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Gillum Leads DeSantis 52-46, Taking 21-Point Lead Among Women, 18 With Independents

| October 23, 2018

Andrew Gillum in Palm Coast  last month. (© FlaglerLive)

Andrew Gillum in Palm Coast last month. (© FlaglerLive)

Mirroring fellow-Democrat Bill Nelson’s lead in his race for U.S. Senate against Rick Scott, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is leading ex-Congressman Ron DeSantis 52-46 percent in the race for governor with two weeks to go, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The poll was conducted before the two men clashed in their first debate Sunday. They debate again Wednesday.


The customary “two weeks to go” marker is becoming outdated, however, as Floridians in most counties, including Flagler, have already started voting. Two-thirds of them will have voted by Election Day on Nov. 6.

Gillum is so far winning key demographics, with a seemingly insurmountable 18-point lead among independents, who usually decide statewide races. Gillum was expected to win among minorities: he has 99 percent of the black vote and 59 percent of the Hispanic vote, and he is not only winning big among women in general, with a 21-point advantage, but he’s also winning among white women, with 50 percent to DeSantis’s 47 percent. The only major demographic Gillum is losing is among white men, who back DeSantis 62-37.

Gillum is polling best in the Bay area, the I-4 corridor and the southeast of the state. DeSantis is polling better in the north and Panhandle area, and in the southwest.

DeSantis started his race against Gillum disastrously when he made a statement about Gillum with racist overtones, but has been gaining slight ground: the previous Quinnipiac poll had him down by nine points. He’s also improved his favorability rating, albeit from 42 to 43, with his dis-favorability reduced from 47 to 43. But the poll also found that only 2 percent of likely voters remain undecided, which would suggest that minds are made up in a race that’s not quite close at the moment.

Ron DeSantis during Sunday's debate with Andrew Gillum. (© FlaglerLive via CNN)

Ron DeSantis during Sunday’s debate with Andrew Gillum. (© FlaglerLive via CNN)

“Looking inside the numbers of the governor’s race between Mayor Andrew Gillum and former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, we see shining examples of the problems Republicans face this year, not just in Florida, but around the country,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “The GOP has faced strong opposition from women and other anti-Trump voters. These defections have hurt GOP candidates around the country and made it difficult to attract the numbers of independent voters that are often major players in successful campaigns. Here in Florida that has translated into an 18-point Gillum lead among independent voters.”

DeSantis since 2012 was the representative for the 6th Congressional District, which includes all of Flagler. He resigned to focus on the governor’s race. The seat is now being contested by Democrat Nancy Soderberg and Republican Michael Waltz.

The Quinnipiac Poll is among the more reputable in a crowded field of pollsters, garnering an A minus from FiveThirtyEight. Bay News 9/Survey USA released a poll conducted almost at the same time as Quinnipiac, finding Gillum ahead by seven points. St. Pete Polls, a pollster that uses automated phone calls as opposed to live callers, found Gillum ahead by one point. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has Gillum ahead by 4.7 percent.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters from Oct. 17-21, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

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27 Responses for “Gillum Leads DeSantis 52-46, Taking 21-Point Lead Among Women, 18 With Independents”

  1. kar says:

    He doesn’t have my vote nor any woman or independent I know!! I don’t know of anyone that wants state income taxes that will kill our hard earned income to be taken away from us! He hasn’t done any good in the pan handle and is taking money from Soros UGH anyone that votes for him Please Wake UP! He will kill our State!!

  2. mausborn says:

    If you think the Trump economy is helping everyone, you are dumb AF. Trump’s ‘major’ tax promise is a sign that even he recognizes the 2017 tax cuts didn’t resonate with voters. Exhibit 1 for why there will always be Trump voters. People are dumb.

    It’s race-baiting time again from a white supremacist group trolling black Florida voters with a robo call from an Uncle Remus-sounding African American talking about Andrew Gillum

  3. ConstantlyAmazed says:

    If this guy gets ejected this state is FINISHED.

    Andrew Gilliium socialist agenda is raising and creating TAXES, TAXES & more TAXES.
    REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH via one socialist program after another usually the same ones that fail time and time again.

  4. Percy's mother says:

    Women voting for Gillum? I don’t think so.

    I don’t know any woman who’s voting for Gillum.

    Wasn’t Hitlary (Hillary) supposed to win by a landslide in 2016? (according to the “polls”).

    As I posted in 2016 when this type of polling was being reported about “her” (Hitlary), I wouldn’t vote for that person and I didn’t know any other woman who would vote for “that person” in 2016. I was right.

    Ditto for the mid-term election in 2 weeks.

  5. Mary Fusco says:

    Wouldn’t it be nice if all politicians grew up and stopped twittering, taking selfies, etc. etc. and did a job? Bottom line is that it doesn’t matter who wins this elections. NOTHING is going to change. Politicians just can’t get out of their own way, nevermind help anyone else. They only have ONE goal and that is to win.

