By Asher Kaufman
For almost a year, Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in increasingly provocative cross-border skirmishes as onlookers warn that this escalating war of attrition could land the region in all-out conflict. The past few days have made that devastating scenario closer to a reality.
First came Israel’s pager and walkie-talkie attack, an unprecedented assault on Hezbollah’s communications that injured thousands of the organization’s operatives. It was followed by the assassination of Ibrahim Aqil, a key Hezbollah leader, who died in an airstrike that also killed other senior commanders of the militant group, as well as some civilians. Hezbollah responded by extending the geographical range of its rockets fired at Israel, targeting both military facilities and civilian neighborhoods across northern Israel. Israel then launched a fresh air assault in which more than 270 people were killed, according to Lebanese health authorities, leading also to the flight of thousands of residents from South Lebanon to the north of the country.
As a scholar of Lebanon and Israel, I have followed the dynamics of this war of attrition since Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas executed an unprecedented and deadly attack on Israel, which responded by bombarding the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah then began firing rockets into northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza.
Despite the high rhetoric and mutual threats of destruction, until recent days neither Israel nor Hezbollah, nor the latter’s sponsor Iran, have shown an interest in a full-scale war. All parties surely know the likely destructive consequences of such an eventuality for themselves: Israel has the military power to devastate Beirut and other parts of Lebanon as it did in Gaza, while even a weakened Hezbollah could fire thousands of missiles at Israeli strategic sites, from the airport to central Tel Aviv, water supply lines and electricity hubs, and offshore gas rigs.
So instead, they have exchanged fire and blows along their shared boundary, with somewhat agreed-upon red lines concerning the geographical scope of attacks and efforts not to intentionally target civilians.
But Israel’s recent attacks in Lebanon may have turned the page of this war of attrition into a new and far more acute situation, putting the region on the brink of a full war. Such a war would wreak havoc in Lebanon and Israel, and might also drag Iran and the United States into direct confrontation. In doing so, it would also fulfill the apparent of the Hamas gunmen who murdered around 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7 in the hope that a heavy-handed Israeli response would draw in more groups across the region.
A dangerous ‘new phase’
Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, has insisted throughout the near-yearlong hostilities that his organization would hold its fire only if a cease-fire agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas. In recent weeks, however, Israel has taken the conflict in the opposite direction.
The country’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, described the coordinated attacks on Hezbolah targets as a “new phase,” adding that the “center of gravity” in the war was moving north into Lebanon. The Israeli government has added the “return of the residents of the north securely to their homes” as an additional war goal.
The assault on Hezbollah’s communications system targeted the organization’s operatives but hit many civilian bystanders, leaving Lebanese in shock, trauma, anger and desperation.
It demonstrated Israel’s tactical military advantage over Hezbollah. The unprecedented penetration into the heart of the organization’s command and rank-and-file structures has never been seen before in any conflict or war globally. It struck Hezbollah in its most vulnerable places and even exposed its coordination with Iran – one of the injured persons from the pager explosions was the Iranian ambassador in Lebanon.
The killing of Akil two days later was another signal that the Israeli government had now decided to try to change the rules of this risky game of reprisals and counter-reprisals. It is clear that rather than the uneasy status quo that defined this war of attrition for nearly a year, Israel’s intent is now to pressure Hezbollah to concede.
Getting out of control
Nasrallah delivered a gloomy and defiant speech in the aftermath of the pager attack. While acknowledging that Hezbollah was severely undermined by this operation, he defined the Israeli attack as a continuation of “multiple other massacres perpetrated by the enemy over decades.”
By doing so, he framed it within a popular historical narrative among many Lebanese and Palestinians who regard Israel as a criminal entity that regularly carries out massacres against innocent civilians.
Nasrallah also insisted that his commitment to supporting Hamas in Gaza remains unwavering.
While stating that Israeli actions have “crossed all red lines” and could amount to a declaration of war, Nasrallah also reiterated a point he had made in previous peaks of this ongoing conflict: that retribution is coming, the only question being of timing and scale. By doing so, Nasrallah hinted that he may still not be interested in a full war.
Israel, on the other hand, appears less circumspect. After almost a full year of contained tension with Hezbollah, Israel’s leaders appear willing to risk an escalation that might get out of control.
