By Mahad Darar
The U.S.- and U.K.-led strikes on the rebel Houthi group in Yemen represent a dramatic new turn in the Middle East conflict – one that could have implications throughout the region.
The attacks of Jan. 11, 2024, hit around 60 targets at 16 sites, according to the U.S. Air Force’s Mideast command, including in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, the main port of Hodeida and Saada, the birthplace of the Houthis in the country’s northwest.
The military action follows weeks of warning by the U.S. to the Houthis, ordering them to stop attacking commercial ships in the strategic strait of Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea. The Houthis – an armed militia backed by Iran that controls most of northern Yemen following a bitter near-decadelong civil war – have also launched missiles and drones toward Israel.
As an expert on Yemeni politics, I believe the U.S. attacks on the Houthis will have wide implications – not only for the Houthis and Yemen’s civil war, but also for the broader region where America maintains key allies. In short, the Houthis stand to gain politically from these U.S.-U.K. attacks as they support a narrative that the group has been cultivating: that they are freedom fighters fighting Western imperialism in the Muslim world.
For Houthis, a new purpose
The Israel-Gaza conflict has reinvigorated the Houthis – giving them a raison d’etre at a time when their status at home was diminishing.
By the time of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas militants in Israel, the Houthis’ long conflict with Saudi Arabia, which backs the Yemeni government ousted by the Houthis at the start of Yemen’s civil war in 2014, had quieted after an April 2022 cease-fire drastically reduced fighting.
Houthi missile strikes on Saudi cities ceased, and there were hopes that a truce could bring about a permanent end to Yemen’s brutal conflict.
With fewer external threats, domestic troubles that surfaced in Houthi-controlled areas – poverty, unpaid government salaries, crumbling infrastructure – led to growing disquiet over Houthi governance. Public support for the Houthis slowly eroded without an outside aggressor to blame; Houthi leaders could no longer justify the hardships in Yemen as a required sacrifice to resist foreign powers, namely Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.
But Israel’s attacks in Gaza have provided renewed purpose for Houthis. Aligning with the Palestinian cause has allowed Houthis to reassert their relevance and has reenergized their fighters and leadership.
By firing missiles toward Israel, the Houthis have portrayed themselves as the lone force in the Arab Peninsula standing up to Israel, unlike regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The militia is presenting to Yemenis and others in the region a different face than Arab governments that have, to date, been unwilling to take strong action against Israel.
In particular, Houthis are contrasting their worldview with that of Saudi Arabia, which prior to the October Hamas attack had been looking to normalize ties with Israel.
Houthi’s PR machine
The U.S. and U.K. strikes were, the governments of both countries say, in retaliation for persistent attacks by Houthis on international maritime vessels in the Red Sea and followed attempts at a diplomatic solution.
The aim is to “disrupt and degrade the Houthis’ capabilities,” according to U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
UK Ministry of Defence via Getty Images
But regardless of the intent or the damage caused to the Houthis militarily, the Western strikes may play into the group’s narrative, reinforcing the claim that they are fighting oppressive foreign enemies attacking Yemen. And this will only bolster the Houthis’ image among supporters.
Already, the Houthis have managed to rally domestic public support in the part of Yemen they control behind their actions since October 2023.
Dramatic seaborne raids and the taking hostage of ships’ crews have generated viral footage that taps into Northern Yemeni nationalism. Turning a captured vessel into a public attraction attracted more attention domestically.
Following the U.S.-U.K. strikes on Houthi targets, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree has said the group would expand its attacks in the Red Sea, saying any coalition attack on Yemen will prompt strikes on all shipping through the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects to the Arabian Sea at the southern end of the Red Sea.
Weaponizing Palestinian sympathies
Meanwhile, the Houthis have successfully managed to align the Palestinian cause with that of their own. Appeals through mosques in Yemen and cellphone text campaigns have raised donations for the Houthis by invoking Gaza’s plight.
The U.S.-U.K strikes may backfire for another reason, too: They evoke memories of Western military interventions in the Muslim and Arab world.
The Houthis will no doubt exploit this.
