By Jeff Brandes
Everyone is talking about property taxes. Almost nobody is talking about power.
That’s strange because power, not taxes, is what this debate is really about. The sales pitch is simple: property taxes are unpopular, homeowners are angry, government has grown, and cutting tax bills will provide relief. Who doesn’t like that? But there is a difference between cutting taxes and changing who controls government. Florida is not debating a tax cut. Florida is debating a fundamental redesign of how local government is financed.
For more than half a century, Florida has embraced home rule. The idea was simple: Local communities should make local decisions. If a city council spends too much, voters can replace it. If a county commission raises taxes, voters can replace it. The people making spending decisions are accountable to the people paying the bills. That system is imperfect, but it is transparent. If your local government fails, you know exactly where to direct your frustration and exactly who to vote against.
Now imagine a different system. Imagine counties and cities that can no longer fund themselves. Imagine local officials traveling to Tallahassee not to seek a grant for a new project, but to keep deputies on patrol, firefighters in stations, and ambulances on the road. At that point, who is really running local government? The answer is not the county commission. The answer is not the city council.
The answer is whoever controls the money.
That is the part nobody wants to discuss. Property taxes are not simply a revenue source. They are the mechanism that allows local governments to govern themselves. Remove enough of that revenue and local governments do not disappear. They become dependent. And dependency changes behavior. A business dependent on one customer changes its behavior. A nonprofit dependent on one donor changes its behavior. A county dependent on Tallahassee changes its behavior. The money moves. The incentives move. The accountability moves. And eventually, the power moves.
There is an irony here that should give conservatives pause. A proposal intended to shrink government could ultimately centralize it. When counties and cities become financially dependent on Tallahassee, the governor effectively becomes the mayor of communities he was never elected to run. Imagine a future governor deciding which counties receive funding for deputies, which cities receive support for fire services, and which communities must wait. Local government becomes less local. Home rule becomes a slogan instead of a governing principle.
Supporters frame this debate as a battle between taxpayers and government. That is the wrong framework. The real question is whether Florida wants independent local governments or dependent local governments. Because independent local government means paying your own bills.
The numbers involved are staggering. Property taxes generate tens of billions of dollars each year for local governments. State economists have modeled scenarios creating roughly an $18.3 billion hole. Municipal governments receive approximately 43 percent of their general fund revenue from property taxes. Property taxes account for roughly 79 percent of municipal tax revenue. Those are not trimming-around-the-edges numbers. Those are rebuild-the-engine-while-the-plane-is-flying numbers. Yet much of the public discussion proceeds as though this is simply a tax cut. It isn’t. It is one of the largest transfers of financial responsibility in modern Florida history.
Maybe it works. Maybe local governments become dramatically more efficient. Maybe new revenue sources emerge. Maybe the state permanently assumes a larger role. But if that’s the plan, let’s be honest enough to say so. What we should not do is pretend the consequences stop at the property tax bill.
State economists are already projecting structural deficits beginning in fiscal year 2027-28 and growing in the years that follow. If Florida itself is heading toward tighter budgets, is this really the moment to shift even greater responsibility for local government onto the state? Florida may be creating a future where local governments are increasingly dependent on a state government that is itself under growing fiscal pressure.
Then there are the people largely missing from this conversation. Nearly one-third of Floridians rent their homes. If local governments replace property taxes with higher fees, assessments, utility taxes, sales taxes, or state transfers, renters will still pay. Businesses will still pay. Consumers will still pay. The bill does not disappear. It changes addresses.
Milton Friedman often reminded people that government has no money of its own. Every dollar government spends comes from somebody else. That remains true today. The question is not whether Floridians will pay for local government. The question is how. And more importantly, who will decide.
That is the blast radius nobody is talking about.
Because once the dust settles, Floridians may discover they did not merely change a tax system. They changed the balance of power between local communities and the state itself. And unlike a tax bill, that is a change that will be far harder to reverse.
