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A Micro-Bump for Romney in Florida, But Obama Still Leads, Especially on Medicare

| August 23, 2012

He’s enjoying the ride. (White House)

President Obama’s time inside 50 percent approval in Florida did not last very long: he’s back down to 49 percent in the latest Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times swing state poll, against Mitt Romney’s 46. That compares to a 51-45 percent Obama advantage three weeks ago. It reflects the addition of Paul Ryan to Romney’s ticket, but does not reflect any effects from the implosion of the Republican Party over Missouri Rep. Todd Aiken’s following his remarks about “legitimate rape.” Aiken, a Republican, is running for a U.S. Senate seat considered crucial to Republican hopes of reclaiming a Senate majority, which they have not held since January 2007.

Obama’s leads in crucial swing states remain, however: In Ohio, he’s still at 50 percent to Romney’s 44, unchanged since Aug. 1. In Wisconsin, he’s at 49 to Romney’s 47, compared to 51-45 just three weeks ago. The sizeable change is attributable to the Ryan effect: Ryan is from Wisconsin. And he has slightly better favorability ratings in the three states than does Joe Biden, Obama’s running mate. Pennsylvania was not part of the latest swing-state polling by Quinnipiac, but the Keystone state is considered almost safe for Obama.

In Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin, Obama polls better when it comes to Medicare: voters in each state say Obama would do a better job on Medicare and reject by wide margins a voucher-type Medicare system, advanced by Ryan: Obama has a 62 – 28 percent advantage in Florida, 64 – 27 percent in Ohio and 59 – 32 percent in Wisconsin. Ryan would privatize Medicare (leaving the existing model as an option, but a more costly one), providing seniors with set vouchers with which to buy insurance. The vouchers are considered both riskier, providing coverage that would be less broad than the current model provides.

There is a curious dissonance between the numbers in Florida. While 62 percent of voters give Obama the advantage on Medicare, older voters in the Sunshine state — those 65 and older — back Romney by a 55-42 margin. That’s a reflection of the tea party’s influence in Florida (Flagler County included), where repealing Obamacare is a central plank of tea party passions. Independents are also backing Romney by 48 to 44 percent, which should be a worry to Obama: a Florida win is unlikely without stronger independent support, especially if the economy nationally and in Florida continues to sputter. In Florida last month, the unemployment rate went back up by 0.2 percentage points, and jobs were lost. The GOP is holding its national convention in Tampa later this month, which should also give Romney a boost in Florida.

“Gov. Mitt Romney’s pick of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate has made some small difference in Florida and Wisconsin, at least at this point, when voters in these three key states are asked about their presidential vote,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Voters, however, see Ryan in a more favorable light than they do Vice President Joseph Biden. And when voters assess the two running mates’ qualifications to become president, Biden is only slightly ahead in Florida and Ohio and slightly behind the seven-term congressman in Wisconsin. In fact, Ryan’s qualified/unqualified ratio is better than Biden’s.”

“Solid majorities in each state agree with Romney that government – presumably the Obama administration – is doing too many things that should be left to the private sector,” Brown continued. “Wisconsin voters say Romney is better handling the economy while Ohio and Florida voter see little difference. Obama is the clear favorite in handling health care and Medicare. By more than 4-1 margins, voters in each state say the health care program for the elderly is worth the cost and six in 10 say they favor keeping the current Medicare model. But 10 percent of voters in each state would support ‘major reductions’ in Medicare to reduce the deficit and almost 50 percent would support ‘minor reductions.'”

Other findings in the Quinnipiac poll:

Florida’s efforts to remove people from the voter rolls will prevent ineligible people from voting, 65 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say it will suppress voting.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, his Republican challenger, 50 – 41 percent. Independent voters split with 45 percent for Nelson and 43 percent for Mack.

Voters disapprove 47 – 41 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.

