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The US Edges Closer to War Footing with Venezuela

October 5, 2025 | FlaglerLive | 6 Comments

U.S. Marines park a Lockheed Martin F-35B fighter aircraft at Naval Station Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico on Sept 13, 2025.
U.S. Marines park a Lockheed Martin F-35B fighter aircraft at Naval Station Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico on Sept 13, 2025. Kendall Torres Cortés/picture alliance via Getty Images

By Robert Muggah

For many in Venezuela, the question is no longer whether tensions with Washington will reach a boiling point – they already have. Rather, the big unknown now is whether the U.S. will follow up on threats and the sinking of drug boats with something more drastic: direct military engagement or even regime change.

Certainly, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is preparing for all eventualities. On Sept. 29, 2025, the leftist leader signed a decree granting him additional powers. The following day, Maduro threatened a “state of emergency.” Already, Caracas has carried out military drills amid talk of being a “republic in arms.”

It follows a month in which Washington has positioned warships, an attack submarine and aircraft in the Caribbean and destroyed at least four suspected “go-fast” drug boats. At the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 23, U.S. President Donald Trump warned of more to come, vowing to blow drug traffickers “out of existence” while repeating his assertion that Maduro was behind the trafficking networks.

Maduro and his generals deny that charge. Nonetheless, Washington has set a US$50 million dollar bounty on Maduro’s arrest and has rejected Venezuela’s appeals for talks.

As an expert on international security and U.S.-Latin American relations, I believe the U.S. position appears to be inching toward regime change from a prior position of ambiguity that has fallen short of an outright pledge to remove Maduro.

But Washington will be aware that any direct military engagement in Venezuela will be a messy affair. Despite increasing international isolation, Maduro still has friends in Moscow and Beijing, as well as closer to home in Havana. And such factors may force the Trump administration to continue to walk a fine line between maximum pressure on the Maduro government without full commitment to armed conflict.

US ramps up pressure

Recent deployments by the U.S. Southern Command demonstrate a shift in posture by the U.S. administration.

The USS Stockdale became the ninth U.S. Navy vessel and third destroyer – alongside USS Gravely and USS Jason Dunham – to join the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group maneuvering between Puerto Rico and the Lesser and Leeward Antilles, and the waters north of Venezuela. In all, at least 4,500 Marines and sailors are positioned in the area.

Meanwhile, at least 10 F-35 fighters and multiple MQ-9 drones are reportedly operating from Aguadilla and Ceiba airports in Puerto Rico, offering the capacity for persistent surveillance and strike options.

These forces are more powerful than the entire Venezuelan navy but reportedly fall short of the forces needed for a full-scale invasion.

For the moment, SouthCom is framing the campaign as enhanced counternarcotics operations, rather than a prelude to a blockade or invasion. Statements have highlighted joint patrols and interdiction efforts with the Royal Netherlands Navy, Canada, the Dominican Republic and the United Kingdom, and the humanitarian or information-sharing nature of missions.

SouthCom has described its position as one of readiness, not war. But this could change, especially with the much-anticipated 2025 national defense review expected to prioritize countering the perceived threat of Chinese interference in the Western Hemisphere.

And it is worth recalling that the U.S. has long maintained a light but steady military footprint in the region.

Caracas pushes back

Caracas has staged military displays of its own.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López announced on Sept. 15 three days of drills involving naval units, aircraft air-defense assets and militia participation. Maduro has declared “maximum preparedness” and threatened to mobilize a “republic in arms” if attacked.

If enacted, the state of emergency would be effective for 90 days and centralize military control in the office of the president. The aim is clear: to project resolve and raise the cost for Washington of any further escalation.

Venezuela’s military is not negligible, but readiness has been eroded by decades of economic crisis, sanctions and maintenance shortfalls. It is no match for U.S. military dominance at sea or in the air, although it could inflict damage through asymmetric tactics and militia mobilization.

On the U.S. side, the means for coercion through targeted strikes, interdictions, cyberattacks and sanctions are already at hand. Further escalation may, however, hinge on a catalyzing event, such as an attack resulting in the killing of Venezuelan or U.S. military personnel.

Adversaries and allies

Regionally, most governments have avoided taking sides. One exception is Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who at the United Nations General Assembly called for “criminal proceedings” over the recent U.S. strikes.

