The national economy added 73,000 jobs in July and 106,000 in the last three months combined, the poorest quarter in job creation since the massive job losses of April 2020 as Covid shut down much of the economy. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2. It has hovered between 4 and 4.2 percent for the past 14 months.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics had initially announced that 144,000 jobs were created in May, and 147,000 in June. It revised those figures today to just 19,000 in May and 14,000 in June, eliminating 258,000 jobs, an unusually sharp revision. On the president’s watch so far this year average job creation has been 85,000 a month, half the job monthly creation of 168,000 in the last year of the Biden administration. Tariffs, higher interest rates and uncertainty for employers have contributed to the slowdown, as has the continued, intentional shedding of jobs in the federal workforce.
In a related trend, personal and business bankruptcy filings rose nationally 11.5 percent in the twelve-month period ending June 30, compared to the previous year, according to the federal court system. In Florida, bankruptcies rose 23 percent statewide–and 27 percent in the Middle District that includes Flagler County, from 18,471 last year to 23,442 in the last 12 months.
“The trend for bankruptcies has continued to spike and it will in my estimation continue to spike even more over the coming couple of years,” says Scott Spradley, a bankruptcy attorney in Flagler Beach (and a city commissioner there). “There are a few reasons for it. One of them stems from Covid. During that time many people found themselves under-employed or unemployed.” They went into their savings and ran up credit card debt. “For many, they simply have not been able to keep up, including with credit card debt, which has dramatically increased bankruptcies.”
Household debt hit $18.2 trillion in the first quarter of the year, a record, $5 trillion of it unrelated to mortgages, also a record, according to the Federal Reserve, with credit cards accounting for $1.18 trillion of that, a $67 billion increase, year-over-year.
Corporate bankruptcies have also increased, Spradley said, as businesses have struggled to find capable employees and the labor pool has thinned (and is thinning further, with the removal of undocumented workers). “I’m seeing more and more families not as a result of extravagant spending but as a last resort,” he said.
“Add to that the significant amount of layoffs, whether it’s government or businesses associated with government agencies, and that has led to additional hardships on families and businesses,” Spradley said. “So regrettably, it looks like a trend that’s going to continue for some time.”
Federal government employment continued to decline in July, losing 12,000 jobs, and is down by 84,000 since reaching a peak in January. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed. The month’s job gains were in health care (50,000 jobs) social assistance (18,000) and individual and family services (21,000), with other sectors stalled. Manufacturing lost 11,000, the third straight month of losses in that sector–the very sector the Trump administration claimed tariffs would benefit. Instead, tariffs have increased the cost of raw materials.
Average tariffs–in essence, a tax on all imports–stand at 15 percent today, compared to 2 percent at the beginning of the year. Put another way: an import costing $100 would have cost $102 with import duty in January, but now costs $115.
Still higher tariffs are scheduled to go in effect at the end of next week.
There were 7.2 million unemployed and an additional 4.7 million employed part-time for economic reasons–either because their full-time hours were cut back or because they could not find full-time work. An additional 6.2 million are not in the labor force but want a job (and who are not counted among the unemployed). That figure has increased by more than half a million over the past year. The alternative unemployment and underemployment rate, which accounts for the unemployed, the discouraged who have dropped out of the workforce, and those employed part-time for economic reasons, is at 7.9 percent. Those unemployed for half a year or more account for a quarter of the jobless.
For all that, consumer confidence inched up just a bit in July, according to the Conference Board. “Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence.” Based on the latest indicators, the rebound may be short-lived.
Pogo says
@Welcome to Trumpruptcy
… it’s like bankruptcy — only the same.
9For we know in part, and we prophesy in part. 10But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall be done away. 11When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things. 12For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known. 13And now abideth faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.
1 Corinthians 13:12 Context, King James Version (KJV)
Ben says
Haha and no one is surprised we are experiencing the biggest theft in human history and daily trade terror. Breaking news society is broken and only the rich benefit. Life is no longer affordable for the majority of people.
Endless dark money says
Republican have cause a recession every time they are elected for the past 100 years yet people don’t seem to know that! Now we have an orange convict and pedo so full blown depression?
