By Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Joseph Wright
As former President Donald Trump edges closer to clinching the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, our political science research has shown that a second Trump presidency is likely to damage American democracy even more than his first term did. The reason has less to do with Trump and his ambitions than with how power dynamics have shifted within the Republican Party.
In our forthcoming book, “The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within,” we explain the dangers that arise when leaders come to power backed by political parties that exist primarily to promote the leader’s personal agenda, as opposed to advancing particular policies.
In general, typical political parties select new leaders at regular intervals, which gives elites in the party another chance to win a nomination in the future if the party is popular. And typical parties tend to select leaders who rise up the ranks of the party, having worked with other party elites along the way.
But so-called personalist parties, as political scientists like us call them, are a threat to democracy because they lack the incentives and ability to resist their leader’s efforts to amass more power.
From 1990 to 2020, in countries all over the world, elected leaders backed by personalist parties have gone on to undermine democracy from within. There are three reasons personalist parties are harmful to democracy, all of which have clear parallels to experiences with Trump and the Republican Party.
1. Loyalty to the person, not the party
Personalist party elites are loyal to the leader. A classic indicator of party personalization is the ouster of politically experienced people in the party elite, who are often highly qualified and more independent of the leader – and their replacement with less experienced people who are personally loyal to the leader. These people are more likely to view their political success as being intertwined with that of the leader rather than the party. They therefore are more likely to support the leader’s agenda, no matter how harmful it may be for democracy.
In Turkey, for example, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, known in Turkish as the AKP, initially included elites who were established politicians, such as Ali Babacan, Abdullah Gul and Bulent Arinc. As time passed, however, Erdogan weeded out these veterans and replaced them with more loyal supporters. This paved the way for Erdogan to consolidate control, including – among other things – shifting power in 2018 from the parliament to the presidency and expanding his powers considerably.
2. Official endorsement of leader’s actions
In personalist parties, elites endorse the leader’s actions, cueing voters to do the same. Ordinary citizens who support personalist parties often go along with leaders’ efforts to dismantle democracy, even if they care about democracy, because they are highly receptive to signals provided by the party elite. When the party higher-ups endorse – rather than condemn – the leader’s undemocratic inclinations, supporters get the message that nothing is wrong, and they fall in line.
In Brazil, for example, then-President Jair Bolsonaro generated doubts among supporters that the 2022 presidential elections would be fair, suggesting that electoral officials might manipulate the results in his opponent’s favor. The political elite, including members of Brazil’s Congress, amplified these claims.
These elite cues signaled to Bolsonaro supporters that his actions were compatible with a healthy democracy, ultimately setting the stage for them to resort to violence when Bolsonaro lost the election in a contest that independent observers considered free and fair.
3. Polarizing society with controversy
Leaders of personalist parties polarize the societies they govern.
While many kinds of leaders demonize their political opponents, we have found that personalist party leaders’ anti-democratic behaviors – such as attempting to overturn an election they’ve lost – split society into polarized factions: those who support them and everyone else.
When opponents of the leader raise concerns that the leader’s actions are harmful to democracy, as the Democrats regularly have since Trump won office in 2016, supporters dig in their heels in defiance, incredulous that there is cause for concern. Affective polarization, where citizens increasingly dislike their opponents, deepens. With the opponents vilified, the leader has the political support to take actions to keep the other side out of power, even if those actions undermine democracy in the process.
Take Venezuela, historically one of the most stable democracies in Latin America. Former President Hugo Chavez’s power grabs splintered Venezuelan society, dividing citizens over what the rules of the game should be and who should have access to power. As the chasm between his backers and the opposition grew, so did the abuses of power his supporters were willing to accept to ensure his continued rule. Chavez’s actions, which faced no resistance from those in his party, polarized society, ultimately pushing the country toward dictatorship.
AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki
The GOP is a personalist party
The present Republican Party closely fits the personalist mold.
Conventionally, a party leader rises through the party ranks. But Trump didn’t do that, and before seeking the presidency, he didn’t have strong, collegial relationships with key Republican figures in government. Rather, he switched party allegiance several times and before becoming president had never held any elected office.
Since 2016, Trump has increasingly sidelined the traditional party establishment to remake the party into an instrument to further his own personal, political and financial interests. As an indicator of this, the party elite have grown fearful of diverging from his agenda, so much so that the 2020 GOP platform essentially amounted to “whatever Trump wants.” Today, the main qualification for a Republican candidate or appointee appears to be loyalty to Trump himself, not fealty to longstanding GOP principles. Traditional parties, including the pre-Trump Republican Party, offer voters a bundle of policy positions hashed out among multiple elite factions of the party.
Trump’s supersized control over the Republican Party has transformed other leading party figures into sycophants, always seeking Trump’s favor. Even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, after experiencing ridicule and abuse from Trump, endorsed the former president’s bid to return to the White House.
