President Barack Obama’s fortunes are improving in three battleground states, including Florida, with three months to go in the presidential campaign, according to the latest Quinnipiac-CBS-New York Times polls.
For the first time in the election cycle, Obama struck or exceeded the 50 percent favorability mark over Mitt Romney in all three states. In Florida, he was ahead 51-45 percent, a big improvement over a 46-42 lead in June. In Ohio, Obama is ahead 50-44 percent, compared to a 47-38 percent lead in June. And in Pennsylvania, Obama is ahead 53-42 percent.
Since the 1960s, no incumbent or candidate has won the presidency without winning at least two of those three battleground states. Given the leanings of voters in other states, it is unlikely that Romney can win the presidency if he loses Ohio and Pennsylvania, even if he manages to win Florida. There is a chance that Romney will pick Ohio Sen. Rob Portman or former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, which could swing either state Romney’s way, and with it the election’s momentum.
“If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case.”
The unemployment rate in Florida has been dropping, but about 70 percent of the decrease is due to people dropping out of the employment rolls altogether, from being discouraged or because the state has made it difficult to qualify for unemployment. The rolls are not decreasing because of robust job creation.
But Florida’s Hispanic voters as well as women overall are proving to be a significant strength behind Obama’s numbers, as is the perception that he is doing more for the economy than Romney would.
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“All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy,” Brown said. “The president’s strength among women is the dominant dynamic fueling his lead. It is this dynamic that argues for Romney to pick a female running mate. On the other hand, the president’s lead in Ohio and Florida also argues for the selection by Romney of Sen. Rob Portman or Sen. Marco Rubio since he can’t win the White House without the Buckeye and Sunshine states and presumably these home state senators would be the most helpful.”
The prospect of a Rubio vice presidency had been dimming recently, however.
As always, the numbers remain fluid, but not by much: Among voters who pick Romney, only 10 percent each in Florida and Ohio and 9 percent in Pennsylvania say they might change their mind, a relatively low number for this point in the race. Among Obama supporters, 11 percent in Florida, 13 percent in Ohio and 15 percent in Pennsylvania say they might change their mind.
Looking at Florida’s numbers more closely, Obama has a 50-46 percent lead among men, also a significant improvement. Both candidates run strong among their own party’s voters while independent voters split with 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney, a notable decrease in Obama’s previous lead among independents.
Among likely voters backing Obama, 65 percent strongly favor him while 24 percent like him with reservations and 10 percent say they pick Obama out of dislike for Romney.
The economy is the most important issue in the election for 52 percent of Florida voters, with 22 percent who pick health care and 9 percent who cite the budget deficit. Romney would do a better job on the economy, 47 percent of Florida likely voters say, while 45 percent pick Obama. Obama is better on health care, voters say 50 – 42 percent. And 38 percent of Florida voters say that if Obama is reelected, his economic policies will hurt rather than help their financial situation.
In Florida’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Republican challenger 47 – 40 percent. Independent voters go 43 percent for Mack and 40 percent for Nelson. Florida voters disapprove 52 – 36 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.
“One of the few positives for Romney in Florida is that voters are split on whether his election would help or hurt their pocketbook, but by 38 – 23 percent they say the president’s re- election would leave their wallets thinner,’ Brown said.
Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times, surveyed likely voters from July 24 – 30. In Florida, 1,177 Florida likely voters were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent; 1,193 Ohio likely voters were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; and 1,168 Pennsylvania likely voters were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
Clint says
“according to the latest Quinnipiac-CBS-New York Times polls. “……Yea OK, I really believe these commie, leftwing, liberal polls !
question says
Uh Oh…. this is going to release the GOP Kracken !
People beginning to notice huge similarity to empty suit, embarrassing… “Dubya””…
especially contrasted via UK “Mitt the Twit”
vs.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/07/24/world/24205664.JPG
photo: Candidate Obama in Berlin
Karma says
When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.
Benjamin Franklin
The honest one says says
Do you really believe what the BIAS New York times has to report. Give me a break voters get off Romney’s tax returns, can we get all of Barry Soreto’s (OBAMA’s) legal birth certificate, legal tax returns, college test scores and the rest of the materials he refuses to produce. People don’t you realize what he has done with his executive orders and refusing to fire Eric Holder along with all of his thieving czars. DO YOUR HOMEWORK VOTERS? IF HE GETS IN OUR COUNTRY IS FINISHED AND HE WILL MAKE SURE EACH AND EVERYONE OF YOU WILL BE LIVIVG UNDER THE ARM AND CYCLE. Remember what HILTER tried to do during WWII. And our military fought for our FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!
Magnolia says
Favorability with whom????????? Those people who sit home and collect government benefits? Carter has finally been vindicated.
Pierre Tristam says
Clint, I seriously resent your mis-characterization of these polls. They are in fact Muslim (mostly Sunni, bit with the occasional Iranian Shiite in there), al-Qaeda, latter-day Khmer, Kenya-inspired, gay-oriented, Hezbollah-boiled, and diversity-dipped polls, whose administrators were all born in any one of the 57 nations in the Islamic Conference, whose data crunchers sang hymns to the National Organization of Women before asking their questions, and whose participants, all 3,000 of them, were some of those treasonous infiltrators Michelle Bachmann was talking about, whose names the pollsters got from the fraudulent frequent voter rolls at your local elections office. Also, did you know that John Lahey, the president of Quinnipiac University for three decades, has also been a member of the New York City St. Patrick’s Day Parade Committee for a quarter century, whose color (green) is the color of Islam (although the parade’s ban on queers–peace be upon our dearly departed lord and savior Gore Vidal–should be right up your dark alley), and that the Times is owned by Jews? That one should keep you busy fulminating until the end of Ramadan. Eid Mubarak.
palmcoaster says
Of Course…!