Skibum says
But, of course, the orange terror will attempt yet again to frame the latest horrible economic news as somehow “Biden’s fault”… or maybe this too is the fault of Obama, maybe even Hillary Clinton, or maybe even Herbert Hoover, who knows. The one thing we all know is that the idiot who IS actually responsible for the downturn in the economy due to his tariff tirade and kindergarten scope knowledge of economics will NEVER take responsibility for anything bad that results from his own mindless decisions!
Maga sheeple, are you happy yet? Overjoyed by all of this very continuous negative economic news? Still waiting with baited breath for the price of eggs and other groceries to come down as promised at the start of orange julius ceasar’s reign in January? Still cannot believe how come your electric bills, taxes and other essentials are not “1,000%, maybe 1,500% lower” due to the idiot’s moronic mathematical nonsense that he recently spouted from that hole in his face? But still in rapturous love with your “dear leader” no matter how much damage he is causing to our already great country???
Yippie kai yea, you sheeple would follow him right off the cliff… of course he would divert course at the last second and gladly watch in amazement as the sheeple flock fell into oblivion, verifying in his own little mind that yes, it is true that he really could have shot someone in the middle of 5th Ave and STILL not lost any of his supporters… Amazing!!!
Susan says
You mean the Orange dipshit and his tariffs aren’t helping lol? Forced recession is good for the billionaires! Guess rcons don’t know who pays the tariffs! It’s you! Breaking news a single pound of beef is more than the minimum wage!! Good thing those republicans blocked increases 27 times! Oh and arrest the homeless! What a terror show! Make it all about jobs then cause a global recession haha! Can’t wait to see the end of this!
Susan says
Remember the people that said disabled Jonny needs to work to keep medical care also intentionally caused a forced recession that cut jobs. Lowest job numbers since last time the moron was in charge! Maybe full blown depression this time!! We up to 400 years of salary we spent so he can play golf . Starve that kid though, cut his education! Nuther billion for Elon woot woot!
Susan says
Republicans murdered America! taken for profits for a few pedos and their protection cult. Use all the garbage numbers and statistics you want, when an “unemployment “ number isn’t an actual representation of number of unemployed people it’s broken. U6 is more accurate as they have known since 1970s usually around double the advertised figure. Make policy on bad information sound familiar? I doubt the orange fraud (biggest fraud on planet earth) would fraud numbers though haha! Tariffs caused this recession and we will see from here probably full blown depression with the Cheeto pedo making trade policies!
Just say'n says
All the job gains were american born jobs an no foreign born good right?Job losses where predominately government jobs,also good remember they could just learn to code like they told the coal workers during the green new scam…remember. It a big ship to turn around and there will be some pain but it will all work out just fine.The private sector creates tax revenue and the government absorbs it,less government workers less tax burden.After all we’ve all delt with a government agency and im pretty sure not many are overly impressed.
Ray W, says
Thank you for publishing this article, Mr. Tristam and for focusing on the downward revision is the jobs created figures for the months of May and June.
I have forgotten the name of the FlaglerLive commenter who in 2024, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics downwardly revised the paychecks created figure by 818,000 jobs over six months, bitterly accused the Biden administration of manipulating the figure for political gain. But I have not forgotten his intent.
Now that the paychecks created figures previously released for the months of May and June have been downwardly revised by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by 258,000, I fully expect the commenter to excoriate the Trump administration on the FlaglerLive forum for the administration’s manipulating of the paychecks created statistics for political gain.
At the time of the commenter’s accusation, I knew that the commenter was wrong in casting blame. I pointed out to FlaglerLive readers that the monthly BLS statistics are derived from a limited set of data that is obtained for the purpose of creating the monthly report. Then, after more data comes in, the BLS updates the data, in the next month’s report. Then, after even more data comes in, the BLS updates the data a second time in the next month’s report. Then, after a longer period of time, the BLS utilizes a wider net of received data to revise the figures even further. This process goes on for years. Eventually, the findings are declared permanent. In this way, businesses and other government agencies can obtain statistically reliable, yet limited initial information on which to base decisions, knowing all while that the data may change as more complete data from a wider set of sources becomes available.
I argue to FlaglerLive readers that no one should consider today’s paychecks created data completely and finally accurate; it is nothing more than an intentionally created snapshot view into the ever-changing status of the American economy. There is a reason why the Fed openly states that it prefers to rely on year-over-year figures as opposed to weekly or monthly figures. But the Fed still takes note of the preliminary data.
