Florida elections officials last week released voter-registration numbers for the Nov. 3 general election. Here are seven takeaways as Florida is again a key state in the battle for the White House:
— THE BIG PICTURE: Democrats have traditionally led in voter registration in Florida, but Republicans are inching closer — while many voters don’t want to be identified with either party. In all, 14,441,869 people are registered to vote in November, with 36.7 percent registered as Democrats, 35.8 percent registered as Republicans and 26 percent registered with no party affiliation (the remaining voters are registered with third parties). Compare that to the 2016 general election, when Florida had 12,863,773 registered voters. Democrats made up 37.9 percent, while Republicans made up 35.4 percent and unaffiliated voters made up 24 percent. Of course, registration numbers don’t tell the whole story: Republicans have dominated state politics since the late 1990s.
In Flagler County, out of 91,916 registered voters when books closed this month, 43.6 percent are registered Republican (40,066), 30.6 percent are registered Democrats (28,176), and 25.8 percent are either independents, with no party affiliation, or registered with minor parties (23,674). In comparison in November 2016, Republicans had 39.8 percent of registered voters (31,697), Democrats had 31.8 percent (25,370), and independents and minor parties had 28.4 percent (22,672).
To put things further in perspective: while Democrats briefly had a registration advantage in the summer and fall of 2008, Republicans quickly regained the lead, and this month reached their highest proportion of registered voters in the county’s history. They had last come closest in the early 2000s.
— WHERE THE PEOPLE ARE: While Democrats lead in voter registration statewide, they top Republicans in only 19 of the 67 counties. But Democrats are buoyed by having more registered voters in all seven of the most heavily populated counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, Orange, Pinellas and Duval. Combined, those counties have 2,969,896 registered Democrats, or 56 percent of the party’s statewide total. Meanwhile, those counties have 1,992,914 registered Republicans, or 38.6 percent of the GOP’s statewide total. Pinellas is the most evenly divided large county, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 5,034 voters. In Broward, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 364,352 voters.
— RURAL DEMOCRATS NO MORE: When Republican President George W. Bush was elected in 2000, Florida had 20 counties where the GOP held registration leads over Democrats. But during the past two decades, Republicans have systematically gained the registration advantage in rural counties in much of the state, drawing people who traditionally had been conservative Southern Democrats. Take, for example, Baker County in Northeast Florida. In 2000, Democrats made up 83 percent of the county’s registered voters. This year, Republicans make up 61.4 percent. Similarly, Democrats made up 83.4 percent of the voters in Northwest Florida’s Holmes County in 2000. This year, Republicans make up 64.2 percent.
— NO PARTY, NO PROBLEM: As the race between Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden enters its final two weeks, a couple of things are clear: Republican and Democratic voters are polarized, and Florida is a key battleground. That could make the steadily growing number of unaffiliated voters particularly important. The number of people registered without party affiliation increased from 3,089,929 in 2016 to 3,753,286 this year. And while registering without party affiliation shuts voters out of primary elections, the percentage of voters walking away from parties has soared during the past two decades. In 2000, 15.5 percent of voters were registered without affiliation, compared to the 26 percent this year.
— RACIAL DIVIDE: The new registration numbers show a dramatic difference in the racial makeups of the two major parties. The state lists 1,526,297 registered Democrats as “Black, not Hispanic,” or about 28.8 percent of the Democrats’ overall total. Meanwhile, it lists 2,432,098 Democrats as “white, not Hispanic,” or about 45.9 percent of the Democrats’ overall total. Meanwhile, the numbers show 68,383 Republicans as “Black, not Hispanic,” or about 1.3 percent of registered Republicans statewide. The numbers list 4,212,474 Republicans as “white, not Hispanic,” or nearly 81.5 percent of the overall registered GOP voters.
— IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FIGHT: Central Florida is like a magnet for candidates, operatives and reporters during major elections, as they try to divine which way the legendary Interstate 4 corridor will go. The new registration numbers reflect how Orange and Osceola counties have become Democratic strongholds, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 152,788 voters in Orange County and 45,265 voters in Osceola County. But Republicans dominate in registration in other areas of Central Florida, including Brevard and Lake counties. And Republicans make up 56.6 percent of the voters in Sumter County, which is a regular stop for GOP candidates because of The Villages retirement community.