When U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin initially announced the formation of a 10-country coalition to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on Dec. 18, 2023, there were concerns over the lack of regional representation. Among countries in the Middle East and Muslim world, only Bahrain – home to the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and the U.S. 5th Fleet – joined.
The absence of key regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Djibouti – where the U.S. has its only military base in Africa – raised further doubts among observers about the coalition’s ability to effectively counter the Houthis.
Muslim-majority countries were no doubt hesitant to support the coalition because of the sensitivity of the Palestinian cause, which by then the Houthis had successfully aligned themselves with.
But the lack of regional support leaves the U.S. and its coalition allies in a challenging position. Rather than being seen as protectors of maritime security, the U.S. – rather than the Houthis – are vulnerable to being framed in the region as the aggressor and escalating party.
This perception could damage U.S. credibility in the area and potentially serve as a recruitment tool for terrorist organizations like al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and similar groups.
The U.S.’s military and diplomatic support for Israel throughout the current conflict also plays into skepticism in the region over the true objectives of the anti-Houthi missile strikes.
Reigniting civil war?
The Houthis’ renewed vigor and Western strikes on the group also have implications for Yemen’s civil war itself.
Since the truce between the two main protagonists in the conflict – Saudi Arabia and the Houthis – fighting between the Houthis and other groups in Yemen, such as the Southern Transitional Council, the Yemen Transitional Government and the National Resistance, has reached a deadlock.
Each group controls different parts of Yemen, and all seem to have accepted this deadlock.
But the U.S.-U.K. strikes put Houthi opponents in a difficult position. They will be hesitant to openly support Western intervention in Yemen or blame the Houthis for supporting Palestinans. There remains widespread sympathy for Gazans in Yemen – something that could give Houthis an opportunity to gain support in areas not under their control.
The Yemeni Transitional Government issued a statement following the U.S.-U.K. strikes that shows the predicament facing Houthi rivals. While blaming the Houthis’ “terrorist attacks” for “dragging the country into a military confrontation,” they also clearly reaffirmed support for Palestinians against “brutal Israeli aggression.”
While Houthi rivals will likely continue this balancing act, the Houthis face no such constraints – they can freely exploit the attacks to rally more support and gain a strategic advantage over their local rivals.
An emboldened Houthi group might also be less likely to accept the current status quo in Yemen and seize the moment to push for more control – potentially reigniting a civil war that had looked to be on the wane.
The Houthis thrive on foreign aggression to consolidate their power. Without this external conflict as a justification, the shortcomings of the Houthis’ political management become apparent, undermining their governance. During the civil war, Houthis were able to portray themselves as the defender of Yemen against Saudi influence. Now they can add U.S. and U.K. interference to the mix.
Mahad Darar is a doctoral candidate in Political Science at Colorado State University.
The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive.
If Iran could vote we know who for... says
Does anyone remember in 1980 when Reagan became President? Iran released every hostage immediately, after weak Carter lost.
It will be the same when Trump resumes Power.
Iran makes its money from Obama/Biden and 4 major oil field refineries.
Easy targets for our B2 Bomber program.
Watch the fireworks Liberals and Let Trump show the World how it is done once when America is Powerful again.
I for one am done with Biden’s Stiff Leg syndrome Dementia weakness.
Pierre Tristam says
Dementia is not funny of course, not even when the commenter forgets that Reagan suffered from it in his second disastrous term.
DaleL says
Actually Reagan’s second term was perhaps his best. Inflation dropped to 3.5% by 1985 and unemployment dropped to 5% in 1988. The Soviet Union collapsed just a little over two years after he left office.
As to Iran and the hostages, Iran released the hostages, but later the illegal Iran-Contra affair came to light. Beginning the same year as Reagan took office in 1981 to 1986, Reagan administration officials secretly enabled the illegal sale of arms to Iran.
Ronald Reagan was a decent man and who loved our country. The same cannot be written or said honestly about grifter trump.