Make of this what you will.
FlaglerLive says
@Susan, U6 is included in this article. That’s the reference to the alternative measure of unemployment and underemployment.
Villein says
Looks like the “temporary pain” is about to kick in. Thing is- if this doesn’t work out, there will be no going back. World trade will adapt to the tariffs and politics. There will be winners and losers. But once the changes are done they won’t be undone.
The roll out of trump’s policy has been chaotic, seemingly impulsive. There seems to be no plan b. If there’s no response from our leaders if the train starts to come off the rails, as there has been in previous economic calamities, the damage could be catastrophic.
Laurel says
This is not good. I’m not buying the “be patient,” or “a little pain,” or any other of like rhetoric, backing a man who just tossing out the “unknown” and expecting miracles. A spoiled, selfish brat is in charge.
Lately, we’ve noticed less people in shops. I’m hoping that it is only because of the record heat (thank goodness climate change is a hoax, right?) and things will pick up again.
Our group of friends are basically well off. Not rich, but in comparison to many countries, we can buy the food we want, we can purchase clothing, we can air condition our homes, we have decent transportation, we have plenty of water on tap, and we don’t have to worry about our monthly bills. But now, I’m hearing that some of these friends are starting to worry, and are considering tightening up. That’s not a good sign. That’s money withheld from the economy.
I truly hope this passes, and our life savings, Social Security and Medicare will continue. I hope for our daughter, fiancé and stepdaughter, that they will have the chance to live safe, healthy lives in a truly free country. I hope for our granddaughter that she will live a satisfactory life, with an interesting career, and healthy lifestyle, and not have to be pressured into becoming some trad-wife, with second class status, and with no control over her future.
I am afraid our country is going in a very wrong direction, catering only to the very rich, and egocentric. I hope I am wrong.
Atwp says
Because America don’t want a woman President. America cast their ballots for a lying felon, may the economic pain began. Thank God Republican voters will feel the pain too. Dark days are falling on America, thank God. Did you all see on the news that Trump had the person fired who gave the job numbers. He said they are fake. I’m saying he is a fake poor excuse of a leader. Tariffs, high prices, don’t fogey about bad gun control, look at the shootings recently, under Republican watch.
Atwp says
States that didn’t support him during the election will probably get little to no funding, the news is Republicans live in those states too. As long as Trump voters are hurt by his crazy decisions, that is fine with me. A bad depression would be great under Trumps administration. He will not take the blame. That should show his supporters what crazy nut he is.
Ray W, says
Here are some bullet points from the Bureau of Labor Statistics “Employment Situation Summary” for July, released August 1, 2015.
– “This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.”
Gleaned from the Household Survey Data:
– “Among the unemployed, the number of new entrants increased by 275,000 in July to 985,000. New entrants are unemployed people who are looking for their first job.”
– “The labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent, changed little in July, but has declined by 0.5 percentage point over the year. The employment-population ratio, at 59.6 percent also changed little over the month but was down 0.4 percentage point over the year.”
Gleaned from the Establishment Survey Data:
– “Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $36.44 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.34.”
– “The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in July. In manufacturing, the average workweek held at 40.1 hours, and overtime edged down to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours in July.”
– “Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)”
At the bottom of the Employment Situation Summary is an entry enclosed in block. In it is contained language about how establishment survey estimates are revised.
Here is language from within the block:
– “2025 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data to be released on September 9, 2025”
– “Each year, the establishment survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. At 10:00 a.m. (ET) on September 9, 2025, BLS will release the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey data. This is the same day that the first-quarter 2025 data from QCEW will be issued.”
– “The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release in February 2026.”
Make of this what you will.
Me?
Today’s paychecks created figure of 77,000 for July is considered an “estimate” based on preliminary data. The more gullible among us consider the figure to be written in stone; it cannot be updated unless the update favors their political interests. These more gullible people are wrong in their belief, as they so often are.
What is really happening is that the estimates of paychecks added comes from data obtained by researchers who survey businesses each month on how many employees they have on payroll and on how many hours they worked. The benchmark comes from a completely different source of data, which is derived from state unemployment insurance records.