In the Caribbean, there is little appetite for hosting a U.S. invasion force. The president of Dominica noted in her speech at the General Assembly that “there is no place in the Caribbean for war.” One exception is Guyana, which is locked in a territorial dispute with Venezuala over the oil-rich Essequibo region and has welcomed U.S. security cooperation.

Yet, an attack on Venezuela or an attempt at regime change risks rallying the country’s allies.

First among them in the region is Cuba. Cuban intelligence and security advisers have long been embedded across Venezuela’s military and security services. This gives Maduro some resilience against internal coups and complicates U.S. efforts to precipitate elite defections from Maduro’s inner circle.

While expressing political support for Maduro, it is highly unlikely that Cuba would ever be in a position to supplement any Venezuelan combat forces given Havana’s own weak position, struggling economy and relatively modest military capabilities.

And despite fresh affirmations of solidarity and the continued presence of Russian “military experts,” Moscow also lacks the political military bandwidth for large, new deployments. Still, long-standing military and technical ties such as training, maintenance, weapons sales and selective systems support offer Maduro a modest but valuable hedge against external pressure.

Even a token port call or bomber overflight could add political friction – and pause for thought in Washington. Russia has sent nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela in the past, and its navy made a publicized visit to La Guaira in July 2024.

A man in army fatigues speaks and gestures in front of a large photo of another man.
Venezuela’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez speaks in Caracas on Sept. 23, 2025.
Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images

Oil in the balance

One much more consequential factor could be the position of China.

Beijing plays a consequential role as a buyer of Venezuelan oil. As Western sanctions have set in, a growing share of Venezuelan hydrocarbon exports is now funneled through “shadow fleet” tankers and complex rerouting schemes, allowing crude to reach Chinese refineries despite sanctions and export restrictions.

Any U.S. campaign that disrupts these flows would hit Chinese refiners first. This would likely prompt Beijing to push back diplomatically and commercially.

In late September, China stressed that it “opposes the use of force” and decried external interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs – a clear rebuke of the U.S. military buildup.

The Chinese ambassador in Caracas has also conveyed solidarity to his host, emphasizing that Beijing will “firmly support Venezuela in safeguarding sovereignty, national dignity and social stability.”

China is offering diplomatic support but has stopped short of any pledge of force.

For now, America’s most likely path is, I believe, coastal policing and military pressure. At sea, this means the U.S. continuing to lead counternarcotics operations, but with Navy cover close at hand. The U.S. buildup could well boost underground opposition networks in Venezuela, increasing pressure on the Maduro regime from within.

This will be paired with increased financial pressure in the form of sanctions aimed at further squeezing Venezuela’s state oil industry, but calibrated to avoid a global energy shock. Measures also include restricting dollar-clearing and maritime insurance, blacklisting intermediaries and dark fleet tankers, and targeting front companies.

Pressure short of war

Nonetheless, expectations of a military clash are edging upward. Several forecasters now put the odds of some form of U.S. strike against Venezuela before year’s end at roughly 1 in 3, with the chances rising further into 2026.

Yet the prospect of an outright invasion remains, I believe, remote. U.S. domestic politics may act as a brake: Opinion polls show most Americans oppose military action to topple Maduro, and an even larger majority reject the idea of a full-scale invasion.

Even so, three factors could shape if and when Washington steps up its action: a deadly incident at sea involving civilians or U.S. personnel; hard evidence that Venezuelan officials are directly tied to large-scale trafficking to the U.S.; and regional governments lining up behind stronger action.

While the odds of a strike and even regime change are rising, Washington’s strategy in the very near term appears to remain one of pressure without full commitment, using shows of force, sanctions and selective strikes to weaken Caracas while avoiding being dragged into a messy war or sparking an oil shock.

Robert Muggah is Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow at Bosch Academy and Co-founder of Instituto Igarapé.

The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
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Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. JimboXYZ says

    October 6, 2025 at 9:36 am

    War on Drugs & Cartels is what we have here. Involves Maduro & Venezuelan government that gained power under Obama-Biden. Back to another prime example of cleaning up that mess of Democratic leadership ? Makes one wonder how involved Hunter Biden/Biden Family was in all of that ? Being the crack head that he was, the international business person he was at one time ? Where all those millions for the Joe Biden pardoned tax evasion really came from ? So many questions that were dismissed at the stroke of the Biden auto-pen.

