By Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy
Since the 1980s, Super Tuesday has been one of the most important dates in the American presidential campaign: about one third of the delegates were awarded to the presidential candidates in each party. There was very little suspense as to who the winners would be this year: both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have been the frontrunners and have shown commanding leads in the polls, despite their low popularity.
The ongoing perception of a “stolen” election
Never before has a non-incumbent GOP candidate enjoyed such a lead at this point of the campaign, not even George W. Bush in 2000. One reason may be that Donald Trump is not really a non-incumbent. More importantly, he is seen by a majority of his base as the only legitimate president. Two thirds of Republican voters (and nearly 3 in 10 Americans) continue to believe that the 2020 election was stolen from him, and that Biden was not lawfully elected. In fact, this “election denialism” is one of the major differences between those who support Trump and those who voted for his rival, Nikki Haley. According to them, “massive” fraud occurred in certain states (fake voters, rigged voting machines, etc.) with the blessing of election officials and unscrupulous judges, thus tipping the contest.
Of course, there is no evidence of fraud that could have changed the outcome, and all the lawsuits challenging the results have been lost after hearings on the merits or dismissed as moot – even by judges he hand-picked.
A perfect martyr
More than his conviction of sexual assault – in truth a rape – and his multiple indictments, Donald Trump’s most grievous fault has been his attempt at obstructing the democratic transfer of power by encouraging his supporters to violently oppose the certification of the election in 2021, and his continuous false claim that he, in fact, won in 2020.
Trump’s diehard supporters once again see him as the victim of a “witch hunt”, just as they did during the two impeachments he faced – it’s because he was taking on a “corrupt system”, they believe. Trump has used his legal troubles to raise millions of dollars, a large part of which has gone to pay his defence lawyers rather than fund his presidential campaign. Despite this, he has risen in the Republican primaries and could well become the GOP’s candidate in the November 2024 election.
So how can we explain that tens of millions of Americans continue to adhere to this narrative of the stolen election, despite numerous studies demonstrating its utter falsehood?
Tracing the roots of political paranoia
The myth of the stolen election is a mass conspiracy belief, a type of unverified counter-narrative that questions well-established facts and relies instead on the idea that powerful and malevolent actors are operating in the shadows. What characterises the United States is not necessarily that its population is more gullible than others, but rather that a large part of its political and media class is willing to accept, exploit, and organise conspiracy thinking for its benefit.
In a landmark 1964 essay published in Harper’s Magazine, “The Paranoid Style in American Politics”, historian Richard Hofstadter famously explored the American passion for conspiracy, focusing on the right’s obsession with a supposed communist conspiracy during the McCarthy era. At that time, the Christian right merged with nationalism, becoming a powerful force opposing the supposedly godless communist bloc. In the 1970s, the political narrative of a universal struggle between Good and Evil became an essential theme in presidential speeches, particularly those by Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.
The “enemy within” and the “culture war”
With the end of the Cold War in 1991, this binary narrative was adapted to the “culture war”, pitting religious fundamentalists against progressives on moral and societal issues such as abortion and sexuality. It is a narrative of decline that identifies any political opposition as an “enemy” jeopardising the moral foundations of the nation.
This narrative was fuelled by a sense of powerlessness and humiliation that followed the September 11, 2001, attacks. Then came the 2008 financial crisis and two decades of the “war on terror” without anything like a tangible victory. As the country’s demographic makeup evolved, racial resentment grew and conspiracy thinking with it, as embodied by the narrative of the “Great Replacement”. The Covid crisis heightened the distrust of government. The “Deep State” was born, perceived as literally demonic.
The politicisation of religion reached its peak with Donald Trump, who used religious language more than any other president. Unlike his predecessors, he explicitly associated American identity with Christianity. He emphasised themes of Christian nationalism, highly popular among the white evangelicals he courted. It is within this religious group that adherence to the myth of the “stolen” election is the strongest.
Donald Trump: a “saviour” who’s both godless and lawless
The irony of Trump courting evangelicals is that Trump himself is far from religious. His xenophobic slurs against immigrants, contempt for veterans, calls for violence against political opponents, mockery of a disabled journalist, and a glaring lack of religious culture are fundamentally incompatible with Christian ethics. In speeches and interviews, he frequently highlights extremist groups, such as the Proud Boys and conspiracists such as QAnon believers.