It is hard to determine what the strategy behind Israel’s actions is: Since Oct. 7; as the Biden administration has noted, Israel has not displayed a coherent strategy with clear political goals.
Rather, critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggest that he is mainly motivated by his own political survival and the retention of power as the head of state, tying Israel’s interests to his own.
Uniting the ‘axis of resistance’
So where does this leave Nasrallah as he weighs Hezbollah’s response, surely in consultation with Iran? After such devastating blows to Nasrallah’s organization, it is hard to think that Hezbollah would be willing to scale down, stop its cross-border attacks and retreat away from the Israeli border, or give up its commitment to support Hamas in Gaza.
Joseph Eid/AFP via Getty Images
On the other hand, opting for a full-scale war, after spending a year avoiding it, is fraught with risk – both Nasrallah and his sponsors in Tehran know well the high costs of such a war for Hezbollah, Lebanon and potentially also for Iran.
If Hezbollah went to war now against Israel, it would embark on its most consequential move since its foundation in 1982. But it would do so with crippled communications systems and without much of its leadership – some of whom had worked for decades side by side with Nasrallah, building with him the military capacity of the organization.
In some respects, Israelis under Netanyahu’s leadership, and Lebanese in a country increasingly held hostage by Hezbollah’s interests, face similar predicaments: Their well-being is being sacrificed for other priorities.
Netanayhu’s recent statements about concern for Israeli citizens in the north sound hollow after 11 months of pursuing policies that put them more in danger, as well as opposing a Gaza cease-fire deal that would also end hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah has dragged the country into this war against the will of most Lebanese – a decision that has led to significant devastation in parts of a country already suffering extreme political and economic duress.
Nasrallah’s speech described Hezbollah’s predicament as that of all Lebanon – while sending a veiled threat that dissent would not be tolerated. Many Lebanese are undoubtedly sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and resent Israel’s war in Gaza. But at the same time, they may balk at the idea that their own well-being has to be sacrificed in the process.
In the meantime, Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader and mastermind behind the Oct. 7 massacre, may well be looking on at the unfolding events between Israel and Hezbollah with satisfaction. His plan was designed to trigger the unification of all fronts of the so-called “axis of resistance,” which includes the Houthis in Yemen as well as Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups with the hope for a regional war against Israel.
A year later, we are closer than ever to that scenario.
Asher Kaufman is Professor of History and Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
JJB says
Omfg shut up. Will not affect us in the least. Im more worried about our country and what’s happening here not about other countries
Jim says
There you go! The USA won’t have to worry about what goes on in the Middle East. After all, since we’re supplying Israel with most of the ordnance they are using in the wars against Hezbollah and Hamas, there’s absolutely no reason to believe that one or both of those organizations won’t attack USA assets either around the world or here at home.
It’s comments and beliefs like this that will lead to another 9-11.
Vote Trump! America First! Ignore the rest of the world….
Chrissy says
Flagler Humane Society
I tried to adopt a kitten and they told me no. And that’s harsh being I’m a 52 year old that makes 35,000.00 a year. It didn’t end there, they basically told me I was a bad pet mom without even knowing me. I would have been very capable of taking one of those precious lives and giving it a very happy home. They almost even had me doubting myself. Shame on them.
Kennan says
We as a nation have let Benjamin Netanyahu cross every red line humanly possible.
Nathan, who has put his own people in danger. After almost a year of relentless killing in Gaza. Ironic, considering he says, he’s concerned about Israelis. No political goals other than getting rid of everyone in Gaza.
It’s true that the Biden administration has noted, Israel has not displayed a coherent strategy with any clear, political goals, but the US has a weakness and willingness to help kill Arabs with impunity.
The US will continue to let Israel cross whatever imaginary “red line” The Biden administration puts up. They will assume the position and continue to service Israel and continue to tell the press they are pressing for an even more imaginary. “Cease fire”.
The US will continue to funnel billions of dollars to the Israeli “Genocide Machine “, While simultaneously telling the world, they are trying to temper Netanyahu and the IDF attacks.
It’s better sometimes to look at the general truth for truth sake instead of splitting hairs to perpetrate lies to rationalize our own genocidal behavior.