    That’s the beauty of being America, Venezuela can flex militarily all they want, any relative war with Venezuela would probably be like mobilizing vs Iraq and Saddam Husein’s elite forces ? Within 24 hours of any relative invasion, Maduro is that national leader that goes into hiding like Saddam Hussein, they probably find him living in the storm water underground pipes of Venezuela. That’s if his own people don’t hunt him down for the $ 50 million reward. Maduro becomes more like a FL Python hunt at that point ? US military does the heavy lifting, every bounty hunter globally shows up in Venezuela for their Drug Cartel involved world leader hunt ?

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  2. Pogo says

    October 6, 2025 at 10:06 am

    @Robert Muggah is Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow at Bosch Academy and Co-founder of Instituto Igarapé

    Don’t forget gringo traditions
    https://www.google.com/search?q=remember+the+maine

    Ibid
    https://www.google.com/search?q=munroe+doctrine

    Trump is preparing a major victory for China, in other words, Trump’s plan, aka, I’m hungry — there’s a McDonalds! — get in the right lane now before it’s too late, is working.

    And so it went. And then nothing did.

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  3. Deborah Coffey says

    October 6, 2025 at 12:45 pm

    Donald Trump is so reckless and so thoughtless that anything could happen. He’s been killing people in speed boats in the Caribbean. Are they drug smugglers? Where are the bodies and where are the drugs? Once again, no due process and more lawbreaking from Trump.

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  4. Joe D says

    October 6, 2025 at 3:22 pm

    I’m all for limiting drug Cartels’ activities in OPEN INTERNATIONAL waters near Venezuela. However the US better be 99.9% SURE of the GUILT of the so-called “drug runners” they are blowing up with US forces and weapons…so far we only have our Commander in Chief’s and our Secretary of “War’s” words for it ( and you KNOW THEY WOULD NEVER DISTORT THE TRUTH… that was SARCASM). If you are going to be JUDGE, JURY, and EXECUTIONER for these suspected cartel smugglers, the AMERICAN PEOPLE need a bit more PROOF than a “BECAUSE I SAID SO,” response from our leaders as to their actual GUILT.

    It doesn’t help the CREDIBILITY of our current US President, when his buddy ( and legally “out voted” former President of Venezuela) was recently arrested and now convicted in a Coup attempt to remain in office, in defiance of an INTERNATIONALLY reviewed election results PROVING that Maduro had won the election! Feeling a bit too CLOSE for COMFORT President Trump, are we… we wouldn’t want an INTERNATIONAL PRECEDENCE set for a seated government to put their FORMER PRESIDENT ON TRIAL. Yes, President Biden, and UNITED NATIONS groups backed the election results, as valid… resulting in the COUP attempt by the outgoing president, to regain power.

    The US is getting DANGEROUSLY close to triggering an INTERNATIONAL INCIDENT (accidentally or purposefully) which might pull the US into an actual STATE OF WAR. STARTING A WAR isn’t REALLY a good LOOK for the USA… maybe someone should let the current occupant of the Oval Office in on it. The WORLD can SEE what your are DOING Mr President, under the guise of “drug enforcement,” even if your MAGA “Sheeple” do not,

    We’ve seen ENOUGH of Trump’s RETRIBUTION against political adversaries within the USA borders… IN MY OPINION (there’s that RIDICULOUS DISCLAIMER we should add to our comments, lest we fall prey to the current administration’s FREE SPEECH “POLICE”)… we CERTAINLY don’t need to see that RETRIBUTION acted out on the international stage!

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  5. Lynne says

    October 6, 2025 at 4:01 pm

    I’m waiting to see or hear evidence that these were even Venezuelan boats. I lived in the southern Caribbean for many years and the Venezuelans are not the only ones to have go-fast boats.

    Even that belies the contention that these were drug smugglers.

    I have no doubt that there is smuggling in these waters – I saw it. And I know there is drug smuggling, but still…

    When are we going to have the truth? Or the proof?

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  6. exasperated says

    October 7, 2025 at 6:52 am

    This is beginning to remind me of the Gulf of Tonkin incident.

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