by Stephen Engelberg
As an editor, I’ve long had mixed feelings about the journalistic tradition of marking particular chronological or numerical milestones. No one wanted to avoid the “Sept. 11: One Year Later” package — and I was eager to do it given the six previous years I’d spent directing global coverage of al-Qaida — but the annual stories seemed far more forced by Sept. 11, 2005.
More recently, we’ve seen stories like “World War I: A Century Later” or “The 75th Anniversary of the End of World War II.” They’re often illuminating, but they don’t have deeper meaning than stories that might have been published on the 99th or 74th anniversary of those events.
And yet, there are milestones worth stopping to consider. At ProPublica, it was Andrea Wise, a story producer working for us on contract, who in early May asked: What are we planning for the 100,000th confirmed COVID-19 death? The result was a story we published on May 27 by Caroline Chen that looked back at how we got here and forward to how we might avoid reaching another grim milestone. As we wrote at the time: “The full tragedy of the pandemic hinges on one question: How do we stop the next 100,000?”
The sad, infuriating answer for the country that spends more per capita on health care than any other in the world: We couldn’t.
That makes this a moment worthy of some reflection. The United States will record the 200,000th COVID-19 death in days, just four months after the toll hit 100,000. Caroline pointed out in May that the best way to slow the spread of the virus would be to deploy “the oldest mitigation tactics in the public health arsenal.” That would have meant widespread testing to identify those who had caught the virus, quarantining and tracing the contacts of both symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers who could spread the disease to the most vulnerable.
“Being slow to act comes with a terrible cost,” she wrote.
Caroline and I had pulled together a list of many of the steps to slow down the virus in a road map we addressed to the nation’s governors back in April. Our advice was drawn from interviews with health authorities and experts in countries that were successfully battling the pandemic.
Hardly any states followed the practices that had worked well elsewhere. Instead, we saw President Donald Trump convene an indoor political rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, attended by thousands of people, some of whom have since died of COVID-19. In Sturgis, South Dakota, motorcycle enthusiasts proudly refused to wear masks or socially distance; that gathering has recorded its first fatality from the virus. Inexorably, the novel coronavirus marched across the United States, spreading from New York City and Seattle into the smaller cities and then the suburbs and rural communities. It displayed no real preference for blue or red states, though it has disproportionately harmed Black, Latino and poorer communities.
Our reaction? As a nation, we became inured to a national death toll that has only recently dropped below a thousand people a day. Think about that. Every week, we lose far more of our fellow citizens than died 19 years ago in the most devastating terrorist strike in American history.
As the summer months turn to fall, and the science about the virus grows more definitive, the national conversation has drifted further and further from the basic science. The wearing of masks has somehow turned into just another symbol of partisan warfare, with Trump accepting the Republican nomination on the White House lawn before a tightly packed crowd in which few wore face coverings. As the numbers of cases slowly drift down toward a plateau well above most industrialized countries, senior officials have begun speaking of the virus in the past tense.
Then there’s Trump’s expectation that there will be a vaccine approved “some time during the month of October.” The signs are encouraging. Multiple companies are reporting positive results from their phase 1 trials. But more than one promising pharmaceutical discovery has failed in phase 3. Just this week, AstraZeneca halted its trial after one of the volunteers who took the company’s experimental coronavirus vaccine developed neurological problems. (The company is now reviewing whether the symptoms are in any way related to the drug.)
Americans were skeptical about vaccine safety before this week’s disclosure that Trump had privately acknowledged the dangers of the coronavirus to journalist Bob Woodward while publicly proclaiming COVID-19 a “hoax” that would soon disappear. Release of a drug before all the data is gathered risks undermining the foundational principle of vaccination, which depends on inoculating very large numbers of people. With pharmaceutical companies publicly pledging not to release a vaccine that has not been fully tested, the odds of a game-changing medicine before 2021 are slim.
All of that brings us back to the things that are proven to work: the old-fashioned methods of social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks, tracing contacts and quarantining the sick. Many countries around the world, from Germany to South Korea to Singapore to Vietnam, have used these techniques to contain the virus. Yes, there are explanations for some of those successes. Islands, with the glaring exception of the United Kingdom, may have some advantages over countries with land borders (though plenty of African nations have very low death rates). Authoritarian governments have more options to coerce citizen cooperation. Asian countries lived through the SARS and MERS outbreaks.