“Florida voters disagree with the claim that the state’s efforts to look for those who are not American citizens and on voter rolls is aimed at suppressing minority turnout on Election Day,” Brown said. “By more than 2-1 they see the effort as one aimed at stopping those who are ineligible to vote from casting a ballot.”

The polls were conducted from August 15 – 21, surveying 1,241 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of + or – 2.8 percent; 1,253 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of + or – 2.8 percent; and 1,190 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of + or – 2.8 percent. The polls entailed live interviewers through land lines and cell phones.

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21 Responses for “A Micro-Bump for Romney in Florida, But Obama Still Leads, Especially on Medicare”

  1. Anyone that is voting for Mitt Romney really needs to understand what he stands for. Just his tax plan should keep anyone that is just making it today from voting for him.

    Under the Romney tax plan he would enact if he is president will eliminate the only major deductions most Middle Class Americans have.

    Our mortgage interest and the child tax credit.

    Yet he will cut the taxes for anyone making 200k ormore and keep the current tax rates.

    Obama however wants to end the Bush tax cuts and restore the tax plan back to the Bill Clinton years.

    So if you have a mortgage and kids can you afford to vote for Mitt Romney, I know I can’t?

    Also if Mitt Romney bought the company you worked for, would you be worried?

    Obama 2012×1790-94826.png

  2. rrr says:

    God help us if Obama is our president again ….

  3. Gia says:

    If this guy is reelected it will be like WW3

  4. question says:

    How can the Republicans lose…look what they have to offer…below just tiny hint of the low-lights:

    * Women: Mandatory Transvaginal Ultrasounds: Coming Soon to a State Near You, Rush calling you a slut and demanding sex videos, Paul Ryan, your new Vice President co-sponsor of ‘forcible rape-absolutely no exceptions’ lunacy.

    * Hispanics: Electrocute anyone who touches border fence, No Dream Act, No Drivers Lic. says AZ Gov Jan Brewer

    * African Americans: 0% will vote for them. Only ‘R’ vote: ‘81Communist Democrats in U.S. House, Allen West

    * Everybody: No more Medicare…but you get a lovely voucher you can put on your mirror and watch yourself starve to death due to medical bills

    P.S. NO ONE can win the Presidency without the Women, African American & Hispanic votes…so how you doing there MITT?? — one answer… down 20% !! with women.

  5. The honest one says says:

    Roomey1040, are you kidding. Get your head out of the sand. Voters, all parties, go see the movie 2016 Obama’s America. People do your own homework. Stop listening to the lieing news media and people that do not know what they are talking about. Obama promised change four years ago and sure, you all voted for that change. Tell me what CHANGE has he made in your life. The change he is accomplishing is bringing the United States back to Colonialism of which he will be the dictator. That is communism folks. Remember Obama has lied for four years. Do you all like the 14% unemployment in this county?

    • Go see a movie? That is all you got? Aren’t you the same guy that bitched about Michael Moore and Oliver Stone when he proved what a Joke George Bush was? 1st Obama is a Socialist , then he is a
      communist then he is Colonialism member from Kenya that faked his birth because he knew he would become president.

      Obama has done a great job dealing with the crooks called the Republican Party. With all that he has been handed the simple fact that the economy is actually adding jobs is amazing. Romney is going to raise the taxes on the middle class, it is fact in his policy has been reviewed by tons of experts. The Tax Policy Center concluded, is that middle class families would see a $2,000 tax hike, and that is based on the most generous assumptions, since Romney has yet to provide specific details of the plan. Can you afford a tax hike? I thought Obama was the tax king… Also what is the lieing news media? The LYING news media is Fox news. The network that says Obamacare is stealing billions from seniors, Obama is getting rid of welfare and telling the world were a Navy Seal lives from the Bin Laden raid. Be honest with yourself and go back under your Rock!

