By Charlie Hunt
The gerrymandering drama in Texas – and beyond – has continued to unfold after Democratic state legislators fled the state. The Democrats want to prevent the Republican-controlled government from enacting a mid-decade gerrymander aimed at giving Republicans several more seats in Congress.
The Texas GOP move was pushed by President Donald Trump, who’s aiming to ensure he has a GOP-controlled Congress to work with after the 2026 midterm elections.
Other Republican states such as Missouri and Ohio may also follow the Texas playbook; and Democratic states such as California and Illinois seem open to responding in kind.
But there are a few factors that make this process more complicated than just grabbing a few House seats. They may even make Republicans regret their hardball gerrymandering tactics, if the party ends up with districts that political scientists like me call “dummymandered.”
Democrats can finally fight back
Unlike at the federal level, where Democrats are almost completely shut out of power, Republicans are already facing potentially consequential retaliation for their gerrymandering attempts from Democratic leaders in other states.
Democrats in California, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, are pushing for a special election later this year, in which the voters could vote on new congressional maps in that state, aiming to balance out Democrats’ losses in Texas. If successful, these changes would take effect prior to next year’s midterm elections.
Other large Democratic-controlled states, such as Illinois and New York – led by Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Gov. Kathy Hochul, respectively – have also indicated openness to enacting their own new gerrymanders to pick up seats on the Democratic side.
New York and California both currently use nonpartisan redistricting commissions to draw their boundaries. But Hochul recently said she is “sick and tired of being pushed around” while other states refuse to adopt redistricting reforms and gerrymander to their full advantage. Hochul said she’d even be open to amending the state constitution to eliminate the nonpartisan redistricting commission.
It’s unclear whether these blue states will be successful in their efforts to fight fire with fire; but in the meantime, governors like Hochul and Pritzker have welcomed the protesting Democratic legislators from Texas, in many cases arranging for their housing during their self-imposed exile.
Dummymandering
Another possible problem for either party looking to gain some seats in this process stems from greediness.
In responding to Democrats’ continued absence from Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott threatened even more drastic gerrymanders. “If they don’t start showing up, I may start expanding,” Abbott said. “We may make it six or seven or eight new seats we’re going to be adding on the Republican side.”
But Abbott might think twice about this strategy.
Parties that gerrymander their states’ districts are drawing lines to maximize their own advantage, either in state legislatures or, in this case, congressional delegations.
When parties gerrymander districts, they don’t usually try to make them all as lopsided as possible for their own side. Instead, they try to make as many districts as possible that they are likely to win. They do this by spreading groups of supportive voters across several districts so they can help the party win more of these districts.
But sometimes the effort backfires: In trying to maximize their seats, a party spreads its voters too thin and fails to make some districts safe enough. These vulnerable districts can then flip to the other party in future elections, and the opposing party ends up winning more seats than expected.
This phenomenon, commonly referred to as “dummymandering,” has happened before. It even happened in Texas, where Republicans lost a large handful of poorly drawn state legislative districts in the Dallas suburbs in 2018, a strong year for Democrats nationwide.
With Democrats poised for a strong 2026 midterm election against an unpopular president, this is a lesson Republicans might need to pay attention to.
There’s not much left to gerrymander
One of the main reasons dummymandering happens is that there has been so much gerrymandering that there are few remaining districts competitive enough for a controlling party to pick off for themselves. This important development has unfolded for two big reasons.
First, in terms of gerrymandering, the low-hanging fruit is already picked over. States controlled by either Democrats or Republicans have already undertaken pretty egregious gerrymanders during previous regular redistricting processes, particularly following the 2010 and 2020 censuses.
Republicans have generally been more adept at the process, particularly in maximizing their seat shares in relatively competitive states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina that they happen to control.
But Democrats have also been successful in states such as Maryland, where only one Republican serves out of nine seats, despite the party winning 35% of the presidential vote in 2024. In Massachusetts, where Democrats hold all eight seats, Republicans won 37% of the presidential vote in 2024.
There’s also the fact that over the past half-century, “gerrymanderable” territory has become more difficult to find regardless of how you draw the boundaries. That’s because the voting electorate is more geographically sorted between the parties.
This means that Democratic and Republican voters are segregated from each other geographically, with Democrats tending toward big cities and suburbs, and Republicans occupying rural areas.
As a result, it’s become less geographically possible than ever to draw reasonable-looking districts that split up the other party’s voters in order to diminish the opponents’ ability to elect one of their own.