Jeff Brandes is President of the Florida Policy Project, a nonpartisan public policy research organization focused on Florida’s biggest challenges, including affordability, housing, transportation, and insurance. He served for 12 years in the Florida Legislature, including service in both the Florida House and Senate. This article first appeared in the Florida Trident.
Pogo says
God bless Jeff Brandes. This should be proclaimed everywhere possible.
Ray W. says
Hello Pogo.
A Tampa Bay Times reporter writes that those counties with the highest concentration of homesteaded properties, like Flagler, Sumter, and Hernando, will suffer the most should the measure come to fruition. In that story, Brandes is quoted as labeling the measure an “extinction” event for the most impacted of Florida counties.
Ed Danko, former Vice-Mayor PC says
DON’T FALL FOR LIBERAL SCARE TACTICS! I fully support this amendment. As the former Vice-Mayor of Palm Coast I know first hand how our elected officials and overpaid bureaucrats waste our hard earned money. Time for them to finally do what we all do at home, which is manage our money responsibly, tighten our belts, and a lot of times simply do without. No more “Tax & Spend” and no more foolish “Pet Projects” for political friends! VOTE YES!
The dude says
Yes yes… of course…
Why let local officials waste our tax money when we can let Meatball Ron and his toadies in Tallahassee waste it?
After all flying immigrants from Texas to other states on chartered planes, Meatball’s wife’s charities, placing allies into overpriced positions on University boards, book burnings, and “Alligator Alcatraz’s” all cost money…
Speaking of MAGA toadies and wasted money… didn’t you vote yourself a raise liddle Eddie?
Laurel says
No, I will vote “NO!”
“Home rule in Florida allows local governments to exercise self-governance and make decisions on local matters without state interference. This concept empowers municipalities to manage their own affairs, including taxation and local services, reflecting the will of their residents.”
-Search Assist, scholarship.stu.edu, fl-palmsprings.civicplus.com
Republican politicians have been after home rule for several years now. If I were to guess, I’d say corporations are behind this. AirBnB, for one, has tried to demolish home rule, as they cry that it’s hard on their world wide corporate business to have to comply to local ordinances, and that all of the state should be under one state rule.
We need to stop bending a knee to the corporate world. Dania Beach is not the same as Tallahassee, which is not the same as Marco Island, which is not the same as Melbourne, which is not the same as Lake City, which is not the same as Tarpon Springs, which is not the same as Palm Coast, and so on. Each area has different needs, different eco systems and different problems to tackle. We’re not one homogenous state. We are independent.
Don’t fall for it. I is a manipulation of the masses.
Connie says
Lord save us from the hypocrisy of “former vice mayors” who are intimidated by strong, intelligent women.
Poor little RINO Eddie Danko! He just needs some attention?
Who contributed to your campaign, Eddie?
Mullins. Seagate. Belsche.
Little Eddie would’ve fallen all over himself to have gotten a contribution from someone like ICI.
…and don’t forget that Stanko Danko put his hand in the taxpayer “cookie jar” to vote himself a raise!
Run along, little Eddie, we all know why you try to over compensate for something…
Skibum says
Since Ed Danko supports this, that is a HUGE reason to VOTE NO!!!
Another good reason not to support such a foolish scheme? I have first-hand experience regarding the extremely negative, long-term affects of statewide measures like this when CA put Prop 13 on the ballot back in the 70s. It limited property tax increases to a maximum of 1% per year. Sounds like a good idea, right?
On election day, it was overwhelmingly approved by voters who had no idea the severe impacts that would be forthcoming. Local governments throughout the state were forced to cut services, not hire police officers, deputy sheriffs and firefighters when vacancies occurred. Layoffs happened. Replacement equipment for law enforcement agencies and fire departments could not be purchased when needed. Public sector employees, including emergency service workers could not get raises. Many decided that leaving the state to seek employment elsewhere was their best option, creating even more vacancies that were difficult, if not impossible to get funding for. The cascade effect multiplied.
Don’t fall for lies and misrepresentations from republi-cons, especially those in Tallahassee who know and are counting on this insane proposal to pass because not a single penny will be lost from the state treasury… ONLY local governments will suffer the drastic consequences unless they find a way to implement some alternative taxing structure to pay for services lost due to insufficient local revenue.
