco Rubio has a tightrope to walk between keeping the folks back home happy and serving as a high-profile symbol for the GOP nationally,” Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown said.
The poll also found that Floridians are unhappy with Rubio over his position on immigration and guns. Rubio has been difficult to pin down on the compromise that would grant undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States a path to citizenship. Forty-one percent of respondents gave him a disapproving vote for that, compared to 33 percent approving. He also voted against universal background checks for gun buyers, which would have included background checks for firearms bought at gun shows or online. He drew a 49-10 percent disapproval from Floridians on that score.
Floridians overall back universal background checks by 73 percent (that includes support from 63 percent of households with guns), and strongly back a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, with 58 percent in favor—including 54 percent of white voters, 66 percent of black voters and 69 percent of Hispanic voters.
Against Bush, whose wife is Hispanic, Clinton carries 87 percent of the Hispanic vote and 48 percent of Independents (to Bush’s 42 percent). Trend-wise, Clinton actually gained a point against Rubio in Florida since March, but lost a point against Bush. The Benghazi hearings designed in part to dim Clinton’s appeal—she was secretary of state when terrorists attacked and killed four Americans, including the ambassador, in their Benghazi compound in 2012)—appear to have missed their mark in Florida.
But Vice President Joe Biden is clearly a weak candidate for Democrats in Florida. Biden has said he would run only if Obama’s second term record is strong enough to power his candidacy. So far, that’s not the case.
In other findings, Florida voters support the state’s “stand your ground” law 57 – 36 percent, virtually unchanged in 12 months of Quinnipiac polling. Voters also support 49 – 40 percent increasing the number of people enrolled in Medicaid, as part of the federal health care overhaul, but that’s too late: while Gov. Rick Scott changed course and became a supporter of such an overhaul, the Florida House and Senate rebuffed him. The Florida Legislature’s approval rating is at 32 percent, with 49 percent disapproving.
In terms of job approval, Obama gets a split 47 – 48 rating, reflecting his national standing, compared to a 50 – 45 percent approval rating in March. Rubio has a 51-35 percent job-approval, up from 48-33 in March. Sen. Bill nelson, the only Florida Democrat in a national seat, has a 51-29 approval rating.
On Monday, Quinnipiac released results of a poll focused on Gov. Rick Scott. The polls were conducted between June 11 and 19, surveying 1,176 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
r&r says
Another possible eight years of liberals is scarry..
Lt Dan says
“What difference does it make now”…………Yea, she’s a real good choice for America. NOT
Karma says
It is only a matter of time before Rubio will have a Charlie Christ change. He may be challenging Hillary in the primary as Democrat. He is losing his base fast with this immigration bill. When more people learn how bad this bill is, they will defect in droves. He talks from both sides of his month. At least Hillary is not afraid to stand up for her lies.
Magnolia says
Marco Rubio is done in Florida because of his support for the immigration bill without the border being secure first.
Think we should pass a law that no more Kennedy’s, Clinton’s or Bush’s may run for President. They’ve all done enough damage.
The Truth says
The only thing worse is another 8 years with a Republican led Congress…
Honesty and Integrity are not in the Democrats vocabulary says
Democrats wouldn’t know competence and integrity if it bit them on the back side!!! Here is what Hillary is ALL ABOUT!! I mean why not, she’s married to a guy that was impeached, and is the biggest womanizer this side of China. I thank god for the REPUBLICAN MAJORITY he served under!!!
Jerry Zeifman, a lifelong Democrat, supervised the work of 27-year-old Hillary Rodham on the committee. Hillary got a job working on the investigation at the behest of her former law professor, Burke Marshall, who was also Sen. Ted Kennedy’s chief counsel in the Chappaquiddick affair. When the investigation was over, Zeifman fired Hillary from the committee staff and refused to give her a letter of recommendation – one of only three people who earned that dubious distinction in Zeifman’s 17-year career.
Why?
“Because she was a liar,” Zeifman said in an interview last week. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”
Seminole Pride says
There should be a law that you have to be a resident of Florida for at least 10 years before you can run for a public office.
briggid says
Why does the national (or state) Democratic Party insist on pushing this incessantly *already*? We haven’t even had the flippin’ mid-term elections yet! And then, there is something after that called “the primaries”.
If we’re three years away, and Dems already seem to be conceding that they can’t do better than Hillary Clinton, someone from another party is going to fill the void. And we cannot afford any more corporate Republicans, any more than we could afford a corporate Democrat. So maybe it would be far healthier for all of us to stop listening to the “the only viable candidates are Republicans or Democrats” and “if you vote a different party than either of them, you’re throwing your vote away” nonsense we seem to be fed more and more from typical media these days. One can hear that from “both sides” of the media spectrum–it’s hardly one-sided anymore.
We have got to demand better, and we’d better get on the stick pretty soon. This process starts with each and every one of us, not some reporter or television station or “party leadership” or “polls”. Especially polls!
Johnny Taxpayer says
You are aware that Republican’s haven’t “led” congress since January 3rd, 2007, right?
Magnolia says
There needs to be a law against constant campaigning. Politics in itself is becoming the fastest growing industry in this country with candidates raking in millions while people are homeless and still trying to find jobs.
ENOUGH already!
Why don’t we draft people to go to Washington for 2 years, eliminate the campaigns altogether, no gifts or money allowed or you go to prison and you only serve for 2 years. No more of those harassing, constant phone calls. It would put the lobbying industry and special interests out of business and we’d get back to the needs of the people.
Karma says
It is only a matter of time before Rubio will have a Charlie Christ change. He may be challenging Hillary in the primary as Democrat. He is losing his base fast with this immigration bill. When more people learn how bad this bill is, they will defect in droves. He talks from both sides of his month.
there are three sides to every story says
Are we supposed to take any poll seriously this early?
Magnolia says
I wish there was a law prohibiting anyone from running for office more than six months out from the election. I don’t care who it is running, we need a break. All they do is run for reelection while things out here get worse and worse.
Sherry Epley says
I would certainly support Hillary Clinton for President. . . she would be excellent, and would have input from her husband. . . what a great combination!