Severe Weather Tonight Into Saturday with Potential for Isolated Tornadoes

The area of concern will expand Friday night into Saturday. See the map below.

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The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is cautioning residents of northeast Florida, including all of Flagler County and northern Volusia, to be prepared for severe and potentially dangerous weather today, tonight and through late in the day Saturday, with the slight possibility of isolated nighttime tornadoes. The unsettled weather will be followed by a freeze in much of the area.

“Be prepared, tornadoes can come with little to no notice,” Flagler County Emergency Management Chief Jonathan Lord said this morning. “People should sign up to the alert systems so they can get as much warning as possible.”

The weather pattern is part of a complex wet and stormy system that has been moving through northeast Florida for the past 48 hours. The front is a focus for moisture moving from the Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall and a few severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Friday evening. The main threat from this weather will be strong wind gusts. “However,” the National Weather Service said in an advisory, an “isolated tornado is possible especially over interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley.” Conditions will gradually clear from the northwest to the southeast during the day on Saturday, with the frontal system clearing Flagler County by late in the day.

Then a strong Arctic cold front will be crossing the region Friday night into Saturday. Conditions ahead of the front will be conducive for tornadoes and strong wind gusts. While all areas may see severe weather, the greatest risk, what the Weather Service calls an “Enhanced Risk” of severe weather, will be over interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, where wind shear will be stronger and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico more readily available.

Timing on the most significant severe weather is expected to be overnight Friday night in the Enhanced Risk area, leading to increasing risk for nighttime tornadoes, which tend to be deadlier since people are less aware. The public should be encouraged to have some type of warning device with them overnight Friday night, including NOAA weather radios or cell phones with Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) capability. They should also monitor local media channels that broadcast Emergency Alert System warnings.

“That’s our biggest fear,” Lord said of nighttime tornadoes, when people tend to turn off their phones or stop watching TV. “Make sure you can get alerts.”

Phones, tablets and other devices which might be used to monitor weather conditions should be fully charged before the severe weather moves into Flagler. You can sign up for AlertFlagler, the free emergency alert notification system that automatically sends alerts to cell phones, land lines, or email, based on your specific address.

“If it is a tornado warning, that means the clouds are already spinning,” Lord said. The tornado may or may not touch down. But the warning means you must immediately seek shelter in an interior room, stay away from windows, and wait until the warning is lifted.

Have a flashlight available should power be knocked out and identify a safe, interior room. Remember mobile homes and prefabricated structures generally do not provide protection during severe weather, especially older mobiles homes.

Lord said the Emergency Management team will be up all night tonight into Saturday, as it was in December 2019, the last time a tornado struck Flagler, shearing through a 20-mile path at dawn from West Flagler to Flagler Beach, with some damage to property but no loss of life. (See: “EF1 Tornado Struck From West Flagler Through Flagler Beach, With 110 MPH Winds Over 20 Mile-Path.“) Emergency Management had its eyes on the skies since 3 a.m. that night and was anticipating the dangerous weather. “This is what emergency management does and that’s how we protect our community,” Lord said.

“Winter or early spring months people get complacent because that’s when the weather gets nice, which it does, but we also get our most severe storms in late winter and early spring,” Lord said.

Saturday night strong winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph and temperatures will plummet. An inland freeze is possible Saturday night with wind chills in the 20s for the entire area by daybreak Sunday morning. Winds will decrease Sunday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop Friday night and continue through Sunday. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible Saturday into Saturday night and may require a gale warning in the offshore waters.

For Flagler County residents, the Sheltering Tree, the cold-weather shelter, will open Saturday morning at 9 a.m. (it usually opens for overnight stays) and remain open until Sunday at 8 a.m. The shelter is open to anyone who may not have proper heat at home, or who is homeless. Free food is provided. Church on the Rock is at 2200 North State Street in Bunnell. Call 386-437-3258, extension 105 for more information. Flagler County Transportation offers free bus rides from pick up points in the county.