In September, the August paychecks “estimate” will issue, and the first of two revisions, i.e., updates, of the July paychecks estimate will occur, after more data from employers is received by BLS researchers.
In October, the September paychecks “estimate” will issue, and the second of two revisions, i.e., updates, of the July paychecks estimate will occur, after even more data from employers is collected by BLS researchers.
In September, the BLS will release a “preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey data.” This means that the BLS, after receiving updated unemployment insurance data from state records, is preparing to consider adopting a final updated benchmark for the upcoming year against which revisions to monthly paychecks estimates will be measured, i.e., calculated. This means that the July paychecks estimate may once more be revised.
In February 2026, the final benchmark revision for 2025, based on state records for unemployment insurance, will be issued, which means that the July jobs estimate may be revised once again.
Let me be blunt to FlaglerLive readers. The monthly paychecks figures have always been called “estimates.” For decades, revisions to the figures have occurred in the first following month’s report and then again in the second following month’s report, when more and more employers answer surveys about their employee numbers. The figures are periodically adjusted as the benchmark is adjusted, after state unemployment insurance records are updated.
The monthly paychecks estimates have never been intended to be cast in stone.
The professional lying class that sits at the top of one of our two political parties knows these things. This explains why the professional liars are already saying the low paychecks created estimates for this month have been skewed for political purposes, even though they claimed the opposite when more favorable estimates from previous reports was claimed by them to be true.
Nothing changed in the BLS data collection and interpretation methods. The only thing that changed was the perceived necessity for the professional liars to lie about the estimates. The hope of these professional liars is that the people who so gullibly accept their other lies as truth will then launder the new lies to others.
Pig Farmer says
He orchestrated a coup. It failed.
He was a convicted felon.
He rose to power on a wave of divisive propaganda and hateful anti-immigrant rhetoric.
He promised to make things great again.
He threatened to annex his neighbors.
I’m referring, of course, to Adolf Hitler.
What? Did this sound like someone else?
Ed P says
I firmly agree with Ray W. His final paragraph is of importance. Take note.
If the Federal Reserve thought yesterdays job report, which they were privy to, was as damning as my “neighbors” commenting above, we would have seen a rate reduction.
My only question is, what kind of person rails against our country and takes joy in anything harming Americans? You should reassess your ideologies. If not your ideologies, then your pure hatred for Trump.
Finally, the global trade reset occurring is progressing extremely well. I’m fact, so good, even the left is starting to admit it’s successes. It may take more time, with some short term disruptions, but if successful, will reestablish the American Dream for future generations. It’s that and more.
Ed P says
Ray W,
The only issue I have, is there really only one professional lair cohort?
Me thinkith they all are liars. No Political party holds the patent on lying, covering up, or spewing misinformation.
I believe honesty has morphed into a relative term. You profess, more better or less bad. The word honesty appears to have lost an absolute meaning, similar to the word fair.
Even Ai, due to information/disinformation mining is subject to errors.
Not really intellectually honest that you keep pointing out one liar class over another….
Glass houses don’t exist for a reason.
Skibum says
The statistics, the data, is what it is. But drumph doesn’t like facts, he cannot tolerate truth or reality if those do not somehow favor him and make him out to be much wiser than he really is. The only statistics that drumph likes are:
* He is the most physically fit man to ever be elected president
* He is 6′ 4″ and weighs a slim 220 pounds
* When standing in front of any mirror, he can verify that he is any woman’s dream come true
* He doesn’t have to put any makeup on his face because he has the smoothest, firmest, natural tan in history from all of his athletic pursuits
* He won the 2016 presidential election by a landslide, and was the biggest election victory in the history of the U.S.
* He is so very wealthy, very possibly far richer than anyone… and nobody can ever be great if they are not rich
So we all know exactly why the person at the helm of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was fired. She either didn’t understand that it was her real job to obfuscate or mislead anyone about the latest job numbers, or she was unwilling to lie about what the statistics actually show… you know, that “data” thing.
So now drumph will pick some other random fool who answers the only question that all of his sycophants must answer correctly to obtain any job working in this corrupt administration, and that question pertains to loyalty above all else to heir drumph, no matter what. They must not adhere to ethics, morality or truth if those will make drumph look bad, or worse, incompetent. And they must be willing to let drumph steamroll right over themselves at some point in their tenure to save their master because as we have seen time and time again, eventually all will somehow be put under the bus to save drumph from ever having to be held responsible for whatever bad happens on his watch.