Good point, a rebuttle? says
I cannot recall Making fun of Biden’s Dementia, It is actually quite sad, I feel sorry for him that he cannot rest. Both my maternal grandparents suffered horribly for several years before their deaths, but neither one was President of the God Damned United States of America and running again either?!? And his controllers are running this same horse again knowing Damn well where his dementia is at, It is Sick. The horse deserves his pasture to live out his days Let him eat Ice cream, sit in his Chevy at his beach house with some (but not all) of the Grand kids for Christ’s sakes, yikes.
Pierre Tristam says
I don’t dispute any of this, and join you in sympathy, having experienced same with both my parents–my mother for 10 years. But consider who we’re comparing Biden to. Trump may be a bit (a bit) more on the ball, but his bluster covers up a lot of his own mental problems, and they are many. There’s simply no comparison. I mean, even Carter now at Hospice would be a better choice than Trump, if we’re a little concerned about our institutions. But it’s true that Biden should have gotten out of the way and pledged to run for only one term to start with. Even if he were to do so now, Democrats are in the wilderness. They have no alternative plan.
DaleL says
Biden does not seem to have dementia.
He does have a speech impediment which seems to be aggravated by his advanced age. “God’s gift to me was my stuttering,” Biden once said.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/joe-biden-stutter/
https://www.stutteringhelp.org/content/president-joe-biden
Deborah Coffey says
It is not a fact that Joe Biden has dementia. Period. So, don’t waste your time feeling sad for him. I suppose you didn’t see the 2022 presidential ranking by American historians and political scientists? Biden was ranked 19th and Trump…well, 43rd. Biden’s accomplishments are remarkable and this survey was done after he was in office only one year. Here it is: https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/presidents-ranked-worst-best/4/
Bill C says
So you’d prefer a dictatorship? See how angry and unhappy you would be then.
JimboXYZ says
They need to be handled like Barbary Coast Pirates, attacks on Cargo ships are never tolerated. Sink their warships and take no survivors from the seas that aren’t from Cargo ships they attacked. They’ll understand that much when they become shark bait ? Biden Wars.
Dennis C Rathsam says
Free trade is being held up in the Red Sea. There is a shipping container shortage, now that the trade route has be compramised. Prices will now start to rise again. All because of the weakness of our president, it took him 3 1/2 years to revert back to the wisdom of president TRUMP, who solved the Houthi problem years ago. Biden has now called them a terrorist group, after many many strikes of ships, & US forces. TRUMP called them what they were, Biden, let them run free, to cause damage in the Middle East. With the help of Iran ( who supply the Houthi,s with weapons) some weapons came from what Biden left in Afganistan. They are using our weapons to attack the ships, & stop trade. When will Biden grow the balls to stop these rebels in thier tracks? The more Biden does nothing the more attacks come, then when Biden shoots back, its too little too late and not enough destruction. The time is now to wipe these terrorists off the face of the earth, just like IDF is doing in Gaza. We are supposed to be the leader of the free world, we always took care of these problems, we always made the world a safer place. What the hell happened?
TREEMAN says
What happened? Appeasement Biden HAPPENED!!!!
Pogo says
@Mahad Darar
As stated
https://braveneweurope.com/tag/mahad-darar
Just because you don’t do anything useful, it doesn’t mean you have to add to the problems.
Directly related
https://www.google.com/search?q=political+spoiler
Just for the trolls — from assholes to zebras…
https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+kissing+dictator+on+mouth
DaleL says
Perhaps I missed it in Mahad Darar’s opinion piece, but I couldn’t find a recommendation on what the USA and our allies should do with respect to the Houthis. It is rather poor advice to only tell us what not to do, without telling us what to do.
Thanks to mr. trump, the Houthis have acquired some US weapons from Afghanistan. It was mr. trump that “negotiated” the US withdraw from Afghanistan without a workable plan. The Taliban in Afghanistan are ondoubtably holding on to the best weapons that they got from the Afghan army when it collapsed.
Compared with other regional conflicts, this is a rather minor conflict.
jake says
“President Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan led to OVER $7 BILLION in U.S. military equipment is now in the hands of the Taliban. The deadliest attack on Americans in Afghanistan since August 2011 occurred because of Biden’s failed leadership.”
