Poll Shows Homestead Amendment Can Pass–If Voters Are Kept in the Dark About Consequences

New polling from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows Amendment 3 has a narrow path to passage on Florida’s General Election ballot this November — but one contingent almost entirely on voters not knowing what the measure would do to local budgets.

When the amendment was framed as one that “would phase out taxes on homestead property, other than those directed to schools” and “would require local governments to use property taxes only for core public services,” it barely edged past the 60% threshold needed to pass, with 40% of respondents strongly supporting it and another 21% saying they somewhat support it. Only 32% opposed it in that framing. Without details of its effects, 81% of Republicans backed the plan, along with 60% of voters registered with neither party and 34% of Democrats.

But an informed-ballot scenario painted a darker picture. When respondents were told that raising the homestead exemption to $150,000 next year and $250,000 in 2028 would deprive local governments of $11.86 billion in revenue — a figure from the Florida Legislature’s nonpartisan Office of Economic and Demographic Research — support cratered. The question went underwater by two points and landed 15 points shy of the bar it needs to clear: just 30% strongly supported it and 15% somewhat supported it, while 47% opposed.

Even fully informed, 68% of Republicans and 72% of Donald Trump‘s 2024 voters still backed the plan, compared with just 18% of Democrats and 40% of voters aligned with neither party.

The poll suggests opponents have a rare opening to sink the measure simply by telling voters what it would do — especially in Republican strongholds, where the most support remains to be eroded.

Commuter counties with less commercial development and more revenue drawn from homestead property taxes would be hit hardest proportionally, according to some estimates. St. Lucie could face the steepest loss at 35% of its revenue, with Clay, Baker, Citrus, and Hernando counties all facing losses of more than 30%. Flagler, Volusia, Hernando, and Sumter counties would each see at least two-thirds of homes potentially affected by the exemption increase.

Larger urban counties would absorb the biggest hit in raw dollars, according to the Florida Association of Counties. Miami-Dade would see a $445 million revenue decrease as soon as Fiscal Year 2028-29. By the same point, Hillsborough could lose $353 million, Broward roughly $326 million, Duval $277 million, and Orange $253 million.

The irony is baked in: while ideologically driven Republicans in smaller counties may relish a chance to rein in “woke” urban governments, that reckoning can only be delivered by imposing proportionally worse outcomes on their own backyards.

Political committees have emerged in opposition to the plan, while no organized effort in support has materialized.

Gov. Ron DeSantis spent close to a year selling the concept of property tax elimination, then distanced himself from the final legislative product, saying it didn’t go as far as he wanted.

“What the Legislature did wasn’t my proposal … in terms of leading the effort … I’m not going to do it,” he said in June.

The Governor said he likes that the Legislature put a version of what he wanted before voters, but still wishes the plan had included a trust fund for local governments and had reached school taxes, as his original version intended.

Likely Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds also supports the proposal but perceives deficiencies of his own, particularly the lack of a backstop for the state’s 29 fiscally constrained counties.

Should the amendment pass, homestead exemptions for Floridians who own primary residences by the end of this year would rise to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with further increases tied to the Consumer Price Index.

School taxes would not be subject to the increased exemption and would stay at $25,000.

Newer residents would qualify for a $50,000 exemption to start, deriving the full benefit after five years.

The amendment would cap assessment increases on other property at 5% a year.

Local governments would be limited to funding public safety, infrastructure, schools, debt service, and pensions. County constitutional officers such as Elections Supervisors, Clerks of Court, Property Appraisers, and County and City Commissions would also be funded.

The homestead exemption would be portable, letting residents move from one primary residence to another without losing it.

The poll was conducted July 8 through 17 and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Republicans made up 46% of the sample, Democrats 33%, and the remainder was classified as “NPA/Other.”

–A.G. Gancarski, Florida Politics