Beware of unintended consequences of not well thought out schemes such as this. All of the insurance corporations who provide homeowner insurance policies in this state use multiple criteria to determine the price of offering policies to consumers. One very important criteria is fire safety. If the city of Palm Coast or the county loses firefighters and the average response time increases, that is a heightened risk for insurers. They update risk assessments to protect their bottom line, especially when circumstances change. Like a new statewide law exactly like what is being proposed that has the very real potential to hamper local fire protection services. If they determine there is an enhanced risk and raise homeowner insurance rates for everyone, will there be any $ savings at all for consumers? Those higher insurance premiums could wipe out any perceived advantages that homeowners think they could save by voting yes and cutting property taxes.
Don’t be foolish and cut off your noses to spite your faces! Don’t listen to Ed Danko, the very same person who was so disliked and made such poor decisions that he is no longer in a position to cause harm to local residents and business owners.
Don’t just say no, say HELL NO!!!
Jim says
I recall you called for tax cuts constantly when you were on the council. But I don’t recall you ever proposing specific programs, positions or anything else. Anybody can cheerlead tax cutting. Who doesn’t want to see lower taxes? But if all you do is cheerlead, you’re not contributing to the betterment of the community. That’s a big reason why you are no longer in local government.
That said, as for me and many Palm Coasters, the fact that you support this proposal is more than enough for me to conclude it is truly not in the best interests of any citizen of this state.
And, along with Pogo, I also want to commend Mr. Brandes for his dissection of what is at state here. This is not in our best interests. It will not save anyone a penny in taxes. In fact, over time, I fully expect we’ll all be paying more taxes than we are now. Vote NO.
JC says
Do you have a life besides always coming on FlaglerLive and bitch? No one cares that you were a former Vice-Mayor who types like a boomer in all caps.
YankeeExPat says
This is a total bait and switch campaign by R. Gov. Ron DeSantis and the F.L/ GOP.
Yes your property taxes may be reduced or even go away , but your Insurance companies, ( ” for which the state has no viable control of ” ) with their inhouse Actuaries will point to the fact that the local municipality you live in is underfunded for Fire , Public safety. Roads and road illumination and will determine that they can penalize homeowners accordingly as a risk factor .
Take a look at your current policy and you will see that a a dwellings proximity to the nearest Hydrant is already determinate for risk for your current policy.
RobdaSlob says
You are funny Ed. Jeff Brandes is not a progressive activist nor a Democratic politician. He’s a former Republican state senator from Pinellas County. I generally have found his comments to be somewhat independent-minded, yet policy-focused conservative. Served in the Army including combat in Iraq.
Brandes at times has been pro-property tax relief. What I take from this article as his concern is there is a lack of specificity in the property tax proposal for how to address the funding shortfall at the local level. As a result it could have unintended consequences.
Kind of like general sweeping comments about the wasteful local government that have a lack of specificity….
Tired of it says
Just knowing that you support this makes me say no.
Deborah Coffey says
Right. And 9 people headed for living under a bridge agree with you. Incredible.
Easywin says
This is such a low IQ take. Local governments will still have funding. We have expanded the Homestead exemption before and the world didn’t end. The current homestead is extremely outdated compared to home values and inflation pressures. He is straw manning at best with no alternative solution. Local govs are never held accountable because they have a monopoly on power.
The dude says
“Low IQ”
There’s your sign.
Just don’t call it a cult… ok?
Fml says
Will they have a monopoly when the have to wait for their “grant money” as Desantis explained yesterday. Shortfalls will be dealt with by local goats waiting to hear from state on whether grant money is available.
NJ says
Remember, Palm Coast is a 90%/10% City and that is WHY the Mayor wanted to STOP all Building Permits for a short time! The Time is NOW for a Total REVIEW of the Planning of Palm Coast’s Future!