Regardless of how far either party is willing to go, today’s clash over Texas redistricting represents largely uncharted territory. Mid-decade redistricting does sometimes happen, either at the hands of legislatures or the courts, but not usually in such a brazen fashion.
And this time, the Texas attempt could spark chaos and a race to the bottom, where every state picks up the challenge and tries to rewrite their electoral maps – not in the usual once-a-decade manner, but whenever they’re unsatisfied with the odds in the next election.
Charlie Hunt is Associate Professor of Political Science at Boise State University.
Cisco says
the Democrats have been doing this for years, just look at the number of Republicans representatives they have and the % of votes casted for Trump in the election, especially Massachusett they have zero Republicans in the house. The Democrats just don’t like the other party using their playbook to hold on to power,duh!
Fernando Melendez says
The democrats from Texas are flagrantly disregarding their own constituents by not being there doing there jobs. And as for gerrymandering, the democrats have been doing it for ever, time to even things up. The democrats do not stand a chance in hell winning back the White House, or the midterm election after all that Trump has done to fix our country after Biden’s disastrous four years. My prediction is that democrats will lose for the next eight years or more. Texas democrats! Get back and do your jobs, which is what you were elected to do.
Pogo says
@Professor Hunt
… we may only hope. Hope is better than nothing — thank you.
P.S.
How does Hegseth pastor’s “good little submissive woman who doesn’t need to vote” figure in all this?
Wanted: Good woman to dig worms for fisherman’s bait pail; ability as outboard motor mechanic will be taken into account…
https://www.google.com/search?q=submissive+woman+who+doesn't+need+to+vote
The Realist says
“California and Illinois may be open to responding in kind…”. Whether you are a democrat, republican or an independent like me, just look at the district map of Illinois and you will see that the democrats have already done the exact thing they are complaining about in that state.
The dude says
You keep presenting articles, such as this, full of fallacy using logic and reason that simply doesn’t exist in MAGA… things like critical thinking, morals, ethics, right, wrong, and shame cannot be attributed to MAGA morons. They think as their demented orange dear leader tells them to, no more, no less.
They will not one day wake up and wonder what those gas ovens were used for, or feel any sense of shame, guilt or remorse for shoveling their neighbors in there.
They just wander the fevered swamps of Infowars, Vice President Loomer, and the My Pillow guy, pointing in any direction they’re told and bleating out any outrage they’re fed.
This is what we’re dealing with.
Dennis and Jimbo will be along shortly to prove my point.
JimboXYZ says
“You keep presenting articles, such as this, full of fallacy using logic and reason that simply doesn’t exist in MAGA… things like critical thinking, morals, ethics, right, wrong, and shame cannot be attributed to MAGA morons. They think as their demented orange dear leader tells them to, no more, no less.
They will not one day wake up and wonder what those gas ovens were used for, or feel any sense of shame, guilt or remorse for shoveling their neighbors in there.
They just wander the fevered swamps of Infowars, Vice President Loomer, and the My Pillow guy, pointing in any direction they’re told and bleating out any outrage they’re fed.
This is what we’re dealing with.
Dennis and Jimbo will be along shortly to prove my point.”
Your comment sounds like the Democrat party & the “Woke/DEI&B” mobements that are now passe. At least “MAGA” got only stronger as a movement. Look at what the last 4 years of Biden-Harris got anyone. Obviously some of the D’s that voted Biden-Harris were defectors to MAGA, if not outright no shows for the 2024 election. I’m still waiting to hear any of the Democrats tell us where the millions of voters of 2020 went for 2024 ? Trump got even more votes in 2024 than he did 2020 & 2016. Biden somehow had the most voters for any elected POTUS, yet they didn’t show up for Harris-Walz. Makes you wonder, in a aging population where more voters naturally happen for being 18+ voting eligible demographic. Don’t need Gerrymandering when the Democrats platform is smoke & mirrors they defected & elected Trump twice. We’re living quiet & desperate lives of Bidenomics with Trump tariffs. And we will be paying for Bidenomics for a long time coming. I’m on record that I didn’t think Trump could undo Biden for a better America. But the alternative was rewarding Biden-Harris-Walz with 4 more years of inflation & misery. It’s a broken economic system for both parties contributions. But the record stands, No Trump administration is in the running for “most devastating” administration. Biden made Carter’s worst ever in many’s lifetimes, pale in comparison. I can feel good about being able to say I never voted for Biden-Harris & this inflationary economics where numbers are fabricated for the sake of illogical & irrational ideas for greed & avarice. Supposedly 82+ million voted for that in 2020. They did this to the rest of the 74+ million that didn’t voted to stay the course in 2020. Why is it that MAGA is now 9 years solid & growing, yet BLM/Woke/DEI&B barely last a single term ? Maybe 2028, those Democrat movements du jour become Neo versions of failed concepts. If Trump eased inflation, that’s a win over what the Democrats gave us. Inflation is inflation, it was rampant under Biden-Harris.
