By Paul Shafer and Katherine Gutierrez
The discontinuation of the Biden administration’s monthly payments of the child tax credit could leave millions of American families without enough food on the table, according to our new study in JAMA Network Open. The first missed payment on Jan. 15, 2022, left families that had come to rely on them wondering how they would make ends meet, according to many news reports.
The American Rescue Plan Act, a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package passed in March 2021, made significant changes to the existing child tax credit. It increased the size of the credit by 50% or more, depending on a child’s age, to either $3,000 or $3,600 per year. It also made more low-income families eligible and paid half of this money out as a monthly “advance” payment.
Biden’s Build Back Better plan calls for a second year of an expanded child tax credit disbursed monthly. But that package of measures stalled in the Senate after passing the House in November 2021. As a result, the monthly advance payments of the child tax credit that American families with children had been receiving since July 2021 were left hanging in the balance.
Nearly 60 million families with children received the first payment, which was sent out in July 2021. The payments were widely credited with bringing about huge declines in poverty and malnutrition. Our study found that the introduction of these advance payments was associated with a 26% drop in the share of American households with children without enough food.
We used nationally representative data from over 585,000 responses to the Census Household Pulse Survey from January through August 2021 to assess how the introduction of the child tax credit advance payments affected food insufficiency in the weeks following the first payment on July 15, 2021. Food insufficiency is a measure of whether a household has enough food to eat. It is a much narrower measure than food insecurity, which is a more comprehensive measure based on 18 questions used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Importantly, we were able to separate the effect of these payments from other types of support, like the use of food pantries, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, unemployment benefits and COVID-19 stimulus payments.
Why it matters
Food insufficiency spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among families with children: It rose from 3% among all households in December 2019 to 18% in December 2020. Even after many, if not most, U.S. families received pandemic stimulus checks and other benefits, food insufficiency still hovered around 14% in June 2021. But following the first advance payment, from July 23 to August 2, 2021, food insufficiency among households with children fell drastically, to 10%.
This support is ending just as the omicron variant of COVID-19 is leaving many families without work, child care and, in many places, child care via in-person instruction at school.
All these factors are leading to lower income and, where school is virtual once again, creating the need for more meals at home. Other analyses of the Census Household Pulse Survey have found that most families were using the child tax credit advance payments for food and other necessities, such as housing and utilities.
What’s next
We are going to look further into how the advance payments affected low-income families through the rest of 2021, analyzing which groups of Americans saw the most benefit and what happened once the advance payments expired in 2022.
The full impact of the expansion of the child tax credit for the 2021 tax year has not yet been seen either. Eligible families will get the rest of that money, equal to all six monthly payments combined, when they file their 2021 tax returns this year.
Paul Shafer is Assistant Professor of Health Law, Policy and Management at Boston University. Katherine Gutierrez is a doctoral candidate in Economics at the University of New Mexico.
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Lorraine says
Food insufficiency has hit Senior Citizens and disabled 90% daily! Other sectors of society do struggle daily for food and other resources also. Senior Citizens and disabled need the help and are not getting it!! The government is not concerned with that glaring issue!! Social Security got 5.9% increase while inflation is at 7%. And further Medicare increased leaving most Seniors and disabled with $10.00 a month more a month. At least young people with children can try to find work. 70 plus years old most of the time find it a chore to even walk to the mail box!! But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be able to eat or pay bills!! Our Governor needs to step up to helping Seniors and the disabled!! Since most of the elderly live in Florida!!
Dennis says
Nobody cares about the old. You should know that by now. The feds, not the state needs to help! Biden has got money to burn.
Dennis says
Raise and support your own children, the American way forever! We sacrificed so our children could have what they needed. We did NOT breed more than we could support. The democrats are teaching the children that the government will support you, thus socialism. That is the democratic parties way and the news media is solid leaning Democratic Party. The democrats will bankrupt America if they have a chance. Abortion and socialism is the democratic parties agenda.
Thank Goodness says
Looks like another way to raise taxes-how would we ever live without the federal governments hands in everything? These polls are asking people if they’ve benefitted from receiving money in the mailbox. Are we expecting honesty from these polls? Lets make people dependent on receiving money in the email instead of them getting better jobs or working 2-3 jobs. Hard work should be nothing new to America as a young country. My grandfather worked 2-3 jobs to provide a very nice lifestyle for my father and uncles and grandmother. He NEVER complained about it as it was his job to now provide for the family and provide access to colleges and education for all his children. My father did the same for myself and siblings and mother-and i have provided the same for my family. Now if you look, you see constant cries and whining about “balance” between work and personal life…goodbye work ethics
wow says
Get the Every-Sperm-Is-Sacred group on it. Surely they’ll want to “protect the children” and support food programs.
Jimbo99 says
Unaffordable healthcare, unaffordable housing, unaffordable food, clothing & bills, unaffordabe seems to be the theme of Biden inflation. Shouldn’t be having children if everything in life is that unaffordable ? And when it gets to the point of being unsustainable, that becomes child neglect & abuse. These parents become criminals that day. The same Government that was encouraging the whole process, now has DCF and anything else to criminalize the parents.
Timothy Patrick Welch says
America has the wealthiest and most overweight “poor” people in the world.
Federal programs lack access to the local vibe. As far as who really needs public support. Often government benefits to the needy just enable poor choices, like fornication, drugs, and deviate lifestyles.
American food programs are just a means to support struggling farmers.
Sherry says
Always amazed (and not in a good way) by the complete bigoted hypocrisy of those who “INSIST” that each and every fetus be born, while often passionately disparaging those who end up in a generational cycle of financial despair partly because of the financial burden caused by children they cannot afford.
Geez! Fat people are not wealthy people! Poor people often have bad eating habits because unhealthy food is the least expensive.
Let’s see, so far, what I’ve gleaned from these comments is a list of who FOX says should be “HATED” today:
1. Poor People. . . who are often people of color. . . and criminals, right?
2. Fat People . . . who are often poor people . . . and criminals, right?
3. People Who Have Sex. . . because acceptable “Christian” white people don’t?
4. Drug Abusers. . . because those who are addicted wanted to be, and are only “low lifers” to begin with, right?
Did I miss anything from the “usual suspects” of the FOX/trump fear and hate club?