New polling from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows Amendment 3 has a narrow path to passage on Florida’s General Election ballot this November — but one contingent almost entirely on voters not knowing what the measure would do to local budgets.
When the amendment was framed as one that “would phase out taxes on homestead property, other than those directed to schools” and “would require local governments to use property taxes only for core public services,” it barely edged past the 60% threshold needed to pass, with 40% of respondents strongly supporting it and another 21% saying they somewhat support it. Only 32% opposed it in that framing. Without details of its effects, 81% of Republicans backed the plan, along with 60% of voters registered with neither party and 34% of Democrats.
But an informed-ballot scenario painted a darker picture. When respondents were told that raising the homestead exemption to $150,000 next year and $250,000 in 2028 would deprive local governments of $11.86 billion in revenue — a figure from the Florida Legislature’s nonpartisan Office of Economic and Demographic Research — support cratered. The question went underwater by two points and landed 15 points shy of the bar it needs to clear: just 30% strongly supported it and 15% somewhat supported it, while 47% opposed.
Even fully informed, 68% of Republicans and 72% of Donald Trump‘s 2024 voters still backed the plan, compared with just 18% of Democrats and 40% of voters aligned with neither party.
The poll suggests opponents have a rare opening to sink the measure simply by telling voters what it would do — especially in Republican strongholds, where the most support remains to be eroded.
Commuter counties with less commercial development and more revenue drawn from homestead property taxes would be hit hardest proportionally, according to some estimates. St. Lucie could face the steepest loss at 35% of its revenue, with Clay, Baker, Citrus, and Hernando counties all facing losses of more than 30%. Flagler, Volusia, Hernando, and Sumter counties would each see at least two-thirds of homes potentially affected by the exemption increase.
Larger urban counties would absorb the biggest hit in raw dollars, according to the Florida Association of Counties. Miami-Dade would see a $445 million revenue decrease as soon as Fiscal Year 2028-29. By the same point, Hillsborough could lose $353 million, Broward roughly $326 million, Duval $277 million, and Orange $253 million.
The irony is baked in: while ideologically driven Republicans in smaller counties may relish a chance to rein in “woke” urban governments, that reckoning can only be delivered by imposing proportionally worse outcomes on their own backyards.
Political committees have emerged in opposition to the plan, while no organized effort in support has materialized.
Gov. Ron DeSantis spent close to a year selling the concept of property tax elimination, then distanced himself from the final legislative product, saying it didn’t go as far as he wanted.
“What the Legislature did wasn’t my proposal … in terms of leading the effort … I’m not going to do it,” he said in June.
The Governor said he likes that the Legislature put a version of what he wanted before voters, but still wishes the plan had included a trust fund for local governments and had reached school taxes, as his original version intended.
Likely Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds also supports the proposal but perceives deficiencies of his own, particularly the lack of a backstop for the state’s 29 fiscally constrained counties.
Should the amendment pass, homestead exemptions for Floridians who own primary residences by the end of this year would rise to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with further increases tied to the Consumer Price Index.
School taxes would not be subject to the increased exemption and would stay at $25,000.
Newer residents would qualify for a $50,000 exemption to start, deriving the full benefit after five years.
The amendment would cap assessment increases on other property at 5% a year.
Local governments would be limited to funding public safety, infrastructure, schools, debt service, and pensions. County constitutional officers such as Elections Supervisors, Clerks of Court, Property Appraisers, and County and City Commissions would also be funded.
The homestead exemption would be portable, letting residents move from one primary residence to another without losing it.
The poll was conducted July 8 through 17 and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Republicans made up 46% of the sample, Democrats 33%, and the remainder was classified as “NPA/Other.”
–A.G. Gancarski, Florida Politics
W. Hill says
Keep me in the dark then! We beed less from the government.
Laurel says
Well, that says it all, doesn’t it?
JimboXYZ says
Wasn’t the growth supposed to pay for itself ? Not really worried, the local Government will turn around & raise tax rates to cover this elsewhere as a utility & other services fee & usage rate like we’ve seen too often. They’ll get their money one way or another, even if the County Assessor starts to inflate the assessed values of homes. It’s how $ 100K houses will become $ 500K-1M houses. The Homestead Exemption will have to be raised again at some point. Sometimes you need $ six hunded fiddy dollars to pay for that and that’s the new normal. Bidenomics of it all. Inflation ends up killing off any consumer purchasing power for a weak domestic dollar. Under Biden-Harris the US dollar was strong internationally, but weak domestically, which is where out money gets spent. 4 years of the Biden soft landing crashing harder under Trump & anyone in the future. Biden wasn’t worth ever relatively electing into power. And as inflation eats into incomes, life will be financial hardships like never before. Hey, if Trump can’t reverse the 4 years of the Delaware Liar, who can ? Musk even said it, growing the economy is a dog chasing it’s own tail, something that never gets caught up. Trump was doing as well as anyone could hope for on gasoline prices, then they killed the Assohollah of Iran. And now we have $ 5/gallon gasoline vs the $ 2.75/gallon & falling for gasoline prices.
Jay Gardner says
The County Property Appraiser does not inflate values. Period. The fact that you would say that shows that you don’t know what I do for a living or who I work for. I certainly do not work for the county or city, nor do they approve my budget. Feel free to show me one example of us inflating values. During the downturn (2007 to 2012), the taxable value was reduced from 12.2 billion down to 6.2 billion. The market dictates how we value properties.
What Else Is New says
Hogwash.
PB says
Paint it any way you want. Finally a way to get the politicians to tighten the purse strings. You cannot convince me there is no waste in government. Now we will see it. Vote YES! Don’t listen to those that say service will be cut!! We will survive!!