— CORNERING THE MARKETS: While Democrats might dominate in major urban areas, the GOP runs up huge voter-registration margins in Northwest Florida, Northeast Florida and Southwest Florida. Consider Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton and Bay counties in Northwest Florida: Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 201,081 votes in those five counties. And while Duval County has more registered Democrats than Republicans, consider the four counties that surround it: Nassau, Baker, Clay and St. Johns. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 144,789 voters in those counties, which include a mixture of suburban, beachfront and rural areas. In Southwest Florida’s Lee and Collier counties, meanwhile, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 138,480 voters.
–FlaglerLive and News Service of Florida
Flagler County Voter Registration, 2003-2020
| Oct. 2003 | 38.7% | 41.5% | 17.8% | 2% | |
| March 2004 | 38.9% | 41.1% | 18.1% | 1.9% | |
| March 2005 | 37.9% | 40.6% | 19.4% | 2.1% | |
| March 2006 | 37.3% | 39.9% | 20.3% | 2.6% | |
| March 2007 | 37.0% | 39.1% | 21.1% | 2.8% | |
| March 2008 | 37.5% | 37.8% | 21.5% | 3.2% | |
| July 2008 | 37.8% | 37.6% | 21.3% | 2.8% | |
| March 2009 | 38.1% | 36.4% | 22.1% | 3.4% | |
| March 2010 | 37.6% | 36.0% | 22.8% | 3.7% | |
| March 2011 | 36.9% | 35.9% | 23.2% | 4% | |
| March 2012 | 35.8% | 36.6% | 23.6% | 3.9% | |
| Oct. 2012 | 35.3% | 37.1% | 24.7% | 2.9% | |
| Florida, May 2012 | 40.2% | 36.3% | 23.5% | ||
| March 2013 | 34.9% | 37.2% | 25% | 2.9% | |
| March 2014 | 34.2% | 36.59% | 26.4% | 2.8% | |
| March 2015 | 33.2% | 36.2% | 27.7% | 2.8% | |
| February 2016 | 32.3% | 38.2% | 27% | 2.5% | |
| Florida, January 2016 | 37.8% | 35.1% | 24.2% | 2.9% | |
| October 2017 | 31.2% | 40.6% | 27.8% | 0.4% | |
| October 2018 | 30.9% | 41.2 | 27.2% | 0.7% | |
| October 2019 | 24.8% | 41.7% | 26.8% | 0.9% | |
| October 2020 | 30.6% | 43.6% | 24.4% | 1.4% | |
| Florida, October 2020 | 36.7% | 35.8% | 26% | 1.5% |
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KMac says
You are confusing sheer numbers with voter preference; you believe that people vote absolutely according to party lines. Without fear of contradiction, there are people who are registered Democrats who will not vote for Biden as well as registered Republican who will not vote for Mr. Trump. Senior Citizens may not vote Republican for fear that their Social Security and Medicare will be cut. Good chance if Mr. Trump removes the Payroll Tax which accounts for $1.24 Trillion or 35.4% of the Federal Budget without a replacement alternative.
Also, with the influx of people from the Northeast, typically Democratic, the diversity of the electorate will start to tip; now a Red State, soon to be a Purple State.
Steve says
Its a Republican State and County so no big surprise.
Adorable Deplorable says
My goodness, ALL those Republicans in Flagler. Something tells me President Trump will be staying another 4 years in the White House…….. But heck, I already knew that !!!!!
LetThemEatCake says
And? It’s all how you vote. I’m a registered Republican and have been for my entire life and I despise the mango in the White House. He’s an abomination. A liar. A cheat. Influenced by foreign leaders. A petulant child. He has the deaths of over 220,000 Americans on his hands.
Even if Flagler goes red, it doesn’t matter. Even if FL goes red it doesn’t matter. Biden will win with over 370 electoral votes. The only way he doesn’t is if he cheats and disrupts the electoral process. His “cult” members are already burning ballot boxes, discarding mail, and turning people away from voting centers. It’s a disgrace. He’s terrified of his debts coming due and the fact that he will have to leave the country or face prison.