  6. tulip says:

    Perhaps more women should be paying attention to what Gillum says, rather than his personality. I can’t image ANYONE that wants a state tax. However, it’s not easy to put one in and if you read Amendment 5 about having majority in each part of the legislature, vote yes and that would help prevent one from being enacted.

    I’m not fond of either DeSantis or Gillum, but I HATE the thought of a state income tax even more!! Guess you know where my vote goes, even if I do have to hold my nose.

  7. Charlie says:

    Gillum is a corrupt criminal politician. On the same level as Louis Farrakhan only more racist !

  8. PC Citizen says:

    Did this Poll come from the ” Hillary for President Again ” group of thieves and cut throats ?

  9. tom dooley says:

    ha ha not over yet; aint counted my vote; wait until it’s over; “fat lady” (sorry not Rosie O Donnell) is still singing; check back on the 7th of Nov. “Jobs not not Mobs”; tired of winning yet? I’m not; my taxes are down and my income is up, (How about you compared to 2 yrs ago; before trump)? Want open borders; elect a democrat. Want antifa (aka mobs; sorry never will i go to or spend money in ([Portland Oregon] take your damn mask’s off and quit hiding wussies!!!)) supported and paid for by democrats? elect a democrat. Want lying Pocahontas aka “Chief Spreading Bull” elect a democrat. Want crooked Clinton’s again in office? (remember Bangasi?) ask our troops? elect a democrat. ” Want to abolish ICE? elect a democrat. Want to allow first responders to be killed? elect a democrat. Tired of “Political Correctness? VOTE Republican!!! May a sea of “RED” sweep over “America” MAGA!!! Antifa is a group of wussies take your mask’s off so we can see you “tough guys”? Doubt it will happen too many wussies!!! . ha ha ha!!!
    Love you wussies ha ha come get me!!! “UNCLE TED” (after trump) FOR PRESIDENT!!! We all know who “UNCLE TED” is right? Homer Simpson know’s; how come you don’t? ha ha ha !!! Get out and vote; No more “Nutty Nancy”; “Mad Maxine”; Lying “Pocahontas”(aka Elizabeth Warren); “crooked lying Hillary” (Bill “I swear under oath” Clinton) (I did not have sexual relations with that woman) ha ha DNA on her dress???
    Democrats have “nothing”? What are the democrats going to do? Raise taxes to feed the “illegals” yes i said illegals? Because that is what they are. too much to go on right now but i’m sure “real Americans ” get my point. Vote Republican!!!

  10. PCer says:

    @kar – educate yourself. There are no state income taxes nor will there be. That is not something the governor can do. People in Tallahassee love him. He has done great things in their city. Tallahassee was recently voted one of the best cities in the country to raise children.

    Blue wave!!! It is coming to clean up the red tide. Better get your flippers and swim cap.

  11. Dave says:

    Hillary had the most votes after all was said and done, Gillum will get this one, everyone I knw is showing up in droves to make sure this state goes blue, and the people get their constitutional rights back

  12. Realist says:

    I cannot believe we would ever contemplate electing a socialist.communist to be our governor. Anyone who loves living in Florida as I do had better get to the polls and elect Ron DeSantis.

  13. Christina says:

    This guy is a good egg! He has my vote!!

  14. Lynn L Tobin says:

    There are always citizens who want Free Stuff. I agree with Margaret Thatcher who famously said: “The problem with Socialism is sooner or later you run out of other people’s money!” If you care about your pocketbook, do Not vote for this candidate, who has Socialist ideas and mindset. Free Healthcare? Remember the millions of folks who came from high tax states who will leave if Gillium gets elected!

  15. Tony says:

    GOD HELP US IF GILLUM WINS!

  16. Willy Boy says:

    Responding to a “live” pollster on the phone. Who does that? Oops, who reads the comments at the end of an article. Oops, who comments? Oops, again.

  17. Richard says:

    @mausborn – So I guess you don’t file income taxes like MOST people are supposed to in this country. The new tax cut law almost doubles the amount that you don’t have to pay ANY taxes on. If that isn’t helping YOU like it is for most of the people in this country well then you are one to just complain about ANYTHING. Hey, if it makes you feel better, go vote for Gillum and then see what happens to your quality of life in Florida.

  18. jibhank says:

    Vote a straight Democratic ticket and restore some balance. Restore Congress’ role as a co-equal branch of government.

  19. I Love the Poorly Educated says:

    I will pay anyone $100 if you can directly quote where Giillum has proposed a new personal state income tax.

  20. Richard says:

    @ jibhank – Yes, vote a straight democratic ticket and you will restore more lies, corruption, hatred, deceit along with higher cost of living and working in Florida. All great benefits from the democratic party. Makes me want to jump for joy or better yet off a bridge.

  21. mausborn says:

    Can you believe Putin is on the news saying the US is no longer a world power. He also said Trump listens well and he is delighted with him. Trump and the Republicans have done us in!!!! When Trump was laughed at at the UN it showed how the world lowly rates USA lately!

