Florida’s proposed property tax amendment would likely pass if the November election were held today, with nearly two-thirds of voters in the state supporting it. But support fractures dramatically along party lines, with Republicans backing the change at nearly three times the rate of Democrats, new Sachs Media polling shows.
The amendment, which would exempt the first $250,000 of homestead property value from taxation on most local levies, has 64% overall support. However, 87% of Republicans would vote “yes,” compared with 62% of independents and just 35% of Democrats.
The measure’s broad appeal cuts across homeowner and renter lines, with nearly identical support from both groups at 65% and 64%, respectively, suggesting renters recognize that property tax values on homes could influence rental rates.
Sachs Media surveyed 850 Florida voters June 22–24 using a random sample of the state voter file. The poll had a 3.8-percentage-point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Beyond the vote itself, Floridians see the amendment as a net economic draw for the state; 42% believe it would make people more likely to move to Florida from another state, compared with 12% who think it would push people out of Florida.
Another 24% expect no real impact, with the remainder unsure of what effects the change would have.
Republicans are most optimistic about the effects of migration, with 52% believing it would attract new residents, compared with 46% of independents and 30% of Democrats. Democrats are more skeptical, with 20% expecting it would drive residents away, compared with just 2% of Republicans.
The amendment would also have divergent effects on housing decisions. Among homeowners, 57% said they would be more likely to stay in their current home if the measure passes, with Republican homeowners most strongly committed to remaining in place at 66%, compared with 55% of independents and 43% of Democrats.
Renters, meanwhile, see it as an opportunity to enter homeownership, with 42% saying they would be more likely to buy a home. Republicans again lead in optimism with 61% saying they’d consider a purchase, followed by independents at 47% and Democrats at 29%.
Most Floridians expect home values to remain stable if the amendment passes. Fifty-four percent predict no change, while 33% expect values to increase and 12% anticipate a decline.
Republicans are more bullish on home appreciation at 42%, compared with 34% of independents and 22% of Democrats, with 25% expecting values to decline, versus 3% of Republicans.
Lawmakers passed legislation to place the proposed amendment, a priority for Gov. Ron DeSantis, on the Nov. 3 ballot on party-line votes during a Special Session on June 2. If approved
by at least 60% of voters, it would progressively raise homestead exemptions to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with subsequent increases tied to inflation.
School taxes would remain capped at $25,000, and new residents would start with a $50,000 exemption, reaching full benefits after 5 years.
State economists have estimated the amendment could cost local governments $11.86 billion annually once fully implemented, with impacts accelerating over time. By fiscal year 2028-29, counties could lose $8.775 billion in revenue. Larger urban counties like Miami-Dade would face $445 million in cuts, while smaller rural counties dependent on homestead property taxes could lose up to 35% of their revenue.
Supporters argue the measure addresses inadequate homestead relief, counteracts over-taxation by local governments and rightly returns property tax revenue to residents as home values have appreciated.
Critics note its effects haven’t been properly studied and warn it would force severe cuts to services, from public safety to libraries, while state budget pressures limit Tallahassee’s ability to backstop local government shortfalls.
–Jesse Scheckner, Florida Politics
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