Anyone in their wildest dreams believe that Romney would be elected without the vote of most women , minorities, elderly on fixed income, middle class families struggling to stay financially afloat, students and gays and all those millions health care uninsured that are negatively affected with his GOP cheered agenda?
The only GOP candidate worthwhile my vote would have been Ron Paul…that now rightfully and finally is getting some support to audit the Fed over the financial debacle and Wall Street dealings. Too bad there was not support for his proposal to get us out of these costly wars.
Jim. R says
Obama will be Pres. for the next four years. Too bad he’s a Democrat like Bill Clinton was a Democrat and not a Democrat like Roosevelt was a Democrat.
He will continue the Empires deadly and foolish mission to rule the world, and he will nibble away at the social programs for the working and unemployed poor, (used to be called the middle class)
He will go down in history known as the Great Nibbler or the Great Assassin.
question says
Just want to bask in this truth, this day…and so hopefully true on Nov 6, 2012:
In Florida, PRESIDENT OBAMA ahead 51-45 percent,
In Ohio, PRESIDENT OBAMA is ahead 50-44 percent,
And in Pennsylvania, PRESIDENT OBAMA is ahead 53-42 percent.
K says
I’m just waiting for the announcement that Romney is naming Bachmann to be his Veep candidate.
Lonewolf says
Obama’s ahead with good reason. Mitt the Twit has bungled playing at diplomat in England of all places. Lets not elect a male version of Sarah Palin
Yellowstone says
“Everything is beautiful . . .”
Some are still wondering if Hawaii was annexed by Kenya, why informing the public about college transcripts, and whatever ‘legal tax forms’ means, are relevant to this election.
Seems like someone who obviates paying federal taxes by stuffing their 100s of millions in foreign banks and buying tax sheltered olympic show horses, laying hundreds off, sending his own state’s public sector jobs overseas, voting for Universal healthcare then saying he didn’t – ought to be scrutinized a little more closely.
Honest one: Did your unemployment finally run out? How’s your healthcare program doing – get bounced out because you had preexisting conditions? Seen any Death Squads on your porch? Are you even registered to vote?
Voting begins for Flagler County this weekend – GO VOTE!
Dorothea says
Are all FlaglerLive Mitt supporters so out of touch with reality, clinging to the hysterical rantings of the far right? Now you will have to excuse me, it’s the first of the month and I have to toddle off to the mailbox to collect my government benefits (Social Security) and put some Arm and Cycle in my washing machine.
The honest one says says
Jim R. I guess you really welcome Obama socialism/communism.If he gets in for another four years everyone will be under the federal governments thumb with every dollar they make and your healthcare will be a shambles. If you like your freedom you better rethink your thoughts as to who you are voting for.
Clint says
Care for a PORK sandwich ?
NortonSmitty says
No wonder Wall Street and the banks are spending so much on Democracy!
ricky says
I think Jimmy Carter is sitting home enjoying this. He’s now become the second worse president we ever had.
NortonSmitty says
Oh no! Poor Mittens! The worst Road Trip since Flounders in Animal House!
Mitt the Twit, Sarah Palin without the Lipstick, The Stepford Husband, The Dork of Dressage! And when the Polish people scratch their heads and say WTF, it’s getting seriously stupid even for the Republican Party. The Tea Party leadership has to be saying Is this the best we can do? I hear a whistling coming from right-wing sphincters inhaling from Wall Street to the Deep South, “Oh no, What have we done!”. I mean the convention is in a few weeks and we’re stuck with a self-destructive loser again! Mercy, what are we going to do! Who will save us??
And suddenly out from under his rock and appearing on Fox News shows after a respectful period feigning brotherly embarrassment and talking reasonably compared to what the Pilgrims have been spoon-fed by the Lunatic Primary Gang, Yes, It’s Him!! The Lone JEBster!!! Riding into Tampa in a cloud of dust with his Faithful Cuban Companion Marko at his side to rescue the Conservative Wagon Train form the inept Wagonmaster from Utah. Thank God, now we will not be at the mercy of the redistributioning Obama Gang and his Socialist Hoards!
Remember, you read it here first. The entire Fourth Estate will get the Vapors if it happens and before any vetting or reflection on anything on any major News outlet other than “this Bold Move by the Republican Delegates” and drowning out the screams of “Noo, please!! Not another Bush!!!!” it will be a done deal. If not, look for at least a feeler at the convention to set it up for ’16 after Barack strips whats left of our civil rights, safety net and attacks Iran without a whimper for the “Liberal” press.
It’s a great day to be an American isn’t it!
NortonSmitty says
You are a little late. He has been at least second worst for about twelve years now.
Nancy N. says
I’m not sure if I should be having nightmares at that prospect or gleefully anticipating all the fodder for Jon Stewart and his compatriots?
Jim. R says
Honest one
Honestly you should learn to read if you think my comment was an endorsement of Obama
Riley says
Four more years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Riley says
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Riley says
Please tell me there is republican somewhere who has refused to accept social security or medicare.