No resistance to a Trump power grab
The personalist nature of the Republican Party means that if Trump were to win office again, he is unlikely to face pushback from the party on any issue. All signs indicate that Trump, if reelected, is likely to pursue an authoritarian power grab by, for example, purging professional bureaucrats, expanding the Supreme Court or using the Insurrection Act to deploy the military against protesters. Party members may even support him in that power grab.
Most elected leaders are ambitious and, like Trump, seek to gain and hold onto power for as long as they can. Indeed, very few elected leaders resign voluntarily. The octogenarians who fill Congress attest to many politicians’ unwillingness to relinquish the power they have.
We have found that what matters for democracy is not so much the ambitions of power-hungry leaders, but rather whether those in their support group will tame them.
As our research shows, the most danger comes when personalist ruling parties hold legislative majorities and the presidency, meaning opposition parties in the legislature can’t stop the ruling party from dominating. In those circumstances, there is little that stands in the way of a grab for power. For instance, if Republicans won a slim Senate majority, they might abolish the filibuster. That would limit Democrats’ ability to hold up legislation they opposed.
Elected leaders backed by personalist parties are therefore often successful in dismantling institutional checks on their power, whether from the legislature or the courts. Leaders of personalist parties have attempted to curb judicial constraints in countries as different as El Salvador, Hungary and Israel, with the ruling parties doing little to stop their efforts.
Long-standing and wealthy democracies, like the U.S., are remarkably resilient to the challenges that confront them. But ruling party personalism helps elected leaders undercut these protective guardrails. Because the Republican Party has taken a personalist turn under Trump’s spell, democracy in the U.S. would suffer should Trump win a second term.
Erica Frantz is Associate Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University; Andrea Kendall-Taylor is Distinguished Practitioner in Grand Strategy at the Jackson School of Public Affairs, Yale University; Joseph Wright is Professor of Political Science at Penn State.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
Ray W. says
Speaking of polarizing society with controversy, does every FlaglerLive commenter remember the claims repeatedly posted on this site by the gullible among us stating that we only had 25 days of diesel fuel left and that America was about to run completely out of diesel fuel just before Thanksgiving 2022? A Fox commentator, Tucker Carlson, had dropped that bomb on TV, claiming that the situation was due to a religious war started in the Ukraine by the Biden administration, and it rapidly took hold among the gullible among us, complete with claims that the current administration was once again ruining America!
Well, the historical average daily supply never dipped below 25 days of diesel fuel stocks. On this past February 2nd, the diesel fuel stocks were a much more normal 34 days, having never dropped below 25.4 days in the past 15 months. It was at 39.5 days stockpiled on January 19th, the highest it has been in the past 15 months.
Once again, educability requires two elements: veracity and credulity. Veracity is defined as being capable of speaking, knowing and understanding the truth about a particular subject matter. Just because someone understands the multiplication tables does not mean that the same person understands three-dimensional calculus. Credulity is defined as believing that someone else can speak, know and understand the truth about a particular subject matter. We can learn about three-dimensional calculus from someone else who knows the subject matter, but only if we believe that person can teach us about it.
Obviously, the gullible FlaglerLive commenters who fell for the Fox News disinformation did not possess veracity about the American diesel fuel marketplace. Worse yet, they formed credulity for someone who would intentionally spread disinformation the public about a complex international energy marketplace. When a gullible person who lacks veracity about the diesel fuel marketplace forms credulity for the wrong person, that deceitful person can persuade the gullible to believe anything. The key is to be careful in selecting those to whom one intends to form credulity. If credulity is formed for the wrong person, uneducability is the obvious initial result. Tyranny can soon follow, because the gullible will believe anything said by the person they erroneously chose to trust.
Sherry says
Dear Ray,
I am sitting here in gorgeous South Africa hoping against hope that your astute words of wisdom get through the noise of FOX/Newsmax talking heads, and create an impression on those who so sorely need them.
dave says
A clown and his stooges. The continued downfall of America
Joe D says
Donald Trump doesn’t REALLY want to “Make America GREAT again.” He only wants to make Donald Trump FEEL great again, after the trouncing LEGAL loss to Joe Biden in 2020.
There are RECENT cases in point that indicate he’s not interested in ANY bipartisanship to improve the country UNLESS HE gets CREDIT for it!
For Months, the Senate has had a bipartisan (both Democrats AND Republicans) trying to work out a deal to HALT border crossings if the requests for ASYLUM reached a certain maximum number, it increased funds to pay for more border patrol “boots on the ground.” It approved more money for staff to process asylum applicants more quickly, it raised the bar for PROOF immigrant applicants feared for their lives in their country of origin…not just a blanket “I feel threatened.”