But one need only consider Germany, an industrialized nation of 83 million people, to see how much better the U.S. could have done. So far, only 9,336 Germans have died from COVID-19, a rate of 11.26 per 100,000 citizens. By contrast, our death rate is roughly 58 per 100,000 Americans, more than five times Germany’s per capita toll. And while the number of daily deaths is slowly falling here, it’s still far higher than most countries with comparable investments in health care.
More than two decades ago, I wrote a book with my New York Times colleagues Judith Miller and Bill Broad called “Germs” that looked at the modern history of biological warfare. As a result, I was invited in the early aughts to play a Times reporter in a “tabletop” exercise organized by New York City. The health commissioner at the time, Dr. Tom Frieden, played the part of the health commissioner as we went through a dystopian scenario involving a mass anthrax attack on the subways. As the plot unfolded, various players were pushed into ethically uncomfortable questions. At one point, it was suggested that reporters like me had learned that the city lacked sufficient antibiotics to treat everyone who was dying. Would the Times agree to a request from Frieden to withhold that story from its readers? (I said I would not, but I wasn’t the boss.) The scenario turned darker. As word got out about the shortages, mobs began breaking into pharmacies to secure medicine. Health care workers refused to go to hospitals. The city fell into chaos.
That exercise assumed that the city’s public health system continued to function reasonably well and that individual hospitals or doctors would not be left on their own to figure out what to do. It now seems clear that the U.S. approach, which was to let every state governor and many mayors set their own policies, was far from optimal.
As we head into the fall, a number of the models are projecting an easing of the death toll, which was well over 1,000 Americans a day at its height. One of the most accurate models, by independent data scientist Youyang Gu, projects that the death rate will fall to 400 per day by Nov. 1, with a projected death toll of 218,000.
We will continue to report on every aspect of this horror, from its disparate racial impact to the failures of corporations as well as city, state and federal governments. All we can ask of you, the readers, is that you not become accustomed to this grim routine. We were willing to put up with massive disruptions to our lives after the 9/11 attacks left 3,000 Americans dead. One of Gu’s most fascinating models shows that the deaths from COVID-19 in the United States would have been halved if just 1 in 5 people with active symptoms had self-quarantined.
Here’s hoping that a trustworthy vaccine becomes widely available in the coming months or that more people find ways to self-isolate if they become ill. It is my dream that we will never have to write the story about 300,000th COVID-19 death.
Stephen Engelberg is ProPublica’s editor-in-chief and served as founding managing editor from 2008–2012.
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Gene says
Stephen Engelberg sir you’re nothing more then a left wing radical. Do something useful with your gift of vernacular jujitsu and write something positive like maybe the truth.
Every virology expert on the task force has publicly and forcefully has stated that had the president not ordered the travel band from China when he did the number of COVID deaths would have surpassed 2 million.
Do something better with your talent then to spin a positive into fear for the sole purpose of politics . 200,000 dead is terrible for those effected families however thanks to our president and the experts in place it’s a hell of a lot better then 2,000,000.
Pierre Tristam says
So Gene, would you be triumphally saying at 9/11 memorials that 3,000 dead is “a hell of a lot better then [sic. and sick]” 30,000? Or 300,000, your next shrug in covid’s “American carnage”?
Gene says
No I’m saying the president did exactly what he was supposed to do at the exact time he was able to do it with the travel ban. And he did it knowing he would get political backlash and be accused of being a racist, xenophobic etc as he did. The difference between President Trump and the lunatics on the left is the president does what’s best for the American people without hesitation or fear where as sleepy Joe would have done what was the radical politically correct thing to do and cost our nation an additional 1.8 million lives.
Scott M says
Imagine thinking that the President — which has not worn a mask since the beginning of the pandemic, backed random ineffective drugs, and asked the leading experts in a press conference if UV light would stop it — imagine thinking THAT President is doing a great job.
How does the kool-aid taste?