Ray W, says
Hello Ed P.
Are you certain that the July BLS paychecks report was available to the Fed? In the language of the BLS report is a description of an “embargo” on the report until 8:30 a.m., August 1, 2025. That suggests that the Fed did not have access to that report until it was released. The Fed met this past Tuesday and Wednesday.
I tend toward your suggestion that had the Fed obtained the report before or during its two-day meeting, the vote to hold the lending rate steady may have been different. And I anticipate that the next meeting in September might see a vote for a lending rate cut.
I agree with you in part on the global trade reset. Still far too early to determine the likely outcome of the reset, but both favorable and unfavorable data is emerging.
I prefer the new Ed P. over the old Ed P. Those professional liars who hate certain Americans need to be opposed.
Trump The Facts says
Title of this article should read” U.S. Job Creation Rises to Highest 3-Month Total Since Trump’s Amazing, Bankruptcies Fall 27% in Florida’s Middle District” or else Trump might take site offline, lol. He can only hear good data, or trumper tantrum’s are thrown, honest people are fired, and those positions filled with ‘lil Trumpets.
Laurel says
Ed P: uh- huh.
Fact check everything says
Arguing with a republican is like playing chess with a pigeon, no matter how good you are the pigeon will shit on the board and strut around like he won!
Dan says
Got what you voted for more pain and suffering!!!will only get worse with this regime. Use real info and it’s easy to see this is a bad situation!stop the orange terror!
Ray W, says
Ed P., in an above comment in this thread, you argue that I should be presenting all sides of an argument. Your inability to understand the concepts of persuasion, advocacy, and argumentation dismays me.
I repeatedly tell you, and all FlaglerLive readers, that my intent is to focus on both the vengeful among us and on those FlaglerLive commenters who launder the many lies issued by the political party they follow.
I repeatedly tell you that I want you to become a better commenter so as to present in a higher quality format one or more of the many possible other sides of any argument.
Yet you still insist that I am supposed to do your work for you and claim that there is something wrong when I don’t do your work for you.
For more than 30 years of my professional life, I zealously advocated on behalf my clients, fully expecting opposing counsel to do the same for their clients. Zealous advocacy has never mandated that one advocate present all of the opposing advocate’s sides of the argument. Sometimes, it is advantageous to present two or more sides of an argument. Sometimes, it isn’t. This is how legal reasoning, a.k.a., argumentation, works.
For example, for nearly four years now I have been arguing that the nearly $3 trillion in unfunded federal stimulus money that President Trump signed into law in 2020 had an impact on our economic recovery from the damaging effects of the pandemic. So, too, did the $3 trillion that former President Biden signed into law. For that matter, so, too, did the Fed’s reduction of the lending rate to 0.0% for a period of time. So, too, did the Fed’s expansion of the credit available to lending institutions by $3 trillion above what had already been extended.
These factually unassailable positions are why I disagree(d) with the term Bidenomics. The better term, to me, was Trudenomics. Both of our presidents played a role in the recovery that led to President Trump inheriting the strongest economy in the world, an economy that, according to the Economist and the Wall Street Journal, was the “envy of the world.”
As aside, we have yet to fully come to understand the effects of these unfunded spending decisions on the size of the federal debt, which is looking like a bigger and bigger problem on its own.
Yes, there is a place for advocating for the other side. Everyone who reads my comments knows that I acknowledged six months ago that it is possible that tariffs can have a positive effect. I repeatedly use the Harley-Davidson example as proof that tariffs, when targeted in a precise direction for a precise effect, can work. I repeatedly state that since no economist has ever seen proposed tariffs of such significant size then it remains possible that sizable tariffs will work. We don’t yet have a working economic model to explain what will happen should the new tariffs ever fully take effect.
Trump really might be playing chess when others are playing checkers. Then again, he might be playing with fire. Time is needed to fully understand what will become of our economy should tariffs jump from an average of some 3% on foreign goods in January 2025 to an average of 20% in September 2025.
How many times do I have to tell you exactly what I am doing for you to pick up on it? I am an advocate. Everyone else but you knows that I am an advocate. Please stop being clueless. It does not befit you.