Joe D says
Great article….this referendum IS about who controls the money…and if this tax referendum passes…Tallahassee (and whomever sits in the Governor’s Mansion) will control much more of who gets the money for projects your City and Country can’t afford on its own. REMEMBER, just a short time ago when FORMER PALM COAST “resident” Ron DeSantis, cut out most of the money the LEGISLATURE had approved for Flagler County….pretty much without explanation. Compared to other Counties. FLAGLER REALLY GOT THE SHORT END OF THE STICK!! How would you like financial decisions about funding projects in Flagler to ALWAYS be determined on who is “FRIENDS” with the sitting Governor at the time…I certainly wouldn’t!
People are going to vote for this, and THINK this is free money. I’m not a particular fan of Mike Norris, but as ridiculous as his AI enhanced AUSTERITY BUDGET PROPOSAL seems now…THINK ABOUT IT!!! Look at what a PASSIONLESS “strictly by the numbers” computerized budget cutback system would do. Of course it’s only a TEMPLATE…but it SHOULD get people THINKING…as if ANYONE IS REALLY “Thinking” these days ( in my opinion)…. do you want (even a modified) “austerity” budget?! Look at what you would be LOSING! If that trade off in services or shifting of payment to a FEE based system to pay for things, then voting for this referendum is for you… but if you look deeper… you might find that voting for this referendum as a “tax cut” is going to be coming back to bite us in less than 3 years…but it will be TOO LATE THEN!
I know I (probably) will survive a cut ( even though I have not been living here long enough to qualify for the cut). I’m of the SELF RELIANT generation. I don’t spend money on FRILLS. I try to plan ahead ( storms, illnesses, other emergencies)…so I don’t have much strain on City/County funded services, but the cuts for some more vulnerable people…?
What’s that old saying and song melody “You don’t know what you ‘got’ ‘til it’s GONE!”
David T Schaefer says
Attention Danko that is another Trumper Humper comment.
George Meegan says
Property tax monies are just shifted from Homesteaders to non Homesteaders as total collected is the same.
Jay Tomm says
LOL…Okay…………………
Us sane people will move out of FL once that state income tax gets approved. You KNOW it will be proposed if this passes after a year or so in.
Al says
It’s always fire and police that will be cut, never the staff of the politicians. This is always the scare tactic and I hope it doesn’t work. All of a sudden renters are on the top of their list, screw the homeowners that carry most of the load. How many people can go into the office and tell the boss that they’re demanding a pay raise, when the boss says no they just take more money anyways. We all have to balance our budgets at home and it’s time the politicians learn to do the same. If they can’t or refuse then they should go find a more suitable line of work.
JimboXYZ says
As I understand the new property tax legislation Schools will remain funded thru property taxes. We probably see higher millage rates adopted since the homestead exemptions will increase ? I see (predict) that everything else that was property tax, becomes a fee like the water utility bill we get every month for police, fire, city & residential roads. That’s where inflation will apply and what was a annual property tax bill will be collected monthly & will increase as it always has. Either way Cost of Living is going to increase because Westard Expansion is 22K new residential & 6-8K is going to happen in Bunnell. Thank Biden for tat sand bag. The soft landing is crashing under Trump-Vance. Home prices doubled under Biden-Harris, so did the doubling up statewide of property taxes. And the thing is, while the Vision of 2050 was growth, that tax base is 28-30K residential housing units short of actually having a tax base to pay for itself. Bidenomics continues to be the dark cloud over the economics of the USA. Flagler County isn’t the only county in FL or even USA facing this economic catastrophe. There’s really no escaping the inevitable of inflationary Biden-Harris. Trump-Vance would’ve had to have deflation, stagflation was the best we could hope for to avoid an economic collapse. Part of me wants to support this new direction, another part of me wants to reject the offer, thanks, but no thanks. But the uncertainty of the economic models tells me that we’re going to get an end run on the current property tax model that still is an unaffordable cost of living for housing & services.