Gary R says
@Scott M – Does UV light kill the new coronavirus? The short answer is yes. But it takes the right kind of UV in the right dosage, a complex operation that is best administered by trained professionals. In other words, many at-home UV-light devices claiming to kill SARS-CoV-2 likely aren’t a safe bet. https://www.livescience.com/uv-light-kill-coronavirus.html
So how much kool-aid did you drink Scott?
Reinhold Schlieper says
But the stable genius suggested getting the light into an orifice or other, no? At least he was pointing his scientific bystanders into that direction, did he not?
Carl Lewis says
Gary, yes, UV light is known to be able to sanitize surfaces, but what is being referred to is that on April 23, during a press conference, President Trump suggested using UV light inside the body to knock out the virus. He also suggested injecting disinfectant for the same purpose. You can find the video of it by doing a Google search. Obviously, either of those two things is going to be extremely dangerous and will probably kill you, right?
Trailer Bob says
Latin America, while 8 percent of the world’s population, accounts for a third of infections and deaths with Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Mexico and Argentina among the top 10 hardest-hit countries in the world [File: Bloomberg]
Yes, some pesky world news that Americans do not read. I know…Bias is a terrible thing to waste.
Most US news is as political as, well…politicians.
You know the saying, “don’t believe everything you read”. Yup, those pesky sayings don’t always fit one’s narrative.
Carl Lewis says
On the other hand, the US has only 4.2% of the world’s population, but has 22% of worldwide cases. (https://covidcount.world/)
Arl says
Gene, By Trump banning American travel to-and-from China was a good thing. The idiot forgot and you forget that that the Chineese people also travelled around the world unknowingly spreading the virus. Had this idiot had a brain in his head or anyone with foresight would see that a travel ban needed to extend worldwide. My son and family travelled to Europe in mid-March and whalla, my son contracted Covid-19. Mama Bear will always speak out, so do not even think of contradicting me. You are barking up the wrong tree. If one of your loved ones contracted this virus during February forward, you would be singing a different tune.
Trailer Bob says
So Trump was supposed to call for a global ban? He is the President of the USA, not the King of the planet.
You political drama is getting in the way, unfortunately.
linda ascione says
Half of your article is BS OPTIONS! NO FACTS required LOL Why don’t you put your writing to something positive, and reassuring about COVID, like how to protect yourself!! Stay at home as much as possible only go out for necessities: food, doctors appointments, family emergencies, excetera! We have enough confusion about the virus!
Bob says
What is so hard to understand USA has more fat people then any other country. And all the underlying conditions that come with being overweight the virus loves. We have a virus with no cure that kills. Even with a vaccine it will still kill. We have neither. Why do so many think there should be no deaths. Flu virus kills 20k to 80k a year for more then 100 years.
Really says
Poor Leadership by an insecure Elitist who only cares about Relection to prolong his eventual demise. Pretends to care about his ill informed followers who are really just being used for his own outcome. If at first it wasnt a hoax or up played or lied about or ignoredor suppressed the list goes on and on We all would be in a much better situation than what we are now. Our Elected Officials have failed us and its about to get a whole lot worse IMO. PS Go out and Vote
Mark says
Peaceful protest are okay? Since politics need to be part of the cure, Biden will save us. He has the cure in his pocket.
HM says
No, he has China’s hand in his pocket
Charles F. Ericksen, Jr says
Apparently Propublica, of NY did spell out our present day problems,, But it is nothing compared to our figures on Cancer
Last year it was 1,700,000 diagnosed cases, 606,000 deaths, of which 135,000 was due to lung and bronchus
Sounds like they want to scare voters , about a candidate and not saving lives
Pierre Tristam says
Yippee for cancer!
Charlie F Ericksen says
My point was that your resourse was trying to continue Democratic blame on Trump, for the 200,000, and no one cares about who is to save the 200K..
Steve says
That is one of the more ignorant statements by a Local Politician ever. Even coming from a Flaglerite OMG LOL
Carl Lewis says
Yes, cancer, heart attacks, the seasonal flu and auto accidents all kill people every year. However, the deaths due to Covid-19 are over and above all of those and unnecessarily high. How do we know that the death rate is unnecessarily high? By comparing to 168 countries being tracked by Johns Hopkins, the US is the 11th highest and climbing fast. Not good! (See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality)
Also, as you are so concerned with cancer deaths, did you know that the Trump Administration’s budget proposal for last year cut almost $900 million from cancer research?