You, time after time, just say things without understanding what you are saying. Do your job. Learn how to advocate. Better present your arguments. Quit whining about things you refuse to understand.
Ray W, says
In a prior comment on this thread, I quoted language drawn from the July BLS monthly jobs report about an upcoming annual revision to the “benchmark” formula that is to be released for use by the BLS on September 9th.
As I interpret the BLS policy statement, the new benchmark algorithm, when adopted as policy, is to be used when interpreting jobs data not only for reports that will be released during the upcoming year, but also to revise past jobs estimates.
A Benzinga reporter writes that Goldman Sachs economists are just now warning clients that “additional large revisions in coming months” are to be expected when the BLS announces on September 9th its new “benchmark” algorithm.
From the article, the “… benchmark revisions could show a downward adjustment of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs when preliminary data is released on September 9, potentially reducing monthly payroll growth estimates by 45,000 to 80,000 positions over the past year.”
Another publication is taking the position that recent job losses and forced retirements at the BLS are taking a toll on the quality of the data being collected by BLS surveyors and the accuracy of the conclusions drawn from that data. That publication is wondering whether the BLS might lose credibility as a producer of quality data should too few surveyors be employed to collect the data.
Make of this what you will.
Me?
If Goldman Sachs economists are correct in their warnings to their clients, not only is it possible that the most recent paychecks added figures have been overstated, but that the overstatements may turn out to be even bigger than what was reported this week.
It, too me, seems worthwhile to reiterate that statistical interpretations require the latest, most accurate algorithms in order for economists to better understand what is happening in an economy. Each year, BLS statisticians update the “benchmark” algorithm from which algorithm conclusions may be drawn from the data collected by surveyors. As long as I have reading BLS reports, each one has a “seasonally adjusted” figure.
Cut back the number of surveyors, the argument goes, and you collect and interpret less and less data. Pay BLS employees to leave government employment and you might derive fewer and fewer accurate conclusions from the lesser quality data.
I will comment on this over and over again. One of my earliest economic lessons came from a series of newspaper stories published a few years after the welfare statutes were signed into law in 1968.
The 1968 legislation provided funding for welfare administrative positions, i.e., workers to run the new agencies in the many facets of the agency, including investigators whose job it was to find and eliminate welfare fraud.
Under the mantra of small government, once a particular party regained controlled the federal legislature, it cut the number of welfare employees, only it didn’t cut across the board; it cut welfare fraud investigative positions. As I recall the stories, each investigative fraud position that was cut saved the Treasury some $14,000 per year, in 1970’s money. But each fraud investigator, on average, had been uncovering $40,000 per year in fraud. It didn’t make sense to me that cutting $14,000 per year in pay and benefits per investigator, thereby losing the savings of $40,000 per year that each investigator on average was finding, was a good economic idea. But, hey, the legislature cut the size of the federal government, so it had to have been “good”.
Ray W, says
In other economic news, on Friday, Barchart published a story about crude oil prices dropping on the release of negative U.S. economic news, including reports on the labor market.
Here are a few bullet points from the article:
– Baker Hughes, in its weekly report on the status of the oil rig industry, stated that the active oil and gas rig total count dropped by five rigs in the past week, offsetting the previous week’s rise. This means that for 12 of the past 13 weeks, the number of active oil and gas rigs has dropped. According to Baker Hughes, the new rig count is 410. The 5.25-year high number of active oil and gas rigs was 627, set in December 2022.
– The quantity of crude oil being held in tankers stationary for a least seven days rose by 23% to 84.99 million barrels for the week ending on July 25.
– On the other hand, the amount of crude oil held in U.S. storage as of July 25 was 5.6% below the “seasonal 5-year average.”
– U.S. crude oil production last week averaged 13.314 million barrels per day, up 0.3% from the week before, but still “modestly” down from the all-time record weekly average of 13.631 million barrels of crude oil per day set for the week ending 12/6/24.
– The Iraqi government approved a plan to restore oil exports from the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, with exports expected to slowly increase from zero to 230,000 barrels per day. Oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan through Turkey have been suspended since March 2023.
– The EIA reports that worldwide crude oil inventories have been rising at a 1 million barrels per day rate. “[T]he global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption.”