It also designated aid to Israel, Gaza humanitarian relief, aid for Ukraine, and Taiwan. It also extended tax credits to businesses that Republican law makers wanted.
It was the most comprehensive deal on the border for decades, and was on schedule to being voted on FAVORABLY by BOTH sides, UNTIL……….Donald Trump said it should be voted down….NOT because he necessarily thought it was a BAD deal….he didn’t want this bill to be approved ON BIDEN’S WATCH!?!?!
He wanted the deal worked out AFTER he WON re-election, so HE WOULD GET POLITICAL CREDIT for it (unbelievable)!!! And his “lap dog” Speaker of the House , Mike Johnson, shifted direction, and said the bill (which had not even been published yet in its final draft) was”dead on arrival” if it made it to the HOUSE for a vote. Does THAT sound like a PRESIDENT looking out for the betterment of the CITIZENS!?!
The newest headlines (2/11/24)… Citizen Trump said that WHEN he’s re-elected, Russia can attack ANY NATO nation that doesn’t pay what he feels is “their fair share” into NATO (remember Latvia? Slovakia? The Chech Republic? They are all NATO members without large economic coffers)….but it sounds about right for Citizen Trump to believe only the RICH (countries included) deserve PROTECTION!!!
At age 70, I still can’t believe the BRAINWASHING the MAGA extremists are BELIEVING WITHOUT QUESTION….even after FACT checking proves he’s LYING!!!!!!
Sherry says
Dear Joe D. . . You, Sir are right on!
Michael Cocchiola says
There is no doubt in my mind that Trump is a traitor to America and our allies. We know he shared national secrets with guests at Mar a Lago. We know he has retained a folder of top secrets that probably has veen shared with Trunm-friendly countries like Russia, Israel and Saudi Arabia. We know he will sell out NATO.
Those who vote for Trump are co-conspirators in our downfall.
Joe D says
Yet like Lemmings following each other blindly going over a cliff to their deaths…
…Sadly, Vote for DT they will in MAGA solidarity…right off the DEMOCRACY CLIFF !
It’s too bad Republican former Maryland Governor (he could SADLY only run by law for 2 terms) HOGAN is only running 2024 for Congress this election ( I , even as a DEMOCRAT, voted for this well liked and COMPETENT MODERATE Republican…in a Democratic State who hasn’t seen a Republican Governor since the 1990’s).
He’s definitely a name to watch if he takes the Senate seat from the retiring Democratic Senator Ben Cardin. I MIGHT even be willing to VOTE for him for President (I vote for the PERSON….not the PARTY) in the 2028 election.
Ed P says
A logical fallacy.
73 million co-conspirators(traitors)
Laurel says
Like the NFL, FBI, CDC, Justice System, and other Putin rivals…
Sherry says
@ Michael. . . Right On! As usual!
Charles says
Navarro is going to prison, rioters at the Capitol are in prison, Rudy is disbarred and charged other Trump lawyers are going to be disbarred yet Donald is walking free playing golf everyday building his army staff to fight for him something wrong with this picture.
Dennis C Rathsam says
Well Well Well, Hello again from the American who cant spell, and you all love to hate! How are you going to vote for a man who.s aproval rating is the lowest in history! 2 new wars, crime, drugs, sex traffcers….Because of the open border from Biden We are being INVADED, no nothing who,s here, nobody in D.C cares! Police in NY are being terrorized by Bidens invaders, shootings, murder, rape… all caused buy one senile, forgettfull old man. TRUMP closed the border! period!!! No new wars, prosperity, cheap gas, cheap food. No one kissing China,s ass. TAX breaks for all Americans! Interest rates at 3%, so first time home buyers could buy a home…. NOT NOW!!!! How bout the Abraham Accord in the Middle East!!! PEACE!!!! What do we have now? Your stupitity & ignorance, supporting a fail president is amazing. I can see you hate the man, you hate his tweets, but he was right,& he kept us safe! Even after the 4 years of Crooked Hillary & her bullshit dociea! Russian Colloosion my ass! More democratic cover ups & lies!!!!! GOD BLESS YOU FOOLS! PS Have you all seen the polls lately?
Laurel says
Dennis: You still support Comrade Trump? So, when you look through binoculars, you put the small, focal end to your eyes.
Charles says
The GOP party have sold their souls to Donald because their weak, and scared of him so they all broke their Oath of Office. Who can respect them when they obviously don’t respect themselves.
don miller says
biden recently certified as certifiable by an investigator is bad for the country and world
Laurel says
don miller: Is Hur a medical doctor, trained in Geriatrics? What are his qualifications in the medical field?
Sherry says
Thanks Laurel, for pointing out the obvious!
Laurel says
Sherry: Sometimes it has to be done!