You would do well to research this President’s track record on health care and reconsider your political allegiance come November. We would love to be able to have you as a former Republican!
See my other response below.
Can't Fix Stupid says
Are you really Charlie Ericksen? Because I can’t fathom that a County Commissioner can be this dense, but then again Mullens is your brethren.
Cancer – Not transmissible via the air. Not novel and has a lot of treatments currently developed.
Covid – Very transmissible via the air. Very novel and people are using witchcraft medicine as therapeutics while it has killed almost 200K in 9 months. That’s with mitigation.
Bill C says
On 9/11/2001, approximately 3,000 people died in the attack on the World Trade Center. Today the average death rate from Corona virus is 1,000 people per day. That is the equivalent of one 9/11 attack every three days. Now the public has heard Donald Trump in own words, recorded back on February 7th, saying “You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed… this is deadly stuff.” When will the anti-mask crowd finally realize they’ve been played as “suckers” and “losers” by a president who is only interested in his own re-election? It’s the same science denying president who called Covid a hoax that is also calling climate change a hoax.
Gary R says
@Bill C – President Trump did not call the virus a hoax. Trump did use the word “hoax” but his full comments, and subsequent explanation, make clear he was talking about Democratic attacks on his administration’s handling of the outbreak, not the virus itself. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/democratic-ad-twists-trumps-hoax-comment/
Bill C says
Everybody knows that Trump deliberately misled the public about the seriousness of the pandemic and is still doing so. That’s why so many people are still not wearing masks and following HIS EXAMPLE. You also skipped over the quote “You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed… this is deadly stuff.” Why not explain that statement instead of engaging in a semantic side show?
Trailer Bob says
On 9/11/2001, approximately 3,000 people died in the attack on the World Trade Center. Today the average death rate from Corona virus is 1,000 people per day”?
Why are some of you comparing Covid with 9/11?
They are two totally non-related issues. Totally different causes of death.
Things are bad enough without adding gas to the fire.
But one thing I do believe is that this COVID virus and its attachments to destruction and death are making many people look for ridiculous comparisons for political and emotional reasons…none of which will do a damn thing to help our Country. I hate to see me type this, but let’s leave this to the supposed experts in chemistry, biology, and medicine. Take blood pressure reading daily, and look for the good for a change, the other options is destroying us mentally and financially.
Bill C says
P.S. For Trump to say he didn’t want to cause a panic by telling the truth about Covid 19 is like him saying he knew a hurricane was coming but didn’t want to say anything because he didn’t want to cause a panic. (SUCKERS!)
Ramone says
It’s sad to see these unfortunate deaths used for political purposes. All involved should be ashamed.
MD says
An article just came out yesterday or the day prior complaining about a ‘politicized/rushed’ vaccine, doubting its potential for a safe resolution, or, in the least, mitigation of covid 19. Now, today, people complain about a milestone of lives lost. Flagler Live is pretty darn consistent about complaining. How about being a part of the solution instead of being a part of the confusion?
Carl Lewis says
As some comments have pointed out, things could have been even worse, and yes, there are deaths every year from other diseases and causes. However, these 200,000 deaths are in addition to deaths from other causes, and could have, and should have, been far, far lower.
On the topic of cancer deaths, did you know that the Trump Administration last year proposed cutting cancer research funding by almost $900 million?
But, back to Covid: the United States supposedly has the best health care of any country in the world. In the past we have been the world leader in showing the rest of the world how things are done and done right. Yet, here we are with the highest Covid death rate and one of the highest per capita death rates of any country in the world. This did not happen because we did everything right!
This happened because of mixed, or no messages or help from the top, from the White House to the Florida Governor’s Mansion.
Yes, the President did implement a travel ban from China. However, the President also disbanded the White House Pandemic Office back in 2018. He refused to take responsibility for the Covid response and said so publicly at a press conference on March 13, 2020. He has refused to lead by example and wear a face mask, and has incited others to do the same, effectively politicizing a national health care situation. He has also threatened to withhold federal aid from “Blue” states. How is that being the President of the United States? Is the President not the leader of the whole country? Should he not be unifying the country at a time like this?