– The U.S. “… manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -1.0 to 48.0, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.5 and the steepest pace of contraction in 9 months.”
Make of this what you will.
Me?
Too many conflicting economic data points. But another publication reports that BP, an international energy company drilling 400 kilometers off the shore of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, found an oil field, named Bumerangue, spanning more than 300 square kilometers. BP says it is one of 10 finds this year, and it is the biggest company find in 25 years. That 1999 gas field find was in the Caspian Sea.
Ray W, says
The Telegraph, a British publication, recently carried an opinion piece written by a former British naval officer who commanded among other vessels an icebreaker; he voiced concerns that China is building up its icebreaking fleet in order to progressively claim sovereignty over ever larger areas of the Arctic, including areas over which the United States now claim sovereignty. In time, he theorizes, China will claim large parts of the Arctic as a potential Chinese economic zone.
The admiral writes that a Chinese polar icebreaker, its first domestically constructed icebreaker, has been spotted in “neutral” international waters north of Alaska. Two more Chinese icebreakers are known to be headed toward the region.
FlaglerLive readers, hopefully, are aware of China’s decades long effort to impose sovereignty over what it calls the “Nine Dash Line” in the region of the China Sea between China, Vietnam and the Philippines. China, through its Nine Dash Line, now claims virtually all of the China Sea as its territory.
In the beginning, China sent “scientific” expeditions into the China Sea, claiming cooperation with its neighbors. Then, equipment was installed in the region. Then, military installations were built to “protect” Chinese interests. Then came “grey zone” harassment of its neighbors. Now, from other reporter, there are a number of Chinese submarine and navy bases, set on shoals that are built up by sand dredged from neighboring waters, complete with airfields.
China has set out its “Nine Dash Line” on maps, claiming that the line now sets the limit of its claims to territory long recognized by international law as belonging to the Philippines and Vietnam. An international court ruled against China’s claims, but China rejected the ruling.
The admiral asserts that China is following its China Sea model in the Arctic.
The above-mentioned Chinese icebreaker has also been observed 130 nautical miles inside the “US Extended Continental Shelf off the coast of Alaska, …” a region over which America claims exclusive rights to seabed resources under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
According to the author, “innocent passage” is one thing. Surveying and unauthorized extraction of minerals or use of fisheries “could infringe on US interests.” China has begun to describe itself as a “near-Arctic state” and that any surveying it is conducting in US waters is “peaceful.”
But there are trillions of dollars’ worth of minerals, oil and gas, and fish in what the author calls the “High North.”
Right now, the U.S. has two “polar-capable” icebreakers, with 18 more, plus 16 tenders, that are used on the Great Lakes. Great Britain has one “polar-capable” icebreaker.
Russia has 41 operational “polar-capable” icebreakers, out of 57 total. China has four icebreakers right now, with a huge nuclear-powered icebreaker expected to join the fleet later this year. China has announced construction plans for a total of 70 icebreakers by 2030.
Make of this what you will.
Sherry says
Thank you Ray W! I personally do NOT “Trust” that trump and those in his administration give a damn about “accuracy” in any data if it does not make trump look good. “Looking Good” is the only goal! Fire those who do not comply!
Ed P says
Ray W,
In response to your 8/4 comments, “and argumentation dismays me “
What you may fail to realize is that I absolutely understand what your positions and intentions of “repeatedly” telling me what is your focus or what you want. It’s crystal clear.
My personal concern is your innate ability to present the “world according to Ray” that might leads some of the weak minded to accept your truths as the absolute truth.
There are always multiple sides to every event and not necessarily a better or less bad interpretation that actually is just that, better. Your opinions and outlooks are from your life’s experiences. I know that you believe yourself to be righteous.
However, your opinions are predisposed to prejudices just as are everyone’s opinions.
Here’s my point. You drill down directionally on details in a purposeful manner, presenting your argument, when I know your intellectual honesty and rigorous research exposes that you are are at times being disingenuous by “comission” rather than “omission”
We both understand omission is normally not a crime. Purposely leaving out factual details to affect/slant the outcome could be a crime.
Example:
Joe Mullins comments. How many times have you presented it in comments when everyone know it was a poorly, misspoken distasteful metaphor. It had zero, none, nada possibility of being factual. The left has no room to criticize.