The link between conspiracy theories and white Christian nationalism is well documented, most recently regarding topics such as vaccines or climate change. Evangelicals “rationalise” the election lie by comparing Trump to Cyrus, a historical Persian king who, in the Old Testament (Isaiah), did not worship the god of Israel but is portrayed as an instrument used by God to deliver the Jewish people.
How the Capitol attack comforted evangelists’ views
These beliefs stem from a “premillennialist” interpretation of the Book of Revelation, adopted by a majority of evangelicals (63%) who believe that humanity is currently experiencing the “End Times”.
This worldview was embodied by the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. It gave Republican leaders a unique opportunity to condemn Donald Trump in an impeachment trial that could have ended his political ambitions. Despite the stakes, neither the Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, nor the influential Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, voted for impeachment. Yet both acknowledged that Trump was “morally responsible” for the violence.
As the Republican Party did during Trump’s first impeachment trial and with every one of his innumerable lies, including during the Covid crisis, it once again showed itself willing to sacrifice democracy itself on the altar of political ambition.
The result is that the election lie has become the norm and now a loyalty test within the party. A vast majority of new congressional members in 2022 have in turn cast doubt on the 2020 results. When Kevin McCarthy proved to be insufficiently loyal to Trump, he was replaced as Speaker of the House by Mike Johnson, a Christian nationalist and staunch election denier.
A widespread lie financed by powerful groups
This lie is not the democratic and populist expression of grassroots anti-elitism. It is fuelled by national organisations that are funded by some of the country’s wealthiest conservatives. New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice has identified several of these groups, including the Election Integrity Project California, FreedomWorks, or the Honest Elections Project, whose names belie their intentions.
Among these groups, the Federalist Society, which promoted the appointment of the most conservative members to the Supreme Court, has led the attack against the Voting Rights Act (a 1965 law prohibiting racial discrimination in voting).
The role of the Heritage Foundation is also notable.
One of the most powerful and influential conservative organisations, it has used the spectre of electoral fraud as a pretext for removing voters from voting lists. One of its founders, Paul Weyrich, declared in 1980:
“I don’t want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of people, they never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.”
Add to this an overt strategy of media disinformation used by Trump and his allies, summarised by Steve Bannon, the former leader of Breitbart News and former advisor to Donald Trump: “Flood the zone with shit”. The point is simply to overwhelm the press and the public with so much false information and disinformation that distinguishing truth from lies becomes too challenging, if not impossible.
All of this is, of course, amplified by acute political polarisation rooted in social identity. This is manifested geographically, where partisan preferences are correlated with population density – urban versus rural, to simplify. Republicans who believe in the myth of a stolen election cannot believe that Joe Biden could have been elected by a majority because no one around them voted Democrat, after all.
This physical polarisation is reinforced by media polarisation that creates a true informational bubble. Thus, a majority of Republicans trust only Fox News and far-right television channels like One American News, whose primetime hosts have endorsed lies even they themselves don’t believe about electoral fraud. These were then amplified by social networks.
Will history repeat itself next November?
Questioning electoral results is a constant theme for Donald Trump. In 2012, he called Barack Obama’s re-election a “total sham and a travesty”, adding that “we are not a democracy” and that it would be necessary to “march on Washington” and stop what he claimed was a “travesty”. In 2016, he contested, with no evidence whatsoever, the results of the Iowa caucus and the popular vote won by Hillary Clinton, attributing it to “millions of illegal votes”.
The difference between 2020 and today is that Donald Trump is no longer a political curiosity. His voice is now heard and believed by millions of citizens. Thus, almost a quarter of US citizens (23%) say that they would be willing to use violence to “save the country.” Regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election, there is cause for concern. Donald Trump has refused to commit to accepting the 2024 election results if it is not in his favour. And his followers are once again ready to follow his words of refusal, turning them into action.
Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy is Assistant lecturer at CY Cergy Paris Université.
Pogo says
@Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy
That checks out. Thank you.
And reminds me…
“…the cause of freedom has in it a recuperative power and virtue which can draw from misfortune new hope and new strength. If ever there was a time when men and women who cherish the ideals of the founders of the British and American Constitutions should take earnest counsel with one another, that time is now…”
— From Churchill, Into Battle (London: Cassell, 1941)
https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/speeches/1930-1938-the-wilderness/the-defence-of-freedom-and-peace-the-lights-are-going-out/
marlee says
….and the 2020 election ‘Big Lie’ lives on! It is so tiring to realize that.