What we need now is to be standing together and fighting this virus in a unified manner, not bickering over whether mask wearing is a political statement.
Jim Davis says
What is wrong with dying? Why argue about something that has no right answer? Nature gives us life, and ensures our death when it begins. It’s called a circle. Find the beginning and the end of the circle and you will then be GOD!!!!
I can assure you, no matter the party proposing any solution for any problem in our country, they first look for the financial benefit for thyself, before We The People.
Jimbo99 says
How many more must die ? That’s a good question, anyone in the scientific community have this quantum breakthrough on a cure, even a vaccine that might be a “real” solution. So far Coronavirus has paid out quite well for unaffordable healthcare. There’s little incentive for a recession to end. This is the perfect excuse, it’s something that can’t be blamed on a human, like where the next hurricane strikes. Yet those seeking power will try to saddle Trump with it. We should all be suspicious when Biden/Harris tell us they will control and beat a virus that they still haven’t cured a common cold, traditional flu or HPV (common warts). So we’re back to liars & self proclaimed experts writing relief paychecks to themselves & they don’t know anything about COVID–19. So how are they experts ? How does one justify the big payouts to themselves ? They can save themselves financially from something they are very unlikely to contract as infected. And even if they do become infected, they’ll most likely be asymptomatic.
Shark says
You got what you voted for – incompetence at the highest level
Reinhold Schlieper says
He really could shoot people in the middle of the road with everyone looking and Trumpublicans like Mr. Gene above would still applaud and vote for that idiot. It’s probably all that alien DNA that his favorite physician says is coursing about. For the first time in 175 years of its existence, Scientific American magazine has endorsed a candidate, namely Joe Biden–and mainly because Trump has ignored all science and scientists and their recommendations, relying on magical thinking and illusions where, as we now know, he KNEW better. Raking the leaves in California is not going to make global warming go away. Unfortunately, the people who are able to reason are going to fry alongside Trumpublican nitwits when California will happen here also eventually.
Sherry says
Mr. Erickson. . . . you do understand that cancer is NOT contagious, correct? You also understand that many cancers are inherited and therefore not easily preventable, correct? You also “should” understand that all you are doing is mindlessly repeating FOX talking points that are completely non-sequitur. Our precious lives lost to cancer do NOT relate at all to those lost to Covid. . . who are just as precious.
In fact many medical experts have reported that many, many Covid deaths were easily preventable with better government leadership. Sir, may I suggest that you expand your news gathering beyond FOX. . . to PBS or the Associated Press in ordered to be better informed.
Consider the possibility that if we had government officials at ALL levels who were LEADERS that passed enforceable health safety regulations, we would have lost far fewer precious souls to the Covid pandemic. We deserve government officials who have a well rounded, continuing education, who believe in the factual information presented by scientific experts. who are trustworthy and ethical, and who are open and honest with the American people.
We do not have those leaders at the federal, state or local level. . . therefore, people are needlessly becoming ill and dying from this lethal virus.
Trailer Bob says
May I suggest you take a look at the news provider Al Jazeera? In all I have ever read in the news, this outlet seems to be the most accurate with reporting, least bias, and it covers the world news based on occurrence, period.
I make sure I read it daily just to help me stay sane. Been doing to for 40 years. ALL the cbs, nbc, fox, etc are biased. Just the way it is. EVERY ONE OF THEM.
Sherry says
@ Gene. . . please get your facts straight:
430,000 + people flew from China to the US ater China informed the World Health Organization of the virus! 279 flight from China to the US happened AFTER trump’s China ban.
Please tell us precisely how you know what a President Biden would have done. Did you work in the Obama/Biden administration. . . you know, the one that very successfully contained the EBOLA outbreak?
Why it matters: Trump has suggested that his action to ban foreigners from entering the U.S. if they were in China before early February has contributed to lower COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the U.S.
“I cut off China very early. And if I didn’t, we would have a chart that you wouldn’t believe,” Trump said at a briefing on Friday, referring to White House models on where the virus has spread in the U.S. and how many deaths have occurred.
