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Women and Independents Keep Bill Nelson Ahead of Rick Scott By 6 Points in Latest Poll

| October 22, 2018

Unmoved by Michael: Sen. Bill nelson remains comfortably ahead of Gov. Rick Scott in the latest polling by Quinnipiac University. (© FlaglerLive)

Unmoved by Michael: Sen. Bill nelson remains comfortably ahead of Gov. Rick Scott in the latest polling by Quinnipiac University. (© FlaglerLive)

Sen. Bill Nelson, drawing much higher favorability ratings and strong support from independents–key to all statewide races in Florida–is maintaining a comfortable 52-46 percent advantage over Gov. Rick Scott in the race for U.S. Senate, according to the latest Quinnipiac Poll.


The poll was conducted after Hurricane Michael swept through the Florida Panhandle. Before the storm, Scott was trailing Nelson 46 to 53 percent. Scott played an especially visible role during the storm in hopes of translating the extra PR into better polling numbers. The electoral strategy appears to have had no effect, with only 2 percent of Florida likely voters still undecided and 4 percent of those who name a candidate saying they might change their mind in the next 15 days.

Nelson is winning the key independent vote 60-38 and women 59-39. He has a favorability rating of 51-41, compared to Scott’s favorability of 45. His unfavorability rating is at 50.

“The Florida race is one of a handful of contests around the country that will decide control of the U.S. Senate. Sen. Bill Nelson and Gov. Rick Scott have spent so many millions of dollars on television ads it is almost impossible to avoid seeing them,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “At this point, Sen. Nelson’s six-point overall lead is built on his large margin among independent voters, 60 – 38 percent. If that margin holds up, the senator will be difficult to beat. Moreover, Sen. Nelson’s 20-point advantage among women is twice Gov. Scott’s 10-point edge among men.”

The Quinnipiac Poll is among the better regarded in the field, garnering an A minus from FiveThirtyEight. Four of five polls have shown Nelson ahead since the end of September, with just one poll showing Scott ahead (by one point) and the Real Clear Politics average placing nelson 2.4 points ahead of Scott. Scott, however, is well known for unleashing a surge of spending late in his races, as he’s done in his two races for governor, winning each by a single point. Still, both his gubernatorial races were against less well-known opponents. He’s never faced a well-liked incumbent. Nelson is completing his third term.

In addition to independents and women, Nelson is drawing strength from black and Hispanic voters. Nelson leads 94-3 percent among black voters and 59-39 percent among Hispanic voter.

“Nelson is just better liked. Florida likely voters view him favorably by 10 percentage points, and see Gov. Scott unfavorably by five points,” Brown said.

Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a negative 46-51 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 44-54 percent job approval rating September 25.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters From Oct. 17-21, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.

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12 Responses for “Women and Independents Keep Bill Nelson Ahead of Rick Scott By 6 Points in Latest Poll”

  1. MR G says:

    yea & Hillary was a shoe in for president polls polls polls hahahahhaaa

  2. Veteran says:

    Too bad. Nelson has been in politics for 46 years. He does nothing except what Schumer tells him. If Florida voters are that stupid, so be it.

  3. Mark says:

    Is this one of those polls that had hillary as a shoe-in?

  4. Russell S says:

    In real life, women wouldn’t like him as he is an “Empty Suit” who follows along. Not A Leader, a “Follower”

  5. Richard says:

    If you really believe in the accuracy of polls then you are a fool. How were the polls looking for Hillary back in October & November 2016? You guessed it, they weren’t even CLOSE. They had Hillary winning by a landslide BUT we all know what the final outcome was. Polls are a joke, don’t believe them. Get out and VOTE for the person of your choice but I hope you will vote republican. The liberal left democrats have only one message, protest by getting into peoples faces. So if YOU want to be part of the MOB then vote democrat.

  6. Dave says:

    Polls had the majority votes for Hillary,which she did win the popular vote, more votes overall than the competition. Blue is a good look for Florida. I have met the people there and blue would benefit Florida residents very well.

  7. palmcoaster says:

    Sure I would vote always Nelson versus Scott. No way Scott. Look at the contamination of FL under him!

  8. Michael Cocchiola says:

    To the liberal/independent mob…we love you! Rise up and surround the red tide. Out (blue) wave, out think and out vote Republicans. Make sanity and truth prevail. Bring honesty and integrity back to American politics. Liberals and independents…this is our chance to fight back against the embarrassment that infects the White House. And we do it one vote, one precinct, one candidate and one city at a time. That way it lasts beyond the next election. It’s a movement…it’s a wave!

  9. David Dennison says:

    Many people don’t know this but Nelson is a Muslim, loves MS 13, would like nothing better to turn Floriduh into Venezuela. Many people who know the best words tell me rocket man Nelson was with Lee Harvey Oswald days before the assassination of JFK. My friend Jimmy said Nelson and Lyin’ Hillary supplied the terrorists in the Benghazi attacks with Russian uranium. It’s true…Believe me.

  10. Sherry says:

    LOL! David Dennison. . . just be very careful with your sarcasm. . . sad to say, there are many of the FOX cult here would would actually believe you. LOL!

  11. Agkistrodon says:

    Keep telling Yourself that. No matter how many times you say it, does NOT make it so. But you go on and keep thinking that.

  12. gmath55 says:

    What Nelson does nothing? He made a photo op for hurricane Michael and left!

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