Despite…..exhaustive fact checks and no evidence of voter fraud.
I guess those who believe that, don’t believe in facts.
Jackson says
The 2-party, multiparty system, is healthy for democracy. But we must draw the line at fraud etc. that is antithetical to the US Constitution. The GOP is largely no longer the “Loyal Opposition”. GOP support for DT tells us that much & more. At the same time, Dems should be more aggressive.
To be clear, our multiparty system has more than 2 parties of significance. Significant enough to impact elections and sway them to either one of the two major parties. It’s also clear that one of the major parties, the GOP, falls very short in its’ commitment to upholding the US Constitution. That is a crisis of our time and only a vigilant democracy can rise to the challenge.
dave says
No those people would rather listen to a narcissistic dictator and become a parasite on his butt and do whatever he tells them to do. I guess they would all drink the kool aid if he told them it would heal them.
JW says
Great article by a European!
This reminds me that American education is far inferior compared to the rest of the world!
Our basic education (K-12) has been and still is being hollowed out over time. People don’t learn to THINK anymore.
No civics to speak of, no history to speak of, no science, one language only and now book banning etc. This is not only embarrassing, it is a result of America having enriched itself to the point where people become lazy and enjoy entertainment more than educating themselves on issues like STOLEN ELECTIONS. Most have just no clue and are being exploited by our politicians. Trump has stated: he likes less educated people! Social networks on smart phones show this: go to a restaurant and many people can’t relax but have to check their phone constantly; e.g. a family of four should talk to each other, but they don’t know what to talk about.
I am pessimistic about the future of America because it may be the leader in the world’s self destruction (The End Times) by evangelical’s beliefs: see Viala-Gaudefroy above. Many recent books point to same thing: America is on its way to become a failed state.
This article should be an eye opener for all before it is too late.
Alex says
You have to be an idiot to think the election was stolen when over and over again it has never been proven. And there are several individuals or testified they lied to help Donald have people think it was, some of those people have been charged. Donald believes if you constantly say something over and over eventually people will believe it and that is what he did with this lie. He read that in the Hitler books he read. It is a form of brain washing and I can’t believe there are that many stupid people out there that believe his propaganda. Are you going to be an idiot to open you check book and send him money now because as you have heard he is dirt poor and wants anyone and everyone to send him money while he goes out and plays golf every day.
Sorry but my parents raised me to be smarter then believe a con man like him.
The dude says
Because they’re just flat out stupid. That’s why.
Conspiracy minded old cranks that used to have to gather together in each other’s basements as the john birch society, now are mainstream MAGA and GOP.
Chemtrails, microchips in trump’s vaccine, the big lie, jewish space lasers, california needs to rake it’s forests, a single story pizza joint in baltimore allows Hillary Clinton to kill children in their basement and drink the blood… I could go on and on and on…
But the bottom line is the fact that MAGAts are just flat out stupid, sometimes it’s naturally occurring stupidity, sometimes it’s willful stupidity, but it’s stupidity nonetheless.
Just don’t call it a cult… ok?
Just a thought says
And they call us sheep.
Ben Hogarth says
Unfortunately, there is (and has always been) a direct correlation between lower cognitive “intelligence” (formal education, literacy level, etc.) and support for Donald Trump & “The Big Lie” surrounding the 2020 election. The lower the intelligence of an individual, the higher probability they will believe in the lie and support the would-be dictator. But sociologists have already made these correlations and they aren’t as disturbing as the ones that psychologists are now making. Not only does a lower intelligence make you more likely to buy into GOP schemes and rhetoric, but so does the character of one’s mental health – particularly affinity for sociopathy and psychopathy (as now referred to as Antisocial Personality Disorder). We are seeing a dramatic realignment of American politics along not only intelligence boundaries, but general empathy and social conditioning boundaries as well. It’s rather terrifying.