    Notice how the debt is no longer a national issue to the trumpie now that donald is EXPLODING the national debt ??

    Vote straight Democratic Ticket!!!

  22. snapperhead says:

    DeSantis supported tax cuts driving the debt to an all time high. The fiscal Con-servatives are doing what they always do. Complain about the debt and deficits when out of power and when given the chance to remedy it are even worse than democrats.

    “Federal budget deficit hits 6-year-high in Donald Trump’s first fiscal year as president.

    The federal budget deficit has surged to $779 billion in fiscal 2018, its highest level in six years, as President Donald Trump’s tax cuts caused the government to borrow more heavily in order to cover its expanded spending.

    The Treasury Department said Monday the deficit climbed $113 billion from fiscal 2017. Debt will likely worsen in the coming years with the Trump administration expecting the deficit to top $1 trillion in 2019, nearly matching the $1.1 trillion imbalance from 2012.

    The deficit worsened because tax revenues are not keeping pace with government spending. The government’s fiscal year runs from October to September, unlike calendar years that begin in January. Tax revenues were essentially flat in fiscal 2018, while spending increased 3.2 percent as Congress gave more funds for military and domestic programs.

    Revenues generally tumbled after December when Trump signed into law a $1.5 trillion package of corporate and personal income tax cuts over the next decade. The tax cuts have helped cause economic growth to accelerate this year with Federal Reserve officials anticipating gains of 3.1 percent. But the Trump administration initially promised that the tax cuts would pay for themselves through stronger growth — and there is no sign so far of that happening.

    “The budget numbers make very clear that the faster growth isn’t stopping the deficit from increasing,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that advocates for lower deficits.

    Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin suggested in a statement that the underlying source of the widening deficit was growth in government spending, rather than the tax cuts.

    “Going forward the President’s economic policies that have stimulated strong economic growth, combined with proposals to cut wasteful spending, will lead America toward a sustainable financial path,” Mnuchin said.

    But William Gale, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted that the tax cuts are unlikely to generate a long-term bump in economic growth. More importantly, most estimates suggest that the deficit will worsen as spending on Social Security, Medicare and other programs increase with the aging baby boomer population.

    Gale said it’s generally better to reduce the deficit when the economy has improved, which can minimize the sting of any changes to spending and prevent steeper cuts to spending in the future.

    The cost of financing the deficit have increased following Trump’s tax cuts, with the interest charged on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising to roughly 3.15 percent from 2.46 percent at the start of the calendar year.

    “By cutting taxes in 2017 when the economy was already quite strong, Congress and the administration not only missed a golden opportunity to begin to address the fiscal problem, they actually made the problem worse,” he said.

    The Trump administration in July sharply revised higher its deficit estimates for coming years when it released its mid-session budget review.

    It projected the 2019 deficit will hit $1.09 trillion and will total $1.08 trillion in 2020 and $1.01 trillion in 2021 before once again dipping slightly below the $1 trillion mark in 2021 with a projected deficit of $952 billion.

    The only other period when the federal government has run deficits above $1 trillion was for four years from 2009 through 2011. That’s when the Obama administration was using tax cuts and increased spending, along with support for the banking system, to combat the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession, the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-budget-deficit-hits-6-year-high-in-donald-trumps-first-fiscal-year-as-president/

    Thanks Boomers….quite the burden you’ve left for future generations Enjoy your $10 a week tax cuts aholes. Worst generation in US history.

  23. mausborn says:

    GOP clowns get all exercised about phony investigations of Mayor Gillum , yet not a word for two years about Donald . DeSantis has been defending the corruption in his own party and pushing to take away healthcare for millions , now that is a real crime. DeSantis is a typical lowlife trumpie, with not enough intelligence to be a Governor. He’s playing the JAG card, the children and the wife card, all of the things he can do to make him look normal, and he may be a normal trumpie but he’s not a normal American.

  24. Richard says:

    Lot’s of “Hot Air” being expelled by the left wing here. I guess they have to blow off steam somehow. Let’s see how much “Hot Air” they will have left on November 7th.

  25. Sherry says:

    Gillum received my vote and my political contribution, my husband’s vote and the vote of all the women I know in Florida.

    Let’s help to bring HONESTY, EQUALITY, ETHICS, INTEGRITY, A HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT, GREAT HEALTH CARE, GREAT EDUCATION, FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY, etc. etc. . . . to “OUR” Country!

    VOTE BLUE!

  26. Trailer Bob says:

    Always nice to see the democrats come out and call the rest of us racists, liars, and all kinds of names. No respect shows that they really DON’T want to work together, but rather undue what has been done by the other party. I am sick of working my butt off so the lazy can sit at home and get high. Fact is, already, over 50% of hospital bills for child births are paid for by Medicaid in half the states. And that number increases every single year. (kaiser family foundation who pays for child births). It is unfortunate that there is not a course that voters must pass before they can vote. I hardly ever vote a straight republican line, because I use my brain and the issues and how they will affect me. Really don’t need a twenty year old to shape our country.

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