  6. Magicone says:

    The Navy Seals removed one threat to our government; (Bin Laden). We need to vote the other one out of office in November !! Imagine the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove that they are insured…. but not everyone must prove that they are a citizen. Many of those who refuse, or are unable to prove they are citizens, will receive free insurance paid for by those who are forced to buy insurance because they are citizens Something seems wrong with this picture.

  7. some guy says:

    God only helps thoses who help themselves. So if we again elect 0bama why would we get help from above???

  8. question says:

    The Best Takedown Of A Tea Partier Came From The President Of Ireland

    Leave it to the Irish to teach their American cousins a thing or two about the ancient art of the smackdown.

    A 2010 interview between Michael D. Higgins, who was elected President of Ireland in 2011, and Boston conservative radio host Michael Graham has recently gone viral, with a YouTube clip of the debate attracting over half a million visitors. (Close to 200,000 of those visits were recorded in the past 48 hours, according to The Irish Times.) Now views up to almost 1 1/2 million.

  9. Ben Blakely says:

    obama is spending and printing money as only an insane person can. Florida, can you please open your eyes and see how this hate America obama is deliberately wrecking the U.S. economy?

    obama is obsesses with the hatred of the western civilization that his demented father instilled in him.

    The country cannot have a president who has ZERO business experience and ZERO understanding of economics. You cannot allow this lame brained misfit to have another 4 years of failed socialist power.

    Look around you and see how the country is decaying and failing. Look at all the unemployment and the depressed attitudes of the people. There is NO leadership from obama because he has no capacity to lead. He is nothing but a drug addicted marxist radical ideologist who cares NOTHING for you and only for his dream to bring down America.

    Vote obama OUT. Vote the socialist democrats OUT. Save YOUR country and SAVE your family’s future! Vote for Romney and empower the recovery of America and your future.

  10. Anonymous says:

    the left is going nuts with the thougt that 0bama will loose because of his own doing.

  11. Sydney says:

    I will not vote for Mitt. I am female, for one thing. As for Obama, my disappointment when he bailed out the banks bordered on disgust. @TheHonestOne I don’t know where you’re coming up with 14% unemployment. That’s not being honest. If you’re talking about last year’s unemployment rate for Flagler County, then I must advise you to look to the local elected officials, most off whom are/were republican. As much as people like to call Obama a communist, I don’t quite think he micromanages so much that he keeps a list of individual counties in each state on his walls. I could be wrong. And as for the ‘communism’, a word that people throw around so casually, I for one happen to feel that the banksters and corporations are more fascistic than any other entity in this country. There comes a time when capitalism becomes a little too extreme and real people can no longer compete. Capitalism without regulation is not a Constitutional right. Just consider any company which is ‘too big to fail’, and I include the bank and auto industry bailouts with that thought. It really does boil down to the lesser of two evils in this case, as both candidates mentioned so far are both corporate sponsored. I’d vote Jill Stein all day long if I wasn’t in a swing state. I happen to believe that the 2 party system is meant to divide and conquer all of us. Most people already know what the definition of insanity is. Well I see voting for O again as insane. It’ll just maintain the status quo for another 4 years. The drones and the threats of more military action in other parts of the world are worrisome, but what would Mitt do?? Romney is still running for office and already refusing to answer questions he doesn’t like. With the epic fail of Mitt’s ‘foreign’ visit to England, I can’t help but shudder at the thought of what would happen if he had to sit down with Vladimir Putin or Hu Jintao over any matter at all, serious or not. Since we only have these two candidates, I would ask you to consider what is more important to you.. keeping illegals from getting medical coverage (hate to tell you but most of them ALREADY have medicaid, and did have even during George W’s 2 terms) and while doing so, make medical treatment so expensive for your parents and/or grandparents by messing with Medicare that they end up dying from something that could have been prevented? If you’re okay with that, and also don’t mind if your wife or daughter give you a rape-baby because she wasn’t allowed to take the morning after pill because she didn’t ‘fight back’ when someone was sexually abusing her, then by all means.. vote for Mitt Romney. In my case, I think I’ll stick with the lesser of two evils, although this time I won’t be expecting any change. Lastly, I refuse to let either of those corporate puppets divide and conquer me from my friends, my family, my neighbors and my community. It is our right to vote and we need to respect everyone’s opinions, not just our own.