Pogo says
@The dude
Amen.
The US Republican Party is industrial grade organized crime on steroids and more money than God Herself. The only way the bastards will fail and fall is the same way it’s always been; total collapse, destruction. The survivors start over; rinse, and repeat.
And so it goes.
Laurel says
The Republicans are not even bothering to hide the fact of cheating anymore. Right here, in Flagler County, Republicans put people on the ballot who weren’t running, just to skew the results.
The fact of the matter is, whether it’s Republicans or Democrats gerrymandering, the reason is the same: they don’t give a damn what the constituents want. Both sides are guilty, that’s very clear.
All districts should be redrawn using USGS. Then, rural areas can be separated from urban areas, done by nonpartisans. That’s it. Redistricting that looks like an earthworm run over by a truck is nothing more than selfish cheating, and is unfair to all of us.
The other clear message is that Trump does not care want We the People want. He wants his ballroom, jet, gold plated kitsch, bitcoins, get out of jail free cards, and almighty power over everyone and everything.
The dude says
I told you so.
Jimbo came running and claimed in this day of rising taxes and inflation, still high egg prices, super high grocery prices for that matter, the world on fire being ravaged by despots intent on killing as many as possible, record beef prices, unaffordable houses, and daily jobs being shed by the thousands or tens of thousands, as being just the best bestest days ever in the history of best days.
This is the mindset we’re dealing with. Unassailable with real facts or knowledge, just spoon fed pablum from the MAGA echo chambers as those feeding that echo chamber profit, while the rest of the world gets poorer.
Sherry says
Right On Dude! jimbo just couldn’t help himself. . . just like other Maga trolls! LOL! LOL! LOL!
Thank you Laurel! Your reasonable, logical, factual analyses and comments are always well attended by me. Unfortunately, the passionate core Maga members now have completely closed minds to each and every factual criticism of trump. They automatically label everything as TDS. . . as Fox has taught them to do. Their “critical thinking” ability (if they EVER had it) was likely lost many years ago. Thanks to their addiction solely to the media empire of far “Right Winged” Rupert Murdoch.
Sure wishing “something” would wake them from their Maga Stupor. Can’t imagine what that could be, though.
Sherry says
@cisco and fernando. . . please get educated. There is a difference between the “Redistricting” Texas is attempting and “Gerrymandering”. trump is blatantly trying to “fix” the next election regarding Congressional majorities.
“Redistricting” is only supposed to happen every 10 years after a national census is taken. The last census was in 2020. This excerpt from Time may help:
Jul 21, 2025 11:44 AM PT
Texas Republicans are poised to consider new districts in a special session after President Donald Trump called for the state to redraw its congressional map to allow for the GOP to pick up seats in the midterm elections in 2026.
Trump told reporters that there are several states in which he believes Republicans can redraw districts in order to pick up seats in Congress and keep a narrow majority.
“Texas would be the biggest one,” he said on July 16. “Just a very simple redrawing, we pick up five seats.”
Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott put redistricting on his special session agenda for Monday. Abbott said his decision was in light of a letter he received from the Department of Justice earlier this month. The letter alleges that four of the current districts were racial gerrymanders that violate the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, thus opening the door for redistricting as a whole to be decided.
Typically, states redraw their congressional district maps every ten years to accommodate shifts in population. But in many states, lawmakers have taken to changing the lines whenever they see it as politically advantageous to help their party gain an advantage.”
The fact that Trump and Texas Republicans are currently weighing their options of redistricting in the middle of a decade is non-traditional, but not completely unheard of. But the move has, unsurprisingly, raised concerns and discussions about gerrymandering.
Here is a link to the full article:
https://time.com/7304038/gerrymandering-partisan-racial-redistricting-trump-texas-republicans/
Laurel says
“The people of Georgia are angry. The people of the country are angry, and there’s nothing wrong with saying that, you know, that you’ve recalculated…” Trump said to Georgia official Raffensperger. “All I want to do is this: I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have… Fellas, I need 11,000 votes, give me a break.” Now he wants another “break,” for Texas to gerrymander five more chairs in the House, between censuses. Clearly, he does not give a damn what the people of this country wants.
Like Jim wrote here before, why does Trump need to cheat if he’s doing so well?
The Devil himself could not have picked a better candidate for his purpose.