Details: 279 flights from China have arrived in the U.S. since Trump’s travel restrictions were announced, “and screening procedures have been uneven,” the Times notes.
Passengers arrived this past week from Beijing to California and New York under travel exemptions that exist for Americans and some others.
The big picture: At least 430,000 people have flown to the U.S. from China since Dec. 31, when China first informed the World Health Organization about cases of novel coronavirus in Wuhan, the Times reports.
Morg says
I’m sure the peaceful protests have nothing to do with this spike whatsoever. They made sure to be 6 feet apart while looting
Reinhold Schlieper says
You were there? Or is this mere conjecture? From what I have observed, they have worn masks and did not gather indoors–unlike the Trumpublicans.
Morg says
Having sat through ~30 hours of live streams I can confirm that they generally did not maintain a safe 6 foot distance and that they did gather indoors at times (while pillaging). I’m wondering if you’ve seen anything beyond the few seconds of clips MSNBC cherrypicked for you, Mr. Schlieper.
Reinhold Schlieper says
30 hours? My god, Man! How about getting a life? ;-) So, fact is that neither of us was there to observe first hand. Fact is also that the indoor rally in Tulsa produced some deaths; the protests did not. And I wonder how many indoor looters did you observe in your 30 hour marathon viewing?
Trailer Bob says
Show us the data that all those thieves and arsonist did not contribute to “one” contraction of COVID. I watched much of the riots where many, I mean maybe most, did not social distance or wear shields or mask while burning down cities and looting and beating others in the streets.
Making up stuff doesn’t make it real. I am alarmed by your mental removal of what most of us saw in those “real” live videos. SMH
Sherry says
Regarding the spreading of FEAR. . . . Many, many people are fear filled because our government, at all levels, has FAILED to be open and honest with the American people! It has FAILED to coordinate, cooperate and LEAD in protecting us from a pandemic that is FIVE TIMES more deadly than the FLU! Our fear is much more powerful and acute because we have ZERO TRUST in our FAILED, DIVISIVE government!!!!
Steve says
To completely understand this i think you need to review history and past decisions. Over the past several decades politicians, while both parties are partly responsible, mainly democrats unfortunately, have allowed jobs, technology, intellectual property, in all industries including medical to go overseas. Remember the “medical device” tax? That drove more products and jobs overseas taking immediate accessibility of these products out of our control. Remember our president Obama stating, “these jobs are gone and not coming back”. This adversely affects our ability to respond, develop and manufacture products we needed.
Red Tape-Never has an fda approval been on such a fast track. President Trump removed the red tape and over reaching regulations that cause 5 to 10 year waits in some cases for fda approvals.
social experiment programs-over several decades politicians, again unfortunately mostly democrats, have gutted programs and blown budgets on social experiment, pet projects and pork in bills. It is important that you have the necessities in place for safety, national security, pandemics, etc. before you spend on pet projects. A perfect example for us Floridians…we live in a hurricane zone. We all have our homes ready, our supplies ready for a hurricane. We do this before we worry about less important things, simply because, they are necessities.
As an independent i blame two for the pandemic. China for knowingly releasing it, and long term politicians for gutting our jobs, medical supply chains and other life saving and national security challenges we now face.
It is not difficult to understand China’s position toward the USA. We’ve had several dangerous and deadly products enter our country from china from flooring and drywall, to lead laced childrens toys, baby food and pet products. All of these products have been taken away from US workers and sent overseas by greedy politicians and the contaminated products eventually end up in our landfills, polluting our ground and our water. I personally look at the label of everything i buy. If it says made in china it stays on the shelf. This will make our environment safer and help brings jobs back home, where they should be, so when there’s another emergency, and there will be, our leaders don’t have to scramble for something as simple as a facemask or ventilator. These items should have already been stock piled. If we continue to rely on other countries for our own safety and security, we will be dependent on them for more than just facemasks in the future.
This is going to take time, as a community we need to continue to support our businesses as best we can, and stay vigilant and have enough common courtesy for our neighbors to be mindful of our surroundings. We’ve had several out of state people move or visit. I believe this has negatively impacted our infection rate.