  12. Lonewolf says:

    It’s Medicare versus Vouchercare. It’s a pretty clear choice.

  13. Ben Blakely says:

    Like 16 Trillion dollars in debt and climbing $1.2 trillion more this year? Thank Barry obama!

    Like record unemployment? Thank Barry obama!

    Who robbed Medicaid of 750 Billion dollars? Barry obama did! And then he lied that he didn’t!

    Who has reduced the strength of the military to record low levels weakening America? obama did!

    Who spends more and taxes more than any other president? obama!

    Who is the most deceptive, most dishonest, most corrupt president in U.S. history? OBAMA!!!

  14. Dorothea says:

    @Ben B.

    Your list is a collection of radical right spinmeister lies. I suggest that you get your information from other sources besides Fox and Republican ads. You can start here:

    From there you can google “republican lies.” That’s if you are really interested in the truth.

  15. question says:

    P.S. Funniest thing I’ve seen today: America needs to petition the U.S. House of Representatives to —

    Remove Todd Akin From the House SCIENCE Committee ..? ! …

  16. question says:

    Will be fun to watch Chris Christy dance around his NY Post piece…MITT WON’T WIN.
    Not too effective non-denial denial today. ‘Shoddy’…but not un-true.

    btw…Christy is right, Mitt won’t win..

  17. "My Daily Rant" says:

    Maybe Im missing something here but how can people be happy with the way obama handles Medicare,
    He just robbed it of $700 Billion how is that not going to hurt it.He takes it from the elderly who needs it and who also put it there, to give it to the people who expect everything for free, and obama has made it possible that they dont need to work.My doctor in Flagler county just informed us by mail he isnt takeing on Medicare or Medicaid.Medicaid you know the one started so all these women having babbys with no means of support and also Anchor babbys get free insurance, you notice obama isnt touching that.

    Romney 1040, Yes and Obama has done such good work with the economy, as long as someone like you gets your tax breaks your happy.Have you ever thought about the mess were leaving our kids and grand kids but you vote for obama and he will give you your tax break, maybe this time he will borrow it from Iran,or Saudi Arabia.WAKE UP maybe you have not figured it out yet but that money obama is spending is borrowed.
    There should be an across the board tax, then we all pay the same.Lets stop thinking about ourselfs and try to leave our Great Nation a little better than we got it, For our kids. PEACE

    question, Well heres my reply to a Left Liberal want everything for free,
    1. Tell women the ones that have to carry the BABY about birth control, its cheap and easy to get.Or tell the man to use a condom.These sound easier than an abortion, also not as messy.
    2.Dont need to electrify fence but we must tighten up security on border,Its a shame but we just cant afford millions sneaking across the border when our economy is at its worst.Also if Im a terrorist the best way to get into the U.S. is over that border, and dont think they dont know that.
    3.Your third line doesnt make much sence,
    4.Obama just robbed Medicare of $700 Billon to pay for his health care, you dont think that will hurt.
    5.African Americans will always vote for a Black it doesnt really matter who it is,Women I have heard Romney has picked up quite a few mostly Educated,Hispanics Romney has a good following of the Legal ones, their worried about the economy also,obama gets the Illegals that slip through, there wont be as many with law changes in voteing and the fact that Accorn is gone.
    Hopefully we will see Romney in the White House next year, Because we cant take another 4 years of Obama.

    • Romney 1040 says:

      FDR was a Left Liberal and under his 4 terms he helped turn around the country after a depression and World War II. So you can call me a Liberal any time you want. I am proud of it. For a guy that couldn’t stand he sure knew how to stand up to Hitler, Japan and the GOP.