What I see, the slam dunk budgeting process that Flagler County has had for an annual process will need to be revamped. Line items will need to transfer from property tax millage rates to the utility bill millage rates. Sales tax discussions will need to be revisited to cover the shortages that are driving the legislative changes. It’s like anything the governments or corporations ever came at us with. It will cost more, they will sell it as improved service and it’ll be the same sun rising & setting every day for life on planet Earth that it always was. Only that with more people will have more crime & pollution, so expect that the quality of life is worse for anything man-made for those economic & financial hardship crisis. Welcome to Alfinville/Bidenville, FL. the inherited mess just gets worse in Flagler County.
Leila says
This may be the best explanation I have read about this proposed legislation, that it ends Home Rule, which is true. Small wonder our state reps are reluctant to discuss this in greater detail. Last night, mine avoided the topic like the plague, saying, “The voters are smart enough to figure this out.” Comforting? Not.
Ed P says
Secondary homes, vacation rentals, commercial businesses, and vacant lots do not qualify for any homestead exemptions.
Residential parcels
Palm Coast. -75.3% homesteaded. 24.7 non homesteaded. ~40,700 parcels
Flagler Beach – 61.3% homesteaded 38.7% non homesteaded ~3200 parcels
Bunnell -76% homesteaded. 24.0% non homesteaded ~1120 parcels
Beverly Beach -70% homesteaded 30% non homesteaded. ~335 parcels
Unincorporated -65% homesteaded 35% non homesteaded. ~30,000 parcels
There are ~87,000 total parcels including commercial/agricultural parcels.
NON HOMESTEADED parcels pay ~64% of all property taxes. (Important)
The proposal will only reduce the maximum annual increase on these same properties from a possible 10% down to 5% annual increase. Their % of contributions will increase.
Residential parcels will see some sort of reduction.
2027. Flagler County ~25 million. Palm Coast ~10 million
2028 Flagler County~ 60 million. Palm Coast ~23 million
Estimated
Average homeowner savings 2027
Unincorporated $650. Palm Coast $410
2028
Unincorporated $1300. Palm Coast $820
These amounts should not put the cities or county out of business. It will prove challenging and difficult. Not impossible.
Lost revenues will be attempted to be replaced elsewhere.
Mike Cocchiola says
Forget about what state Republicans tell you. This is a power grab by House and Senate Republicans. They will own the bank and tell local governments what they can and cannot do. Accountability will shift away from voters and become diffused and ineffective at the state level. Who actually believes that state politicians will have local interests in mind when making budget decisions?
We’re being manipulated out of the basic tenets of our democracy. First by Trump and now by DeSantis. Vote NO in November.
Darin says
HOMEOWNERS NEED RELIEF FROM PROPERTY TAXES!!! PERIOD!!! THEY HAVE BEEN RAISING PROPERTY TAXES EVERY SINGLE YEAR!! ALMOST UNAFFORDABLE!! DOES THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT CARE??? NO!! THE EDUCATED HOMEOWNERS WILL VOTE YES!!!!!
Betty says
I personally am sick and tired of being told that our city government, elected by residents, listen to what we (the residents) want. You can present a valid argument and have some support behind your statements and they will still vote however they want. My city has been asked repeatedly (by a sitting commissioner) about where the money money budgeted for certain items went after the budgeted item was not purchased – example: they asked for a new vehicle for a city department to be budgeted and it was approved. When the budgeted vehicle was not purchased, the monies set aside for that purchase rolls over into the general fund to be spent on whatever they decide. It is done year after year after year. It is wrong, especially when they cannot account for what those specific monies were used for at a later date. Time to cut off the money faucet, and to stop careless spending!
Stephen Woodin says
ONCE AGAIN, the “liberal rag” who claims to be news, attempts scare tactics. Kiss the asses of any local politicians lately?
Dipsh!t!
JC says
Did you even read the article?
Laurel says
A future grift victim.
Al says
Why does every comment from the left start with some name calling of Trump or DeSantis. Is it possible to comment without all the vitriol in the statement. I guess when you are losing the only resort is name calling. How does it go the referee is a bum or cheater, it’s not that my team is no good or nonproductive.
Skibum says
As the saying goes, when someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time! Does that answer your question?