And I think this is the biggest point of frustration and confusion for those of us “on the other side” of the line. Many of us would find ways to “reason” and “find commonality” with those on “right.” This is folly. The political realignment now largely abides by an idea of the rational vs the irrational. Those who believe they can and should adapt themselves to their environments and the world around them… and those who believe the world around them should be made to adapt to THEM. The Trumper’s on the “right” want a society where they can force others to live how they believe people SHOULD live their lives. They want to force you to go to THEIR church, swear allegiance to THEIR leaders and flags, and pray to THEIR gods and idols. They also believe that to live a life doing anything but is not worth living. If they can’t “have their way” over the whole of American society, then there should be no democracy and American society. These people have made a conscious choice that people on the “left” have yet to realize – the conservatives of America have absolutely no desire or intention of continuing to coexist with us in harmony. And the sooner we recognize what that means, the better prepared we will be for the inevitable.
Just ask any historian.
Michael J Cocchiola says
Political paranoia surely describes the MAGA Party (formerly the GOP/Republican). Eighty percent of the new MAGA Party is addicted to fallacies and conspiracies. They now define treachery, terrorism and traitorous.
I question the motives and courage of the other 20% who may still have working brain cells but refuse to use them by speaking out against the MAGA threat to America.
Jim says
Dave, actually it’s bleach that he encourages as a remedy…..
Sam says
I believe that there was a bit of Voter Fraud. Mostly because, why would anyone really want to vote for Biden, he’s a Shmuck. Don’t get me Wrong, Trump is a pompous arrogant prick that is equally unfit for office. In fact id like to point out because you said how horrible Americans are educated, we send trillions of dollars over seas to financially support other countries instead of taking care of our own country and improving the living situation for Americans. We are electing people who somehow turn a public service job into millions of dollars in their pockets. How are you able to trust any elected official?
Pierre Tristam says
That’s the problem: “belief” over evidence. We’ve lost count of the number of courts that threw out claims of fraud, even the blithering Ninjas in Arizona not only couldn’t come up with evidence of fraud after their theatrical recount, but they added to Biden’s count. But still we get the fraud card by seemingly literate and seemingly coherent people, relatively speaking, though the commenter above may want to verify his/her/their “trillions” sent abroad. The United States is not that generous, and when you take out the billions and billions sent to Israel and Egypt(but mostly Israel), we come off pretty stingy, especially relative to our budgets. Then when you add the requirement that U.S. aid is usually tied to strings that require the money to be spent on U.S. goods and services, we come off like the shmucks and pricks he/she/they likes to refer to.
FlaPharmTech says
I witness stupidity every… single…day at my job. I’m a flipping genius in comparison, yet earning $16.50/hr. I often think these stupid idiots probably earn more than I and what in heck am I doing wrong?! Sorry, just venting. Agree wholeheartedly in your comment.
Oh, and did you hear the cause of dog allergies is the 3 year rabies vaccine?! I cannot make this up. We’re doomed.
FlaPharmTech says
Stupid cult works. Unfortunately they’re also dangerous, propped up in power by the orange idiot.
DaleL says
In a two party system, a person pretty much has to vote for one or the other. In many cases it is a vote for the lessor of two “evils”. In the 2020 election, there were Republican representatives who defeated their opponents in districts that Trump lost. Some of these same Republicans then promoted Trump’s lie that the election was rigged. In effect they claim that the election that got them elected was “stolen”.
In the Virginia presidential race, it was found that some 4,000 votes had been switched from one candidate to another. They had been switched from Biden to Trump. Biden’s victory was greater by some 4,000 votes than originally tabulated. Trump encouraged voter fraud in his favor. His phone call to Brad Raffensperger is an example of that.
Joe Biden is an honorable person who will uphold the Constitution of the United States. I think he is to old and should have not run for reelection. Donald Trump is a criminal. He attempted to overturn the 2020 election and by use of intimidation tried to overturn the Constitution of the United States. He broke the Presidential oath that he took. I do not understand why he wasn’t barred from holding any office by the Supreme Court of the US because of the insurrection clause in the 14th Amendment.
If you would prefer a dictatorship such as in Putin’s Russian Federation, vote for Trump. Better yet, go there.
DaleL says
Sadly it is true that an increasing number of dog and cat owners are vaccine skeptics. Rabies is 100% fatal in unvaccinated dogs according to a study published in 2020. “Duration of immunity after rabies vaccination in dogs: The Rabies Challenge Fund research study” Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7088826/
Vaccinated dogs had an 80% survival rate 6 years 7 months after vaccination.
I don’t know if we are doomed, but I agree, we just cannot make this stuff up. Some people will risk the lives of their pets, family, and themselves based on the flawed logic that they know more than the “elitist liberal experts”. It is the Dunning-Kruger effect gone wild.