      Also it is you that needs to wake up and stop using Children as the reason why you vote Republican.
      If you cared about the future you can’t vote for the Republican party because they have created the huge mess Obama has tried to fix. Starting with the death of Ted Kennedy and the Al Franken fight in Minn the Senate and Congress has been nothing but a huge joke since late 2009. The main goal of Congress is to make sure Obama isn’t elected, isn’t that what your Leader Mitch had to say? What do you have to say about that? Where is your outrage that nothing from Congress has helped you or I ?


      Romney wants to take away my tax break for my kids and my house yet he wants to increase the tax breaks for the upper 2%? Our Tax rate is the lowest in 60 + years but you want to take mine away and give more the Job creators that are spending their tax cuts on political ads? It has been almost 10 years since the Bush Tax Cuts, what does the 98% have to show for it? I have a underwater house, a broken 401k and no savings and work 3 jobs to have an average life and I have never missed a payment. But YOU want Romney to give more Tax breaks so people like him pay .038% and I pay 42%?

      Also Obama isn’t robbing any money from Medicare. (funny how you use robbed more Coded GOP FOX news talk since he is black). The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act slows the growth in Medicare spending in several ways, including smaller automatic increases in payment rates for treatment providers and lower subsidies for private insurers. These two changes account for the largest savings — $571 billion over 10 years, by the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate. Both of them operate on the theory that the recipients of Medicare dollars can and should deliver better value of the money.

      Liberals don’t want anything free. We just want the same playing field as our Grandparents and Great Grandparents. Can’t do that when you pay 42% in taxes when you make less then 50k but someone that makes 300 million a year pays less then 13%.

      Republicans are suppressing voting rights and trying to remove Supervisor of Elections if they don’t play along. What are you so worried about?

      Republicans are blocking women’s rights. Rape is Rape right?

      Republicans use undocumented workers so they don’t have to pay taxes.

      Republicans vote for anyone as long as it isn’t Obama.

      Obamacare saved my mother in law’s life because she was finally able to buy a policy.

      Any leader that can finally give Americans a Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, end a recession and start adding jobs. Leaves Iraq, Sends in a Seal team to kill Bin Laden, Killed more Terrorists in 3.5 years then any other president and still give the middle class and small business 13+ tax breaks will get my vote over a draft dodging, no tax return showing Robot that flips flops on where he stands on issues every day.

      A LONG List of President Obama’s Accomplishments! With Citations!

      For the kids, for the future and to move FORWARD.. VOTE OBAMA IN 2012.

      Ben Prove your points..

  18. Dorothea says:

    @Daily Rant

    I just answered your rant containing the same preposterous untruths in another section, only now you have added more. Please give us some real facts, not all this Republican and Fox News BS. You did not provide a single source, not even what you heard or saw in a Republican political advertisement or uttered by one of the professional ranter on FOX News. Rant, really now, Acorn, illegals getting free care and slipping through the border, blacks always vote black, legal Latinos and educated women vote Romney. Fox News could use your talents at twisting reality.

  19. Ben Blakely says:

    The Democrats rely on dependency….YOURS.

    They take your independence, your freedom in exchange for welfare, food stamps, fee cell phones, and empty promises and hopelessness. You become completely helpless and dependent and live a miserable life in exchange for your vote to keep the Democrats in power. They are your master and you are their SLAVE.
    Is this the America you dreamed of??? Is this the life you wanted? Are you happy with obama lies, deception, corruption and dishonesty?

    Vote obama OUT, OUT OUT! Vote the Democrat socialists OUT of office in November!
    Save your future! Save your family’s future! Vote Republican for a way out of your desperation.

    Build it yourself and ignore the lies and nasty deception of barry obama. obama is only interested in one thing, HIS job! He cares nothing for you. obama is just a HATEFUL, selfish little boy.

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