“This was a purely political decision that ignored both the situation on the ground and advances in intra-Afghan peace talks. As predicted, when the U.S. hastily evacuated our troops from the country, chaos ensued and the Taliban captured Kabul in just 10 days. The consequences were grave.”
Note the “purely political decision”. This was on Biden’s watch.
Bill C says
“WASHINGTON (AP) — A U.S. review led by the National Security Council of the chaotic 2021 withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan largely lays the blame on former President Donald Trump, saying President Joe Biden was “severely constrained” by the decisions of his predecessor.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-review-of-chaotic-afghanistan-withdrawal-blames-trump
DaleL says
The facts are different from your narrative, which I assume was obtained from Faux News.
“The Trump administration in February 2020 negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that excluded the Afghan government, freed 5,000 imprisoned Taliban soldiers and set a date certain of May 1, 2021, for the final withdrawal.
And the Trump administration kept to the pact, reducing U.S. troop levels from about 13,000 to 2,500, even though the Taliban continued to attack Afghan government forces and welcomed al-Qaeda terrorists into the Taliban leadership.”
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
JW says
Mahad Darrar says it all:
The Houthis respond to the never ending conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Don’t forget the conflict has a long history; it did not start on October 7 last year as many Americans with a short memory and lack of world history knowledge think.
Give the Palestinians the state they deserve and the Houthis will stop their aggression and I just heard that the Saudis are now willing to compromise with the Israelis. The price for Israel is that they give the Palestinians the country they were promised based on previous agreements. It is the Israelis who are, with their ultra conservative and religious government, unable/unwilling to do that at this time. But time will tell it is the only solution and the US knows that and Biden has clearly indicated the two state goal. On top of that it will most likely resolve most to problems in the Middle East. Iran will accept it. The only challenge will be RELIGION. By the way China has already been trying to build a bridge between the Sunnis and the Shia’s through Iran and Saudi.
The West was not very pleased with that!
The US wants to control this game because of Israel. But they have always been taking Israel’s side (helped by the AIPAC lobby) instead of looking for a broader compromise for the region. Our military interference in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria has been a failure.
So it’s time to wake up but that will require a strong, non-military, DIPLOMATIC strategy including managing weapon support to Israel. And don’t forget the ultimate goal is PEACE!
The dude says
20th century thinking applied to 21st century problems just won’t work… If Iran, Jimbo and Dennis are proof of that.
Speaking of dementia and Iran, well of course they released the hostages after Reagan was elected, that was part of their weapons deal with the traitorous Regan/Bush campaign and incoming officials like Ollie North.
Ray W. says
The most recent reporting I have read on the issue of the timing of the release of the American hostages held by the Iranian government covered the following subjects:
Iran was engaged in a brutal war with Iraq; it was losing the struggle.
The flow of crude oil out of the region was impacted by the war.
President Carter had forbidden the sale of arms to Iran.
Israel wanted to sell arms to Iran.
Emissaries from the Reagan election committee travelled to the Middle East, where they let it be known to a select few government officials in other nations that if Iran would hold the Americans hostage until after the 1980 election, America would allow the sale of arms to Iran if Reagan won the election.
Iran released our hostage on the same day that Reagan took office.
Israel immediately began selling arms to Iran.
Eventually, Americans began selling arms to Iran.
The Reagan administration hid the sale of arms to Iran until the Iran-Contra issue blew up in their faces.
The reporting concluded that there was insufficient evidence to prove that Reagan actually knew what members of his reelection committee were doing.
Much of the reporting was based on statements made by a lawyer who had accompanied a member of Reagan’s reelection committee. The lawyer had passed away, so there was no way to corroborate the reporting.
I have no idea what the actual truth was. Did Iran agree to hold our hostages until Reagan took office? Who knows. The only provable fact on that point is that Iran announced the release of our citizens on the day Reagan took office and that Israel and eventually individual Americans began selling arms to Iran.
Bill C says
You are using the “beyond a reasonable doubt” test. The “preponderance of the evidence” test is more appropriate. If it quacks like a duck…