True patriots, true Americans put country over a letter by someone’s name. I have to think we are better than someone who denigrates women, minorities, and gives wink-wink’s to domestic terror groups. He is owned by Putin. Eric Trump admitting most of their money comes from the Russians through their business dealings. Don Jr stole money from a child’s cancer charity and the Trump family is not permitted to have any charity groups in NY. Ivanka received 5 Chinese trademarks AFTER Trump was POTUS because he made a deal with them. Someone in the Trump family laundered money through their Vegas business. The entire family is crooked. These aren’t rumors either or some conspiracy. Unlike JFK JR appearing to take Pence’s place or Hillary eating babies. Who are these people? Please go back in your conspiracy hole and stay there. You ruined my party. The party of Lincoln.
One more thing. Who is owned and influenced by foreign leaders and governments? Who has sold the soul of America for likes and re-Tweets? The man I’m not voting for again. Fool me once shame on you….fool me twice, shame on me. I won’t feel shame when I cast my vote for Joe Biden.
Carl Lewis says
….Biden will win with over 370 electoral votes. The only way he doesn’t is if he cheats and disrupts the electoral process. His “cult” members…..
You mean Trump, right?
Mike Cocchiola says
Democrats have lost some ground in Flagler County, but we’ll make up for that is Democratic-leaning NPAs (NoParty Affiliation). And I believe Real Republicans (you, know, those who still retain their Republican values of fiscal responsibility, small government, ethics, compromise and belief in America, not Trump) will vote with Democrats to stop the Trumpnado and get America back on track.
GOP ROX says
Great news
Palmcoaster says
I been always and still a registered Republican but I didn’t and more over no way now will vote for this TTT, I saw the writing in the wall in 2016. Also my NPA registered family will not vote from him either. I have friends that did vote for him and regret it and voting against him now. From all the people I know very few will support him. So lets see what is stored for us all and may God Help Us. Any seniors voting for this guy are committing financial suicide when it comes to their Social Security duly earned pays. Any young ones will taste the wrath of going back to no preventive medical insurance risking to loose a limb or dying for not affording medical attention. Hate will proceed to be fed like a wildfire and democratic governed states will continue to have their governors harassed and threatened with kidnap under orders and their federal FEMA Disaster Funds denied! Before anyone goes to the ballot box just THINK!
Carl Lewis says
Instead of getting caught up in all the rhetoric, let’s look at the issues that matter to us here in Flagler County and see if a Republican vote is applicable.
1. Taxes: The GOP tax break for middle class Americans is going to expire next year and it was largely nominal anyway. The real tax breaks, which are permanent, are for the ultra-wealthy and big businesses, a lot of which pay little or no tax. Under Democrats the ultra-wealthy and big businesses will be made to pay their fair share and only those individuals who earn over $400,000 per year will see a marginal rate tax increase. Don’t know about you, but I’m nowhere near that income! The Covid-19 relief for small businesses and individuals all came from the Democrats. Even now, the Republicans won’t send more money for those groups; instead they want to help big business more, which is actually doing fine at the moment.
The conclusion is that unless you are independently wealthy, and I mean really, really wealthy, it makes no sense to vote Republican.
2. Social Security: If you are already drawing Social Security or intend to one day, then you should look at how the Republicans are always attacking Social Security as an entitlement that we should not expect. I don’t know about you, but yes, I am entitled to Social Security as I paid into it for years. It is also very much part of my retirement plan.
So, again, unless you are so wealthy that you don’t intend drawing Social Security, you should not vote GOP, as they will try to take it away from you.
3. Healthcare: Are you already on Medicare or do you intend to register for Medicare when the time comes? As far as the Republican policy is concerned no public healthcare for American Citizens, even though the Senators and Congressmen have a “Gold” healthcare plan funded by you and me.
So, once more, unless you can afford to fork out $2,000 per month for you and another $2,000 per month for your significant other, you had better rethink voting Republican.
4. Environment: Most of us in Flagler County enjoy living in such a pristine area, with abundant wildlife, good fishing, clean water and clean air. Well, under the current GOP Administration over 100 environmental laws have been repealed. That’s in less than four years. And mostly to accommodate the desire of the ultra-wealthy for ever more money, even if it is at the expense of being able to leave our children and grandchildren a planet worth living in.
These are just a few things that matter to most people and with which the Republican Senators and Congressmen have no interest in helping us ordinary citizens. Just ask yourself, why are you still voting Republican?
JohnX says
Totally different subject but has anyone heard that Martins is closing?