Deborah Coffey says
LOL. And, all that money will go to Tallahassee. You don’t think there’s no waste and corruption there? Better hope you never need 911 or the fire department.
PB says
????
The dude says
Yeah… the MAGA morons you MAGA morons have repeatedly elected here in the 21st century will simply cut services before any “purse strings” are “tightened”…
Nothing, and I repeat NOTHING in their history says different.
You fools just can’t learn from history. And I don’t mean the sanitized, white washed, state of FL approved history, I mean ACTUAL history.
Steven Sykes says
Blaise Ingoglia has already shown there is much wasteful spending by local governments, especially the large coastal communities. Those in doubt look up Blaise Ingoglia head of Florida Agency for Fiscal Oversight. It’s quite a shocker, seeing what all your local governments are spending your money own.
Pierre Tristam says
Blaise Ingoglia is demonstrably full of shit.
Laurel says
Clearly!
He, like Byron Donalds, is on YouTube like you cannot believe! That tells me there is a whole lot of corporate money involved in those commercials.
“Blaise Ingoglia’s campaign funding primarily comes from large donations, with significant contributions from entities like U.S. Sugar, which donated $50,000, and Value Underwriters II, which contributed $25,000. Overall, he has amassed approximately $6.5 million to spend on his campaign.”
– Search Assist, Florida Politics
“Byron Donalds’ campaign has received significant donations from the insurance industry, agriculture interests, and fossil fuel-related sectors. Additionally, he has been supported by various political action committees (PACs) that contribute to his campaign finances.”
– Search Assist, theparadiseprogressive.com, eenews.net
Yeah, another couple of fiscally responsible Republican politicians looking our for us regular Floridians.
The money these two raised could be better spent feeding Florida’s children, but…you know who comes first.
Government of the money, by the money, for the money.
Deborah Coffey says
Ingoglia is a first class liar. Why do so many people continue to allow themselves to be conned?
DaleL says
Steven, Blaise Ingoglia has ACCUSED local governments of wasteful spending. His accusations are not proof. Until his agency releases detailed data on his conclusions, nothing is really known.
What is known is that his own office has committed wasteful spending.
“File Under ‘Ironic’: Florida’s DOGE Czar Wasted $30K of Taxpayer Money
Blaise Ingoglia is auditing local governments for waste, but he used taxpayer money on video services for his own office.”
Miami New Times, September 2, 2025
RobdaSlob says
I don’t think you need a pole to tell you that if you don’t convince people you are spending their money responsibly then they are going to be upset and want stop the practice.
Also why do politicians create things like homestead exemption and not link it to CPI. Florida implemented its first homestead exemption in the 1930’s, did not increase it until 1980’s and did not link it to CPI until last year. By the way that original 5k is worth about 125k today.
VCP says
I’m wondering if one way to make up for the decrease in revenue is to allow more development to get the money from developers?
T.S says
I agree with PB government can cut 10 percent and survive . Cut the waste !!!!! Everyone is doom and gloom . Remember the bridge to nowhere
Kelliann says
Good healthy lobbying dose from the League of Cities, I see. Tell people it’ll lose and they’ll give up and won’t vote – that is the strategy. Ignore and vote anyway.
Laurel says
Let me explain how it works in government. During recessions, local government jobs look good. They pay less, but are steady and have benefits such as healthcare, which private industry does not always provide. When times are good, the best talent and smartest people leave local government jobs, and go for the higher paying jobs in private industry. However, if local government jobs are cut, services are cut, and pay and benefits are cut, then these jobs do not look good. Talented and smart people will leave. Local government will not be able to attract them. Why would it?
Y’all cannot believe that somehow, this will make local government run better or smarter. If you are complaining about your services now, just wait until there’s no one to provide them. Keep your complaints to yourselves. I see that a couple of articles on the subject, showing just a few possible cuts, have caused negative reactions. You ain’t seen nothing yet!
The Republican politicians are purposely putting out this plan without any information on how it will effect you, and what exactly the results will be. If they did, it wouldn’t work for them. Doesn’t that make you suspicious? Why, on God’s green Earth, would you gladly vote for something with no real plan, or without knowing how it will effect you? This is incredibly short-sighted. If you want better service, and be informed of how it will effect you, demand your politicians to show you exactly how the plan works. Currently, with blind acceptance, they will not provide you with proper information. This is intentional, and you should be wary. After all, what’s the big hurry? Why would you deny a full and complete plan that you can scrutinize for your own benefit? Think about that.
DaleL says
The Homestead Exemption amendment is designed to prevent a blue wave in Florida. It is a sleight of hand, a deception.
“…68% of Republicans and 72% of Donald Trump‘s 2024 voters still backed the plan,…”
It is really designed to get Republican voters to the polls in November. Without it, Trump’s failed policies might just cause some of his supporters to stay home. Just a reminder, Trump promised no endless foreign wars and $2 gasoline. How’s that working out?
The dude says
Now it looks like he’s going to cut Medicare Drug benefits for seniors…
That will go over well with the olds in FL.
The MAGA dead enders will, of course, cheer as they trudge to the pharmacy to pay higher prices. For when it comes to their dear orange leader, they are ALL IN on the whole concept of sacrifice for the greater good. (“greater good” meaning whatever vanity project the orange dear leader wants)
Higher prescription costs in the name of building a ballroom nobody wanted or needed, a big beautiful arch, $1m for banners hanging in front the DOJ, a super expensive plane retrofit for a “flying palace” that is still unsafe for POTUS to fly in, etc…
I could go on and on and on, but it would fall on deaf MAGA ears.
The examples of services cut in the service of grift, fraud and waste are endless, both at the national level and at the state level.