The US is suffering and downgrading itself from every imaginable angle.
We are spending too much time worrying abou the “political canyon “ that separates this “crepes vs blood”Democratic and Republican parties that we are no longer looking at the country for country sake, or thinking globally.
What makes us look so bad is that we double down on what a” Star-spangled” awesome country we are, while we do the complete opposite of what we say, we will do both domestically and internationally. I’ve said it before! Maybe we need to fall as an empire so we can rise as a nation. So our real values can actually mirror our implied ones.
The next glaring issue is religion, yes, religion. Spirituality great! Organized religion, bad! The single, most massive cloud that has hung over the world for generations and generations. Groups trying to corner the market on the moral high ground. All for gods almighty approval.
Kennan says
Honestly, I’m just getting warmed up after all of the collective punishment being inflicted on Palestinians and having the audacity to call what they are doing to Gaza self-defense?
Anyone who believes the convenient lie That what Israel is doing is to read the world of Hamas is either severely Ignorant or an unbridled racist.
Benjamin Netanyahu never wanted a two states solution and said so on many occasions. Terrorism is a tactic and not a war. You fight a tactic with a counter tactic. The most advanced military man for man in the world is Israel. With billions of dollars flooding into Israel from the US for weapons, jets, and general aid, it would stand to reason we could get Hamas leaders with the help of the CIA, special forces, and pinpoint our attacks.
Benjamin Netanyahu saw an opportunity to collectively punish every civilian in Gaza. Destroy it all and get rid and displace everyone. Netanyahu turned the lights off and cut water supply. Your first hint that something very sinister is a foot.
Everybody condemns what happened on October 7, 2023, but under international law waging a war on a region that you are an occupier of is a war crime! You wanna play the numbers game? 1200 innocent Jews were killed at a music festival in Israel by Hamas. a war crime by any rubric. How can you then kill 50,000 civilians in Gaza, use Hamas as a convenient excuse. Bomb hospitals, schools, refugee camps, humanitarian aid, workers, Alex. All targeted by the way. Oh, as an added fact, we all know . … The vast majority of civilian deaths have been children. I could go on and on and.” Dog walk” Everyone of you with facts, but what’s the point? Everyone seems to be.
“ Brain dead”.
I personally found it very interesting that Israel had the unbelievable tacked and precision to plant a bomb in Ismael Haneya’s Guest house in Iran and kill him effectively, quelling, peace, talks, and practically killing negotiations. You can do that “ Pinpoint” Kind of assassination, but find it necessary to corporate bomb everyone in Gaza to get Hamas militants.
Back to the numbers game. I’ll make this simple for the” Simple minded”. It would take between 40 and 50 October 7 Attacks to reach the savage “ Overreach” Israel has inflicted on Gaza. That’s if we are talking about the body count that we know of. It’s far higher.
Now we find ourselves witnessing preemptive attacks on Lebanon. Sparked by another sophisticated wiring of cell phones and walkie-talkies that are conveniently killing civilians, as well as pre ported Hezzbollah Members.
A regional conflict in the Middle East is on the horizon. All because Netanyahu wants to stay out of jail. Pull the US into a conflict because Israel is given no boundaries by Biden and secretary Blinken.
This is both a shame and a sham. The US has rendered the UN. The international criminal court. The international court of Justice and really every human rights group useless because of their blind devotion to war criminals.
As an American with Syrian blood. With experience in the Middle East as well as family. I got skin in the game. I will speak for Pierre Tristam And say he knows what I mean because so does he.
Absolutely shameful.
Kennan says
Oh boy, guess I’m not done yet.
FEW QUICK NOTES
1.
A ceasefire is useless at this point. The only answer is to put sanctions on and stop giving money and weapons to Israel. No more. There will be blowback, but if we do this we will garner what will be peace in the Middle East and slow down if not stop the growth and development of future terrorist groups.
Understand 90% of Gaza’s are displaced.
2.
A two state solution is now impossible. There is 42 million tons of rubble in Gaza that will take 10 to 15 years just to clear.
jake says
Good, Hamas brought this on themselves, let them suffer.
Brian Riehle says
Amen…. Kennan !